Tag: Shane Victorino

Phils overcome Halladay’s worst start of the season to top Giants

The Phillies have won five games this year and Roy Halladay has started three of them. Last night the Phils got four early runs and cruised behind Halladay’s arm after that as they topped the Giants 5-2.

In 23 innings for the season, Halladay has allowed 14 hits and four walks (that’s an 0.78 ratio). Last night he allowed more than one run in a start for the first time in three outings.

As a group, the starting pitchers for the Phillies this season have thrown to a 2.54 ERA and an 0.95 ratio.

The Phillies are 5-5 on the year after beating the San Francisco Giants 5-2 yesterday.

Halladay got the start for the Phillies and went eight innings, allowing two runs on seven hits and three walks. One of the hits went for extra-bases, a double. He struck out six and his ERA for the year rose to 1.17 with the outing.

He started the bottom of the first up 4-0. Switch-hitter Angel Pagan led off with a single and moved to second when switch-hitter Melky Cabrera walked behind him. Switch-hitter Pablo Sandoval was next and he lined to second for the first out. Righty Buster Posey moved everyone up a base with an infield single, loading the bases for lefty Aubrey Huff. Huff hit a fly ball to right that Pence took for the second out, but it was deep enough for Pagan to score from third (4-1) and Cabrera to move up to third. Halladay got ahead of Belt 0-2, but then threw four straight balls to walk him and load the bases up again, this time for lefty Brandon Crawford. Halladay got Crawford swinging 0-2 to leave them loaded.

Again Halladay has some problems in the first inning. Through three starts, opponents are hitting .462 against him in the first inning and under .200 in every other inning.

Switch-hitter Emmanuel Burriss flew to left for the first out of the second. Pitcher Tim Lincecum grounded to third for the second out before Pagan struck out looking.

Posey singled with two outs in the third, but Halladay got Huff on a softly hit ball to Galvis to end the inning.

The Phillies were up 5-1 when Belt led off the bottom of the fourth with a single to left. Crawford was next and doubled to left, sending Belt to third. Burriss struck out swinging for the first out, but Lincecum followed and grounded out to third, bringing Belt home to cut the lead to 5-2. Pagan flew to right for the third out.

Sandoval hit a ball up the first base line that hit the bag for a single with one out in the fifth. Halladay struck Posey out looking for the second out before Huff walked on five pitches, putting runners on first and second for Belt. Belt struck out looking 2-2 to leave both men stranded.

Halladay got the first two in the sixth before lefty Nate Schierholtz hit for Lincecum. Halladay got Schierholtz on a fly ball to center for the third out.

He set Pagan, Cabrera and Sandoval down in order in the seventh.

Posey started the eighth with a single to left on a ball deflected by Polanco at third. Halladay set down Huff, Belt and Crawford behind him.

Papelbon started the ninth. He was pitching for the second straight day after throwing 26 pitches with a six-run lead on Sunday against the Mets. Really.

Went well, though. Burriss flew to center for the first out. Lefty Gregor Blanco hit for the pitcher Jeremy Affeldt and grounded to first for the second. Pagan singled to right and took second on defensive indifference, but Cabrera grounded to second to end the game.

Papelbon has now thrown for two straight days, including Sunday night’s absurd outing. He has allowed a run in five innings for the year, but opponents are hitting .300 against him.

The Phillies lineup against righty Tim Lincecum went (1) Pierre (2) Polanco (3) Rollins (4) Pence (5) Victorino (6) Nix (7) Ruiz (8) Galvis. Pierre leads off and plays left against the righty. The lefty Nix at first with righties Mayberry and Wigginton on the bench. Polanco shouldn’t be hitting second and especially not against righties.

On cue, Polanco doubled to right with one out in the first and Rollins walked behind him. Pence was next and lined a single into center, scoring Polanco (1-0) and moving Rollins up to second. Victorino followed that with a single into center, scoring Rollins (2-0) and sending Pence to second for Nix. Nix doubled into right and the ball rolled to the wall, clearing the bases and putting the Phils up 4-0. Ruiz moved Nix up to third with a ground out, but Galvis struck out to leave him there.

First extra-base hit of the year for Polanco. Second big double for Nix in two games.

The lead was cut to 4-1 when the Phils went in order in the second.

Rollins, Pence and Victorino went in order in the third.

Galvis lined a double to right with two outs in the fourth. Halladay followed that with a single into right, scoring Galvis to make it 5-1. Pierre grounded to second to set the Phillies down.

Galvis went 0-for-10 to start the season. Since then he has hit 333/333/619 in 21 plate appearances with three doubles and a home run.

It was 5-2 when the Phillies hit in the fifth. Pence and Victorino singled back-to-back with two outs, putting men on first and second for Nix. Nix grounded to first to leave them stranded.

Lincecum set the Phillies down in order in the sixth.

Righty Dan Otero started the seventh. He hit Polanco with one out, but got Rollins and Pence behind him.

Otero was back for the eighth. With one out, Nix reached on a fielding error by Crawford at short. Ruiz moved Nix up to second with a single. Galvis hit a ball to second with Ruiz forced at second for the second out and runners safe at the corners. Halladay hit for himself and grounded to the pitcher to end the game.

Halladay hits for himself having thrown 100 pitches in the game with two outs, men on the corners and the Phils up 5-2. Phillies have lefties Thome, Schneider and Orr on the bench. Halladay already has an RBI-single in the game. Think I would have hit Thome for him, but it all worked out fine. I think I might have tried harder to keep Papelbon out of the game coming off of 26 pitches on Sunday.

Lefty Jeremy Affeldt pitched the ninth, setting the Phillies down in order. Mayberry hit for Pierre and struck out for the first out of the inning.

Pierre was 0-for-4 in the game. He’s 7-for-24 with seven singles and no walks for the year (292/292/292).

Polanco was 1-for-4 with a double, his first extra-base hit of the year, to raise his average to .200. He has one walk on the season, so the top two in the Phillies order in the game end the day having walked once in 61 plate appearances.

Rollins 0-for-4 with a walk and two strikeouts. He came into the game 11-for-25 with a six-game hitting streak.

Pence was 2-for-4 with an RBI. He’s 4-for-his-last-8.

Victorino 2-for-4 with an RBI as well. He’s hitting .316, but still just has one extra-base hit on the year (a home run off of Mark Buehrle).

Nix 1-for-4 with two RBI. 2-for-his-last-7 with a walk, two doubles and three RBI.

Ruiz was 1-for-4. He’s hitting .208 over his last 25 plate appearances after going 4-for-6 to start the season.

Galvis 1-for-4 with a double and a strikeout. He leads the team with four extra-base hits (three doubles and a home run).

Joe Blanton (1-1, 2.35) faces lefty Madison Bumgarner (1-1, 3.97) tonight in game two of the set. Blanton was great in his only start of the season, holding the Marlins to a run over seven innings. Bumgarner has made two starts, allowing four runs against the Diamondback over four innings in the first and holding the Rockies to a run over 7 1/3 innings his most recent time out.


It’s been 14 years that are gone forever and are otherwise unremarkable

In my previous post, I pointed out that Phillie starters led the NL in innings pitched in 2011 with 1,064 2/3. So when was the last time an NL team saw its starters throw that many innings? 1998, when the Braves did it.

Here’s the list of the teams that led the league in innings by starting pitcher over the past 14 years:

Year Team IP by starters
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
PHI
PHI
STL
MIL
SF
COL
STL
CHC
CHC
ARI
ATL
ATL
ARI
ATL
1064 2/3
1035 1/3
1003 2/3
983 1/3
968 2/3
985
1048
1007
1030 1/3
1059 1/3
1007 2/3
1040 1/3
1056 2/3
1074 2/3

In the past six seasons, the only NL team other than the Phillies to get 1,000 innings from their starters is the 2009 St Louis Cardinals.

No team has gotten more innings from their starter since the 1998 Atlanta Braves threw 1,074 2/3. Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, John Smoltz, Danny Neagle all made at least 26 starts for the Braves that year and all of them threw an average of at least 6.45 innings per start. Maddux led the group, making 34 starts in which he threw 251 innings, which is about 7.38 innings per start.

In the DL-loving American League, getting a thousand innings from your starters has happened a little more often in recent history. In each of the past two seasons there were four AL teams that saw their starters toss a 1,000 frames. The Mariners, White Sox and Angels have all had their starters go a thousand innings in each of the last two years while the Rays and Red Sox have each done it once.

This suggests the Phils are going to work more on bunting and mentions Rollins, Victorino, Michael Martinez and Juan Pierre as bunt-for-a-hit candidates. Really hoping we don’t see Victorino bunting 15-20 more times a year in 2012.

The article linked above also says that Conteras’s bullpen session went well yesterday and he could still be ready for Opening Day.

This article suggests that Brian Sanches and David Herndon might be battling for a bullpen spot. I do like Sanches and think there’s a chance he can help the Phils this year, but have some trouble forgetting him allowing four home runs in relief the night the Phils lost their ten thousandth game in team history.

Danys Baez retired. Between 2010 and 2011, Baez made 80 relief appearances for the Phils in which he threw to a 5.81 ERA with a 1.60 ratio.


The company he kinda keeps

Point for today is that John Mayberry has hit home runs at a high rate with the Phils over the past two years.

Between 2010 and 2011, John Mayberry got 309 plate appearances with the Phillies in which hit to a 276/343/527 line with 27 walks, 77 hits and 17 home runs. In those plate appearances, he walked in 8.74% of his plate appearances, got a hit of any kind in 24.92% and homered in 5.5%.

Looking back at 2011, there were 355 players who got at least 200 plate appearances across both leagues. Of those, how many did at least as well in each of those three categories (ie, walked 8.74% of pa or better, got a hit in 24.92% or better and homered in 5.5% or better)? The answer is three.

Player BB% H% HR%
Matt Kemp 10.74 28.30 5.66
Albert Pujols 9.37 26.57 5.68
Mike Napoli 13.43 27.31 6.94

And how about among the 346 players that got 200 plate appearances in 2010? Four.

Player BB% H% HR%
Albert Pujols 14.71 26.14 6.00
Miguel Cabrera 13.73 27.78 5.86
Joey Votto 14.04 27.31 5.71
Paul Konerko 11.41 27.10 6.18

So it’s a rather exclusive group of offensive players. What makes it so hard to get into? The home runs.

For each of the two seasons, here’s the percentage of players with at least 200 plate appearances that got walks, hits and home runs at the same rates Mayberry has with the Phils over the last two years as a percentage of plate appearances:

2010 2011
% of 200 PA players who walked in 8.74% or more of PA 46.5 39.4
 . . . got hits in 24.92% or more of PA 27.7 30.1
. . . hit home runs in 5.5% or more of PA 3.5 3.9

Nearly half of the players with 200 plate appearances in 2010 walked enough to make the list. Between a quarter and a third in both 2010 and 2011 got enough hits. But less than 4% in each season hit home runs at the rate Mayberry did in 2010 and 2011 combined.

Notably, Mayberry himself doesn’t make the cut in either of the two years, only in the two years combined. In 2010 he only got 13 plate appearances. In 2011, he got enough plate appearances, enough walks and enough hits, but homered in about 5.1% of his plate appearances (15 homers in 296 plate appearances).

In 2011, there were 14 players who got at least 200 plate appearances and hit home runs in 5.5% or more of their plate appearances. Kemp, Pujols and Napoli had all three of the hits, walks and homers. Nelson Cruz, Chris Heisey and Brent Lillibridge had the home runs but not the walks or hits. Adrian Beltre had the home runs and the hits but not the walks. Seven players, Prince Fielder, Curtis Granderson, Mark Teixeira, Jose Bautista, Mark Reynolds, Mike Stanton and Andruw Jones, had the homers and the walks but not the hits.

In 2010, four players had all three: Pujols, Cabrera, Votto and Konerko. There were eight players with the homers but not each of the other two categories. Stanton and Edwin Encarnacion missed on both walks and hits. Josh Hamilton got the hits but not the walks. And five players, Bautista, Adam Dunn, Russell Branyan, Jim Thome and Andruw Jones, got the homers and the walks but not enough hits.

Jose Contreras threw a bullpen session yesterday, did “fine” and “threw very, very well.” The same article says that Chad Qualls has arrived in camp and that Justin De Fratus, who has had some recent tightness in his right elbow, started to long toss.

Brad Lidge sounds less than thrilled with what happened between him and the Phillies in the off-season in this piece.

Gary Sheffield worked with Domonic Brown on Brown’s hitting over the winter.

Shane Victorino, who will be a free agent after the season, says he loves Philadelphia and there have been no discussions about a new contract with the Phils yet.


Underflyin’ Hawaiian?

The total number of bases stolen by the Phillies was down in 2011 compared to recent years. In my previous post, I suggested that a big part of the dropoff has to do with the number of bases that are being stolen by Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino.

In 2011, Rollins stole 30 bases for the Phils and Victorino stole 19. Based on their career numbers for stolen bases based on plate appearances and the number of times they have been on base, which of those numbers should come as a bigger surprise?

      Before 2011       In 2011    
  SB PA TOB SB per PA SB per TOB PA Expected SB based on PA Expected SB based on TOB Actual SB
Rollins 343 6906 2257 .0497 .152 631 31.34 32.37 30
Victorino 143 3043 1034 .0470 .138 586 27.54 28.49 19

I think the answer is that based on his pre-2011 numbers, Rollins’s stolen base total of 30 given his plate appearances and times on base is a lot closer to expected than Victorino’s 19. The 30 stolen bases isn’t really even a surprise of Rollins, given his past history of stolen base totals relative to the number of plate appearances he gets and the number of times he gets on base. Rollins missed time with injuries in 2011, limiting his plate appearances to 631 for the season. His stolen base rate in 2011 was very similar to what it was in 2006. That year he got 758 plate appearances, was on base 253 times and stole 36 bases. Based on his ’11 rate, he would have stolen 36 bases over 758 plate appearances in 2011 as well.

While his 2006 and 2011 rates of stolen bases are similar, Rollins has slowed a bit in the stolen base department over the past three years. He stole a career high 47 bases in 2008 and in that year his rates for stolen bases per plate appearance and stolen bases per time on base were also the highest for his career. In the three years since, Rollins has gotten 1,750 plate appearances, been on base 553 times and stolen 78 bases. Had he stolen bases at the rate he had through the end of 2008 and gotten the same number of plate appearances and times on base, we would have expected between 85 (if you use times on base) and 89 (if you use plate appearances) stolen bases.

The other thing I think the table above illustrates is that whether you base it on his stolen bases per plate appearance or his stolen bases per times on base, Rollins has been more likely to steal a base over his career than Victorino.

Victorino saw a bigger drop in his stolen bases in 2011, having stolen 132 bags over his last four seasons, an average of 33 per year.

Victorino stole more than 40 bases in the minors in both 2001 and 2002. In 2003 he got just 86 plate appearances with the Padres, but still stole seven bases. He arrived with the Phils in 2006 and didn’t run at all, getting just four stolen bases in 462 plate appearances. He followed that up with four years with the Phils as an everyday player in which he stole an average of 33 bases a year, at least 25 in every season and at least 30 in three of the four, before stealing just 19 in 2011.

Victorino was effective in his stolen base attempts in 2011, he just made fewer of them. He was caught stealing just three times, giving him a safe rate of 86.4%, which was the second-best of his career after 2007 when he stole 37 bags and was caught just four times (90.2% safe). He also saw considerable time in the leadoff spot in the order, getting 237 plate appearances batting first in the order. While hitting first in the order he stole just nine bases — in 2010 he had gotten 386 plate appearances as a leadoff hitter and stole bases at a much higher rate, getting 22 for the season while batting first.

So why did Victorino run less last year? I don’t know. But I think it’s important to remember that even when you include stolen bases, 2011 was the most productive year of his career as an offensive player. He walked at the best rate of his career, hit a career-high 16 triples and, as a percentage of his plate appearances, delivered extra-base hits and home runs at the highest level of his career. Remember, as good as Victorino’s year was, he had even better numbers before slowing at the end of the season. After going 2-for-4 with a walk and a triple against the Fish on September 2, Victorino was hitting a monster 308/384/542 in 471 plate appearances for the season. His numbers tumbled after that as he hit 163/237/288 over his last 115 plate appearances.

Victorino will appear on the February 20 episode of Hawaii Five-O.

This article by Jayson Stark suggests the Phils may be trying to trade Joe Blanton and that doing so might enable them to try to bring back Oswalt.


Never slow down, never grow old and losing Bourn and Werth probably won’t help much either

In yesterday’s post I pointed out that the number of bases the Phillies have been stealing has dropped off in recent years. In 2011, for the fourth straight year, the Phillies stole fewer bases than they had in the previous season. In three of those four years, their safe rate also went down from the previous year.

In 2007, the Phils were second in the NL in stolen bases with 138. In 2008 they were third with 136. Last year they stole 96, which was eleventh in the league.

So where did all the stolen bases go? Here’s who stole the bases for the Phils in 2007, 2008 and 2011:

Year

Player

SB

CS

Safe

2007

Jimmy Rollins
Shane Victorino
Michael Bourn
Chase Utley
Jayson Werth
Carlos Ruiz
Aaron Rowand
Tadahito Iguchi
Greg Dobbs
Abraham Nunez
Chris Roberson
Ryan Howard
Rod Barajas
Total

41
37
18
9
7
6
6
6
3
2
2
1
0
138

6
4
1
1
1
1
3
1
0
0
0
0
1
19

87.2%
90.2%
94.7%
90.0%
87.5%
85.7%
66.7%
85.7%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
0.0%
87.9%

2008

Jimmy Rollins
Shane Victorino
Jayson Werth
Chase Utley
Eric Bruntlett
Greg Dobbs
So Taguchi
Carlos Ruiz
Ryan Howard
Geoff Jenkins
Greg Golson
Chris Coste
Total

47
36
20
14
9
3
3
1
1
1
1
0
136

3
11
1
2
2
1
0
2
1
1
0
1
25

94.0%
76.6%
95.2%
87.5%
81.8%
75.0%
100.0%
33.3%
50.0%
50.0%
100.0%
0.0%
84.5%

2011

Jimmy Rollins
Shane Victorino
Chase Utley
John Mayberry
Ben Francisco
Placido Polanco
Wilson Valdez
Michael Martinez
Domonic Brown
Pete Orr
Raul Ibanez
Carlos Ruiz
Ryan Howard
Hunter Pence
Cliff Lee
Cole Hamels
Total

30
19
14
8
4
3
3
3
3
3
2
1
1
1
1
0
96

8
3
0
3
4
0
3
0
1
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
24

78.9%
86.4%
100.0%
72.7%
50.0%
100.0%
50.0%
100.0%
75.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
50.0%
100.0%
0.0%
80.0%

It sure seems like getting older should be the answer, and it probably is. Notably, though, Chase Utley’s stolen bases haven’t slowed since ’07 and ’08. Utley got 159 fewer plate appearances in 2011 than he got in either of 2007 or 2008, but still managed to steal 14 bags, as many as he swiped in ’08 and more than ’07.

The guys that are dramatically down are Rollins and Victorino. In 2007, they combined to steal 78 bases and in 2008 they combined to steal 83. In 2011, they combined to steal 49. In 2001, when the Phils led the NL with 153 stolen bases, they combined to steal 46 with Victorino not on the team. He was busy hitting 283/344/400 (and stealing 47 bases) for the Wilmington Waves in the Dodger organization.

Finally, during the 2007 and 2008 seasons, the Phillies also benefited significantly from the stolen base efforts of Michael Bourn and Jayson Werth. Bourn stole 18 bases for the Phils in 2007 and was caught just once. Between 2007 and 2008, Jayson Werth stole 27 bases and was caught twice.


Half and better half

The Phillies played 82 games from the start of the season to the end of June, going 51-31. In those 82 games, they were eighth in the NL in runs scored. After June, the Phils played 80 games, going 51-29. They led the league in runs scored in those 80 games.

Here’s a look back at what the offense did by position, breaking the season down into two halves — the 82 games through the end of June and the 80 games after the start of July.

Catcher:

Ruiz served as the primary catcher for the Phils in both the first and second half of the season. He was simply much better during the second half (after the end of June) than he was in the first.

PA HR RBI AVG OBP SLG
April-June 221 3 16 243 348 333
July to End 251 3 24 317 391 425

Ruiz played a little more in the second half and showed more power, but mostly just got a lot more hits, hitting .317 in the second half after hitting .243 in the first. He actually walked a little less regularly in the second half, about 9.2% of his plate appearances compared to about 11.3% in the first half, but his on-base percentage was a whole lot better thanks to the much better batting average.

First base:

At first, Howard fared about as well after the end of June as he had in the first 82 games of the year:

PA HR RBI AVG OBP SLG
April-June 353 17 64 254 354 488
July to End 291 16 52 252 337 488

Very similar numbers for Howard in both halves. He walked more regularly in the first half, but hit for nearly the same average with about the same power.

The Phils did see a benefit at the position in the second half of the year thanks to John Mayberry. Mayberry started just ten games at first the whole year, but nine of those starts came after the end of June. Mayberry crushed the ball in 2011 while playing first for the Phillies — in his 45 plate appearances while playing first he put up a monster 409/422/682 line.

Second:

Second base was an offensive disaster for the Phils in the early part of the season. Chase Utley returned at the end of May and hit .222 in 27 May at-bats, but followed that up with a fantastic June in which he hit 297/387/470. He was even better in July as he hit 293/369/550. From August 1 to the end of the regular season he hit a meager 227/305/343. Here’s what his numbers first and second half look like:

PA HR RBI AVG OBP SLG
April-June 140 3 16 280 381 449
July to End 314 8 28 250 328 414

Utley was simply not good after the end of June, hitting just .250 and on-basing .328. As uninspired as those numbers are, they still were a significant improvement for a team that struggled to find offense from the position while Utley was out.

Here’s the numbers of games started at second base for the Phils in the first and second halves of the year:

1st Half (April-June) 2nd half (July-end)
Utley 31 (37.8%) 69 (86.3%)
Valdez 31 (37.8%) 2 (2.5%)
Orr 16 (19.5%) 4 (7.5%)
Martinez 4 (4.9%) 3 (3.7%)

So Utley started about 38% of the games at second through the end of June and about 86% of the games after June. And even though he wasn’t hitting particularly Utley-like, that’s still important. Cause even a sluggish Utley is a whole lot better offensively than those other guys. Here’s what the four guys who started games for the Phillies at second did offensively while playing that position in 2011:

PA AVG OBP SLG
Utley 451 257 340 423
Valdez 126 246 289 307
Orr 82 213 280 240
Martinez 30 241 267 379

Even an Utley way off his game was way better than the rest of those guys, most notably out on-basing the second-best on-base percentage in the group (Valdez) by more than fifty points.

After Utley returned to the Phillies on May 23, the Phils led the NL in runs scored the rest of the way. That was despite the fact that the offense wasn’t good at all in June, though, as the Phils finished eleventh in the NL that month. Because the offense was so terrible in June (despite a monster 297/387/470 line for Utley for the month) it’s hard for me to see his return as the turnaround point for the offense. The offense was best in the NL after that date because 1) they were fantastic in July, better than any other NL team, and very strong in August and September and 2) in the nine games from May 23 to the end of May, the Phils played nine games and scored 51 runs or 5.67 runs per game.

Third base:

Polanco, you may have noticed, was atrocious in 2011. He didn’t start out that way, though. He hit nearly .400 in April, putting up a 398/447/524 line over 114 plate appearances. After that he hit 243/304/287 the rest of the way.

He played a lot less in the second half of the season, and without the huge April his numbers were a lot worse:

PA HR RBI AVG OBP SLG
April-June 340 4 39 288 339 363
July to End 183 1 11 258 328 294

When he did play in the second half, Polanco’s walk rate rose a little (8.7% of plate appearances compared to 7.6% in the first half), but his average was way off and his power nearly gone altogether. He had four extra-base hits from July 1 to the end of the year.

Here’s who started at third for the Phils through the end of June and after the start of July:

1st Half (April-June) 2nd half (July-end)
Polanco 76 (92.7%) 39 (48.8%)
Valdez 6 (7.3%) 15 (18.7%)
Martinez 0 (0%) 24 (30.0%)
Orr 0 (0%) 2 (2.5%)

Polanco got more than 90% of the starts in the first 82 games of the year for the Phils. After the start of July, Valdez, Martinez and Orr combined to start more often at third than he did.

Here’s what the guys did offensively while playing third for the Phils this year:

PA AVG OBP SLG
Polanco 513 280 337 343
Martinez 104 231 304 352
Valdez 84 253 286 354
Orr 7 000 000 000

Unlike second base, there was not a huge improvement at the position when the Phils got their starter on the field. For the year, Valdez and Martinez both offered significantly more power from the position while getting on base a little less. Not to be forgotten is that Polanco hit 243/304/287 for the year after the end of April — both Martinez and Valdez gave the Phils more offense at third when they played than Polanco did after his strong April.

Short:

At shortstop, Jimmy Rollins was a much better offensive player in the second half of the year than he was in the first.

PA HR RBI AVG OBP SLG
April-June 352 7 31 254 327 368
July to End 279 9 32 286 351 437

More hits and more power for Rollins in the second half of the season than the first. His walk rate was down, but just a tiny bit, and thanks to all the hits his on-base percentage was up to .351. From June 26 through August 20, Rollins hit 298/372/461 over 215 plate appearances.

He didn’t play nearly as much in the second half as he did the first. Valdez made 20 starts at short on the season and 15 of them came after the start of July. Valdez had solid numbers while playing short for the Phils in 2011, though, posting a 278/338/414 line over 81 plate appearances. That’s very similar to the 272/340/417 line that Rollins put up while playing short in 2011.

While playing short for the Phils in 2011, Valdez posted a 278/338/414 line over 81 plate appearances. He got 219 plate appearances as something other than a shortstop. In those plate appearances he hit 239/277/313.

Left field:

Ibanez didn’t play as much in left field in the second half of the season, but when he did he was a little better:

PA HR RBI AVG OBP SLG
April-June 309 9 34 235 285 393
July to End 266 11 50 256 293 448

He was still terrible at getting on base, but Ibanez did show a bit more power in the second half of the year.

Ibanez started in left in 72 of the first 82 (87.8%) games of the season for the Phils. After the start of July the Phils played 80 games and he started just 59 (73.7%). The other 21 second-half starts were made by Mayberry (12) and Francisco (nine).

Both of those guys were fantastic in the second half. Here’s what the two did after the start of July (at all positions, not just left field):

PA AVG OBP SLG
Mayberry 179 301 358 607
Francisco 65 322 354 407

Mayberry was absolutely fantastic in the second half, hitting 12 home runs in 179 plate appearances while on-basing .358. That’s a lot of home runs — at that pace he would hit about 37 over a season of 550 plate appearances. For the season, he actually hit 15 over 296 plate appearances, which would have him at about 25 over 550 plate appearances.

Francisco hardly played at all after the start of July, but when he did he hit .322. That’s more than a hundred points higher than the .220 he hit in 228 plate appearances in the first 82 games of the season when he had a chance to cement his status as an everyday player. Just a tiny number of chances for Francisco in the second half, but I do think it’s curious that he seemingly forgot all about try to walk and hit .322. In the first 82 games of the season he walked in 12.7% of his plate appearances and in the last 80 he got just 65 plate appearances but walked in only 6.2% of them.

As bad as Francisco was with the Phils in 2011, he on-based .340 for the season, which was a career high. I think there’s a good chance that the Phils are going to regret having given him away.

Center Field:

Victorino played about as much in center the first and second halves of the season with about the same results.

PA HR RBI AVG OBP SLG
April-June 288 9 31 289 359 504
July to End 298 8 30 270 351 479

More hits in the first half, more walks in the second with about the same power all season long. Victorino started 63 of the 82 first half games (76.8%) and 63 of the 80 second-half games (78.5%). He really only had one month of the season where he wasn’t an outstanding offensive player in 2011 and that was September. After going 2-for-4 with a walk against the Fish on September 2, Victorino was hitting a silly 308/384/542 for the season. He would hit 163/237/288 in 115 plate appearances the rest of the way. Curiously the Phils kept playing him and playing him down the stretch, even after they clinched and he continued to slump. Victorino got 125 plate appearances in September, which led the team and was also the most he had in any month in 2011.

There were 34 games for the Phils in 2011 when Victorino didn’t start at center. Mayberry started 26 of them and Martinez eight. Martinez was predictably terrible, going 5-for-39 with five singles and no walks (128/128/128).

Overall for the year, Mayberry didn’t get on base a whole lot in his 115 plate appearances as a center fielder, but he did show a ton of power. He posted a 236/296/472 line in center for the season.

In his 13 starts in center field in the first half of the year, Mayberry was wretched. In those 13 games he hit 191/255/277. In the second half he started 13 games as well, but with much different results, posting a 291/328/673. In 13 second-half starts in center, Mayberry went 16-for-55 with 12 of the 16 hits going for extra-bases — seven doubles, a triple and four home runs. Four home over 13 starts is impressive, but so is seven doubles. At that pace, over 162 starts you would tally about 50 home runs and 87 doubles.

Right field:

Hunter Pence was traded from the Astros in late July and played his first game with the Phils on July 30. He was great in August (340/413/600) and almost as great in September (317/385/550).

For the 2011 season, Pence hit 325/396/563 in 235 plate appearances as the right field fielder for the Phillies.

This is what the guys for the Phils other than Pence who played right field for the Phils did in 2011 while playing right field:

PA AVG OBP SLG
Francisco 208 232 335 367
Brown 205 240 332 391
Mayberry 26 318 423 727
Gload 10 300 300 300
Bowker 2 000 000 000
Moss 2 000 000 000

Mayberry had some nifty numbers in 26 plate appearances and Gload went 3-for-10, but those guys were bad overall. Most notably, Brown and Francisco combined to get 413 plate appearances in which they hit a meager 236/333/379 combined.

To summarize:

  • In right, Pence arrived at the end of July and was not just good but great, hitting 324/394/560 over 236 plate appearances with the Phils.
  • At second, the first half production was miserable. Utley returned on May 23 and gave the Phils an enormous boost, replacing at-bats by Valdez, Orr and Martinez with Utley at-bats. He didn’t have a Chase Utley-like performance after the start of July, hitting just 250/328/414 from the start July to the end of the season, but it was still enough to give the Phils a huge boost at the position.
  • At catcher, Ruiz was a better hitter after the start of July. Getting about the same playing time in both halves, Ruiz hit 243/348/333 before the start of July and 317/391/425 from the start of July to the end of the regular season.
  • At short, Rollins, like Ruiz, was just better at offensively during the second half, hitting 286/351/437 after the start of July having ended June with a 254/327/368 line.
  • In left, Ibanez was bad both halves, but did get better in the second half and showed more power. He also played less in the second half as Francisco and Mayberry combined to make 21 starts in left. Francisco was good in limited time in the second half and Mayberry was great, hitting 301/358/607.
  • In center, Victorino had similar numbers both halves with a little drop off after July. Mayberry started the same number of games in center in the first and second halves (13), but had much better numbers in his 13 starts in center after July than before it. In 13 starts in center before the end of June he hit 191/255/277. In his 13 starts in center after the start of July he hit 291/328/673.
  • At first base, Ryan Howard had similar numbers in both halves. The Phils got a small bump at the position from Mayberry at the second half when Mayberry started nine of the ten games he started at first for the season. For the year, Mayberry hit a silly 409/422/682 as a 1B.
  • At third, Polanco, awful with the bat in 2011, did see less time at third during the second half of the year, but his fantastic April plus the fact that the guys who replaced him at third when he didn’t play in the second half didn’t do much of anything to help the Phillies.

Again, the Phils got a huge boost from Mayberry in the last 80 games, helping out in left, center and at first base.

A big question about the second-half surge seems to be whether Utley’s return or Pence’s arrival was a bigger factor. My thinking is that Pence was a bigger factor from July to the end of the year, but Utley’s return was likely a bigger factor for the year. More on that soon.

The comments close two weeks after a post is published, which is why we could not continue the discussion from the previous about whether or not David Wright is coming to the Phils. He’s not. Or at least a lot of people are going to be real surprised if he is.


  • Calender

    July 2014
    M T W T F S S
    « Apr    
     123456
    78910111213
    14151617181920
    21222324252627
    28293031  
  • Online Marketing
    Add blog to our blog directory.



    Web Directory

    Blogging Fusion Blog Directory

  • Copyright © 1996-2010 Philliesflow.com. All rights reserved.
    iDream theme by Templates Next | Powered by WordPress