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Aaron Hicks homered off of three different Phillie pitchers yesterday as the Twins topped the Phils 10-6. The Phils led 6-1 after three innings but couldn’t hold on. Valdes and Minor were charged with seven runs between them in the seventh and eighth innings combined.

Ruf hit a two-run double for the Phillies in the bottom of the second. A much needed 2-for-4 on the day with three RBI ups his line to 185/313/259 with just two walks and two extra-base hits, both doubles, in 32 plate appearances.

Galvis started at short and had the only other extra-base hit for the Phils, a triple. He was 1-for-5 in the game. Slugging .519 this spring.

Young and Mayberry both 2-for-3. Mayberry also drew a walk to raise his line to 281/343/438 after a slow start. Young’s continued hot hitting has his average up to .310.

Brown and Kratz 2-for-4. Kratz is hitting .200 without a walk in 15 at-bats. Brown is at 400/514/767. Leads the team in walks and runs scored and is tied for Howard with the home run lead at three. Brown has scored 13 runs this spring while no other Phillie has scored more than seven.

This article talks about nice defensive plays made by Young, Brown and Utley in the game.

Lee started the game for the Phillies. He gave up a leadoff homer to the first batter he faced before retiring the next three to end the first. He allowed two hits and a walk in a scoreless second and threw a 1-2-3 third. He started the fourth, allowing another solo home run, this time with one out. He got the second out and was replaced by Horst.

Overall, Lee went 3 2/3 innings in the game, allowing two runs on four hits and a walk while striking out five. Both of the runs scored on solo homers. 5.19 ERA with a 1.27 ratio over three starts. Ten strikeouts in 8 2/3 innings.

Horst allowed a walk before getting the final out of the fourth. He came back to pitch the fifth and allowed a run on a solo homer.

Again Horst doesn’t pitch well. The spring started out well for him and has fallen apart a little over his last couple outings. His numbers at this point are ugly — 14.40 ERA with a 2.60 ratio. In five innings he’s allowed four home runs.

Valdes allowed a single single before striking out the side in the sixth. He returned for the seventh and gave up a leadoff walk, which was followed by yet another homer by Aaron Hicks (his third of the day — Lee, Horst and Valdes). Valdes struck the next hitter out for the first out of the frame and was replaced by Kyle Simon.

Valdes’s numbers are better than Horst, but they’re still really bad. 7.36 ERA with a 1.23 ratio. Like Horst, he’s allowed four home runs. He’s struck out a team-high 11 in 7 1/3 innings.

Simon got the last two outs in the seventh. He has now allowed a run in 2 1/3 innings over four appearances.

Miner started the eighth and faced six batters, getting one out, walking two and allowing four singles before getting pulled. He wound up charged with five runs on three hits and two walks over a third of an inning. Fields made an error at first after Miner left that meant that one of his five runs was unearned.

Miner has a 12.71 ERA for the spring and opponents have hit .370 against him.

Savery got the last two outs in the eighth, allowing one runner to reach on Fields’s error. He came back and allowed two singles in a scoreless ninth.

Savery hasn’t been charged with a run in his three appearances, allowing four hits and a walk over 4 1/3 innings while striking out four (0.00 ERA and a 1.15 ratio).

Kendrick is expected to start against the Rays this afternoon. Papelbon will not pitch as scheduled and may pitch Saturday.

USA plays Mexico today in the World Baseball Classic.

The Phillies won again this afternoon, scoring ten runs to beat the Yankees 10-5.

The Phils have won three of their last four and scored 20 runs in the last two games, winning 10-5 on back-to-back days. They got a bunch of help from the Yankees in today’s game as New York made four errors that led to six unearned runs.

Ten hits in the game for the Phillies. Nine singles and a double by Rollins. Rollins was 1-for-2 with two walks, a double and a pair of RBI. Galvis also saw some time at short, going 1-for-2 with an RBI and raising his spring average to .357.

Galvis is also the unlikely team leader in strikeouts with five.

Cody Asche was the only Phil with more than one hit, going 2-for-2 with a pair of singles to up his spring average to .333 (3-for-9 with a double and a walk).

Mayberry was 1-for-3 with a walk and drove in three runs, which ties him with Howard for the team lead in RBI at five. Howard 0-for-3. Brown 0-for-1 and walked three times, which raises his on-base percentage to .600 after 20 plate appearances.

Ruf was the DH and went 1-for-4 with two strikeouts and a walk, upping his average to .188.

Halladay started the game and went 2 1/3 innings, allowing a run on three hits and a walk. He kept the Yankees off the board in the first two innings. In the bottom of the first, New York loaded the bases on two singles and a walk, but Halladay struck out Melky Mesa to leave them loaded. Halladay threw a 1-2-3 second and faced two men in the third, allowing a one-out double to Francisco Cervelli. Cesar Jimenez took over for Halladay and struck two guys out, but also allowed a pair of hits, including a single that scored Cervelli with the run charged to Halladay.

4.15 ERA and a 1.15 ratio for Halladay after two starts and 4 1/3 innings. He’s struck out five.

Jimenez has allowed three hits over 1 2/3 innings, but hasn’t yet been charged with a run.

Aumont pitched the fourth, allowing a two-out single, but keeping the Yankees off the board. Aumont has now allowed one hit in two scoreless innings while striking out two over two appearances.

Then came Papelbon and Valdes. Neither of them pitched well and each of them were coming off a rough outing to start the spring.

Papelbon allowed a walk and a single to the first two hitters he faced before yielding a two-run double off the top of the wall in left. He allowed two runs on two hits and a walk in the frame, which dropped his ERA to 43.20. His ratio is 6.00 — seven hits, including two home runs, and three walks over 1 2/3 innings.

Valdes allowed a run on a solo homer to start the sixth before striking out the next three hitters to end the frame. He was back for the seventh and gave up another solo shot, this one coming with two outs. He’s now allowed three solo home runs in four innings over two appearances.

Rodrigo Lopez pitched the final two innings and was good again, allowing two singles and a walk while keeping New York off the board. That’s five scoreless innings for Lopez now with a 0.00 ERA, an 0.80 ratio and four strikeouts.

Cliff Lee is expected to pitch tomorrow when the Phils face the Blue Jays. Lee was very good in his first start, allowing a walk in two scoreless innings.

Here was the most recent guess about the pitchers who start the year with the team, which came in this post at the end of January:

There have been some developments since then. The biggest is that Chad Durbin was signed and appears to be a lock to be a righty out of the pen. Juan Cruz and the Phillies have parted ways, presumably because Durbin appears to be a lock to be a righty out of the pen. JC Ramirez was DFA’ed and then sent to Triple-A. And the Phillies signed two lefties who are unlikely to see time with the big league club soon, David Newmann and Corey Young.

So I add Durbin to the list and removed Cruz. Ramirez will still be in camp as an NRI, although he seems like a long shot to start the year with the team, he’s still in the right-hand column of other candidates.

So nine slots now filled. Five starters and four relievers. Of the relievers, they have a closer, a setup guy and one lefty.

Assuming 12 pitchers to start the year, they have three open spots.

Last time I guessed I had them with eight filled slots and gave the last four to Horst, Aumont, Valdes and De Fratus, which left the Phils with three lefties in the pen and no true long man.

One big question with the current staff is whether Chad Durbin can pitch more than one inning or if the Phillies will use him to do so. Durbin was very good in 2012, arguably the best he had been since ’08 with the Phils, but didn’t go more than an inning a whole lot of times. Durbin got more than three outs in three of his 76 appearances for Atlanta in ’12. He threw more than 25 pitches in a game in four of 76. In 2008, the Phillies had Durbin throw more than 25 pitches in 18 of 71 appearances. On May 18, 2008, Durbin threw 66 pitches in relief of Kendrick after Kendrick exited after just one inning.

But it’s not 2008 anymore. And I would guess we aren’t going to see Durbin go more than an inning very often. So I’d say they still don’t have a long guy out of the pen.

I really have trouble seeing the Phillies not carry Horst to start the year given his performance in 2012 (he threw to a 1.15 ERA with a 1.12 ratio and 40 strikeouts over 31 1/3 innings).

I think that gets them to ten and leaves them with two slots open. I see Aumont, De Fratus, Stutes and Valdes as the guys with the best chances to fill the remaining slots. Aumont seems to have the biggest upside of the group. De Fratus has been fantastic in the minors in recent years. Stutes will need to prove he’s healthy, but was a big contributor for the 2011 Phils. Valdes threw to a 2.90 ERA with an 0.74 ratio for the Phils in 2012.

Aumont’s upside potential makes me feel like there’s some separation between him and the rest of the candidates. So I’ll put him in the eleventh spot. I think the last spot is a total tossup. Valdes would give the Phillies three lefties, so I’ll go with De Fratus once again.

That gives us 12 pitchers: Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Lannan, Kendrick, Papelbon, Adams, Durbin, Bastardo, Horst, Aumont and De Fratus.

Ben Revere wants to get on base more.

This article talks about depth in the starting rotation beyond the top five starters. It’s not real good.

Former Phillie hitting coach Greg Gross comments on some past and current Phillie hitters in this article.

The most recent post suggested that there are two positions where the total number of walks the Phillies drew in 2012, when they were terrible at drawing walks overall, was better than it was in 2007, when the Phillies were very good at drawing walks. One was center field and the other was shortstop.

Shortstop for the Phils is all about Jimmy Rollins and has been for years. He got about 95% of the team’s plate appearances as a shortstop in 2012 and just over 99% in 2007. For years we had been pleading with Jimmy Rollins to improve his walk rate. Not sure everybody noticed, but he did.

Through the end of the 2009 season, J-Roll had one year in his career in which he walked in 8% or more of his plate appearances (9.3% in 2008). Over the last three years his lowest walk rate is 8.9%. Here are his career numbers through 2009 and for 2010-2012:

From 2003 to 2007, the Phillies were either first or second in the NL in walk rate in every season. Rollins was the everyday guy at shortstop, walking in the same 7.2% of his plate appearances as his career mark for walk rate going into 2010.

So even when the Phillies were an elite walking team, they didn’t draw a ton of walks at the position. They’re no longer an elite group of walkers, but they are getting more walks from short because Rollins has improved his rate.

Center field is the other position where the Phils drew more walks in 2012 than they did in 2007. Again, the issue there is that their walk rate in center was pretty low in 2007. Rowand was miserable at drawing walks in 2006, walking in just about 4.1% of his plate appearances in center. He got better in ’07, getting the vast majority of the PA at the position and walking in about 6.9% of his chances to help get the team’s rate up to 7.0%. Led by Victorino, the team has been in the 8% range over the past four years and were at 8.5% in 2012. Victorino walked in just 8.1% of his PA with the Phils in ’12, his worst mark since 2008, but the Phils got up to 8.5% at the position with some unexpected help from Mayberry. You probably don’t think of Mayberry as a walk machine, but he walked in about 9.7% of his 227 plate appearances as a center fielder in 2012.

Delmon Young is coming off of surgery on his right ankle. Amaro suggests that he might not be able to play in games competitively until the middle of March in this article. The same article suggests that Valdes and Stutes could both be near 100%.

Freeze frame, November, 2012. The Phillies shock the baseball world by naming you their new GM. Your job — add a starting center fielder, a starting third baseman, a starting corner outfielder, a top setup man and a fifth starter. Trade Vance Worley, Trevor May, Josh Lindblom and Lisalverto Bonilla if you want, but make sure you take on less than $20 million in 2013 payroll.

Good luck.

If that’s your charge and you come back with Ben Revere, Michael Young, Delmon Young, John Lannan and Mike Adams, you’ve done your job.

Obviously Amaro had more flexibility than that, especially around who he traded. Keeping Worley would have made adding a fifth starter unnecessary. And some of the positions he filled from outside of the organization could have been filled from within. If the Phillies fail to play Domonic Brown just about every day to start 2013, they’re making a mistake. But they haven’t done that yet and, no matter what they say in January, I don’t think they will. And I don’t think that the off-season has been a disaster for the Phillies.

If there’s a disaster here, and despite how ugly 2012 was, I don’t think this is a disaster yet, it didn’t start this off-season. It started a couple of years ago and moves slow.

Success or failure for the 2013 Phillies is going to have a whole lot more to do with what Ryan Howard, Jonathan Papelbon, Chase Utley, Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee combine to produce for the $137ish million the Phils have committed to pay them than it will with what Delmon Young produces for the $750,000 they’ve committed to pay him. And a lot of what we saw in 2012 should make you worry about that group’s ability to produce $137 million worth of value in 2013.

You can pay all five of the new guys mentioned above this season with the $20 million the Phils have committed to Howard. With a couple of million left over. You can get most of the way there with the $13 million they’re going to pay Papelbon.

It’s a lotta eggs in a small number of baskets. There is no solution if those eggs can’t play anymore or simply have bad contracts — but it’s not Delmon Young’s fault, either. The choices are declare it’s over and rebuild or declare it’s not and do what you can with the limited flexibility that you have left. I’m glad they chose the later. This is what do what you can with the limited flexibility you have looks like.

Bottom line for me is that the Phillies may have made mistakes. Some of them are big mistakes. Maybe too big for the team to overcome in next few seasons. I’m a lot less sure they came this off-season, though.

Yesterday I updated my guess on who the hitters on the team are at this point. Earlier this month I made a guess on the pitching side. Here’s what I came up with then:

Assuming 12 pitching spots to start the season, I gave the four open slots to Horst, Aumont, Valdes and De Fratus.

Not a whole lot has changed since January 9. The Phillies signed free agent righties Rodrigo Lopez, Aaron Cook and Juan Cruz and announced that righties Justin Friend and Kyle Simon would be invited to camp as NRIs, along with lefty Adam Morgan.

The list looks pretty much the same in my mind these days, with the exception of the addition of a few candidates:

I still feel pretty good about the Horst and Aumont picks. That gets the Phillies to ten pitchers — five starters and five relievers, including two lefties in Bastardo and Horst.

I feel like there’s a chance that Cook can challenge Lannan for the fifth starter job. But I still think Lannan is the guy. Kendrick ended the season pitching really well out of the rotation, but I shake the feeling that the Phillies would be better off using him as a long reliever. I don’t think that’s going to happen, though, at least not to start the season.

Assuming Kendrick is in the rotation, there’s still an issue about long relief. The Phillies don’t have a long man in the ten guys I mentioned. Juan Cruz seems like he might get some consideration for that role. I’d guess the Phils think Rosenberg could give them more than one inning.

I still think the last two spots are pretty wide open. Valdes and De Fratus were the two relievers I picked last time. Valdes was fantastic for the Phillies in 2012 and De Fratus has put up outstanding numbers in the minors over the last few years.

Valdes would be the third lefty in the pen, though. And they still wouldn’t have a long man. Stutes is the other guy who seems like a legit candidate if he shows he’s healthy early in camp. He was solid for the Phillies in 2011 and got four or more outs in 14 of his 57 appearances.

Anyway, I’ll stick with Horst, Aumont, Valdes and De Fratus for the last four spots. That leaves the Phils with 12 pitchers — Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Kendrick, Lannan, Papelbon, Adams, Bastardo, Horst, Aumont, De Fratus and Valdes. Still three lefties and still no long reliever. My top candidates among the guys not on that list would be Cruz, Rosenberg and Stutes.

This article suggests the Phillies have had the third-best off-season in the NL East.

In the most recent post, I took a guess at the hitters who might start the year with the Phillies as well as the guys contending for the other spots. Here’s today’s guess about the pitchers:

Lannan and Bastardo are the guys I feel least sure of among the eight pitchers I have on the team. But I think they both start the year on the staff with Lannan serving as the fifth starter. Halladay, Hamels, Lee, Kendrick, Papelbon and Adams seem like locks if they are healthy, although I think it’s possible, but unlikely, that Kendrick could be pitching out of the pen at the start of the year.

If those eight guys did make the opening day roster for the Phils, it would leave the pitching staff with four open slots (assuming the team starts the year with 12 pitchers).

Of those four spots, one should go to a long man, or at least someone who could pitch more than one inning, and at least one other would go to a lefty.

The Phillies have a lot of options when it comes to the second lefty in the pen. Horst and Valdes were both very good in 2012 and I think it’s possible they both make the team to start the year. If it’s just one of them, I’d give Horst an advantage over Valdes. I think Horst is pretty close to a lock to start the year with the team.

I think the issue of who will be the long man out of the pen is more complicated. Kendrick is the guy best-suited for that role, but the Phillies would likely prefer to have him pitch out of the rotation, coming off of a 2012 in which he threw to a 2.43 ERA over his last ten starts. Cloyd, Ethan Martin or Jonathan Pettibone seem like the candidates to make the team that are mostly likely to be able to give the Phillies more than one inning, but I have a little trouble seeing the Phillies carrying one of them to pitch out of the pen to start the year. My guess at this point would be that the Phillies don’t have a true long man out of the pen to start the year.

So if Horst takes one of the four open spots, that leaves the Phils with three.

The guy I feel next strongest about is Aumont, given the combination of his upside and some promising results in 2012. I’ll slot him into the tenth spot.

I think it’s really wide open after that. At this point I’ll take Valdes, based on his impressive 2012, for the eleventh slot. Beyond that I see it as close to a toss-up between Stutes and De Fratus as front-runners for the final spot. Stutes is coming off of a significant injury that sidelined him for much of 2012 and both should contribute to the team this year. Stutes helped the Phils a lot in 2011 and De Fratus has had several very impressive years in the minors in a row.

I’ll pick De Fratus for the twelfth spot.

So that gives the Phils 12 pitchers — Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Kendrick, Lannan, Papelbon, Adams, Bastardo, Horst, Aumont, Valdes and De Fratus. Five starters, seven relievers. Three lefties out of the pen and no long man in relief.

If that’s the staff heading into 2013, I expect we’ll all feel a whole lot more comfortable with the pitching than we do with the hitting to start the year.

This article from the Phillies web site adds Michael Cuddyer to the list of players the Phils might be pursuing that includes Hairston, Wells and Soriano.

This article suggests that if the outfield situation stays the same, we may see Brown getting a chance to be the everyday guy in right field to start the year with a platoon in left that includes some combination of the lefty Nix and righties Ruf and Mayberry. Mayberry seems like he should be a candidate to get some at-bats at first base against left-handed pitching as well.

There are a bunch of problems in left if that proves to be the case. One is that it’s hugely unlikely that Laynce Nix is going to be able to take all or maybe even most of the at-bats against righties in left field in 2013. Nix is 32 and has never gotten more than 400 plate appearances in a season. Phillie left fielders are going to get around 480 plate appearances against right-handed pitching in 2013. Nix has never had more than 321 plate appearances against righties in a season. So it seems likely that some parts of that platoon would be hitting a lot against righties. I don’t think you want to see a whole lot more of Mayberry hitting against righties given his 229/291/335 line against them in 2012. We’ll see on Ruf. He was 5-for-17 against righties last year with a home run.

The other important problem with Nix as the left-handed part of a platoon in left is that Nix, despite his left-handedness, isn’t exactly a fabulous hitter against right-handed pitching anyway. His career line against righties is 253/297/447. Last year he got just 117 plate appearances against righties, but put up a 248/316/390 line. So Nix probably couldn’t completely man a left-handed platoon in left anyway and if he could, you might not want him to.