Tag: Scott Rolen

No, you don’t understand: we really, really want a pitcher and not a belly-itcher

Here are the combined WAR, oWAR and dWAR for the non-pitchers for the Phillies over the past ten years as calculated by Baseball-Reference:

Year WAR oWAR dWAR
2012 15.0 14.0 1.0
2011 14.2 19.9 -5.4
2010 21.3 21.8 -0.6
2009 26.3 24.6 2.0
2008 27.3 20.3 7.0
2007 31.1 27.3 3.7
2006 20.0 21.6 -2.1
2005 27.7 18.8 8.9
2004 22.1 20.8 1.4
2003 25.8 24.0 2.1

So that’s bad, generally, although overall WAR for the non-pitchers actually improved from 2011 to 2012. Coming into the season, it had been down from the previous year for four straight seasons.

It was up in 2012 despite the fact that the oWAR for the team was worse than 2011 (14.0 in ’12 compared to 19.9 in ’11). It was the dWAR that improved dramatically, going from -5.4 in 2011 to 1.0 in 2012.

That’s where the good news ends, though. In both 2011 and 2012, the combined WAR for the non-pitchers was less than half of what it was in 2007. In 2007, the Phils were first in the NL in oWAR and second in dWAR.

In 2008, the team’s dWAR was 7.0, which was best in the NL. By 2010, the defense had slipped a lot and was down to -0.6. Howard put up a -2.3 dWAR that year and ugliness from Ibanez (-2.0) and Werth (-1.2) contributed as well. By 2011 the problem was even more dramatic as the team’s dWAR of -5.4 was third worst among the 16 NL teams. Again, Ibanez (-3.1) and Howard (-2.4) led the anti-charge, joined by Francisco (-1.3) and Brown (-1.2).

This Phils bounced back some in 2012. Ibanez and Francisco left. Brown got a little better. Howard played less and posted a dWAR of just -1, which was his best mark since 2005 (although Wigginton and Nix didn’t help much filling in for him at first). Freddy Galvis was solid defensively when he played.

The oWAR for the last ten seasons peaked in 2007 at 27.3. The Phillies led the NL in runs scored that year with 892. Their oWAR of 27.3 led the league and it wasn’t real close. The Mets were second at 22.7. Utley (5.9), Rollins (5.5), Rowand (4.5), Howard (3.2) and Burrell (3.0) all put up an oWAR of three or better that season.

The oWAR of 14.0 for the Phillies in 2012 was the lowest it has been since 2000, when the team’s oWAR for the year was an NL-worst 6.7. That was remarkable in that the Phillies had two players with an oWAR of 3.6 or better for the season — Abreu at 4.6 and Rolen at 3.6. The Phillies had ten players that year who got at least 100 plate appearances and put up a negative oWAR.


Who are these %$#@! guys?

I don’t think we’re going to know for sure who’s on the NLDS roster for the Reds until Wednesday, but I’m going to guess the offensively they will have their eight regulars plus Hanigan, Janish, Heisey, Cairo, Francisco and Nix.

If that guess is right, they would have ten right-handed hitters for the series with the Phils. Regulars Ramon Hernandez, Brandon Phillips, Orlando Cabrera, Scott Rolen, Jonny Gomes and Drew Stubbs and reserves Ryan Hanigan, Paul Janish, Chris Heisey and Miguel Cairo.

Of those ten righties, five have been pretty good against right-handed pitching this season:


PA

BA OBP SLG OPS
Chris Heisey 126 0.321 0.389 0.536 0.925
Scott Rolen 359 0.295 0.343 0.517 0.860
Miguel Cairo 152 0.304 0.353 0.459 0.813
Ramon Hernandez 266 0.295 0.360 0.426 0.786
Ryan Hanigan 170 0.304 0.379 0.392 0.771

So the bad news is that’s five righties who hit right-handed pitching pretty well. The good news is that Hanigan and Hernandez can’t catch at the same time and Cairo and Heisey will likely be coming off the bench.

The other five righties have been less impressive against right-handed pitching this year:


PA BA OPB SLG OPS
Drew Stubbs 398 0.262 0.338 0.427 0.765
Brandon Phillips 496 0.268 0.336 0.405 0.741
Jonny Gomes 375 0.257 0.301 0.408 0.709
Paul Janish 153 0.237 0.311 0.356 0.667
Orlando Cabrera 388 0.240 0.275 0.326 0.601

I think we should expect to see a lot of Cabrera, Gomes, Phillips and Stubbs in the series. All four of them have had some problems with righties this season and gotten a lot of opportunities.

If the roster guess is right, there will be four lefty hitters for the Reds. Starters Joey Votto and Jay Bruce and bench players Juan Francisco and Laynce Nix. Francisco only got 55 at-bats all season and didn’t fare exceptionally well against anyone. He hit 283/340/413 in 46 at-bats against righties and went 2-for-9 against lefties.

Votto, as you probably know, hammered right-handed pitching this year. Bruce and Nix were also good, but not quite as terrifying:


PA BA OBP SLG OPS
Joey Votto 414 0.347 0.442 0.673 1.115
Jay Bruce 394 0.283 0.353 0.469 0.821
Laynce Nix 163 0.289 0.346 0.45 0.795

Here’s what those lefties did against left-handed pitching this year:


PA BA OBP SLG OPS
Jay Bruce 179 0.277 0.352 0.547 0.899
Laynce Nix 19 0.313 0.389 0.5 0.889
Joey Votto 234 0.283 0.393 0.47 0.863

If you’ve been losing sleep wondering what lefty on the Phils is going to get out Votto and Bruce, you might want to take a break. The numbers above suggest you might not need a lefty to go after Bruce. He has actually been better against left-handed pitching than right this season. He has hit for about the same average, but walked at a higher rate and delivered extra-base hits at a better rate. That’s a little curious given that in 2009 he was awful against lefties, hitting 210/313/330 against them while he blasted 20 home runs in 245 at-bats against righties.

Still, given what he’s done this year I feel okay using a righty against him. Votto is good against lefties, but has been significantly better against righties over his career.

Here’s what the 14 players, both lefties and righties, did over the last 14 days of the regular season:


PA BA OBP SLG OPS
Ryan Hanigan 16 0.571 0.625 0.714 1.339
Jay Bruce 31 0.370 0.452 0.815 1.266
Joey Votto 28 0.333 0.464 0.667 1.131
Drew Stubbs 37 0.333 0.459 0.633 1.093
Brandon Phillips 35 0.345 0.429 0.586 1.015
Chris Heisey 16 0.313 0.313 0.563 0.875
Miguel Cairo 14 0.333 0.429 0.417 0.845
Laynce Nix 9 0.286 0.444 0.286 0.730
Jonny Gomes 35 0.294 0.314 0.412 0.726
Juan Francisco 12 0.273 0.333 0.364 0.697
Ramon Hernandez 21 0.222 0.333 0.222 0.556
Paul Janish 21 0.167 0.250 0.222 0.472
Orlando Cabrera 25 0.182 0.208 0.227 0.436
Scott Rolen 26 0.160 0.192 0.160 0.352

The bad news there is that Votto and Bruce come into the series hot. Bruce is 10-for-his-last-25 with four home runs. Votto 8-for-his-last-25 with three home runs.

Stubbs was hitting 237/307/401 for the year at the end of the day on September 6. He has hit 350/442/675 over his last 95 plate appearances.

Phillips tore things up over the last two weeks, but that’s a recent development. Between September 3 and September 24 he went 12-for-83 with a double and a home run, posting a 145/220/181 line. He finished the regular season going 6-for-13.

Gomes hit .364 in May and .246 in all the other months combined. He put up a 301/320/438 line over 19 games to end the season.

Hernandez is hitting 257/341/338 over 85 plate appearances since August 23.

Cabrera and Rolen both coming into the series in a funk. Cabrera went 2-for-5 with a double to end the season, but had been 6-for-his-last-39 with a double before that (154/195/179). The difference between Rolen and Cabrera is that Cabrera is a bad offensive player playing badly while Rolen has been a great offensive player but is playing badly. Rolen was hitting 303/374/542 at the end of the day on August 17. He has gotten 144 plate appearances since in which he has hit 234/313/375.

This is no time for him to wake up.

Did you know there is a Start Log for playoff starts since 2007? There is.


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