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The Phils got pounded by the Cubs last night, losing 6-1 in a game that was most remarkable for the circumstances surrounding the departure of Roy Halladay. Halladay left in the fifth inning looking very hot and not at all well. Word is that Halladay expects to make his next start.

The bullpen also scuffled in the game. Coming off of a series in which the relievers combined to allow nine runs in 9 1/3 innings, Carpenter and Herndon combined to surrender three runs in four innings in relief of Halladay. Going back to June 23 (when the pen allowed eight runs in six innings to the Cardinals), the bullpen has thrown to a 6.46 ERA and a 1.54 ratio over the last 20 games for the Phillies. In four of those 20 games the pen has allowed at least four runs in a game and in two others they allowed three. In the 75 games before the June 23 game, the bullpen threw to a 2.80 ERA and a 1.29 ratio.

The Phillies are 59-36 on the year after losing to the Chicago Cubs 6-1 last night. They are in first place in the NL East, 2 1/2 games ahead of the Braves. Atlanta is 44-24 since the end of April while the Phils have gone 41-28.

Halladay got the start for the Phillies and went four innings, allowing three runs on seven hits and a walk. One of the hits went for extra-bases, a solo home run. He struck out one.

He got the first two batters to start the bottom of the first before Aramis Ramirez hit the first pitch he saw out to left center, putting the Cubs on top 1-0. Carlos Pena followed that with a single to center, but Halladay got Marlon Bryd to fly to center to end the inning.

He got three ground balls as he set Chicago down in order in the second.

The pitcher Rodrigo Lopez led off the third with a single to right and Kosuke Fukudome walked behind him. Starlin Castro followed that with a single to left, which loaded the bases for Ramirez. Ramirez flew to right for the first out, deep enough for Lopez to tag and score and Fukudome to take third. 2-0 with men on first and third. Pena singled to right and Fukudome scored. 3-0 with men on first and second. Halladay got Byrd and Alfonso Soriano on a pair of fly balls to prevent further damage.

It was 3-1 when Halladay started the fourth. Darwin Barney singled with one out and Lopez bunted him to second, but Halladay got Fukudome to fly to Brown in right to leave Barney stranded.

Castro started the fifth with a single to center and Halladay didn’t look real good after the at-bat, bent over with his hands on his knees. He left the game and Carpenter took over to pitch to Ramirez. Ramirez flew to center for the first out before Castro stole second. Carpenter walked Pena, putting men on first and second. Castro tried to steal third and thrown out for the second out. Byrd followed that with a ball off the glove of Martinez and into left for a single that moved Castro up to second. Soriano grounded to second to end the inning.

The caught stealing by Castro costs the Cubs a run. Close play at third, but I think he was out. Nice throw by Ruiz.

Carpenter walked Koyie Hill to start the sixth and Hill stole second before Barney doubled off the wall in left. Hill scored and Chicago led 4-1. Lopez bunted Barney to third before Fukudome doubled down the right field line, scoring Barney to make it 5-1. Carpenter got Castro on a line drive to Rollins for the second out and struck out Ramirez to end the inning with Fukudome stranded.

Carpenter goes two innings, allowing two runs on three hits and two walks to raise his ERA on the year to 7.11. He has been charged with at least one run in three of his four appearances on the year.

Herndon started the seventh and Pena homered on a 3-1 pitch to put Chicago up 6-1. Byrd followed that with a double on a ball that was deflected by Brown in right, but Herndon struck out Soriano and Hill and got Barney on a fly ball to center to leave Byrd stranded.

Herndon set the Cubs down in order in the eighth.

Two innings for Herndon, allowing a run on two hits and no walks. He’s had four bad outings in a row going back to June 30. Over those four appearances, he’s gone 6 1/3 innings and been charged with six runs on 13 hits. True to form he hasn’t walked anyone. In three of the four outings he’s allowed a home run and opponents are slugging .781 against him.

Carpenter and Herndon both threw 31 pitches.

The Phillies lineup against righty Rodrigo Lopez went (1) Rollins (2) Martinez (3) Utley (4) Howard (5) Ibanez (6) Ruiz (7) Brown (8) Mayberry. Martinez plays third with Polanco on the DL and Mayberry continues to handle center for Victorino.

The Phils went in order in the top of the first.

Down 1-0, the Phils went in order in the second. And again in the third.

It was 3-0 when Rollins led off the fourth and hit a 1-0 pitch from Lopez out to right for his ninth home run of the year, cutting the lead to 3-1. Martinez and Utley went down behind him before Howard hit a ball that Barney didn’t handle for an error. Ibanez went down on a popup that Barney handled in foul territory to leave Howard at first.

Mayberry doubled to center with two outs in the fifth, but Halladay struck out behind him.

Martinez singled with one out in the sixth and moved to second when Utley was hit by a pitch. Howard got an extra chance when Soriano dropped a foul ball in left for an error, but flew to Byrd for the second out. Ibanez struck out to leave both runners stranded.

Ruiz singled to start the seventh with the Phils down 5-1, but Brown grounded into a double-play behind him. Mayberry followed that with a single into center, putting a man on first for Carpenter with two outs. With the righty Lopez still pitching for the Cubs, Orr hit for Carpenter and Chicago brought lefty James Russell in to pitch to him. Francisco hit for Orr and grounded to second to set the Phils down.

Francisco is 4-for-his-last-14 with three doubles. He’s still doing nothing against lefties for the season, having hit 198/301/309 against them so far. His numbers against right-handed pitching aren’t so far off his career levels — he’s hitting 242/351/395 against righties compare to a career mark of 259/327/434.

Down 6-1, the Phils went in order in the eighth.

Ruiz and Brown walked back-to-back with two outs in the ninth, but Mayberry struck out swinging 3-2 to end the game.

Rollins was 1-for-4 with a home run. He’s hitting 362/413/500 in 63 plate appearances in July so far. It wasn’t a factor last night, but he’s been miserable against left-handed pitching this year, hitting 232/267/295.

Martinez was 1-for-4 with a strikeout. He’s 2-for-his-last-14.

Utley 0-for-3 and was hit by a pitch. He’s 1-for-his-last-14 and 4-for-his-last-28. 250/337/341 over his last 102 plate appearances.

Howard 0-for-4 to drop his average to .249. 1-for-his-last-15. 5-for-his-last-33 with five singles. 203/306/297 over his last 85 plate appearances.

Ibanez 0-for-4 and left three men on base. 357/372/667 in 43 plate appearances over his last nine games, raising his line on the year from 231/279/386 to 246/290/421.

Ruiz 1-for-3 with a walk. He’s 8-for-his-last-19 with a double, a home run and four walks.

Brown 0-for-3 with a walk. He’s 0-for-his-last-10.

Mayberry 2-for-4 with a double. He’s played eight full games since July 6, hitting 286/306/629 (10-for-35 with six doubles, two home runs, a walk and 12 RBI).

Cliff Lee (9-6, 2.82) faces righty Matt Garza (4-7, 3.97) tonight. Two of Garza’s last three starts have been very good. On July 2 he threw a complete game against the White Sox, allowing a run on four hits and two walks. In his most recent start he threw seven shutout innings against the Marlins. In between he was hammered by the Nats, charged with seven runs in two innings. In nine starts at home this year he’s 3-3 with a 2.88 ERA. Lee has had one bad start since the beginning of June, which came on July 3 when he allowed seven runs to the Blue Jays in 7 1/3 innings. In his other six starts since the end of May, Lee has gone 5-0 and allowed two earned runs in 50 innings (0.36 ERA with an 0.68 ratio).

The Phils are expected to activate Victorino for tonight’s game. Orr was sent to Triple-A.

After looking at how the runs allowed per plate appearance changed by catcher for 2009, I thought it might be interesting to look at how they changed depending on who was pitching.

The table below shows, for each player who pitched for the Phillies in 2009, the rate at which the pitcher allowed runs per batter faced and the rate at which all Phillies pitchers other than that pitchers allowed runs per batter faced. The rightmost column shows the second column over the third.

For example, Scott Eyre faced 128 batters in 2009 and was charged with six runs, or .047 runs per batter. The entire Phillies team faced 6,261 batters and allowed 709 runs. If you subtract Eyre’s work from that, all Phillies pitchers besides Eyre faced 6,133 batters and allowed 703 runs. That’s about .115 runs per batter faced. If you put .047 (Eyre’s runs allowed per batter) over .115 (the rest of the team’s runs allowed per batter) you get .409, which also means that Eyre allowed about 40.9% of the runs per plate appearance that the rest of the pitchers on the team allowed.

One thing that was surprising to me about the list was how close to the middle Cliff Lee wound up. One thing to remember is that, given how much he pitched, Lee allowed a bunch of unearned runs. Five of the 35 runs he allowed were unearned, which is 14.3%. Overall for the team, 5.1% of the runs allowed by Phillies pitching was unearned. Condrey, Eyre, Lopez and Romero also all had more than 10% of the runs they allowed in ’09 go as unearned.

Curious also to me is that Blanton’s runs allowed per batter was a tiny bit better than Lee’s. Forgetting ERA, Lee still had a better runs allowed per nine innings than Blanton did — 3.95 for Lee and 4.10 for Blanton. That means Blanton must have faced more batters per inning. And he did. Blanton faced about 4.28 batters per inning in ’09 while Lee faced about 4.10 batters per inning while with the Phils.

Finally, I’ve said this before but I am worried about the Phillies bullpen. They didn’t come in especially important situations, but the Phils got good relief work from Eyre, Condrey, Walker, Park and Moyer last year. It’s not clear to me how they plan to make up for those guys with the players that currently seem to be set up to pitch out of the bullpen. A better year from Lidge should help, but I think they’re going to need more than that.

This article looks at the players the Phillies will have at spring training.

It seems to me there’s little to find out about the offense in spring training. It looks pretty set with 13 hitters: Ruiz, Howard, Utley, Rollins, Polanco, Ibanez, Victorino, Werth, Schneider, Castro, Gload, Dobbs and Francisco.

The pitching seems like a whole different story. It looks like Moyer is the fifth starter if he’s healthy and I’d guess it’s Kendrick if he’s not, but the bullpen is a mess. Madson, Durbin, Baez and Contreras are the only guys I think we should be counting to be on the team on opening day. Lidge and Romero are in if they’re healthy, but I’m guessing we go 0-for-2 on that front. Bastardo and Escalona look like they will battle for a job as a lefty out of the pen, but it seems like two slots to start the year are pretty wide open when things get going (assuming Lidge and Romero start the year on the DL). I keep waiting for the Phillies to sign a reliever and it keeps not happening. Assuming Romero isn’t able to start the year it seems like Escalona and Bastardo could both be pitching out of the pen to start the year. My guess at this point is that the 12 pitchers on the opening day roster for the Phils are: Halladay, Hamels, Blanton, Happ, Moyer, Madson, Durbin, Baez, Contreras, Escalona, Bastardo and Kendrick.

Trying to guess who the Phillies might have playing third base next year is kinda fun, but what kind of year the Phils have in 2010 is going to have a lot more to do with what they can do to improve their pitching this off-season.

In 2009 the Phillies used 22 pitchers. They combined to throw 1,455 2/3 innings and allow 709 runs.

Ten of the 22 pitchers that the Phillies used had a percentage of the team’s 1,455 2/3 innings that they threw that was higher than their percentage of the team’s 709 runs that they allowed.

They are in the chart below. For each of the ten there are columns for the percentage of the team’s innings that they pitched, the percentage of the team’s runs that they allowed, the percentage of the runs allowed over the percentage of the innings pitched and the rank of that column compared to the other players in this group. The list is ordered by the number of innings that the player threw for the Phils in 2009.

So, for example, Joe Blanton threw about 13.4% of the Phillies innings this season and allowed about 12.6% of the runs. 12.6 over 13.4 is 0.94, which is tenth best among the ten players who allowed a percentage of runs that was lower than the percentage of innings they pitched.

Please note that the rounding of the two percentage columns makes the math look wrong. For example, Eyre’s row shows 2.1 and 0.8, but .8 over 2.1 equals about 0.38 and not 0.41 — that’s cause the numbers are really 2.061 and 0.846 and not 2.1 and .8.

When you look at the difference between the percentage of the runs allowed and percentage of innings pitched it’s important to take into account the number of innings pitched. Eyre had the most dramatic difference between the two numbers, but Blanton was a lot more important to the team despite the worse difference since he threw more than six times as many innings as Eyre.

There were 12 pitchers for the Phils this year who allowed a percentage of the team’s runs that was higher than the percentage of the teams’ innings that pitcher threw. Here are the 12, using the same categories as above (the ranking continues from where the top list left off):

Again, the number of innings that the pitcher threw is critical. Andrew Carpenter was miserable compared to the rest of the group, but he only threw 5 2/3 innings. Guys who threw more innings, like Lidge and Moyer especially, obviously hurt the Phils more.

Article here about what some Phillies prospects have been doing in the AFL and winter leagues. If you don’t know who Sebastian Valle is it might be time to find out.

It sure seems like there’s a big opportunity for Mayberry these days. He’s hitting 314/390/521 in Mexico with seven home runs in 121 at-bats. It wasn’t a great year from him at Triple-A, but it’s nice to see him taking more walks in 2009 than he did in ’08 or ’07 — take a look at his minor league numbers.

Question of the day is why doesn’t Tyler Walker pitch to more batters when the game is close. Answer of the day is “I don’t know” — given that’s the answer at least I can demonstrate that he doesn’t pitch to a lot of batters when the game is close.

First things first: Walker has been fantastic for the Phillies this season. He came into yesterday’s games with a 2.35 ERA for the year and a 0.98 ratio. Opponents were hitting .204 against him for the season and on-basing .258.

Still, as the back of the bullpen implodes Walker virtually never is pitching in situations when the game is close. The chart below lists all of the Phillies pitchers who have faced at least one batter this year, how many total batters they have faced, how many batters they have faced when the score was tied or one of the teams was winning by one run and the percent of batters faced when the score was tied or with the Phils up or down one. It is divided into three sections — pitchers who have worked only as starters are at the top, pitchers who have worked only as relievers are at the bottom and pitchers who have pitched both as starters and as relievers are in a group in the middle (the chart does not include yesterday’s games).

So the only player who has pitched for the Phillies this season and thrown to a lower percentage of the batters he’s faced with the score tied or the Phils up or down one run is Steven Register, who appeared in one game and faced 11 hitters.

As I mentioned above, if you’re looking for the answer to why questions you’ve come to the wrong place. I don’t know. If I had to guess my guess would be that Manuel is terrified of the prospect of Walker facing a left-handed hitter with the game close. Walker has been great against lefties in 2009 — they’ve hit 209/271/302 against him, which is actually better than the 200/250/343 that righties have hit against Walker. In 2008, however, lefties smoked Walker to the tune of 319/372/597. Over his career lefties have hit an ugly 281/352/459 against Walker.

Aside from Walker, I think that the chart shows some other interesting things. First and most obvious is that starting pitchers generally face more batters with the game close and a higher percentage of their batters than relief pitchers do.

I think the difference in the percentage of the hitters that Romero and Eyre faced in tight games is telling. Both would like be used primarily as situational lefties in the post-season if available, but Manuel has given Romero a lot more of his chances in tight games. Eyre has been better.

Condrey has faced a higher percentage of hitters in one run or closer games than Lidge. His percentage is also higher than Durbin. Durbin has a low percentage of hitters faced in tight games compared to other regulars in the group. It’s also down from last year. In 2008, Durbin faced 364 batters and faced 174 of them (47.8%) with the score tied or the Phils up or down a run. I don’t think any of that bodes well for Durbin.

Myers has a strained back. The Phillies hope he will return before the end of the regular season.

The article linked above says that Happ will start on Thursday, Lee on Friday and (hopefully) Pedro on Saturday.

It also says that Dobbs was not ready to play third yesterday with his calf. I still find starting Cairo to be very odd. Even if Dobbs does not go I don’t understand why it would be Cairo and not Bruntlett. I’ve been saying for a while that I think Bruntlett is on the post-season roster because he’s the only choice to back up the middle infield. That’s not literally true, of course. It’s also notable that Bruntlett does not have an at-bat this month. We’ll see.

The same article says that Eyre needs surgery but is cleared to pitch, pitched yesterday and felt good. It also says that Romero threw 50 pitches yesterday and will throw again tomorrow and that Park could pitch next week.

The Phillies tried Ryan Madson as a starter in 2006 and things didn’t go very well. Madson made 17 starts in which he threw to a 6.28 ERA and wound up doing most of his work for the year pitching in relief. He finished the season with a 5.69 ERA.

Since then he’s had three years as a full-time reliever and in each of the three seasons he’s pitched to an ERA in the 3.05 to 3.10 range with a ratio in the 1.22 to 1.27 range. Here’s a look at how his numbers for this year for striking batters out and allowing runs, hits, walks, doubles and triples and home runs per 100 plate appearances compare to his numbers for the last two seasons:

Despite the very similar ERAs for the three year, Madson has his walk rate down significantly in the past two seasons compared to 2007. He is striking out a lot more hitters this year, but allowing home runs at his highest rate for the three seasons. While his home run rate is up, his rate for allowing extra-base hits that aren’t home runs is down a lot. In 2008 he was allowing about 1.54 times the doubles and triples per 100 plate appearances that he has in 2009.

The thing that’s a little worrisome about Madson’s year in 2009 is that if you divide what he’s done this season nearly in half, the first half was a lot better than the second. Madson didn’t allow a home run in his first 34 appearances on the year before June 18. On that day the Phils and Jays went into the top of the ninth tied at 7-7 and Rod Barajas hit a solo homer off of Madson. The Phils lost 8-7. Those first 34 appearances are just about half of his work for the year — he’s faced 138 batters before June 18 and 139 on June 18 or after. The numbers before that date are a whole lot better:

With the exception of walks, pretty much everything has been going in the wrong direction for Madson since the day he allowed his first home run of the season. His rates for allowing hits and doubles and triples are way up, and his strikeouts down, but by far the biggest factor for him is that after not allowing a home run in his first 33 1/3 innings of the season he has allowed six in his last 33 1/3.

Not to be forgotten in all of this is that Madson was outstanding in the post-season last season, throwing to a 2.13 ERA and an 0.87 ratio in 11 appearances. He’s also on pace to throw a few less innings this season, about 79 after throwing 82 2/3 in ’08. The thing about ’08, though, was that Madson was fantastic at the end of the regular season as well as in the post-season. In his last 14 appearances in the regular season in ’08 he was charged with one earned run, throwing to an 0.64 ERA with an 0.93 ratio and striking out 17 in 14 innings.

Andy Tracy and Sergio Escalona are up. Rodrigo Lopez has been released.

The article linked above says that Moyer will take Happ’s start on Saturday. It also says that Kendrick will likely start one of the double-header games on Sunday, which would go a long way towards removing #DIV/0! from the Start Log.

The Phillies have lost eight of their last eleven games. Who’s to blame? If you’ve been watching it’s not hard to guess it’s the offense:

If the Phillies scored 2.91 runs per game over 162 games they would score about 471 in a season. The Padres have the worst offense in the NL this season. They are on pace to scored about 605 runs.

A starting pitcher has to pitch pretty well for your team to win when you hit like that. In the three games in the slump the Phils have won they got two complete games (one from Happ and one from Lee). Lee allowed a run over seven innings in the other game they won.

The rate at which the Phillies have allowed runs overall in the streak is almost identical to their rate of allowing runs for the year. That’s a little curious given that the starters have pitched deeper into games with a better ERA, a better ratio and the relievers are allowing significantly fewer runs per game:

That chart shows that the ERA for the starting pitchers is better in the 11 games than it was in the first 98, but the starting pitchers have allowed more runs per game. That’s because the defense has been atrocious in the slump. In the last 11 games the starting pitchers have been charged with six unearned runs. In the first 98 games of the year they were charged with four.

The relief pitching has actually been pretty good in the slump. The bullpen has allowed 15 runs in the 11 games, but nine of the runs were allowed by Lopez and Lidge in Sunday’s game. The relief pitchers have allowed fewer runs per game during the streak than in the first 98 games — they are also pitching fewer innings, though, since the starters are pitching more. The improvement in the runs per game allowed by the relievers is a little more dramatic than the difference in the number of innings pitched by the starters. The starters have thrown about 107% more innings per game, but the relievers are allowing about 87% of the runs per game they allowed in the first 98 games of the year.

The Phillies activated Chad Durbin and sent Rodrigo Lopez down.