Tag: Ronny Paulino

Jack and Giles

The biggest news of the past three days is that the Phils traded Ronny Paulino to the Giants for left-handed pitcher Jack Taschner. The Giants then traded Paulino to the Marlins.

The Phillies also released Brian Giles and sent John Mayberry and Carlos Carrasco to minor league camp. The linked article also says that Mike Koplove and Pablo Ozuna will not make the opening day roster.

I’m not a fan of the Paulino trade. I’d rather have Paulino than Taschner and would have liked to see the Phils give Happ a chance to pitch out of the pen to start the year. I would love to see it happen, but it’s hard to imagine that Taschner is going to make a significant positive contribution to the Phils this year. Despite a miserable spring, I have much less trouble imaging Paulino help a team this season.

In terms of the Phillies opening day roster, I think it leaves us with 12 hitters surely on the team: Howard, Utley, Rollins, Feliz, Ruiz, Coste, Ibanez, Victorino, Werth, Bruntlett, Jenkins and Dobbs.

Jenkins is the guy who is questionable on that list, but I would be surprised to see the Phillies trade or release him.

That leaves Stairs and Cairo as the 13th and maybe the 14th hitter if the Phils carry 14. Stairs still seems to be a candidate for a trade, but it hasn’t happened yet.

These ten pitchers seem sure to be on the team: Hamels, Blanton, Myers, Moyer, Park, Madson, Condrey, Eyre, Durbin and Lidge. Taschner, Happ and Majewski look like the guys that will fill out the staff. I would say that the chances are good that Taschner will make the team given his contract — I think that would be a mistake, though, and hope the Phils send him down to start the year. Assuming they don’t, it would seemingly leave Happ and Majewski both out if the Phils carry both Stairs and Cairo at the start of the season.

The Phillies have played three games since the last post. After going 1-2 they are 11-16 this spring.

Yesterday they pounded the Astros 13-3. Park got the start and allowed two runs over 5 2/3 innings on six hits and a walk. Only one of the runs was earned and he struck out seven. In 21 1/3 innings this spring, Park has a 2.53 ERA and a 1.03 ratio. He has struck out 25 and walked two. Really he has. Condrey and Koplove both tossed scoreless innings as well.

The Phillies got home runs from Ruiz, Rollins, Bruntlett and Howard in the game. Bruntlett was 3-for-4 with four RBI and is hitting .364. Ruiz was 1-for-4 and is hitting .367. Rollins went 2-for-4 to raise his batting average to .280. Ibanez 1-for-1 with two walks.

Sunday Boston topped the Phils 3-1.

Blanton pitched very well, allowing two runs on four hits and a walk over 6 1/3 innings. Chris Carter hit a solo home run off of him in the second, but the other three hits went for singles. Durbin allowed a run in the eighth to raise his spring ERA to 1.69. Madson kept the Red Sox off the board in the ninth to drop his ERA to 2.19.

A walk to Howard in the third forced in Rollins for the Phillies’ only run of the game. Ibanez went 3-for-4 in the game to raise his average to .290.

On Saturday the Pirates beat the Phillies 10-4.

Moyer got the start and got blasted, charged with seven runs over 5 2/3 innings on 11 hits and a walk. He struck out seven but gave up six extra-base hits, five doubles and a home run. His spring ERA raised to 5.40. Majewski threw a scoreless seventh to drop his ERA to 3.00. Lidge allowed a three-run homer to Garrett Jones in the eighth.

Ruiz had a double and a two-run homer. Howard hit a solo shot, his eighth of the spring.

Happ also pitched in a minor league game on Saturday morning and allowed five runs over 5 1/3 innings.

Cole Hamels will not start opening day.

Chan Ho Park didn’t go with whatever’s-best-for-the-team when asked if he would be upset if didn’t win the fifth starter spot. Park has been outstanding this spring and outpitched the other players who were said to be competing for the job.

The Phillies play the Blue Jays tonight with Brett Myers expected to pitch.

Francisco Rodriguez and Brad Lidge won’t both win the Rolaids Relief Man Award this season. You can follow the leaderboard here.

Update: The Phillies released Geoff Jenkins. So I guess I’m surprised.

More update: Chan Ho Park has won the fifth starter job.


2009 one last time

We won’t have to wait that much longer to actually see who’s going to be on the Phillies opening day roster, so here’s my final guess.

Still looks like ten hitters we know for sure are on the squad:


Player

Position
1
Ryan Howard

1B
2 Chase Utley
2B
3
Jimmy Rollins

SS
4
Pedro Feliz

3B
5
Shane Victorino

OF
6
Jayson Werth

OF
7
Raul Ibanez

OF
8
OF
9
Carlos Ruiz
C
10 C
11
Eric Bruntlett

UT
12
Greg Dobbs

3B/OF
13
UT
14

Assuming the Phils start the year with 13 hitters, which I think they will, there are three spots left. One has to go to a catcher and another to a fourth outfielder.

The top candidates for the three spots look to include Marcus Giles, Miguel Cairo, Pablo Ozuna, Ronny Paulino, Chris Coste, John Mayberry, Matt Stairs and Geoff Jenkins.

Of the three spots, one has to go to either Paulino or Coste. Jenkins is a strong front-runner for the second. I think Jenkins is on the team as the fourth outfielder, partly because he’s harder to trade than Stairs because of his contract. He is also far better defensively.

One of Coste or Paulino has to make the team as the second catcher along with Ruiz. Both can be sent to the minors if they’re still in the organization when the season starts and both have been awful this spring. Paulino has hit just 185/267/333 in 27 at-bats. Coste has been slowed by injury and gone just 2-for-18 (.111) with two singles.

I’ve been saying all along that I thought Paulino would make the team. He has gotten a big chance this spring and done nothing with it. Multiple reports, including this one, suggest the Phillies are looking to trade Paulino. The linked article suggests Robert Andino as possible fruit of a Paulino trade. Ew. I would be a little surprised to see Paulino traded, I’ve been assuming Coste is the guy they want to trade. I’m going to flip on this one nonetheless and guess Coste at this point.

That leaves one spot for Cairo, Ozuna, Paulino, Giles, Mayberry or Stairs. I don’t think the Phils will keep three catchers, especially given how badly Paulino has hit this spring. Giles also got a chance, but he has hit just 182/289/273 in 33 at-bats this spring. Despite his solid 279/323/525 line this spring, I think Mayberry is going to the minors. His .323 on-base percentage shouldn’t be overlooked, given that his career on-base percentage in the minors is .330.

I would be more surprised to see the Phils keep Ozuna than Cairo. Ozuna has actually outhit Cairo. Pablo has been on fire this spring and put up a 364/432/455 line in 33 at-bats compared to an also impressive 302/348/535 line for Cairo over 43 at-bats. My guess is if it’s one or the other it will be Cairo rather than Ozuna, mostly just based on the fact that the Phils have given Cairo more time this spring.

That leaves Stairs. I would guess that he will not be with the organization when the season starts. If he is, though, he’s on the team, either in the spot I just gave to Cairo or as the 14th hitter with the Phils going with 11 pitchers.

Ten of the Phillies pitching spots are likely to be filled by these guys:


Player

Position
1
Cole Hamels (left)

SP
2
Brett Myers (right)

SP
3
Joe Blanton (right)

SP
4
Jamie Moyer (left)

SP
5
SP
6
Ryan Madson (right)
 RP
7
Chan Ho Park (right)

SP/RP
8
Clay Condrey (right)

RP
9
Scott Eyre (left)

RP
10
Chad Durbin (right)

RP
11  
RP
12
Brad Lidge (right)

CLOSER

In part because of the minor injury problems with Hamels and Park, I think the Phillies will go with 12 pitchers to start the season despite having three off-days before they play their eighth came of the season. Especially with Hamels having been unable to work up his pitch counts, I think the Phils will want to carry seven relievers.

I think Park won the fifth starter’s job this spring. I think Happ is still on the team to pitch out of the pen as the second lefty. That assumes the Phillies do not add another lefty before the start of the season.

That leaves one spot, assuming the Phils carry 12 pitchers. I think that goes to Majewski or Koplove and both have been very good this spring. Majewski has a 3.27 ERA and a 1.27 ratio in 11 innings. Koplove has pitched less, just 6 1/3 innings, but thrown to a 1.42 ERA with a 1.11 ratio. I think it’s interesting that Majewkski has thrown significantly more innings than Koplove, which may mean the Phils are leaning that way. I think Koplove has a better chance to make a significant positive contribution this season, though, so that’s the way I’ll guess.

That slot seems like it would be the one to go if the Phils carried just 11 pitchers, presumably with Stairs being the 14th hitter. The other issue is that if Stairs does get traded, the deal may bring in a player that will start the year with the team and take up a roster spot. That move would also presumably knock off Majewski or Koplove. It could also knock off Happ for the first few games of the season if he proved to be the winner of the fifth starter competition rather than a guy who will pitch out of the pen.

Here’s my guess then:

Hitters (13): Howard, Utley, Rollins, Feliz, Ibanez, Victorino, Werth, Ruiz, Bruntlett, Dobbs, Jenkins, Coste, Cairo.

Pitchers (12): Hamels, Myers, Blanton, Moyer, Park, Madson, Happ, Condrey, Eyre, Durbin, Koplove, Lidge.

The Phillies did not play yesterday. They play the Yankees today with Carlos Carrasco expected to pitch.

Philliesflow still has a Twitter page.


What a difference a duck makes

More on walks, this time using career numbers to look at the difference between the rate 13 potentially key Phillies for ’09 walk with the bases empty and with the bases not empty. For each of the hitters, here’s the percentage of their plate appearances where they’ve walked when they came to the plate with men on base, the percentage of their plate appearances where they’ve walked when they came up with the bases empty and the difference between the two:

 
Men on

Bases Empty
 

Player

% BB

% BB

Difference

Ryan Howard

17.1

9.7

7.4

Ronny Paulino

9.3

5.2

4.1

Jimmy Rollins

9.2

6.3

2.9

Geoff Jenkins

9.5

6.6

2.9

Raul Ibanez

9.5

7.4

2.1

Carlos Ruiz

11.2

9.6

1.6

Greg Dobbs

6.6

5.3

1.3

Eric Bruntlett

9.6

8.8

0.9

Shane Victorino

7.1

6.3

0.8

Chase Utley

9.1

8.3

0.8

Jayson Werth

12.0

11.4

0.6

Pedro Feliz

5.4

5.1

0.4

Chris Coste

4.4

4.8

-0.4

Enormous difference for Ryan Howard, who was walked about 1.76 times as often with men aboard than he has with the bases empty. On the other end of the scale, Chris Coste is the only player in the group who has walked less often with men on base than with the bases empty.

Who is hitting behind you no doubt has an impact on how often you walk with men on base. Chase Utley, for example, has a walk rate over his career with men on base that’s very similar to his walk rate with the bases empty, which may have a lot to do with all the time he’s spent hitting ahead of Ryan Howard.

Others are a little harder to explain. Pedro Feliz and Ronny Paulino have walked at about the same rate with the bases empty, but Paulino has walked at a much higher rate with men on base.

One thing I do wonder about sometimes is whether the Phillies would be better off hitting Victorino first and Rollins second, assuming that those two guys are going to hit one and two in the order anyway. I think I would still go with Rollins hitting leadoff, but over their careers they have walked at a very similar rate with the bases empty while Rollins has drawn walks more of the time when he came to the plate with men aboard. In 2008, both Rollins and Victorino continued to walk at about the same rate with the bases empty. Victorino walked 22 times in 345 plate appearances (6.38% of the time) while Rollins walked 26 times in 406 plate appearances (6.40% of the time). Rollins’ walk numbers with men on base, however, shot way up compared to what he has done for his career. In 2008 he got 219 plate appearances with men aboard and drew 32 walks. That’s about 14.6% of his plate appearances.

Also of note on Rollins is that despite the fact that his offensive numbers overall for 2008 were down compared to ’06 and ’07, he was a monster with the bat with men on base and not just by drawing walks. Rollins got 219 plate appearances with men on base in ’08 and hit .324 and slugged .559. Both of those numbers are near career highs for him with men on base. In 2006 he slugged .560 with men on base and in 2000, in 18 plate appearances, he hit .353 with men on base.

Finally, Bruntlett has walked more often over his career than I would have guessed. Howard, Ruiz and Werth are the only three players of the group of 13 who have walked more than him in their plate appearances with the bases empty. There’s really very little reason for a right-handed pitcher to walk Bruntlett unless he’s hitting in front of the pitcher.

This suggests the Phillies may be interested in Gabe Kapler and Normar Garciaparra as right-handed bats off the bench. Sounds good to me, Phils are going to need more right-handed hitting. Kapler may be easier to use in the field, but either of those guys would help.

Ad: Eagles playoff tickets at TicketCity.


Any Coste that can on-base .330 or so bias

Jayson Werth is the best right-handed hitter for the Phils heading into 2009. But who is second-best? Looking at the 40-man roster, the candidates include Chris Coste, Lou Marson, Ronny Paulino, Carlos Ruiz, Eric Bruntlett, Pedro Feliz, Brad Harman and John Mayberry. I’m going to eliminate Marson, Harman and Mayberry, who combine to have 14 career at-bats between them. That leaves five. Coste, Paulino, Ruiz, Bruntlett and Feliz.

Here’s what they have done over their careers:

Player PA AVG OBP SLG OPS
Coste 655 288 338 449 788
Feliz 3490 252 290 429 719
Paulino 1110 278 331 382 713
Ruiz 880 242 329 359 688
Bruntlett 777 240 315 344 659

Only two of that group has slugged over .382 for their career, and one of them, Feliz, has a .290 on-base percentage to go with his .429 slugging percentage.

The relatively large number of plate appearances for Paulino may be surprising to some. He caught 124 games for the Pirates in 2006 and 129 in 2007.

Here’s what they have done against lefties:


Vs Left
Player PA AVG OBP SLG OPS
Paulino 288 355 417 498 915
Coste 193 316 361 503 864
Feliz 957 267 312 446 758
Bruntlett 314 269 358 396 754
Ruiz 207 206 307 343 650

Paulino’s numbers against lefties are fantastic. I think we should expect him to make the team and play regularly against lefties, although Manuel has seemingly chosen his starting catcher based on the starting pitcher for the Phillies in recent years. It will be interesting if he continues that pattern given the huge difference between the career numbers against lefties for Paulino and Ruiz (assuming Paulino makes the team).

Ruiz is just miserable against lefties. His career numbers are worse against them than they are against righties.

Coste’s results against left-handed pitching have also been solid. Bruntlett gets on base well against them.

Here are their numbers against righties:


Vs Right
Player PA AVG OBP SLG OPS
Coste 462 276 329 427 756
Feliz 2533 246 282 422 704
Ruiz 673 253 336 364 700
Paulino 822 252 301 343 643
Bruntlett 463 221 286 310 596

Chris Coste’s .756 OPS leads the group. Using OPS, his career line against righties is a tiny bit better than Jayson Werth’s career 251/347/408 (.755 OPS) line against righties. Werth is much better against lefties, though, he has hit to a .920 OPS against them in his career.

Paulino and Bruntlett are both poor hitters against righties. Feliz has the worst on-base percentage of the group.

Coste seems like the rather clear answer to the question, with the note that Paulino has had tremendous success against left-handed pitching in his career. Even though the career numbers for Coste are solid, I think you have to be worried about the Phillies hitting from the right side going into ’09. Even if Coste is on the team, I think we’re likely to see him behind the plate far less often in 2009. There’s a big question about where he’s going to play if he’s going to be anything besides a pinch-hitter. The other thing that I think you have to be concerned about is that he’s going to be 36 when the 2009 season starts. He was fantastic with the bat in 2006, but over the last two years he’s gotten 403 at-bats in which he hit 268/320/422. I think his future numbers are likely to be much closer to that than to the monster 328/376/506 line he posted in 198 at-bats in 2006.

The Phillies also have two big switch-hitters in their lineup. Here are the career numbers for Rollins and Victorino:


Career
Player PA AVG OBP SLG OPS
Rollins 5787 277 333 441 774
Victorino 1701 281 342 421 762

Very similar numbers. Rollins has gotten on base a little less regularly and hit to a slightly higher slugging percentage.

With the dropoff in Rollins’ numbers last season, Victorino was the better hitter of the duo for the first time after being markedly outhit by Rollins in ’06 and ’07. In 2008, Victorino hit 293/352/447, topping Rollins’ 277/349/437 line in all three categories. While it may seem like the difference in their age should be more dramatic, they both have their birthdays in November and Rollins just turned 30 while Victorino turned 28.

Some good news for the Phillies in that both Rollins and Victorino have been better against lefties than righties over their careers, with the difference being more dramatic for Victorino than for Rollins:


Vs Left
Player PA AVG OBP SLG OPS
Victorino 518 279 346 486 832
Rollins 1520 287 342 452 794

Both Rollins and Victorino have posted a better OPS against lefties over their career than all of the right-handed hitters on the list above except for Coste and Paulino.

Here are the numbers against righties:

Vs Right

Player

PA

AVG

OBP

SLG

OPS

Rollins

3887

274

330

437

767

Victorino

1117

289

346

404

751

Again, using OPS they are about as good as any of the right-handed hitters on the list above. Coste’s .756 OPS is better than Victorino’s .751, but Victorino gets on base more.

If you add Victorino’s plate appearances versus lefties and his plate appearances versus righties they don’t add up to his total plate appearances. That’s cause he has 66 career plate appearances versus righties as a right-handed batter that are not included.

This says that Mark DeRosa has been traded to the Indians for minor league pitchers Jeff Stevens, Chris Archer and John Gaub. That doesn’t seem like a whole lot for DeRosa, so I don’t quite understand. I would have guessed that the Phillies would have been willing to give up more than that to land him.


2009 a second time

In mid-November I took a guess at who would be on the Phillies roster when the 2009 season started. A lot of things have happened since then, including:

  • Chase Utley had surgery on his right hip and will likely miss the start of the season. It’s unclear when he will be back at second base or who will be playing the position till he returns. We’re pretty sure it won’t be Nick Punto or Tad Iguchi. Probably won’t be Mark DeRosa, either.
  • Greg Golson, who had a slim chance to make the team to start the season, was traded for right-handed outfielder John Mayberry, who has a slimmer chance to make the team to start the season.
  • The Phillies signed veteran right-handed reliever Mike Koplove.
  • Jason Jaramillo was traded for right-handed catcher Ronny Paulino
  • Raul Ibanez was signed to a three-year contract and will presumably see the bulk of the time in left field.
  • Right-handed pitcher Robert Mosebach was acquired in the Rule 5 draft.
  • The Phils signed right-handed pitcher Chan Ho Park to a one-year contract.
  • They also signed Jamie Moyer to a two-year contract.

I think there are nine hitters you have to assume are on the team at this point.


Player

Position
1
Ryan Howard

1B
2
2B
3
Jimmy Rollins

SS
4
Pedro Feliz

3B
5
Shane Victorino

OF
6
Jayson Werth

OF
7
Raul Ibanez

OF
8
OF
9
Carlos Ruiz
C
10 C
11
Eric Bruntlett

UT
12
Greg Dobbs

3B/OF
13
UT
14

Utley is obviously on the team as well, but will probably start the season on the DL. That leaves four spots for position players, assuming the Phils carry 13 hitters and 12 pitchers to start the year.

First spot is second catcher along with Ruiz. I think Paulino is a far better bet to take that spot than Coste. It now seems clear the Marson will start the year in the minors.

The Phillies definitely need to give one of the other three spots to an outfielder, almost surely Geoff Jenkins or Matt Stairs, to fill out an outfield that will feature Victorino in center, Werth in right and Ibanez in left. I still don’t believe the Phillies can carry all three of Jenkins, Stairs and Dobbs — that seems especially true now that the left-handed bat of Ibanez looks like it will be a fixture in the lineup till we’ve been saying “Yeah he can hit but he really needs to go to the AL where he can DH” about him for about a year and a half. I still guess the fourth outfielder spot goes to Jenkins.

That leaves two — the 2B spot that is open with Utley on the DL and another spot on the bench. At least one of those spaces needs to go to a right-handed hitter, and the options in the organization right now are not exciting. I would have to guess that Coste, Mike Cevernak and Mayberry would be the lead candidates. Matt Stairs is not right-handed, but you’d have to think he’d get some consideration anyway given the possibilities. I think Coste would get the spot if it came down to those four — more likely, though, it seems that the Phillies will add a veteran right-handed bat before the season starts.

And then there’s the Utley second base spot. Jason Donald, Brad Harman, veteran not on the team or letting Bruntlett handle the job while Utley was out look like the four main candidates there. Harman hit 210/280/366 at Double-A last year, so I don’t think he’s going to be an attractive option. Donald comes off a monster year in the minors and the AFL, but I would guess the Phils let him play in the minors again in 2009. I don’t think Bruntlett can hit right-handed pitching well enough to play regularly at second base, but I think the big question for the Phillies will be how much time Utley is going to miss. If the Phillies believe Utley is going to miss a small number of games, Bruntlett would almost surely get the call. Ideally for the Phils the right-handed hitter they bring in to fill the bench slot above could play second. Without much information about how long Utley is going to be out, I’ll still go with yet another right-handed veteran in this slot to fill out the hitting roster. It would mean the Phils would be in a bind when Utley returned — Utley plus two right-handed veteran bats gives them 14 hitters, which they probably won’t carry. You can see why DeRosa was so attractive to the Phillies as he fills the need for the big right-handed bat and the guy who can play second base. There aren’t a lot of guys like that out there.

Ten of the Phillies pitching spots are likely to be filled by these guys:


Player

Position
1
Cole Hamels (left)

SP
2
Brett Myers (right)

SP
3
Joe Blanton (right)

SP
4
Jamie Moyer (left)

SP
5
SP
6
Ryan Madson (right)
 RP
7
JC Romero (left)

RP
8
Clay Condrey (right)

RP
9
Scott Eyre (left)

RP
10
Chad Durbin (right)

RP
11  
RP
12
Brad Lidge (right)

CLOSER

Assuming the Phils carry 12 pitchers, that leaves two.

With the signing of Moyer yesterday, the Phillies have one spot left in the rotation. Chan Ho Park’s early quotes seem to suggest he’ll be in the mix to win the job. He would presumably be competing with a group that included JA Happ and Kyle Kendrick as the front-runners for fifth starter. I don’t think Carlos Carrasco or Adam Eaton are realistic candidates. Kendrick and Happ may have to outpitch Park in spring training to win the job as fifth starter, but that might not be that hard for them to do. I’m still guessing Kendrick, but I think it’s very close between those three for the fifth starter job.

Park’s likely on the team whether he’s in the rotation or not — I think it’s just a question of whether he’s a starter or the veteran righty in the bullpen. The last bullpen spot needs to go to a righty. I think it will be Park, but if it’s not it may be Koplove battling all the right-handed relievers in the world that currently aren’t on the Phillies to make the team.

Hitters (13): Howard, Rollins, Feliz, Ibanez, Victorino, Werth, Ruiz, Bruntlett, Dobbs, Paulino, Jenkins and two right-handed hitters currently not with the team.

Pitchers (12): Hamels, Myers, Blanton, Moyer, Kendrick, Madson, Romero, Condrey, Eyre, Durbin, Park, Lidge.

This suggests Utley could be ready for opening day.

The Phillies signed Jamie Moyer to a two-year deal worth $13 million. Chan Ho Park was also signed to a one-year deal. Glad to see Moyer back — I think the Phillies won that one as I was expecting Moyer to get more than $13 million. But . . . this says that Moyer will make $20 million over the two years if he throws at least 190 innings and makes 31 starts in each season. Moyer has thrown at least 190 innings and made at least 31 starts in each of the last eight seasons.

The Phillies needed a right-handed pitcher and they got one, but I think Chan Ho Park’s numbers in a Phillie uniform might be ugly in 2009.

I am tracking my guess as to who will be part of the 2009 Phillies here.


And you can have his on-base percentage when you pry it from his cold, barely functioning and kinda crunchy hands

Chase Utley has led all of baseball in getting hit by pitches in each of the last two seasons. By a lot. All of the Minnesota Twins, for example, combined to be hit 36 times in 2008, which is nine more than the 27 times Utley was hit. He was hit 12 more times than any other player in the National League. In 2007 he also led both leagues, hit 25 times.

All that isn’t good for a lot of reasons. It is good for your on-base percentage, though. Here’s what Utley’s actual numbers for 2008, what they would have been if the 27 plate appearances in which he was hit by a pitch never happened and what they would have been if in the 27 plate appearances in which he was hit he wasn’t hit but instead continued to have offensive results at the same rate that he had for the rest of the season:

  PA AB H 2B 3B HR BB HBP AVG OBP SLG
Actual 707 607 177 41 4 33 64 27 .292 .380 .535
HBP never happened 680 607 177 41 4 33 64 0 .292 .355 .535
Other result instead of HBP 707 631 184 43 4 34 67 0 .292 .355 .535

All those HBP were good for 25 points of on-base percentage. They were in 2007, too:

  PA AB H 2B 3B HR BB HBP AVG OBP SLG
Actual 613 530 176 48 5 22 50 25 .332 .410 .566
HBP never happened 588 530 176 48 5 22 50 0 .332 .385 .566
Other result instead of HBP 613 553 183 50 5 23 52 0 .332 .385 .566

I’m pretty sure you don’t want Utley getting hit by pitches at the rate he is, even for 25 points of on-base percentage. The other thing that surprising is the .355 on-base percentage for 2008 in the plate appearances where he was not hit by a pitch. Ryan Howard, for example, had a .336 on-base percentage in 2008 in his plate appearances where he was not hit by a pitch — the difference between their actual on-base percentages, .385 to .339, was much larger.

Utley has been hit by a pitch at a higher rate than notable hit-by-pitchee Craig Biggio (who is second on the career leaders in hit by pitch) over his career:

Player Career PA Career HBP % of PA
HBP
Utley 3,126 83 2.66
Craig Biggio 12,504 285 2.28

The most alarming part of the problem for Utley, which I’ll discuss more in another post, is that the rate at which he has been hit by pitches has risen dramatically over the past two seasons.

Phillies fans will get a chance to pose with the World Series trophy this weekend.

Kevin Towers says we should know if there’s a Peavy deal today. This suggests that Scott Hairston may be a player targeted by the Phillies.

The Phillies extended Charlie Manuel’s contract through 2011. That’s good news for Phillies fans cause I don’t think there’s anyone who could have gotten more out of the recent Phillies teams than Manuel did.

This says the Phillies are close to signing Chan Ho Park.

The Phillies traded Jason Jaramillo for 27-year-old right-handed hitting catcher Ronny Paulino. Paulino has a 278/331/382 line in 1,021 career at-bats, all of which came with the Pirates. He’s a good bet to take Chris Coste’s roster spot. He pounds lefties, 355/417/498 against them for his career. In 2008 he hit just 212/277/305 in 118 at-bats for the Pirates. He was sent down to the minors in early June and hit 302/365/525 in 139 at-bats in the Gulf Coast League and International League combined, missing about a month and a half with an injury to his right ankle. He was back with the Pirates in September. After the season he went to the Dominican Winter League and hit very well, 310/468/707 with six home runs in 58 at-bats. Some have questioned his work ethic or suggested that Paulino’s attitude and level of effort contributed to his demotion to the minors in ’08.

The Phillies seem to have very few problems with getting an effort out of their players. I’d be surprised if Paulino’s effort proves to be an issue. Nifty deal for the Phils. Not much to complain about in the Amaro era yet. We’ll keep looking, though, so check back often.


  • Calender

    August 2014
    M T W T F S S
    « Apr    
     123
    45678910
    11121314151617
    18192021222324
    25262728293031
  • Online Marketing
    Add blog to our blog directory.



    Web Directory

    Blogging Fusion Blog Directory

  • Copyright © 1996-2010 Philliesflow.com. All rights reserved.
    iDream theme by Templates Next | Powered by WordPress