Tag: Roy Halladay

Hopefully there’s a third site out there somewhere that thinks they won it all last year

I’ll keep looking.

The last post looked at the Baseball-Reference calculated WAR for the top two Phillie pitchers in recent years relative to the accumulated WAR for all pitchers on the team. In this post I’ve done the same using WAR data calculated by FanGraphs and the results are even less impressive. Using the FanGraphs data, you have to go back more than twenty years to find a year in which 1) the percentage of the WAR generated by the top two Phillie pitchers relative to the total WAR generated by all the team’s pitchers was as high as it was in 2013 or 2) the combined WAR for all Phillie pitchers other than the top two was as low as it was in 2013. Both of those things last happened in 1992.

The data on the top two pitchers by WAR and the combined WAR for the others on that year’s staff are below. There’s a good chance it includes names you haven’t thought about in the context of leading the Phillie pitching staff in WAR for a long time, probably ever, including Cory Lidle, Kevin Millwood, Randy Wolf, Vicente Padilla, Robert Person, Curt Schilling, Carlton Loewer, Mark Portugal, Mark Leiter, Sid Fernandez, Danny Jackson, Heathcliff Slocumb, Tommy Greene and Terry Mulholland.

Year Top 2 fWAR P Total P fWAR fWAR top 2 Top 2 % other P
’13 Lee (5.1), Hamels (4.2) 10.5 9.3 89 1.2
’12 Lee (4.9), Hamels (4.5) 19.0 9.4 49 9.6
’11 Halladay (8.1), Lee (6.5) 26.2 14.6 56 11.6
’10 Halladay (6.1), Hamels (3.5) 16.2 9.6 59 6.6
’09 Hamels (3.6), Lee (2.3) 11.5 5.9 51 5.6
’08 Hamels (4.3), Moyer (2.5) 14.1 6.8 48 7.3
’07 Hamels (3.7), Moyer (1.8) 8.2 5.5 67 2.7
’06 Myers (3.3), Hamels (2.4) 12.1 5.7 47 6.4
’05 Lidle (3.3), Myers (3.1) 13.9 6.4 46 7.5
’04 Millwood (2.6), Wolf (1.5) 11.0 4.1 37 6.9
’03 Millwood (4.5), Padilla (2.5) 15.5 7.0 45 8.5
’02 Wolf (3.7), Padilla (3.3) 11.3 7.0 62 4.3
’01 Wolf (3.3), Person (1.6) 12.6 4.9 39 7.7
’00 Person (3.4), Wolf (2.9) 10.6 6.3 59 4.3
’99 Schilling (3.4), Loewer (1.6) 8.5 5.0 59 3.5
’98 Schilling (8.3), Portugal (1.5) 12.2 9.8 80 2.4
’97 Schilling (8.4), M Leiter (2.0) 13.3 10.4 78 2.9
’96 Schilling (4.7), S Fernandez (1.7) 14.3 6.4 45 7.9
’95 Schilling (2.8), Quantrill (2.2) 11.4 5.0 44 6.4
’94 D Jackson (3.9), Slocumb (1.6) 10.6 5.5 52 5.1
’93 Greene (5.0), Schilling (4.9) 20.4 9.9 49 10.5
’92 Schilling (4.3), Mulholland (4.0) 8.4 8.3 99 0.1

From 1993 to 2012, the pitchers on the Phillies other than the two pitchers with the best fWAR for the team that season averaged about 6.4 fWAR. The combined fWAR of the top two pitchers on the team average about 7.3, which was an average of about 54% of the total fWAR for pitchers on the team.

Just about the only good news on the table above for the ’13 Phillies is that, relative to their own results over the last 22 years, the production of their two best pitchers is still very good. The 9.3 mark for Lee and Hamels combined in 2013 is topped in just six of the 21 years previous to ’13 — each of the last three years, two years in the late 90′s when Schilling was fantastic and 1993 when Schilling and Tommy Greene were both good.

The Schilling-led staffs of ’97 and ’98 came close, both in terms of percentage of total WAR by the top two and combined WAR for everyone other than the top two, but they didn’t get to 2013 levels in either category. That last happened in 1992.

The ’92 Phillies were miserable, going 70-92 to finish sixth in the six-team NL East. They had a fantastic offense that scored 686 runs, which was second-best in the NL that year. The pitching was terrible, allowing 717 runs in a season in which the second-worst team at preventing runs in the league, the Astros, allowed 668. Schilling, Mulholland and Ben Rivera were just about the only positives on the staff for the Phils that season.

If it makes you feel any better, you may remember that the 1993 Phils turned things around. Led by Lenny Dykstra, Darren Daulton, John Kruk and Dave Hollins, they continued to pound the ball offensively, leading the NL with 5.41 runs scored per game in a year in which teams averaged 4.49. On the pitching side, Schilling and Mulholland again pitched well and got a lot of help from Danny Jackson, Larry Anderson and Tommy Greene. They were far from great at preventing runs, but did improve to eighth-best in the 14-team NL in ’93. The combination of great hitting and middle of the pack pitching proved to be enough to top the Braves in a six-game NLCS before dropping the World Series against the Blue Jays in six. The pitching didn’t exactly excel in the World Series that year as the Phils failed to hold a 14-9 lead going into the eighth inning in game four and a 6-5 lead going into the ninth inning of game six.

The Phillies signed outfielders Tony Gwynn Jr and Dave Sappelt to minor league contracts with invites to spring training. The 31-year-old Gwynn struggles with the bat and spent 2013 in the minors, but put up bWARs in the 2.2 to 2.9 range from 2009 to 2011 thanks in large part to solid defense in center field. In 2011, Gwynn played a lot more left than center for the Dodgers, but was very good defensively in left as well. Ben Revere‘s bWAR in 2013 was 0.8. Sappelt’s offensive numbers are also offensive, but again with good defensive numbers, primarily at the corner positions in limited time. Playing Tony Gwynn Jr in center is a much, much better idea than playing John Mayberry or Cesar Hernandez in center, especially if Gwynn can still produce defensively at the position. The problem with that is that the last time anyone gave him significant innings in center was 2012 and, at least according to UZR/150 as calculated by FanGraphs, his defense was way down. Whether Gwynn is part of the answer or not, Hernandez and Mayberry combined to start 68 games in center field for the Phillies in 2013, which is something the team might want to try not doing again for the rest of recorded time. Forty appearances for Frandsen at first should probably go on that list as well.

The Phils also signed catcher Lou Marson to a minor league deal and invited him to spring training. He’s 27 now and has hit .219 in 882 major league plate appearances. He hit 314/433/416 in 395 plate appearances for Double-A Reading in 2008 before being traded to Cleveland in the deal that brought Cliff Lee to Philadelphia for the first time.

They also designated Sebastian Valle for assignment in order to make room for Roberto Hernandez on the 40-man roster. Wasn’t expecting that one. Valle hit 203/245/359 in 379 plate appearances at Reading in 2013.

Rate hike

Questions yesterday about whether opposing hitters were more likely to walk in 2013 when Carlos Ruiz was catching for the Phils. That part’s easy — the answer is yes, they were. The harder part is how important that information is and I’m a lot less sure about that. In order to conclude anything, we’d need to look at more complete information about who was doing the pitching, the game situation and the quality of the hitters they were facing.

Still, the overall results were a little surprising to me. The Phillies used five catchers in 2013: Ruiz, Erik Kratz, Humberto Quintero, Cameron Rupp and Steven Lerud. Here’s the total number of plate appearances each caught and the team’s walk rate with them catching:

BF % of BF BB %
All PHI 6213 100 8.1
Ruiz 3251 52.3 9.0
Kratz 2060 33.2 7.5
Quintero 718 11.6 6.4
Rupp 116 1.9 6.0
Lerud 68 1.1 7.4
Not Ruiz 2962 47.7 7.2

So Ruiz caught 52.3% of the batters and during those plate appearances, Phillie opponents walked 9.0% of the time. The other four catchers caught 47.7% of the time and in those chances opponents walked in 7.2% of their plate appearances.

Here’s the breakdown for the three catchers other than Rupp and Lerud for the eight starting pitchers on the ’13 Phils that got at least eight starts.

Pitcher BF Ruiz Kratz Quintero
Hamels 905 61.8/5.9 26.4/5.9 11.8/2.8
Lee 876 55.0/4.1 39.2/3.2 5.8/2.0
Kendrick 800 38.8/4.2 55.1/6.8 6.1/8.2
Pettibone 437 52.6/10.0 21.3/7.5 26.1/7.0
Lannan 332 57.5/10.5 10.8/5.6 31.6/5.4
Cloyd 282 33.9/11.6 50.7/7.7 -
Halladay 282 50.0/16.3 15.2/11.6 34.8/8.2
Martin 190 66.8/15.7 24.7/10.6 -

So, looking, for example, at the top line, Ruiz caught 61.8% of the batters that Hamels pitched to in 2013 and those batters walked in 5.9% of their plate appearances. Quintero caught 11.8% of the batters Hamels faced in 2013 and those batters walked in 2.8% of their PA.

Cloyd and Martin both pitched to Lerud and Rupp. Those numbers aren’t included above.

Of the eight pitchers listed above, six of them pitched to all three of Ruiz, Kratz and Quintero. Of those six, five, everyone except for Kendrick, issued walks at the highest rate while pitching to Ruiz and the at the lowest rate when pitching to Quintero (for Hamels, the 5.9% to Ruiz is a little higher, 5.903, than his 5.9% to Kratz, which is 5.858).

The other of the six that pitched to all three was Kendrick. He walked batters at his lowest rate while pitching to Ruiz and at his highest while pitching to Quintero. It should be noted that Kendrick’s time pitching to Quintero was especially limited. Quintero was behind the plate for just 49 of the 800 batters that Kendrick faced (6.1%).

The other two pitchers on the list, Cloyd and Martin, didn’t pitch to Quintero, but each of them walked batters at a higher rate while pitching to Ruiz than they did to Kratz.

I think it’s hugely important to remember there are a lot of factors at play. For example, Roy Halladay and Ethan Martin each had very high walk rates for the season, regardless of who was catching them. Ruiz caught more than two-thirds of Martin’s innings and half of Halladay’s, which surely contributed to his walk rate being high relative to other catchers on the team. While the rate that each of those guys allowed walks was higher with Ruiz behind the plate, I still think it’s a leap to attribute much of anything to Ruiz without more complete information about the game situation and the quality of hitters the pitchers were facing.

If you look back at the last few years, it’s also not true to say that batters consistently walk more with Ruiz behind the plate than with someone else catching. It was in 2012, 7.1% for Ruiz and 6.2% for everyone else on the Phils, but in 2011 he was way under the walk rate with others catching (6.4% for Ruiz and 7.2% for everyone else). In both 2009 and 2010, the walk rate for hitters with Ruiz behind the plate was just about the same as the walk rate with anyone else behind the plate (6.8/6.9 in ’10 and 7.9/7.7 in ’09).

Walking all

This post from January, 2011, pointed out that during the 2010 season the Phillies walked just 416 batters, which was the fewest walks issued by any National League team. Not only was it the best mark in the NL that year, it was also the fewest number of walks issued by an NL pitching staff since Expos walked 401 in 1995.

The Phils followed 2010 up with two seasons in which their pitchers walked fewer batters than they had in 2010. They walked 416 in 2010, 404 in 2011 and 409 in 2012.

Today’s point is that those days are gone — if not forever, for a long time. The Phillies didn’t lead the league in fewest walks allowed in 2013 and didn’t come close. Here’s how they’ve ranked in fewest walks issued in the NL over the past five seasons:

Year NL Rank fewest BB
2009 2
2010 1
2011 1
2012 1
2013 9

Coming off of three straight years in which they were the best team in the NL at preventing walks, the Phils walked 506 batters in 2013 in a season when the average NL team walked 481. Only one NL team, the Rockies, pitched fewer innings than the Phillies for the year and Colorado only pitched a third of an inning less than the Phils. The 8.14% of batters that the ’13 Phillie pitchers walked was ninth-best and the 3.17 walks per nine they issued was tenth-best.

Forced to guess, I think I would have likely concluded that the combination of the huge number of innings pitched by Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee from 2009-2012 and their low walk rates carried the Phils to league-best marks in the category. That’s wrong, though, or at least incomplete. A look at the numbers will show that the walk rate for the Phillies other than Halladay, Hamels and Lee has increased significantly.

For example, this post from February, 2011, suggested that while Halladay had a lot to do with the success in 2010 at preventing walks, he wasn’t the only factor. During 2010, Halladay threw 250 2/3 innings for the Phils and walked just 30. However, as impressive as Halladay was at preventing walks, the team’s success in this area wasn’t just about one guy or one performance. If you removed Halladay’s performance from the 2010 numbers, the other Phillie pitchers still issued walks at a lower rate than the Cardinals, the second-best team in the NL at preventing walks in 2010.

That works if you add Hamels, too. In 2010, Lee didn’t pitch for the Phillies, but Halladay and Hamels did. The pitchers on the team other than Halladay and Hamels combined to walk 325 hitters in 997 innings, which is about 2.93 batters per nine innings. That was still, without Halladay, Hamels or Lee (who wasn’t on the team) the best rate of preventing walks in the NL that year. St Louis was second behind the Phils at 2.95. In 2013, the pitchers other than Halladay, Hamels and Lee on the Phillies combined to walk 388 hitters in 931 2/3 innings, which is about 3.75 batters per nine. That rate is worse than the overall rate for any 2013 NL team. By a lot. The Cubs had the worst rate of allowing walks in 2013 — they walked about 3.36 batters per nine innings in 2013.

So, again, in 2010, the Phillie pitchers other than Halladay, Hamels and Lee were better than any other NL team at preventing walks, but by 2013 the Phillie pitchers other than Halladay, Hamels and Lee were worse than any other NL team at preventing walks.

This article points out that the Phillies were miserable at preventing walks in the minors this year, too, and suggests that not walking everyone will be a focus next year.

Worser by far

The point of the last post was that the Phillies were extremely bad in 2013, perhaps better than only the Marlins in the 15-team National League.

Today’s point is that relative to the rest of the league, the Phillies were worse at preventing runs last year than they were at scoring them. That’s not to suggest that they couldn’t have been miserable at both — they were, in fact, miserable at both. But worse at preventing them than they were at scoring them.

The Phillies scored 3.77 runs per game in 2013 in a year when the average NL team scored 4.0 runs per game. So they scored about 94% of the average runs per game in the NL for the season.

They allowed about 116% of the average runs allowed in the league for the season, giving up 4.69 runs per game in a year when the average NL team allowed 4.04.

Using runs per game, the Phillies were better than only the Rockies at preventing runs in 2013. The Rockies allowed 4.76 runs per game, a very similar mark to the 4.69 surrendered by the Phillies.

Both the Phils and the Rockies were way above the rest of the NL in runs allowed per game. The Phillies were 14th in the category and the Padres were 13th. San Diego allowed 4.33 runs per game, more than a third of a run less per game than the Phils.

The Phillies also had two outstanding pitchers in Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels — each of them finished the year in the top ten in the NL in WAR for pitchers as calculated by both Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs.

bWAR NL Rank fWAR NL Rank
Lee 7.3 2 5.1 4
Hamels 4.6 7 4.2 8

Lee was top five at each of the sites and Hamels top ten. The problem was pretty much everybody else. Here’s some of the numbers for Lee and Hamels as well as the other pitchers on the team compared to NL averages for 2013:

IP ERA Ratio
Lee and Hamels 442 2/3 3.23 1.08
All other PHI P 993 2/3 4.80 1.50
Team Total 1436 1/3 4.34 1.37
NL Avg - 3.73 1.28

In a year when the average NL pitcher threw to a 3.73 ERA and a 1.28 ratio, all of the pitchers on the Phillies other than Lee and Hamels combined to pitch to a 4.80 ERA with a 1.50 ratio. That requires some pitchers having some miserable years and the Phillies had them. Lannan, Martin, Horst, Cloyd, Halladay, Valdes, Ramirez, Durbin and outfielder Casper Wells all threw to an ERA over 5.00 on the year and everyone on that list other than Lannan threw to an ERA over 6.00. Cloyd, Lannan and Halladay all threw at least 60 innings on the season. Cloyd, Halladay, Martin and Lannan combined to make 46 starts (about 28.4% of the team’s starts) for the season and threw to a 5.97 ERA in in 236 2/3 innings in those starts.

The secret of his successlessness

Roy Halladay made what will probably be his last start with the Phillies last night, facing three batters and walking two of them before leaving the game with a “dead arm.” Halladay came into the game having thrown to an 8.10 ERA over his last seven starts, surrendering 23 walks and seven home runs in 33 1/3 innings. So if whatever’s wrong with Halladay was worse last night, that’s not a good sign.

Dead arm sounds like a bad thing to have if you’re trying to be the best pitcher in the world, but it’s worse than that for Halladay. He seems to have some sort of mystery illness in addition to his arm problem. Whatever the answer proves to be, it’s a sad ending to the year and probably to Halladay’s career as a Phil. He was great very recently and it all unraveled quickly. And if there are people out there who understand why, they haven’t gone out of their way to explain it all to the rest of us yet.

The Phils didn’t score in last night’s game. The Marlins got a run in the first charged to Halladay after Halladay departed and Rosenberg allowed three runs in the eighth on the way to a 4-0 loss. They are 71-85 on the year. They have lost five in a row and are tied with the Mets for third place in the NL East.

Halladay got the start for the Phillies and went a third of an inning, allowing a run on two walks. He faced three batters in the game, walking two and getting the other on a popup to Utley.

Assuming Halladay doesn’t pitch again this season, he ends the year with a 6.82 ERA in his 13 starts. In 62 innings for the year, he walked 36 and allowed 12 home runs. He came into 2013 having walked about 1.5 batters per nine innings in over 2,100 innings from 2003 to 2012. He walked about 5.2 per nine in 2013.

He faced three batters in the bottom of the first. He walked the leadoff man Donovan Solano on four pitches before getting Ed Lucas to pop to Utley in foul territory for the first out. Christian Yelich was next and he walked on five pitches. Dubee came out and talked with Halladay for a long time before Halladay exited the game with one out and men on first and second. Luis Garcia took over and walked the first two batters he faced. The second walk, to Justin Ruggiano with one down and the bases loaded, forced Solano home to put the Fish up 1-0. Garcia got Polanco to ground into a double-play to end the inning.

Garcia pitched the second and the third for the Phils, keeping the Marlins off the board in both of those frames. He allowed a leadoff double to Adeiny Hechavarria in the second, but kept Miami from scoring with the help two plays from Rollins on balls hit well. He allowed two singles and a walk in the third, but retired Hechavarria on a ground ball to third with two outs and the bases loaded to set Miami down.

Garcia went 2 2/3 innings in the game in which he allowed three hits and three walks. He walked the first two hitters he faced in the first and allowed the leadoff man to reach in the other two innings he pitched. He dropped his ERA to 3.99 with the outing, but he has walked 23 in 29 1/3 innings over his 23 appearances on the year. Opponents are on-basing .377 against him for the season. He was extremely fortunate that the only run he allowed while pitching last night was charged to Halladay.

Savery struck out two in a 1-2-3 fourth and got the first two to start the fifth. De Fratus took over with two outs and nobody on to pitch to righty Giancarlo Stanton. Stanton walked and moved to second when Ruggiano followed with a single to left. De Fratus got Polanco to ground to short to leave the runners at first and second.

Savery strikes out three over 1 2/3 innings, which drops his ERA on the year to 3.50 after 16 appearances and 18 innings. He’s allowed just one home run and opponents are only hitting .212 against him, but he’s walked ten in 18 innings. The lefty has been very good against righties while lefties have hit 368/381/526 against him.

De Fratus came back to pitch the sixth. He allowed a leadoff single, but struck out two in the scoreless frame.

De Fratus hasn’t been charged with a run in any of his last eight appearances. Lefties have hit just .178 against the righty, but righties are faring pretty well to the tune of 298/380/387. He’s walked 23 in 45 innings for the year, which is too many, and six over his last 8 1/3 innings.

Martin pitched the seventh, allowing a single and a stolen base, but keeping the score 1-0.

Martin has allowed two runs in six innings in six appearances in relief while striking out nine (3.00 ERA and 1.00 ratio in relief). He has a 6.25 ERA on the season overall and has allowed 23 walks in 36 innings.

Rosenberg started the eighth with the Phillies down a run. Polanco led off with a double to right and stole third with one out. Rosenberg walked each of the next two batters, loading the bases for Solano. Solano singled into center, moving everyone up a base. Polanco scored to make it 2-0 with the bases still loaded. Ed Lucas was next and he singled to right. Again everyone moved up a base with Jeff Mathis scoring from third. 3-0. Jimenez came in to pitch to the lefty Yelich and Yelich flew to center for the second out, deep enough for Greg Dobbs to tag and score from third. 4-0 with men on first and second for Stanton. Rosenberg walked Stanton and the bases were loaded again, this time for Ruggiano. Rosenberg got Ruggiano to fly to center for the third out.

Rosenberg enters in a one-run game and faces six batters, allowing a double, two walks and two singles while getting just one out. Over his last four appearances, Rosenberg has allowed six runs in 3 2/3 innings on eight hits and three walks. He hasn’t allowed a home run to any of the 79 batters he’s faced this season, but still has a 5.09 ERA. Lefties are on-basing .429 against him.

Jimenez faces three batters, getting two outs and allowing a walk. He’s pitched really well for the Phils this year, allowing runs in just two of his 17 appearances while throwing to a 2.35 ERA and a 1.11 ratio. Lefties have a 160/185/200 line against the lefty.

Overall the pen goes 7 2/3 innings in the game, allowing three runs on nine hits and seven walks while striking out eight. Seven is more batters than you should try to walk in 7 2/3 innings. Garcia threw 49 pitches in the game, Rosenberg 32 and De Fratus 24. Rosenberg had an awful day, allowing three runs in the eighth. Garcia walked the first two batters he faced after taking over for Halladay, issuing a bases-loaded walk to force in the first run in the first.

The Phillie lineup against righty Nathan Eovaldi went (1) Hernandez (2) Rollins (3) Utley (4) Ruiz (5) Brown (6) Ruf (7) Asche (8) Bernadina. Bernadina in right with Ruf at first and Hernandez in center. Bernadina enters the game with a 180/252/300 line for the season in 240 plate appearances.

The Phils went in order in the first. Down 1-0, they went in order in the second.

Bernadina singled to right with one out in the third. Luis Garcia and Hernandez both struck out behind him.

Career plate appearance number two for Garcia. 0-for-2.

The Phils went in order in the fourth. Asche walked with two outs in the fifth, but Bernadina popped to third for the third out.

Rollins lined a double to right with two outs in the fifth. Utley grounded to third to set the Phillies down.

Rollins is hitting 313/413/453 in September and 378/462/556 over his last 52 plate appearances.

Ruf singled to center with two outs in the sixth. Asche flew to left to leave him stranded.

Hernandez walked with two outs in the eighth and the Phils still down a run. Lefty Mike Dunn came in to face Rollins and retired Rollins on a fly ball to center for the third out.

The Fish bring in a lefty to face Rollins with two outs and a man on. His numbers against lefties and righties are very similar for the year, but with a little more power against righties.

Righty Steve Cishek pitched the ninth for Miami. Brown singled to left with two outs, but Ruf grounded to second for the third out.

Three singles, a double and two walks for the Phillies in the game.

Hernandez was 0-for-3 with a walk in the game. 353/441/412 over his last 59 plate appearances, but just 2-for-his-last-15. 322/403/390 against righties and 257/297/286 against lefties.

Rollins 1-for-4 with a double. He has at least one hit in 11 of his last 12 games.

Utley 0-for-4 with a strikeout. Came into the game 10-for-his-last-25 (.400) with a double and two home runs.

Ruiz 0-for-4. 2-for-his-last-27 (.074) with two singles.

Brown 1-for-4. 6-for-his-last-16 with four walks and a .500 on-base percentage in those 20 plate appearances. One RBI in 35 plate appearances since his return.

Ruf 1-for-4 with a strikeout. 229/332/444 over his last 177 plate appearances. He has struck out 83 times in 273 plate appearances, which is about 30.4% of the time. At that pace he would strike out 182 times in 600 plate appearances. Pedro Alvarez is the only NL player with 182 or more strikeouts this season. Alvarez has struck out 183 times in 594 chances, which is about 30.8% of the time.

Asche 0-for-2 with a walk. 1-for-his-last-14 with two walks and a double.

Bernadina 1-for-2 to raise his average to .183. 5-for-his-last-12 with three walks.

Miner (0-1, 3.22) faces righty Henderson Alvarez (4-5, 4.05) tonight. It will be Miner’s second start of the year after throwing three scoreless innings against the Marlins his last time out. The start will come off of a game in which the Phillie bullpen threw 7 2/3 innings in relief of Halladay. Alvarez has a 5.30 ERA over his last seven starts, but has allowed just two home runs in 86 2/3 innings on the year.

Leaving on a jet plane

Roy Halladay started in Citizens Bank Park last night for what may be the last time. Halladay looks likely to make two more starts for the Phils this year, both of which will come on the road. He pitched well, holding the Marlins to a run over six innings as the Phils topped the Fish 6-4.

The reality of Halladay’s likely departure punches another hole in the battered psyche of Phillie fans who have just seen Charlie Manuel swept aside. If Halladay leaves, he will do so having delivered dominant performances in 2010 and again in 2011, but without winning the World Series he came here to win through little fault of his own.

Halladay was one of baseball’s elite players in both 2010 and 2011, winning the Cy Young in 2010 and finishing second to Clayton Kershaw in ’11. The Phillies had the best record in baseball in both those years, but twice suffered devastating losses in the post-season, denying Halladay even the chance to pitch in the World Series.

In 2010, Halladay walked one in a no-hitter in his first ever post-season start as the Phils topped the Reds 4-0. The Phils would beat the Reds in the series before falling to the Giants in a six-game NLCS.

In 2011, Halladay and the Phils again had the best record in baseball, but didn’t even make it out of the NLDS with the Cards. Halladay got the win in game one of the set, allowing a three-run homer to Lance Berkman in the first, but following it up with seven shutout innings as the Phils topped St Louis 11-6. He allowed a run in eight innings in the deciding game five six days later, but it wasn’t good enough. Chris Carpenter threw a complete-game shutout and the Phils were eliminated with the 1-0 loss.

Last night Halladay held the Marlins to a run over six innings. The Phillies jumped out to an early 6-1 lead, thanks to a three-run homer and four RBI from Utley. The pen struggled late, allowing two runs in the eighth and another in the ninth, but the Phils hung on to win for the fifth time in seven games.

The Phillies are 71-80 on the year after beating the Miami Marlins 6-4 last night. They are 5-2 in their last seven and 8-3 over their last 11.

Halladay got the start for the Phils and went six innings, allowing a run on four hits and three walks. One of the hits went for extra-bases, a double. He struck out two.

Halladay drops his ERA to 4.28 in his five starts since his return with the outing. After three more walks last night, though, he’s walked 17 in 27 1/3 innings in those starts. Did not allow a home run last night and home runs have been a big part of his problems this year. He’s allowed one in 16 1/3 innings over his last three starts and three in 27 1/3 innings in his five starts since rejoining the team. He allowed nine in 34 1/3 innings in his first seven starts this year.

He didn’t allow a run in the first four innings. He allowed a two-out single in the top of the first, a leadoff walk in the second, a two-out single in the third. In the fourth he hit Giancarlo Stanton with one out and walked Chris Coghlan with two down before retiring Adeiny Hechavarria on a ground ball to short to set the Marlins down.

He started the fifth and allowed a run on a two-out double by Donovan Solano that was followed with an Ed Lucas single to left. 3-1.

Halladay was ahead of Lucas 1-2 when Lucas chopped a bleeder through the short/third base hole to get the Marlins their first run.

Up 6-1, Halladay set the Marlins down in order in the sixth.

De Fratus pitched the seventh. With one out, lefty Juan Pierre lined a double to right. De Fratus got the next two leave Pierre at second.

With the hit, Pierre passed Joe DiMaggio and is 175th all-time for career hits. Pierre has 2,215 hits in 8,268 plate appearances with a .295 average. DiMaggio hit .325 with 2,214 hits in 7,673 plate appearances.

De Fratus dropped his ERA to 4.29 with the outing. He hasn’t been charged with a run in four innings over his last five appearances. He had a 1.46 ERA after his first 16 appearances on the year and then got hammered in 14 chances between June 16 and July 19, throwing to an 11.88 ERA and a 3.24 ratio in those 14 appearances. Things have calmed since and he’s thrown to a 2.95 ERA in his 23 appearances since July 19. Overall, the righty has been good against lefties, but righties are on-basing .374 against him for the season.

Rosenberg started the eighth with the Phils still up by five runs. Lefty Christian Yelich led off with a single and scored on a one-out double to the gap in right-center by righty Justin Ruggiano . 6-2 with Ruggiano on second. Rosenberg retired Chris Coghlan for the second out on a ground ball that moved Ruggiano up to third. Hechavarria was next and singled into center, scoring Ruggiano. 6-3 with a man on first for the left-handed pinch-hitter Greg Dobbs. Diekman came in to pitch to Dobbs and righty Placido Polanco hit for Dobbs. Diekman got Polanco swinging to set Florida down.

Rosenberg had been on a monster role coming into the game, throwing 12 1/3 scoreless innings in which he had allowed just four hits and five walks over his last 14 appearances. He faced five hitters in the game and allowed two runs on two singles and a double.

Diekman faced one batter in the game and struck him out. Over his last 15 appearances, Diekman has allowed one run on five hits and two walks while striking out 21 in 13 1/3 innings. That’s not a typo — he’s struck out 21 in his last 13 1/3 innings.

Papelbon pitched the ninth. He got the first two before allowing back-to-back singles, which brought Stanton to the plate with two down and men on first and second. Stanton singled to center, scoring Lucas and making it 6-4 with men on first and second for Ruggiano. Papelbon got Ruggiano 3-2 to end the game.

Six batters in the game for Papelbon. He allows a run on three singles. The first one, by Lucas with two outs and nobody on, wasn’t hit especially hard. Papelbon came into the game with a 1.38 ERA over his last 13 appearances, having allowed one run in 13 innings. He’s walked just one of the last 56 batters that he’s faced over his last 14 innings.

Overall the pen goes three innings in the game, allowing three runs on seven hits and no walks. They struck out four. De Fratus and Diekman combined to go 1 1/3 scoreless innings while Papelbon and Rosenberg allowed three runs in 1 2/3 frames.

The Phillie lineup against lefty Brian Flynn went (1) Hernandez (2) Rollins (3) Utley (4) Ruiz (5) Brown (6) Ruf (7) Frandsen (8) Galvis. Ruf in right and Brown in left with Hernandez at center. The lefty Asche on the bench with Galvis playing third. Asche is 7-for-29 against lefties for his career. Seems like he could use all the at-bats against them that he can get, especially if he’s the everyday guy for 2014. Frandsen plays first against the lefty, which is at least better than Frandsen playing first against a righty. Mayberry on the bench against the lefty. So the plan was to try and make Mayberry an everyday center fielder and now that that didn’t work, he’s on the bench against lefties so that Frandsen can play first? Not a fan of that plan. Frandsen’s 31, not a first baseman, on-basing .298 for the year and .317 for his career.

Utley singled to right with two outs in the bottom of the first, but Ruiz grounded to short for the third out.

Ruf singled to center with one out in the second. Frandsen was next and singled to right. Ruf tried to go to third, where Stanton threw him out for the second out. Galvis grounded to third on a very nice play by Coghlan to end the inning.

Stanon made a pretty nice throw to get Ruf for the second out. Coghlan made a nice play to get Galvis.

Hernandez and Rollins singled back-to-back with one out in the third, putting men on first and second for Utley. Utley singled to left. The throw came home and Hernandez slid in safely (1-0), allowing the runners to move up to second and third. Ruiz was next and he lined an 0-1 pitch back up the middle for a single, which scored both runners and put the Phils up 3-0. With Brown at the plate Ruiz tried to go first to third on a wild pitch but was thrown out at third for the second out. Brown grounded to short to set the Phillies down.

Second time in two innings that the Phils give away on an out on the bases. Ruf made the second out in the second trying to go first to third on Frandsen’s single. Ruiz made the second out in the third trying to go first to third on a wild pitch.

Ruf walked to start the fourth, but Frandsen grounded into a double-play behind him. Galvis flew to center for the third out.

Hernandez and Rollins singled back-to-back with one out in the fifth and the lead cut to 3-1, putting runners on the corners for Utley. Utley hit a 1-0 pitch from Flynn out to right for a three-run homer. 6-1. Ruiz and Brown went down behind Utley.

Second three-run homer for Utley in two days. He’s 5-for-9 with eight RBI in the first two games of the set. This one comes off of the lefty Flynn. Utley ends the day with a 236/316/436 line against lefties.

Ruf singled to start the sixth and Frandsen again grounded into a double-play behind him. Galvis flew to right for the third out.

Second time in three innings that Ruf reached base to start the frame and Frandsen grounded into a double-play behind him.

The Phillies didn’t score in the seventh or the eighth. Rollins singled with two outs in the seventh, but Utley flew to left behind him. Brown walked with two outs in the eighth, but Frandsen grounded to second for the third out.

Utley has hammered two long home runs to right in the last two days, but is also hitting the ball the opposite way. RBI single to left in the third last night and flew to left in the seventh.

Hernandez was 2-for-4 in the game. 4-for-8 so far in the series. 14-for-his-last-32 (.438) with five walks and a .526 on-base percentage. On-basing .458 against righties for the year in 48 plate appearances.

Rollins 3-for-4. 5-for-his-last-8. 12-for-his-last-27 (.444). 326/426/457 in September. On-basing .398 over his last 108 plate appearances.

Rollins and Hernandez go 5-for-8 at the top of the order for the Phils in the game.

Utley 3-for-4 with a three-run homer and four RBI. 5-for-his-last-8 with two home runs. 348/380/530 over his last 71 plate appearances.

Hernandez, Rollins and Utley combine to go 8-for-12 in the game with Utley’s homer, which was the only extra-base hit for the team.

Ruiz 1-for-4 with two RBI. 1-for-his-last-9.

Brown 0-for-3 with a walk. 2-for-13 with a double and two walks since his return.

Ruf 2-for-3 with a walk. Went 2-for-2 with a walk against the lefty Flynn before a righty struck him out in the eighth. That’s very good, cause he needs to hammer lefties and he hasn’t been doing it. His line against left-handed pitching is up to 190/311/349 with the big day against Flynn.

Frandsen 1-for-4 and grounded into two double-plays. 1-for-his-last-10 coming off a stretch where he went 13-for-44 (.295) with five extra-base hits. Hitting .196 and on-basing .243 against righties, but his line against lefties is looking good again at 314/410/471.

Galvis 0-for-3. Came into the game 8-for-his-last-15. Career on-base percentage of .271 in 404 plate appearances in the majors and .290 in 2,445 plate appearances in the minors. Has a negative dWAR for the year as calculated by Baseball-Reference. FanGraphs suggests that his defense in the outfield has been great, but bad while playing second and not very special at short. He’s going to need to be an elite defensive player if he’s going to help the Phillies.

Kendrick (10-13, 4.70) faces righty Nathan Eovaldi (3-6, 3.80) tonight. Kendrick has a 6.91 ERA over his last 11 starts and a 7.71 ERA over his last three. He’s walked ten in 22 1/3 innings over his last four starts. He’s not pitching very well. Two of Eovaldi’s last five starts have been really bad — he has a 6.00 ERA over those five appearances and opponents have hit .341 against him. He threw to a 1.71 ERA in the three starts of the five that were non-awful, allowing four earned runs over 21 innings. He’s been way better on the road than at home, throwing to a 2.72 ERA with a 1.15 ratio in his eight starts on the road and a 5.21 ERA with a 1.65 ratio in his seven starts at home.

Update: Zach Miner will make the start for Kendrick tonight. Kendrick was scratched with a sore shoulder. Miner started 12 games for Lehigh Valley this season and last started in the majors in 2009.

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