Tag: Vance Worley

Log jog

I finalized the Start Log for 2012.

I think there’s some interesting stuff there that reminds a lot about what went wrong for the Phillies in 2012.

Looking at the blue band in the middle and starting at the top, we see the team’s record by starting pitcher. Some highlights:

  • The Phillies went 14-11 in Halladay’s starts in 2012. Coming into the season, in Halladay’s two years with the Phils the team was 46-19 in the games he started.
  • 21-10 in games started by Hamels, by far the best mark of any pitcher on the team. The Phils finished the year 81-81, so that means they were 60-71 when someone other than Hamels started. That’s a little remarkable given that two of the team’s other starters were Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay.
  • In 2011, the Phillies won 15 or more games in the starts made by four different pitchers (24-8 under Halladay, 18-13 Hamels, 22-10 Lee and 16-5 Worley). In 2012, the team only won 15 or more games in the starts made by Hamels.
  • The Phillies went 23-32 when Lee or Worley started. They were 38-15 in starts by that duo in 2011 (22-10 when Lee started and 16-5 when Worley started). In 2011, the Phillies had a better record in Worley’s 21 starts (16-5 for a .762 winning percentage) than they did in Halladay’s starts (24-8, .750).
  • Despite a nice year from Kendrick, the team was still just 11-14 in the games he started. The Phillies went 1-9 in the first ten games in which Kendrick appeared in 2012 — he started five of those games and appeared in relief in the other five. Over the last two season the Phils are 30-41 in games in which Kendrick appeared and 18-22 in the 40 games that he started.
  • 11-9 in the Blanton starts. The Blanton era ends in Philly with good results for the team. He made exactly 100 starts for the Phils between 2008 and 2012 with the Phillies going 58-42 in the games that he started. Since 2008, the Phillies have won about as many games that were started by Blanton (58) as they have games started by Halladay (60). Blanton has made 100 starts for the Phils over the last five seasons while Halladay has made 90. Hamels is the only pitcher who has started more games that the Phillies won over the past five season — they are 92-68 in games started by Hamels since the beginning of ’08.

The Phillies have signed 37-year-old right-handed pitcher Rodrigo Lopez to a minor league deal. Lopez made seven appearances with the Phillies in 2009, ending the year with a 5.70 ERA. He had a 3.09 ERA with a 1.37 ratio through his first four starts and took a 3.99 ERA into his final appearance of the season on August 9. Lopez allowed six runs in two-thirds of an inning in that game, which was also memorable because Shane Victorino was ejected for arguing balls and strikes while he was in center field with the other team batting. Lopez will try to make the team in spring training as an NRI.

This mailbag from the Phillies web site mentions Humberto Quintero and Zach Miner as top candidates to make the team to start the year among the non-roster invitees. I will be surprised if Miner makes the team to start the year and surprised if Qunitero does not. The same article suggests the possibility of bringing Delmon Young to the Phillies and mentions his “baggage” as one of the reasons that might be difficult. Another is he is a bad defensive outfielder and has had two bad years offensively in a row. The mailbag also guesses that Cloyd will start the year in Triple-A.

This article suggests that the Phillies could easily be in rebuilding mode by July. The Phils would have a real tough time rebuilding if they weren’t able to trade Howard, Utley and Halladay. I would guess they would have some difficulty trading Howard at this point unless they were willing to pay a whole lot of his salary.


And not just that — Vance Worley never mistook Chase Utley and Ryan Howard for his own personal pinata

It appears that the Phillies have reorganized their rotation in recent weeks, outing 25-year-old-righty Vance Worley and inning 28-year-old lefty John Lannan.

So who’s better — Lannan or Worley? It’s hard to know who will fare better in 2013, and the issue is complicated because Lannan is (almost exactly) three years older, but it’s hard to make the case that Lannan has been better than Worley in the time they’ve spent in the majors.

Here are some of their numbers for their careers, including Lannan’s combined numbers through his age 25 season (Worley just finished his age 25 season):

Age

IP

ERA

Rat

bWAR

fWAR

H/9

BB/9

HR/9

SO/9

Worley ’10

23

13

1.38

0.82

0.5

0.2

5.5

2.8

0.7

8.3

Worley ’11

24

131.7

3.01

1.23

3.2

2.4

7.9

3.1

0.7

8.1

Worley ’12

25

133

4.20

1.51

0.7

1.9

10.4

3.2

0.8

7.2

Total

-

277.7

3.50

1.35

4.4

4.5

9.0

3.1

0.7

7.7

Age

IP

ERA

Rat

bWAR

fWAR

H/9

BB/9

HR/9

SO/9

Lannan ’07

22

34.7

4.15

1.53

0.4

0.0

9.3

4.4

0.8

2.6

Lannan ’08

23

182

3.91

134

2.5

1.2

8.5

3.6

1.1

5.8

Lannan ’09

24

206.3

3.88

1.35

3.1

1.4

9.2

3.0

1.0

3.9

Lannan ’10

25

143.3

4.65

1.56

-0.1

1.2

11.0

3.1

0.9

4.5

Thru 25

-

566.3

4.10

1.41

5.9

3.8

9.4

3.3

1.0

4.6

Lannan ’11

26

184.7

3.70

1.46

0.8

1.3

9.5

3.7

0.7

5.2

Lannan ’12

27

32.7

4.13

1.44

0.3

0.5

9.1

3.9

0.0

4.7

Total

-

783.7

4.01

1.42

7.0

5.7

9.4

3.4

0.9

4.7

Through their age 25 seasons, Lannan had thrown far more innings in the majors than Worley. He had thrown 566 1/3 innings through the end of the 2010 season while Worley has still thrown just 277 2/3 for his career.

In just about every other way, though, Worley has been better. Through their age 25 seasons, Worley has a better ERA, has thrown to a lower ratio, allowing fewer hits, walks and home runs per nine innings while striking out batters at a higher rate. All of those things are also true if you compare the career numbers of the two.

Worley has also had the best year by WAR. Using both Baseball-Reference and FanGraph’s calculations of WAR, the best season either of the two has had to date is Worley’s 2011 performance. On the other hand, Lannan’s 2009 was almost as good and Lannan has had two very good seasons, 2008 and 2009, while Worley has only had one.

Notably, Lannan’s two best seasons came before his age 25 year. Over the last three years, he’s started 64 games and thrown to a 4.12 ERA with a 1.50 ratio, allowing 402 hits in 360 innings while opponents have hit .284 against him. The 4.12 ERA and 1.50 ratio for Lannan over the last three seasons are pretty similar to the 4.20 ERA and 1.51 ratio that Worley put up in his worrisome 2012 season.

Coming up in the same division, Worley and Lannan each spent time in the Double-A Eastern League and Triple-A International League. Here’s what the two have done in each of those leagues:

Ages IP ERA Ratio H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9
Lannan AA 22 and 25 76.7 3.76 1.37 9.4 0.6 2.9 5.6
Worley AA 21 and 22 266 4.43 1.36 9.4 0.9 2.9 6.2
Lannan AAA 22 and 27 186.7 3.76 1.37 9.4 0.8 3.0 5.1
Worley AAA 22 and 23 96 3.00 1.14 8.2 0.8 2.1 8.1

They have very similar numbers at Double-A with Lannan posting a better ERA. Lannan has thrown more than twice as many innings in the Triple-A Eastern League, but Worley’s numbers are significantly better as he has allowed fewer hits and walks while striking out batters at a higher rate.

The biggest question as we look towards 2013 and beyond is whether you think Worley’s enormous hit rate in 2012 was a fluke or not. He has close to no chance of being successful in the long run with opponents hitting .296 against him. He was also victimized by one of the highest rates of BABIP of all pitchers in baseball.

Todd Zolecki suggests that trading for a player like Vernon Wells or Alfonso Soriano might make sense for the Phillies if they don’t sign Cody Ross here.

Baseball America’s Top Ten Prospects for the Phillies was released with 21-year-old lefty Jesse Biddle at the top of the list.


Vance out of his trance

Back to bWAR and how the Phillies pitching overall might possibly improve in 2013 shortly. Looking back at yesterday’s post, though, the thing that caught my eye the most looking at the data was Vance Worley’s 1.51 ratio in his 23 starts with the Phillies.

That’s awful.

In 2011, Worley went 11-3 with a 3.01 ERA and a 1.23 ratio in 131 2/3 innings for the Phils. He made 25 appearances and 21 of those were starts. Last year he made 23 appearances, all starts, throwing to a 4.20 ERA with a 1.51 ratio.

Ratio is just hits plus walks over innings pitched, so given that his ratio went from 1.23 to 1.51 from 2011 to 2012, either his rate of giving up hits or walks must have gone up dramatically.

One of them did. Here’s his percentage of batters faced who got a hit or a walk in 2011 and 2012:

Year % H % BB
2011 21.0 8.3
2012 26.1 8.0

Worley faced 553 batters in 2011 and 590 in 2012. His walk rate actually went down in 2012 as he walked just 8.0% of the batters he faced. The hits were way up as he allowed hits to 26.1% of the hitters he faced after allowing hits to just 21.0% of hitters in 2011.

Even down from his ’11 mark, Worley’s walk rate of 8.0% was high relative to the rest of the pitchers who started games for the Phillies in 2012. Higher than Hamels (6.0%), Lee (3.3%), Kendrick (7.3%), Halladay (5.6%), Blanton (3.2%), Cloyd (5.1%) and Valdes (4.4%). Higher than everyone but Rosenberg — BJ Rosenberg started one game for the Phillies in 2012 and ended the year with a walk rate of 13.2% (he walked 14 in 25 innings, which is a candidate for stuff to work on going forward).

So Worley’s walk rate was high, at least compared to the other starters for the Phillies. But lowering his walk rate in 2012 didn’t make his ratio go up. It was all of the hits.

Opponents hit .237 against Worley in 2011. They hit .296 against him in 2012. He dominated left-handed hitters in 2011, holding them to a paltry 201/271/299 line. In 2012, lefties hit a less paltry 312/386/462 against him. Righties fared remarkably similarly against him in both years, hitting 272/336/439 against him in 2011 and 280/331/433 in 2012.

Worley had a stunning year in 2011, pitching extremely well in the minors and then extremely well with the Phillies.

Here are his minor and major league numbers combined for hits allowed per nine innings for the years before 2011, 2011 itself and 2012:

Innings H per 9
Before 2011 393 1/3 8.97
2011 182 1/3 7.75
2012 133 10.42
Total 708 2/3 8.93

So clearly he had much more success in preventing hits in 2011 than he had had in the years before or has had since.

For his career, he’s thrown a lot more innings in the minors than in the majors. In his 431 innings in the minors, about 78% of which have come below Triple-A, he has allowed 8.9 hits per nine innings. That includes his 2011 season, when he was fantastic in the minors at preventing hits (7.3 per nine) over 50 2/3 frames. Excluding 2011, over his career he’s allowed 9.09 hits per nine innings in the minors. In 2011, he spent most of the year in the majors and allowed 7.75 hits per nine innings.

And again, in 2011 and 2012, righties posted a nearly identical line against him. Lefties killed him in 2012 and he was unusually fantastic against him in 2011.

So one could make the argument that 2011 was simply a fluke in which Worley allowed way fewer hits than we should expect him to allow in the future.

That’s pretty close to what I believe.

I think there’s a lot of hope out there for people who don’t believe that, though, starting with his outrageous BABIP in 2012.

During 2012, Worley threw 133 innings with a ridiculous batting average for balls in play of .340. Across both leagues, there were 111 pitchers who threw 130 or more innings. Of those 111, only one, Detroit’s Rick Porcello, had a BABIP worse than Worley’s .340. Porcello threw 176 1/3 innings in 2012 with a BABIP of .344.

Beyond that, Worley was really solid in his first 12 starts of the season, throwing to a 2.92 ERA with a 1.26 ratio. His BABIP over those 12 starts was .297. Things went nuts after that, though. Over his last 11 starts, Worley threw to a 5.80 ERA with a 1.83 ratio. Opponents hit .350 against him, with an enormous BABIP of .404. Worley didn’t walk a lot of people in those games and he didn’t give up a lot of home runs. He just allowed a ton of hits.

A quick trip to Worley’s page on FanGraphs seemingly reveals more good news about 2012. His ground ball percentage was up in 2012 relative to 2011. He saw more of his fly balls go for home runs in 2012 than he did in 2011, which could help explain why his numbers dropped overall. His FIP was not terrible, notably better than Kendrick’s despite Kendrick’s better numbers using more traditional stats.

So maybe he really did just get extremely unlucky in 2012.

Maybe not, too.

This suggests that the Phillies are in serious talks with Texas about acquiring Michael Young.

This suggests that Texas might pay more than half of the $16 million that Young is owed in 2013.

This suggests that Schwimer might be the reliever the Phillies would be most willing to part with in a deal for Young.

After being bad defensively at third for three straight years, Young advanced to atrocious in 2012 in limited time. He played just 215 innings at the hot corner last season. Overall, he posted a -2.4 WAR as calculated by Baseball-Reference for the season in 2012 and a -1.4 WAR as calculated by FanGraphs.

This suggests the Phillies have a five-man list for center field that includes Bourn, Hamilton, Curtis Granderson, Ben Revere and Dexter Fowler.

Of those, Hamilton, Granderson and Fowler would be terrible defensive players in center.

This suggests Hamilton is very close to going to Seattle.

This suggests that Nate Schierholtz has agreed to a one-year, $2.25 million deal with the Cubs.

The Rule 5 Draft started this morning at 10 AM. Look for the Phillies to pick up a starting third baseman, a starting center fielder and an eighth inning guy. Just kidding. But not as much as I wish I was.

Update: The Phillies traded Worley and Trevor May to the Twins for Ben Revere.


The votes aren’t all counted yet, but I think we can agree that Adam Eaton was not the answer

Here’s the Baseball-Reference calculated combined WAR for pitchers who have made at least ten starts for the team over the past five seasons:

Pitcher GS # Relief appearances WAR WAR/GS
Halladay 90 0 17.6 .196
Lee 74 0 13.5 .182
Happ 30 16 5.0 .167
Oswalt 35 1 5.2 .149
Hamels 160 1 21.4 .134
Worley 46 7 4.4 .096
Moyer 77 5 2.7 .035
Blanton 100 5 2.5 .025
Myers 40 8 0.8 .020
Kendrick 103 41 1.7 .017
Eaton 19 2 -1.2 -.063

Important to remember is that the WAR calculation includes games pitched in relief. So, for example, the WAR for Kendrick over the last five seasons includes his 41 appearances out of the bullpen. His .017 for WAR/GS is his total WAR in all appearances divided by the number of games he started (not the total number of games in which he pitched).

The 11 pitchers above combined to make 774 of the 810 starts for the Phillies over the last five seasons. Not appearing on the list are guys who made fewer than ten starts, including Pedro Martinez (9), Chan Ho Park (7), Tyler Cloyd (6), Rodrigo Lopez (5), Antonio Bastardo (5), Raul Valdes (1), Andrew Carpenter (1), Nelson Figueroa (1) and BJ Rosenberg (1). Those 36 total starts plus the 774 for the 11 guys above gets you to 810.

Hamels is the guy who has made the most starts for the Phillies over the past five years with 160. And he’s been very good. After that, though, there are two guys in Blanton and Kendrick who have gotten a ton of starts over the past five seasons without being very good.

Kendrick is second in starts over the last five seasons with 103. His best year for WAR was 2007 (which doesn’t count for the table above as it was more than five years ago). In 2007, Kendrick made 20 appearances for the Phillies, all starts, going 10-4 with a 3.87 and putting up a WAR of 2.1. Kendrick was terrible in 2008 and finished the year with a -1.7 WAR. In the four years since his combined WAR has been just 3.4 — 3.4 + (-1.7) = 1.7, his mark for the past five years combined.

Blanton has made 105 appearances over the last five years for the Phillies, including 100 starts (more than anyone but Kendrick or Hamels). In the five seasons that Blanton pitched all or part of the year with the Phillies, he had a Baseball-Reference calculated WAR better than 0.1 only once. His best year with the Phillies was 2009 — he made 31 starts that year with a 4.05 ERA and a 1.32 ratio, posting a 2.4 WAR for the season. He had a -0.2 WAR in 29 appearances with the Phillies in 2010 and a -0.1 WAR in 21 appearances with them in 2012. He threw just 41 1/3 innings in 2011, all with the Phils, and put up a 0.0 WAR for that season.

The point here is that Blanton and Kendrick have pitched a lot for the Phillies over the past five years, making about as many starts (203) as Halladay, Lee and Worley (210). Overall, they’ve made about 25.1% of the starts for the Phillies over the past five seasons. And they haven’t been very good.

And while Blanton doesn’t have much of a chance to be not very good for the Phillies again in 2013, Kendrick does.

Gone also from the mix of the last five years are Happ and Oswalt. Both of those pitchers didn’t pitch a ton for the Phillies over the past five years, but put up good numbers overall in their time with the team.

Happ’s 4.83 ERA since he left the Phillies makes it easy to forget that he was great for the Phillies in 2009, going 12-4 with a 2.93 ERA and a 1.23 ratio in his 35 appearances (23 starts). He led the team in WAR for pitchers that year at 4.0. Hamels made 32 starts for the Phillies in ’09, finishing the year with a WAR of 1.7.

Oswalt threw to a 2.96 ERA in 36 appearances (35 starts) with the Phils between 2010 and 2011. He appeared in just 13 games for the Phillies in 2010 (12 starts), but managed to post a WAR of 3.2, third best on the staff behind Halladay and Hamels.

This suggests Josh Hamilton wants seven years, $175 million.

Amaro mentions Adam Morgan favorably in this article. Morgan is a 22-year-old lefty the Phillies took in the third round of the 2011 draft. He made 27 appearances between Clearwater and Reading in 2012, 26 of which were starts, throwing to a 3.35 ERA with a 1.11 ratio and striking out 169 in 158 2/3 innings.


What’s whatever the opposite of the matter is here?

The Phillies went 45-57 in their first 102 games this year before trading two of their better hitters and replacing them with lesser offensive players. After they did, the team took off, going 21-14 in their 35 games since the deals sent Victorino and Pence packing.

So what’s going on?

What’s going on is that since the Phillies traded Victorino and Pence, the offense has gotten worse. Just like you would expect. But. The pitching has gotten enormously better. Enough better to offset the offensive dropoff and carry the team.

Here’s a look at some of the numbers since the Phillies traded Victorino and Pence:

W-L RS/Gm RA/Gm SP ERA SP Ratio RP ERA RP Ratio
Thru 7/29 45-57 4.20 4.56 4.07 1.24 4.53 1.38
After 7/29 21-14 4.09 3.51 3.02 1.15 4.08 1.14
Total 66-71 4.17 4.29 3.80 1.22 4.42 1.32

The Phillies scored 4.20 runs per game before they traded Victorino and Pence. In the games they’ve played since they traded them, they’ve scored 4.09 runs per game.

The Phillies were 12th in the NL in runs scored in August and went 17-12. They went 17-12 not because they were a good offensive team, but because they were fourth in the league in runs allowed.

In the games that the Phillies played before trading Victorino and Pence, they allowed an average of 4.56 runs per game. Since they traded that duo, they’ve cut more than a run off of that. They’ve allowed 3.51 runs per game in the 35 games they’ve played since Victorino and Pence left. Going into today’s games, the Nationals were the NL team that had allowed the fewest runs per game in 2012 with 3.56 per game.

So 3.51 per game is impressive.

The bullpen has been better over the past 35 games than they were over the first 102, dropping more than half a run off of their ERA while their ratio has plummeted. Remember that they were terrible for a long time there, though, and the 4.08 ERA they’ve thrown to in the last 35 games isn’t exactly fantastic. If the Phillie bullpen had thrown to a 4.08 ERA for the entire year, that would be eleventh-best in the NL. As it is, their 4.42 bullpen ERA overall is twelfth-best.

The improvement in preventing runs has a lot more to do with the starting pitching than it does the relievers. Two points on what the relievers have done over the past 35 games, though, as they have thrown to a very impressive 1.14 ratio:

  • Over the last 35 games, the relievers have allowed just 59 hits in 86 innings. That’s an amazingly low hit rate of 6.17 hits per nine innings. Going into today’s games, Cincinnati’s bullpen had the lowest rate of hits allowed per nine innings for the season in the league at 7.27.
  • They have walked a ton of hitters in the same 35 games — 39 in 86 innings. That’s a walk rate of 4.08 per nine innings. Going into today’s games, only three NL teams had seen their relievers walk more than four batters per nine. The Dodgers had walked 4.07 per nine, the Brewers 4.18 and the Cubs 4.56 (Chicago relievers had walked 201 hitters in 396 2/3 innings). Here’s the list of Phillie relievers with a walk rate of 4.19 per nine or worse for the season: Schwimer, Sanches, Horst, Aumont, Bastardo, Stutes, Diekman, Rosenberg, Lindblom, De Fratus. Those ten pitchers have combined to throw 165 1/3 innings for the Phillies this year in which they have allowed 96 walks. That’s a walk rate of 5.23 per nine.

Again, the improvement overall in preventing runs has a lot more to do with what the starters have done than what the relievers have. The starters throw more than 70% of the innings for one thing, so even if the improvement of each of the groups had been about the same, the impact of the improvement by the starters would be much greater.

But the starters have improved more in the past 35 games than the relievers.

Here’s a look at what the guys in the rotation did before and after the trades of Victorino and Pence:

GS

IP

H

R

ER

BB

K

ERA

Ratio

Hamels

20

138.67

121

56

51

39

138

3.31

1.15

Blanton

20

132.67

139

73

67

18

115

4.55

1.18

Lee

17

118.33

119

53

52

23

112

3.95

1.20

thru 7/29

Worley

17

102.00

109

49

44

36

91

3.88

1.42

Halladay

14

89.33

88

43

43

16

72

4.33

1.16

Kendrick

13

75.33

82

42

38

25

55

4.54

1.42

Valdes

1

2.00

2

3

3

2

2

13.50

2.00

Total

102

658.33

660

319

298

159

585

4.07

1.24

GS

IP

H

R

ER

BB

K

ERA

Ratio

Halladay

7

48.00

43

16

16

9

37

3.00

1.08

Lee

7

50.33

49

16

14

3

49

2.50

1.03

Kendrick

7

42.67

37

15

14

7

28

2.95

1.03

after 7/29

Hamels

6

44.67

39

12

11

8

40

2.22

1.05

Worley

6

31.00

45

20

18

11

16

5.23

1.81

Cloyd

2

13.00

11

4

4

2

14

2.77

1.00

Total

35

229.67

224

83

77

40

184

3.02

1.15

Over the first 102 games of the season, Hamels was the only pitcher on the team who started at least one game for the Phillies and threw to an ERA under 3.88. Over the last 35 games, the rotation as a group has thrown to a 3.02 ERA.

Worley hasn’t been good in his six starts since the Phillies traded away Victorino and Pence. In the 29 starts not made by Worley since the trades, though, the rotation has a 2.67 ERA with a 1.05 ratio — every one of the five guys who has started at least one of those games has been very good. That group includes Halladay, Hamels, Lee and, more surprisingly, Kendrick and Cloyd.

The Phillies are going to win a huge percentage of their games in which their starters throw to the 3.02 ERA and a 1.15 ratio like they have since the trade. The Nationals have the best rotation in the NL in 2012 — they’ve thrown to 3.25 ERA for the year with a 1.17 ratio. In 2011, you may remember, the Phillies won 102 games behind a fantastic starting rotation. That group led the league with a 2.86 ERA and a 1.11 ratio. Nobody else was close — the Giant rotation had the second-best starter ERA for the year at 3.28.


The Rosenberg disaster

Worley is kind of a disaster, too, but at least that one is a little slower moving and we’ve had some time to get used to it.

The Phillies fell to the Mets 9-5 in ten innings last night. Worley gave them another miserable start and was gone after just 4 1/3 innings. Solid work from the bullpen kept the Phils in the game for a while, but BJ Rosenberg got hammered in the top of the tenth, allowing four runs in the frame as the Mets blew the game open.

Howard and Utley paced the offense for the Phils. Howard hit a grand slam in the bottom of the first and Utley added a solo homer in the fifth.

Worley has been terrible since the end of June, making 11 starts in which he has thrown to a 5.80 ERA with a 1.83 ratio. In 59 innings he has allowed 86 hits. He suggests the bone chip in his right elbow is not a factor in recent results.

Domonic Brown also did some freaky stuff in left field you would really hope he could avoid. He sort of tippy-toed up to a single to left in the top of the first before unleashing a fantastic throw that arrived not quite in time, perhaps thanks in part to the tippy-toeing. In the eighth inning, playing towards left center, Brown took forever to get to a ball hit near the line, allowing a runner to score from first. He was removed for a defensive replacement in the top of the tenth and looks like he might get some additional time to rest his sore knee.

The Phillies are 61-68 after losing 9-5 to the New York Mets in ten innings last night. The loss snaps a four-game winning streak for the Phils. They remain in third place in the NL East, 16 1/2 games out of first.

Worley got the start for the Phillies and went 4 1/3 innings, allowing four runs on nine hits. Two of the hits went for extra-bases, a double and a two-run homer. He struck out four.

Ruben Tejada and Daniel Murphy were the first two batters that Worley faced in the top of the first and they reached on a pair of singles that put runners on first and second. David Wright was next and singled to left. Tejada tried to score and slid in safe ahead of Brown’s throw — he was originally ruled out, but the home plate ump got some help from the other umps who saw Kratz had dropped the ball and the runner was clearly safe. 1-0 with men on first and second for Ike Davis. Davis flew to left for the first out. Lucas Duda was next and he lined to short with Rollins throwing to second to double off Murphy and end the inning.

Brown’s throw to the plate was great. Very strong and on target. The problem was he took a long time to get to the ball. It looks like he needs to take way too many little steps to get his body into the position he wants to be in to throw. When he does throw, the throw is often fantastic. Takes too long, though.

The Phillies led 4-1 when Kelly Shoppach started the second with a single. Shoppach took second on a passed ball, but Worley struck Mike Baxter out for the first out, Andres Torres out for the second and got the pitcher Chris Young on a fly ball to right to leave Shoppach there.

Murphy singled to center with one out in the third and took second on another passed ball by Kratz. Wright flew to center for the second out. Davis was next and hit a ball into shallow left field that Rollins took near the line after a long run to leave Murphy stranded.

Two passed balls in two innings for Kratz.

Duda singled to start the fourth. Shoppach was next and Worley struck him out swinging for the first out, but Baxter was next and lined the first pitch from Worley out to right for his first home run of the year. 4-3. Torres flew to center for the second out and the pitcher Young struck out for the third.

Worley joins Edinson Volquez on the list of people who have ever allowed a home run to Mike Baxter in a Major League game. In their collective defense, Baxter did hit 18 home runs in the PCL one year.

Tejada led off the fifth and doubled down the left field line on a ball interfered with by a fan. Muprhy moved him up to third with another single, putting runners on the corners for Wright. Wright hit a fly ball to center for the first out, deep enough for Tejada to tag and score, tying the game at 4-4. Valdes took over for Worley and got the next two to leave Murphy at first.

The Phils were back up 5-4 when Valdes set the Mets down in order in the sixth.

Valdes has been fantastic for the Phillies this season. He drops his ERA for the year to 2.93 with the outing. Among the 225 pitchers who have thrown at least 20 innings in the NL this year, his 0.75 ratio is fourth-best. He has an 0.96 ERA with an 0.43 ratio in 9 1/3 innings in his ten appearances in August.

Lindblom started the seventh and walked Scott Hairston to get things started. Tejada flew to left behind Hairston for the first out. Hariston was caught trying to steal second as Murphy struck out swinging to end the frame.

Lindblom was back to walk Wright to start the eighth. Bastardo came in to pitch to Davis and got him on a fly ball to right for the first out. Duda was next and Bastardo struck him out for the second. Shoppach was next and he dumped a ball down the left field line. Brown was playing towards left center and it took him a whole lot of time to get to the ball. Wright scored to tie the game at 5-5 with Shoppach at second. Baxter flew to left to leave Shoppach at second.

Second time in the game that Brown did something weird in left field. In the first, he seemed to take a whole lot of steps to get ready to make his strong throw to the plate. This time he was just super slow running to get the ball, presumably (we hope) cause he is still having problems with his knees.

Lindblom has walked way too many hitters and his walk to the leadoff man hurts the Phils as Wright comes around to score. He has now walked ten in 10 2/3 innings since joining the Phils while throwing to a 6.75 ERA.

Bastardo goes an inning, allowing a double and a run that is charged to Lindblom. He has a 7.01 ERA since the end of May.

Papelbon threw a 1-2-3 ninth with the score tied at 5-5.

Papelbon again not terrible in a tie game as he set New York down in order. He’s been charged with one earned run in 15 1/3 innings over his last 15 appearances.

Rosenberg started the tenth. Wright singled with one out. Davis followed and blasted a ball into the gap in left center, scoring Wright to make it 6-5. Duda followed that with a single into center. Davis scored (7-5) and Duda took second as the throw came home. Shoppach was next and he hit the first pitch he saw from Rosenberg out to left. 9-5. Rosenberg hit Baxter with a pitch and pitcher Bobby Parnell bunted Baxter to second with the second out. Hairston flew to center to set the Mets down.

Helpful guideline for deciding whether to use Horst or Rosenberg in the tenth inning of a tied game: Horst good, Rosenberg, not so much yet. Rosenberg was coming off four outings in a row without being charged with a run, but his ERA for the year is up to 12.66 after allowing four runs in an inning. He has a 4.29 ratio against left-handed hitter for the year — in 2 1/3 innings he has allowed three hits and walked seven.

The pen goes 5 2/3 innings in the game, allowing five runs on five hits and two walks. They did a nice job after Worley left after 4 1/3 until the tenth inning rolled around. Valdes and Papelbon were great. Lindblom and Bastardo combined to allow a run in two innings.

Valdes threw 26 pitches. Lindblom and Rosenberg each threw 18. Bastardo 15 and Papelbon 11.

The Phillies lineup against righty Chris Young went (1) Rollins (2) Frandsen (3) Utley (4) Howard (5) Mayberry (6) Brown (7) Nix (8) Kratz. Brown returns to the lineup after getting two days off to rest his knee. He plays left with Nix in right — Brown’s UZR/150 numbers suggest he’s been a lot better defensively in left than in right in limited innings in 2012. Mayberry in center, where the same numbers suggest he’s awful (-38.3 UZR/150 in center coming into the game, which is 47th of the 47 players across both leagues with at least 200 innings in center this year). Kratz should be catching a lot with Schneider and Ruiz both on the DL, backed up by Steven Lerud, up from Double-A.

The Phillies were down 1-0 when they hit in the bottom of the first. The loaded the bases with nobody out on walks by Rollins and Utley and a hit by pitch to Frandsen. It brought Howard to the plate and he hit a 1-2 pitch into the Phillie bullpen for a grand slam that put the Phils on top 4-1. The Phillies went in order behind him.

Young didn’t look like he had a whole lot. The scoreboard was showing his fastball in the mid-80s.

Kratz singled to start the bottom of the second, but the Phils went in order behind him.

Mayberry walked with two outs in the third, but Brown popped to Wright to leave him at first.

It was 4-3 when Nix started the fourth with a single. Kratz was next and hit a ball handled by Young. Young threw to second to force Nix for the first out. Worley bunted Kratz to second with the second out, but Rollins flew to left to leave him there.

It was 4-4 when the Phils hit in the fifth. Frandsen flew to right for the first out before Utley hit a 2-1 pitch out to right, putting the Phils up 5-4. Lefty Robert Carson took over for Young and struck Howard out for the second out. Carson hit Mayberry with a pitch, but Brown grounded to short with Mayberry forced at second to end the inning.

Hit by pitch is kinda like a walk against a lefty for Mayberry, but not a walk. Mayberry is the only righty in the lineup from three (Utley) to seven (Nix). He can’t break up four lefties as the righty in the five-hole if he’s never going to get on base against lefties. He came into the game hitting .271 against lefties, but on-basing .273 against them with no walks in 132 plate appearances. The guy on-basing .273 isn’t going to strike a lot of terror into a team who thinks they’re going to bring in a lefty to go through two through seven in the lineup with a single reliever. More on that later.

Carson got Nix to fly to left for the first out in the sixth. Righty Ramon Ramirez got Kratz to pop to third for the second out. Polanco hit for Worley and grounded to short to end the inning.

Ramirez walked Rollins to start the seventh and struck Frandsen out behind him. Lefty Josh Edgin came in to pitch to Utley and got Utley to hit into a double-play to end the inning.

It was 5-5 when the Phillies hit in the eighth. Mayberry singled off of the lefty Edgin with one out. Brown was next and lined to right for the second. Nix stayed in and hit for himself against the lefty, drawing a walk on a 3-2 pitch to put runners on first and second. Righty Jon Rauch came in to pitch to Kratz and got Kratz on a fly ball to right to leave both runners stranded.

Another nice plate appearance for Nix against a lefty as he draws a walk off of Edgin. He’s now 2-for-6 with a walk, a double and a home run against lefties for the year.

Righty Bobby Parnell set the Phillies down in order in the ninth. Wigginton hit for Papelbon and grounded to second for the first out.

Wigginton doesn’t hit for Nix against the lefty in the eighth, then does hit against a righty in the ninth. The lefty Lerud and the switch-hitter Martinez were on the bench for the Phils and unused in the game.

The Phillies were down 9-5 when Utley singled off of Parnell to start the tenth. Parnell struck out Howard and Mayberry for the first two outs and got Pierre to ground to third to end the game.

Rollins was 0-for-3 in the game and walked twice. He came into the game 5-for-his-last-10.

Frandsen was 0-for-4. He’s 3-for-his-last-14.

Utley 2-for-4 with a walk and a home run. First home run since August 10.

Howard 1-for-5 with a grand slam and three strikeouts. 1-for-his-last-12.

Mayberry 1-for-3 with a walk. 7-for-his-last-17.

Brown 0-for-4 with some trouble in left. Pierre took over for him defensively in the top of the tenth inning. Let’s hope his knee is bothering him. A lot. He says that he does not feel bad at all.

Nix 1-for-3 with a walk. 4-for-his-last-11 with two walks.

Kratz 1-for-4 with two passed balls. Dropped the throw from Brown in the top of the first on a close play at the plate. 2-for-his-last-14 with two singles.

Hamels (14-6, 2.99) faces righty Matt Harvey (2-3, 2.75) tonight. Hamels has a 1.86 ERA with a 1.01 ratio in his five starts in August. The Phils will get their first look at the 23-year-old rookie Harvey. Harvey has made six starts on the season and only one of them has been bad — he allowed five runs in five innings against the Padres on August 5. He has a 1.74 ERA his other five starts with 38 strikeouts in 31 innings. Opponents are hitting just .186 against him for the year, but he’s walked 15 in 36 innings for the year.

Okay. John Mayberry and no walks against left-handed pitchers. Coming into last night’s game, Mayberry had 132 plate appearances against lefties in which he had walked zero times. Question of the day is when is the last time that a player for either league ended the season with 132 or more plate appearances against lefties in which they walked zero times (which, of course, Mayberry hasn’t done yet)? Answer for the day is that I hope you know, cause I don’t. Ivan Rodriguez came close in 2007, walking zero times in 126 plate appearances against lefties. In 1986, Angel Salazar walked zero times in 111. Rob Picciolo none in 115 in 1980. Good chance I missed someone, but my inefficient system of looking it up didn’t find anyone since 1980. Hopefully he’ll just get a walk against a lefty soon and we can all just forget about it.

Update: Hamels is ill, so Tyler Cloyd will start tonight. The righty Cloyd turned 25 in May and will be making his Major League debut. He was fantastic at Triple-A this year, throwing to a 2.35 ERA with a 1.01 ratio in 22 starts while allowing just 105 hits in 142 innings. Cloyd doesn’t throw real hard and doesn’t strike people out — he has 93 strikeouts in 142 innings at AAA this year.

He’s drawn light blue in the Start Log — hopefully a slightly different shade than Oswalt, Blanton, Freddy Garcia, Corey Lidle or Randy Wolf.

Please note that the Start Log helpfully points out the Phils merely need to play to a 1.030 winning percentage in their 33 remaining games to reach 95 wins for the season.

Update 2: This says Worley is out for the rest of the season.


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