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The Phillies took a 3-1 lead into the seventh inning yesterday. For the second time in two days they lost, falling 6-4 to the Pirates.

Between Bastardo, Aumont, Adams and Papelbon, the back of the bullpen should be a strength for the Phillies. Charlie Manuel sure looked afraid of it in yesterday afternoon’s game, though. Lee threw 122 pitches in the game. With two outs in the top of the seventh, Lee had thrown 107 pitches and the Phillies were up 3-1 with a Pirate runner on first. Lee stayed in the game and faced three right-handed hitters in a row, all of who singled, before getting the final out of the frame in what was now a tie game.

Aumont started the eighth and allowed four of the five men he faced to reach base before Durbin took over. Before the frame was over the Pirates had scored three more runs.

The Phillies did manage to score four runs. Coming into the game they had scored three or less in 11 of their last 13.

The Phillies are 9-14 on the year after losing to the Pirates 6-4 last night. The Pirates take the series three games to one. The Phillies have lost three in a row and are five games under .500 for the first time this year.

Lee got the start for the Phillies and went seven innings, allowing three runs on ten hits and a walk. One of the hits went for extra-bases, a solo home run. He struck out seven.

Lee’s ERA rises to 3.03 on the year with the outing. He’s allowed 17 hits in 12 innings over his last two outings. The Phils have lost the last three games he’s started.

Starling Marte singled off of Lee to start the top of the first, but Lee got the next three Pirates in order.

Pedro Alvarez singled to right with one out in the second, but Lee got Jose Tabata on a line drive to center for the second out and struck out Clint Barmes for the third.

The pitcher John McDonald started the third with a single to right, but Lee struck Marte out for the first out and Brandon Inge for the second. Andrew McCutchen flew to right to end the frame.

With one out in the fourth, Michael McKenry hit a ball to Frandsen at third. Frandsen threw it away for a two-base error, but Lee struck out Alvarez for the second out and got Tabata on a fly ball to center to leave McKenry stranded.

McDonald singled again with one out in the fifth and the Phils up 1-0. Lee struck Marte out behind him for the second out before Inge moved McDonald up to second with a soft single to left. Lee retired McCutchen on a ball taken by Nix in foul territory to leave both runners stranded.

Second hit of the game for McDonald off of Lee.

Sanchez led off the sixth and hit a 2-1 pitch from Lee out to left-center, tying the game at 1-1. Later in the frame, Alvarez delivered a one-out single, but Lee got the next two to leave him at first.

Lee started the seventh with the Phils up 3-1. Marte walked with one out, but Lee retired Inge on a fly ball to right for the second out. McCutchen was next and singled to left with Marte moving up to second. It brought Sanchez to the plate with men on first and second and he singled softly into center, scoring McCutchen to cut the lead to 3-2 with men on first and third. McKenry was next and he singled softly into center as well, scoring Marte to tie the game at 3-3 with runners on the corners. Alvarez popped to short to end the frame.

Aumont started the eighth in a tie game. He struck Walker out before hitting Barmes with a pitch. Barmes moved up to second on a single by lefty Travis Snider and Marte followed that with another single that loaded the bases. Lefty Garrett Jones hit for the rigthy Inge and doubled off the wall in right, scoring Barmes and Marte to put the Pirates up 5-3 with men on second and third and one down. Durbin took over for Aumont and walked McCutchen intentionally, loading the bases for Sanchez. Sanchez flew to right for the second out, Marte scored to make it 6-3 and Jones moved up to third. McKenry walked before Alvarez flew to center to finally end the inning.

Aumont faced five hitters, getting one out and allowing two singles, a double and hitting one batter. The three runs he was charged with in the game are the first earned runs charged to him for the season. He’s allowed seven hits and six walks in 6 2/3 innings, which gives him a 1.95 ratio.

Durbin faced four hitters, walking two (one intentionally) and getting two outs. He and Aumont have the same 4.05 ERA for the year and both have thrown 6 2/3 innings, but Durbin’s ratio is even higher than Aumont’s at 2.10. Durbin hasn’t been charged with a run over his last five appearances, but has allowed four hits and five walks in 5 2/3 innings.

Valdes started the ninth with the Phils down 6-4. Walker led off with a single. Barmes was next and bunted. Kratz jumped on it and he and Barmes got tangled up near the plate. Kratz threw to first, where Walker was safe. Barmes was really late getting out of the box, though, and Rollins threw to first in time to get him for the first out. Manuel came out and argued that Barmes had interfered with Kratz trying to field the ball and was ejected. Snider flew to center for the second out with Walker tagging and going to third. Valdes struck Marte out swinging to leave Walker at third.

Valdes allows a single in the scoreless inning, dropping his ERA on the year to 9.28 after six appearances. He’s struck out 12 in 10 2/3 innings, but allowed 16 hits. Opponents are hitting .356 against him.

Overall the pen goes two innings in the game, allowing three runs on four hits and two walks. Aumont threw 23 pitches in the game, Durbin 22 and Valdes 15.

The Phillie lineup against righty James McDonald went (1) Rollins (2) Frandsen (3) Utley (4) Howard (5) Nix (6) Brown (7) Carrera (8) Kratz. Young, Mayberry and Revere on the bench. Frandsen at third, Nix in right and Carrera in center. Kratz catches the day game after a night game after Quintero caught game three.

The Phillies went in order in the bottom of the first.

Howard led off the second with a double. Nix was next and hit the ball well, but Inge handled it at second and threw to first in time to retire Nix as Howard went to third. Brown and Carrera both struck out to leave Howard at second.

Third straight game that Howard has had an extra-base hit. Brown strikes out with one out and a man on third and it helps keep the Phillies off the board. Nix hit the ball well and Inge made a nice play.

Rollins walked with two outs in the third and two second on an error on a pickoff attempt by McDonald. Frandsen grounded to short to leave him stranded.

Rollins came into the game with no walks in his last 42 plate appearances.

Utley walked to start the fourth and took second on a wild pitch. Howard struck out for the first out and Nix flew to center for the second, bringing Brown to the plate with two outs and Utley still on second. Brown doubled to center, scoring Utley to put the Phils up 1-0. Carrera popped to first and leave Brown at second.

Lee singled with one out in the fifth, but was caught by McDonald for the second out. Rollins flew to right to end the inning.

It was 1-1 when Frandsen walked to start the sixth. Utley moved him to third with a single before Utley stole second, putting men on second and third for Howard. Howard singled into right, scoring Frandsen to make it 2-1 and sending Utley to third. Lefty Justin Wilson came in to pitch to Nix and Mayberry hit for Nix. Mayberry hit a ball to third, which Alvarez fielded and threw home in time for McKenry to tag Utley out trying to score for the first out. With Brown at the plate, the runners moved up to second and third on a wild pitch before Brown flew to center. Howard tagged and scored from third to extend the lead to 3-1. Carrera fouled out to Alvarez to end the inning.

It was 3-3 when Wilson set the Phils down order in the seventh. Young hit for Lee and flew to left for the second out.

Lefty Tony Watson started the eighth for the Pirates with Pittsburgh up 6-3. Franden led off with a double and Utley bunted him to third with the first out. He scored on a ground ball by Howard (6-4) before Mayberry popped out to end the frame.

Presumably Utley knew the Phillies were down three runs and had six outs left when he bunted Frandsen over to third. With the infield back, he may have thought he could bunt for a hit like he had earlier in the series.

Brown doubled to left to start the ninth. Carrera and Kratz went down behind him before Galvis hit for Valdes. Watson got Galvis on a popup to Alvarez to end the game.

Rollins was 0-for-3 with a walk in the game. 4-for-15 with a double and a walk in the series. 258/305/404 for the season. 216/273/314 over his last 55 plate appearances.

Frandsen 1-for-3 with a walk and a double. 2-for-4 with a walk and a double in the series. 313/389/438 for the season.

Utley 1-for-3 with a walk. 5-for-13 with a walk and a home run in the series. 309/360/543 for the year.

Howard 2-for-4 with a double in the game and 5-for-16 with two doubles and a home run in the set. 360/365/540 over his last 52 plate appearances. 284/302/432 for the year. Three walks for the season and one in his last 65 plate appearances.

Nix 0-for-2 in the game and 1-for-4 in the series. 250/289/444 for the year.

Brown 2-for-3 with two doubles and two RBI. 4-for-13 with a walk and two doubles in the series. 4-for-his-last-7. 243/325/371 on the year.

Carrera was 0-for-4 and struck out twice. 1-for-5 in the series and 1-for-12 on the year.

Kratz 0-for-4. 0-for-9 with two walks in the series. 185/206/308 on the season.

Kendrick (1-1, 3.28) faces righty Dillon Gee (1-3, 3.95) tonight in New York. Kendrick has been good three straight outings, throwing to a 1.89 ERA over those appearances. One of them came against the Mets and he allowed two runs over six innings. Gee has had two good starts on the season, in which he allowed one run over 12 innings, and two bad ones. Over the bad ones he’s allowed 12 runs in 7 2/3 innings. One of the bad ones came against the Phillies as he allowed seven runs in three innings. Mayberry, Young and Howard all homered off of him in that game.

Roy Halladay’s final spring start was neither a disaster or a resounding success. For those of us looking for signs of the old Halladay, though, it looked a little closer to a disaster. Halladay allowed two runs over 4 1/3 innings, but surrendered eight hits, walked two and got three outs on the bases as the Phils topped Toronto 7-2.

Five of the seven runs that the Phillies scored came on home runs. Utley hit a two-run shot in the sixth and Nix hit a three-run homer in the eighth.

Utley was 1-for-3 on the day with his fifth homer. Nix 1-for-4 with his second. 273/368/545 for Utley and 200/250/333 for Nix.

Revere had two more hits. 2-for-4 with his tenth stolen base. 337/382/398.

Rollins 0-for-3 to drop his average to .258. 258/395/355. Three extra-base hits, all doubles, in 31 at-bats has his isolated power under .100.

Brown 1-for-2. 376/430/671.

Kratz 1-for-3 to up his line to 273/293/550.

Galvis started at third and went 0-for-4, dropping his line to 269/288/526.

Inciarte 0-for-1 and hitting 276/364/310. Orr 0-for-2 and at 250/250/500.

Halladay got the start for the Phillies and went 4 1/3 innings, allowing two runs on eight hits and two walks. He retired the first four men he faced before Adam Lind doubled to left with one out in the second. Halladay walked the next two hitters on eight pitches, but struck Maicer Izturis and Emilio Bonifacio out back-to-back to leave them loaded. He allowed two runs in the third on four more hits, then gave up one single in a scoreless fourth. Two of the three batters he faced in the fifth singled before righty Hector Neris took over for the Phils.

Three of the 13 outs that Halladay got came on the bases. Two caught stealings and another runner was retired on a single.

6.06 ERA and a 1.84 ratio for Halladay. Opponents hit .323 against him. He walked nine in 16 1/3 innings, which is about 4.96 per nine and higher than his career walk rate of 1.86. Three home runs in 16 1/3 innings is about 1.65, which is also higher than his career rate of 0.75. Not a lot went well.

Through three starts, in the third of which he threw behind Washington’s Tyler Moore, Halladay had a 2.16 ERA and an 0.96 ratio and had pitched 8 1/3 innings. Since then he’s made three starts in which he’s thrown eight innings with a 10.12 ERA and 2.87 ratio.

Neris got the last two outs in the fifth and Cesar Jimenez struck out the side in the sixth.

Aumont threw a 1-2-3 seventh. 2.45 ERA and an 0.82 ratio in 7 1/3 innings. Opponents are hitting .120 against him without a home run.

Adams threw a 1-2-3 eighth. 1.13 ERA and an 0.63 ratio in eight innings. Opponents are hitting .143 against him with one walk and no home runs.

Papelbon set the Blue Jays down in order in the ninth. He’s been very good since a rocky start. Numbers are still ugly, though. 8.64 ERA with a 1.32 ratio.

The Phils play the Blue Jays tonight in Philadelphia with Lee expected to pitch. It’s the Blue Jays again on Saturday in another tuneup, then off on Sunday and the Braves for real in Atlanta Monday night.

This article from the Phillies web site has a projected Opening Day lineup against righty Tim Hudson. It has Brown in right hitting sixth and Nix in left hitting seventh. Three lefties two through four in Revere, Utley and Howard. I would guess we will not regularly see Revere, Utley and Howard hitting all in a row often during the regular season. If Domonic Brown continues to OPS 1.101 during the regular season, you won’t see him hitting sixth for very long.

This suggests the Phillies would rather play Brown in left field than right. That seems like a very good idea to me.

This suggests that when Delmon Young arrives, hopefully in early May, Young will play right with Brown in left. I’m going to be surprised if we see Young play much in right this year. If he does, I’m going to be even more surprised if he’s not terrible there.

Unusual choice. The Phils got crushed yesterday in a game most memorable for Jonathan Papelbon’s outing. Papelbon was charged with six runs over two-thirds of an inning and surrendered monster three-run home run to Miguel Cabrera.

The Tigers won the game 10-1. The Phillies have lost two of three so far and played to a tie in the other.

The Phils didn’t have an extra-base hit in the game. Howard was the offensive MVP of the contest, going 2-for-2 with a sac fly to plate the team’s lone run. Josh Fields, Galvis and Betancourt had the other three singles. Darin Ruf went 0-for-2 with a strikeout and is 0-for-8 so far. Inciarte walked in his only chance and has a 1.000 on-base percentage and an OPS of 2.000 after four plate appearances (1-for-1 with three walks). He’s been on base four more times than Ruf and has one at-bat.

There’s no way they could carry Inciarte to start the season, I hear you cry? Oh, there’s a way. 324 plate appearances for Michael Martinez over the last two years. Freddy Galvis, John Mayberry, Ty Wigginton and Placido Polanco all started on opening day in 2012 and the Phillies gave Juan Pierre 439 plate appearances for the season. Wilson Valdez got 663 plate appearances for the Phils in 2010 and 2011 combined.

So there’s a way. Just while we’re talking about it, Yuniesky Betancourt is 3-for-6 in the early going.

Things started out well enough on the pitching side. Lee and Cloyd threw the first four innings with each tossing a pair of scoreless frames.

Aumont was the other Phillie pitcher who was good in the game. He started the seventh with the Phils down 8-1 and set the Tigers down in order.

Papelbon getting hammered was the big surprise for the day. He started the fifth and faced nine hitters, getting two outs and allowing six runs on two walks, three singles and a pair of home runs. The three-run homer that Cabrera hit was the second Papelbon had allowed in the frame and came with one out and men on first and second. It went unusually far. Alfredo Simon bailed Papelbon out, facing one batter and getting a ground out to end the frame.

Stutes made his spring debut in the sixth and allowed a pair of runs. He walked the leadoff man, got the next two, but then allowed a walk and a two-run triple.

Valdes gave up a run on back-to-back doubles in the eighth, then returned for the ninth and allowed another run on a solo homer.

In yesterday’s game, left-handed pitchers threw seven of the nine innings for Detroit. In those seven innings, the Phillies scored a run on four singles and three walks. This article points out the problems the Phils might have with lefties this year. They didn’t have a lot of success against righties in yesterday’s game, either. Detroit righties threw two scoreless innings in which they allowed one single and struck out two.

Kendrick is expected to pitch this afternoon when the Phils face the Yankees.

Here was the most recent guess about the pitchers who start the year with the team, which came in this post at the end of January:

There have been some developments since then. The biggest is that Chad Durbin was signed and appears to be a lock to be a righty out of the pen. Juan Cruz and the Phillies have parted ways, presumably because Durbin appears to be a lock to be a righty out of the pen. JC Ramirez was DFA’ed and then sent to Triple-A. And the Phillies signed two lefties who are unlikely to see time with the big league club soon, David Newmann and Corey Young.

So I add Durbin to the list and removed Cruz. Ramirez will still be in camp as an NRI, although he seems like a long shot to start the year with the team, he’s still in the right-hand column of other candidates.

So nine slots now filled. Five starters and four relievers. Of the relievers, they have a closer, a setup guy and one lefty.

Assuming 12 pitchers to start the year, they have three open spots.

Last time I guessed I had them with eight filled slots and gave the last four to Horst, Aumont, Valdes and De Fratus, which left the Phils with three lefties in the pen and no true long man.

One big question with the current staff is whether Chad Durbin can pitch more than one inning or if the Phillies will use him to do so. Durbin was very good in 2012, arguably the best he had been since ’08 with the Phils, but didn’t go more than an inning a whole lot of times. Durbin got more than three outs in three of his 76 appearances for Atlanta in ’12. He threw more than 25 pitches in a game in four of 76. In 2008, the Phillies had Durbin throw more than 25 pitches in 18 of 71 appearances. On May 18, 2008, Durbin threw 66 pitches in relief of Kendrick after Kendrick exited after just one inning.

But it’s not 2008 anymore. And I would guess we aren’t going to see Durbin go more than an inning very often. So I’d say they still don’t have a long guy out of the pen.

I really have trouble seeing the Phillies not carry Horst to start the year given his performance in 2012 (he threw to a 1.15 ERA with a 1.12 ratio and 40 strikeouts over 31 1/3 innings).

I think that gets them to ten and leaves them with two slots open. I see Aumont, De Fratus, Stutes and Valdes as the guys with the best chances to fill the remaining slots. Aumont seems to have the biggest upside of the group. De Fratus has been fantastic in the minors in recent years. Stutes will need to prove he’s healthy, but was a big contributor for the 2011 Phils. Valdes threw to a 2.90 ERA with an 0.74 ratio for the Phils in 2012.

Aumont’s upside potential makes me feel like there’s some separation between him and the rest of the candidates. So I’ll put him in the eleventh spot. I think the last spot is a total tossup. Valdes would give the Phillies three lefties, so I’ll go with De Fratus once again.

That gives us 12 pitchers: Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Lannan, Kendrick, Papelbon, Adams, Durbin, Bastardo, Horst, Aumont and De Fratus.

Ben Revere wants to get on base more.

This article talks about depth in the starting rotation beyond the top five starters. It’s not real good.

Former Phillie hitting coach Greg Gross comments on some past and current Phillie hitters in this article.

Freeze frame, November, 2012. The Phillies shock the baseball world by naming you their new GM. Your job — add a starting center fielder, a starting third baseman, a starting corner outfielder, a top setup man and a fifth starter. Trade Vance Worley, Trevor May, Josh Lindblom and Lisalverto Bonilla if you want, but make sure you take on less than $20 million in 2013 payroll.

Good luck.

If that’s your charge and you come back with Ben Revere, Michael Young, Delmon Young, John Lannan and Mike Adams, you’ve done your job.

Obviously Amaro had more flexibility than that, especially around who he traded. Keeping Worley would have made adding a fifth starter unnecessary. And some of the positions he filled from outside of the organization could have been filled from within. If the Phillies fail to play Domonic Brown just about every day to start 2013, they’re making a mistake. But they haven’t done that yet and, no matter what they say in January, I don’t think they will. And I don’t think that the off-season has been a disaster for the Phillies.

If there’s a disaster here, and despite how ugly 2012 was, I don’t think this is a disaster yet, it didn’t start this off-season. It started a couple of years ago and moves slow.

Success or failure for the 2013 Phillies is going to have a whole lot more to do with what Ryan Howard, Jonathan Papelbon, Chase Utley, Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee combine to produce for the $137ish million the Phils have committed to pay them than it will with what Delmon Young produces for the $750,000 they’ve committed to pay him. And a lot of what we saw in 2012 should make you worry about that group’s ability to produce $137 million worth of value in 2013.

You can pay all five of the new guys mentioned above this season with the $20 million the Phils have committed to Howard. With a couple of million left over. You can get most of the way there with the $13 million they’re going to pay Papelbon.

It’s a lotta eggs in a small number of baskets. There is no solution if those eggs can’t play anymore or simply have bad contracts — but it’s not Delmon Young’s fault, either. The choices are declare it’s over and rebuild or declare it’s not and do what you can with the limited flexibility that you have left. I’m glad they chose the later. This is what do what you can with the limited flexibility you have looks like.

Bottom line for me is that the Phillies may have made mistakes. Some of them are big mistakes. Maybe too big for the team to overcome in next few seasons. I’m a lot less sure they came this off-season, though.

Yesterday I updated my guess on who the hitters on the team are at this point. Earlier this month I made a guess on the pitching side. Here’s what I came up with then:

Assuming 12 pitching spots to start the season, I gave the four open slots to Horst, Aumont, Valdes and De Fratus.

Not a whole lot has changed since January 9. The Phillies signed free agent righties Rodrigo Lopez, Aaron Cook and Juan Cruz and announced that righties Justin Friend and Kyle Simon would be invited to camp as NRIs, along with lefty Adam Morgan.

The list looks pretty much the same in my mind these days, with the exception of the addition of a few candidates:

I still feel pretty good about the Horst and Aumont picks. That gets the Phillies to ten pitchers — five starters and five relievers, including two lefties in Bastardo and Horst.

I feel like there’s a chance that Cook can challenge Lannan for the fifth starter job. But I still think Lannan is the guy. Kendrick ended the season pitching really well out of the rotation, but I shake the feeling that the Phillies would be better off using him as a long reliever. I don’t think that’s going to happen, though, at least not to start the season.

Assuming Kendrick is in the rotation, there’s still an issue about long relief. The Phillies don’t have a long man in the ten guys I mentioned. Juan Cruz seems like he might get some consideration for that role. I’d guess the Phils think Rosenberg could give them more than one inning.

I still think the last two spots are pretty wide open. Valdes and De Fratus were the two relievers I picked last time. Valdes was fantastic for the Phillies in 2012 and De Fratus has put up outstanding numbers in the minors over the last few years.

Valdes would be the third lefty in the pen, though. And they still wouldn’t have a long man. Stutes is the other guy who seems like a legit candidate if he shows he’s healthy early in camp. He was solid for the Phillies in 2011 and got four or more outs in 14 of his 57 appearances.

Anyway, I’ll stick with Horst, Aumont, Valdes and De Fratus for the last four spots. That leaves the Phils with 12 pitchers — Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Kendrick, Lannan, Papelbon, Adams, Bastardo, Horst, Aumont, De Fratus and Valdes. Still three lefties and still no long reliever. My top candidates among the guys not on that list would be Cruz, Rosenberg and Stutes.

This article suggests the Phillies have had the third-best off-season in the NL East.

Continuing down the Start Log is more information on quality starts. Here’s some info on quality starts by Phillies pitchers over the past three seasons:

So the percentage of starts the Phillies made that were quality starts in 2012 is down from 2011, but higher than it was in 2010. The quality starts they did get were worse than in either of the two previous years and the non-quality starts they got were also worse than they have been in either of the two previous years.

Most importantly, though, the team’s results in 2012 were a whole lot worse in games when they either got or didn’t get a quality start. Their winning percentage in quality starts in 2012 was .626. Their winning percentage in all games in 2011, whether they got a quality start or not, was .630. The .626 winning percentage in quality starts in 2012 was .143 lower than their winning percentage in quality starts in 2011 and .108 lower than their winning percentage in quality starts in 2010.

For non-quality starts, the winning percentage is down .050 from 2011 and .110 from 2010.

The drop in all of those winning percentages obviously has more than a little to do with the offense. The Phillies were eighth in the NL in runs scored in 2012, seventh in 2011 and second in 2010.

Jimmy Rollins appears to be the shortstop for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic. Gillies, Aumont and Orr will play for Team Canada. The WBC starts on March 2. It has been held twice before, in 2006 and 2009, with Japan winning both times. USA’s best finish has been fourth (in 2009).

This article suggests that Cody Asche could be the team’s third baseman in 2014. It’s going to surprise me if the Phillies give him the everyday job in 2014. It’s going to surprise me a little if he gets more than a handful of at-bats for the Phillies in 2014, actually. Asche has two years in the minors so far. In one of them he hit .192 in 268 plate appearances in the New York-Penn League.

Article on 22-year-old right-handed pitcher Kyle Simon here. Simon joined the Phillies last year in the Thome deal. He had struggled in Baltimore’s minors in 2012, but threw to a 1.36 ERA with an 0.71 ratio in 39 2/3 innings between Clearwater and Reading after joining the Phils.