Tag: Phillies roster

2009 one last time

We won’t have to wait that much longer to actually see who’s going to be on the Phillies opening day roster, so here’s my final guess.

Still looks like ten hitters we know for sure are on the squad:


Player

Position
1
Ryan Howard

1B
2 Chase Utley
2B
3
Jimmy Rollins

SS
4
Pedro Feliz

3B
5
Shane Victorino

OF
6
Jayson Werth

OF
7
Raul Ibanez

OF
8
OF
9
Carlos Ruiz
C
10 C
11
Eric Bruntlett

UT
12
Greg Dobbs

3B/OF
13
UT
14

Assuming the Phils start the year with 13 hitters, which I think they will, there are three spots left. One has to go to a catcher and another to a fourth outfielder.

The top candidates for the three spots look to include Marcus Giles, Miguel Cairo, Pablo Ozuna, Ronny Paulino, Chris Coste, John Mayberry, Matt Stairs and Geoff Jenkins.

Of the three spots, one has to go to either Paulino or Coste. Jenkins is a strong front-runner for the second. I think Jenkins is on the team as the fourth outfielder, partly because he’s harder to trade than Stairs because of his contract. He is also far better defensively.

One of Coste or Paulino has to make the team as the second catcher along with Ruiz. Both can be sent to the minors if they’re still in the organization when the season starts and both have been awful this spring. Paulino has hit just 185/267/333 in 27 at-bats. Coste has been slowed by injury and gone just 2-for-18 (.111) with two singles.

I’ve been saying all along that I thought Paulino would make the team. He has gotten a big chance this spring and done nothing with it. Multiple reports, including this one, suggest the Phillies are looking to trade Paulino. The linked article suggests Robert Andino as possible fruit of a Paulino trade. Ew. I would be a little surprised to see Paulino traded, I’ve been assuming Coste is the guy they want to trade. I’m going to flip on this one nonetheless and guess Coste at this point.

That leaves one spot for Cairo, Ozuna, Paulino, Giles, Mayberry or Stairs. I don’t think the Phils will keep three catchers, especially given how badly Paulino has hit this spring. Giles also got a chance, but he has hit just 182/289/273 in 33 at-bats this spring. Despite his solid 279/323/525 line this spring, I think Mayberry is going to the minors. His .323 on-base percentage shouldn’t be overlooked, given that his career on-base percentage in the minors is .330.

I would be more surprised to see the Phils keep Ozuna than Cairo. Ozuna has actually outhit Cairo. Pablo has been on fire this spring and put up a 364/432/455 line in 33 at-bats compared to an also impressive 302/348/535 line for Cairo over 43 at-bats. My guess is if it’s one or the other it will be Cairo rather than Ozuna, mostly just based on the fact that the Phils have given Cairo more time this spring.

That leaves Stairs. I would guess that he will not be with the organization when the season starts. If he is, though, he’s on the team, either in the spot I just gave to Cairo or as the 14th hitter with the Phils going with 11 pitchers.

Ten of the Phillies pitching spots are likely to be filled by these guys:


Player

Position
1
Cole Hamels (left)

SP
2
Brett Myers (right)

SP
3
Joe Blanton (right)

SP
4
Jamie Moyer (left)

SP
5
SP
6
Ryan Madson (right)
 RP
7
Chan Ho Park (right)

SP/RP
8
Clay Condrey (right)

RP
9
Scott Eyre (left)

RP
10
Chad Durbin (right)

RP
11  
RP
12
Brad Lidge (right)

CLOSER

In part because of the minor injury problems with Hamels and Park, I think the Phillies will go with 12 pitchers to start the season despite having three off-days before they play their eighth came of the season. Especially with Hamels having been unable to work up his pitch counts, I think the Phils will want to carry seven relievers.

I think Park won the fifth starter’s job this spring. I think Happ is still on the team to pitch out of the pen as the second lefty. That assumes the Phillies do not add another lefty before the start of the season.

That leaves one spot, assuming the Phils carry 12 pitchers. I think that goes to Majewski or Koplove and both have been very good this spring. Majewski has a 3.27 ERA and a 1.27 ratio in 11 innings. Koplove has pitched less, just 6 1/3 innings, but thrown to a 1.42 ERA with a 1.11 ratio. I think it’s interesting that Majewkski has thrown significantly more innings than Koplove, which may mean the Phils are leaning that way. I think Koplove has a better chance to make a significant positive contribution this season, though, so that’s the way I’ll guess.

That slot seems like it would be the one to go if the Phils carried just 11 pitchers, presumably with Stairs being the 14th hitter. The other issue is that if Stairs does get traded, the deal may bring in a player that will start the year with the team and take up a roster spot. That move would also presumably knock off Majewski or Koplove. It could also knock off Happ for the first few games of the season if he proved to be the winner of the fifth starter competition rather than a guy who will pitch out of the pen.

Here’s my guess then:

Hitters (13): Howard, Utley, Rollins, Feliz, Ibanez, Victorino, Werth, Ruiz, Bruntlett, Dobbs, Jenkins, Coste, Cairo.

Pitchers (12): Hamels, Myers, Blanton, Moyer, Park, Madson, Happ, Condrey, Eyre, Durbin, Koplove, Lidge.

The Phillies did not play yesterday. They play the Yankees today with Carlos Carrasco expected to pitch.

Philliesflow still has a Twitter page.


Some combination of less Nunez and much better pitchers may be the way to go for Phils

The Phils had pretty good win-loss numbers when they didn’t allow many runs, too:


Runs Allowed

W-L

Cumulative W-L
0 5-0 5-0
1 10-1 15-1
2 18-3 33-4
3 20-3 53-7
4 14-9 67-16
5 7-14 74-30
6 7-6 81-36
7 4-7 85-43
8 2-9 87-52
9 0-4 87-56
10 1-5 88-61
11 1-4 89-65
12 0-3 89-68
> 12 0-5 89-73

Phils were pretty tough to beat when they allowed less than five runs. 67-16.

When they allowed more than six runs they were 8-37. That’s not good, but still better than their opponents did when the Phils scored more than six runs in a game. Per yesterday’s post the Phils were 46-2 when they scored more than six runs.

22-57 when they allowed more than four runs.

You can view the Phillies’ record by runs allowed by their starting pitcher in the start log.

The Phils fell to the Yankees last night, losing 13-4 to drop to 11-14 in spring training.

Moyer got the start for the Phils and went four innings, allowing three runs on eight hits and a walk. Only two of the runs were earned. Two of the hits went for extra-bases, a double and a home run. JD Durbin followed Moyer and allowed six runs in an inning on six hits and a walk. Durbin gave up a three-run homer to Robinson Cano and a two-run shot to Melky Cabrera. With Lidge going to the DL the door is wide open for Durbin, but his ERA is up to 12.33 with the outing. In 15 1/3 spring innings Durbin has now allowed eight home runs — no player has allowed more this spring. The door is not quite as wide open for Vic Darensbourg, but he got hammered too. Darensbourg followed Durbin and allowed four runs in an inning on five hits. Only three of the runs were earned. His ERA is up to 5.63. Knotts walked one in a scoreless seventh and Flash struck out two in a perfect eighth.

Feliz was 2-for-3 with a two-run homer and three RBI for the Phils. The shot off of Phil Hughes was the only extra-base hit of the game for the Phils. Snelling 0-for-4 to drop his average to .205. Coste was 0-for-4 with two strikeouts and an error. He’s hitting .179. Bruntlett was 1-for-2 with a walk and a stolen base.

The Phillies made four errors in the game, three of them throwing errors.

The Phils play the Reds this afternoon.

The Phillies put Brad Lidge on the DL. He will be eligible to return on April 5.

I think that Condrey and Chad Durbin both make the team. That makes 23 active players that look like they’ll start the season with the Phils:

Hitters (13): Howard, Utley, Rollins, Burrell, Victorino, Werth, Ruiz, Dobbs, Feliz, Coste, Bruntlett, Taguchi, Jenkins

Pitchers (10): Hamels, Myers, Moyer, Kendrick, Eaton, Gordon, Madson, Romero, Condrey, Chad Durbin.

It looks like these six guys are the candidates for two remaining spots: Blackley, JD Durbin, Helms, Knotts, Darensbourg and Snelling. Blackley looks like he’s got the best shot cause of the need for the second lefty and because he’ll have to be returned to the Giants if he’s not on the roster. JD Durbin is out of options. Helms is obviously an issue and his spring numbers are good at this point. I’d say the other three guys are long shots of the group.

John Patterson, recently cut by the Nationals, signed with the Rangers.

Kris Benson can opt out of his contract if he’s not on the 40-man roster as of today. Same article says that the Phils have no interest in Aaron Fultz, who was released by the Indians.


Phils hopefully looking for more pitchers or an unusually competitive T-ball league

As the Phillies opened spring training, I saw 22 guys as sure things to make the opening day roster. They were:


Hitters

Pitchers
1 Howard Hamels
2 Utley Myers
3 Rollins Kendrick
4 Burrell Moyer
5 Victorino Eaton
6 Werth Lidge
7 Ruiz Gordon
8 Feliz Madson
9 Jenkins Romero
10 Dobbs
11 Coste
12 Bruntlett
13 Taguchi

Of that group of hitters I think all 13 are still locks to be on the roster when the season begins. Taguchi is the only guy I question at all and he’s been on fire this spring, hitting 415/545/529 in 17 at-bats.

That’s a full roster of hitters unless the Phils go with 14.

Of the nine pitchers, Hamels, Kendrick, Eaton and Gordon have all struggled badly, but there’s close to zero chance Hamels and Gordon don’t start the season on the roster. As badly as he’s pitched, Kendrick’s hold on his spot in the rotation seems solid unless things get worse for him, which is pretty hard to imagine. If Eaton isn’t on the roster on opening day he’ll be on the DL. Romero has only thrown one official spring inning, Lidge none. Moyer, Madson and Myers have pitched well.

Eaton and Lidge both seem to be question marks for the opening day roster. Lidge because of the knee surgery and Eaton because of the back problems in combination with the 15.75 ERA (fourth best in the Phils rotation). I would guess that both still make the opening day roster. That leaves us with 22.

Just about everyone says that Chad Durbin is a lock for the tenth pitching slot. Here’s what Chad Durbin has done so far:

 

IP


ERA


Ratio

Chad Durbin

5.0

7.20

1.20

Opponents are hitting .286 against him, but if he really was in when spring training started I don’t think he’s pitched himself out. If he’s the tenth pitcher, that makes 23.

If the Phils are going to carry 14 hitters, the 14th will almost certainly be Helms or Snelling. Here’s what they have done so far:


Helms

5-for-23

217/280/261

Snelling

4-for-17

235/316/294

Helms has just been miserable. Snelling started camp as a longer shot than Helms and hasn’t been much better. At this point I would guess that Snelling is just about out of the picture with Helms still a possibility, especially depending on the injury status of Lidge and Eaton as the season begins.

If you assume that Chad Durbin is the tenth pitcher, Lidge and Eaton both start the year on the active roster and the Phils don’t carry a 14th hitter, that leaves two pitchers who would likely come from this group:

 

IP


ERA


Ratio
C Condrey 7.1 4.91 1.23
F Castro 7.0 5.14 1.43
JD Durbin 9.1 9.64 2.36
F Rosario 8.2 1.04 0.92
S Youman 6.2 5.40 1.65
T Blackley 7.2 8.22 1.70
G Knotts 3.0 0.00 1.00
V Darensbourg 4.0 2.25 1.00

If you think about the guys who have helped and hurt themselves the most since spring training began, I think you would have to say that Rosario is the guy who has opened the most eyes while JD Durbin and Blackley are the pair that came in with a real opportunity to make the team but have hurt their chances.

I still think the Phillies need a second lefty in their pen. I see them as needing one pitcher from the group of lefties (Castro, Youman, Blackley and Darensbourg) and one from the group of righties (Condrey, JD Durbin, Rosario and Knotts). Rosario is out of options and has been pitching great. I see him as the pick from the righties with Condrey close behind. The lefties are harder. In limited action, Darensbourg has been the least bad, but I think he came into camp as a long shot to win a roster spot. I don’t feel real comfortable about, but if I’m going to guess again I’d still take Castro. There’s also a good chance, as this article suggests, that the second lefty in the pen will be a player not currently in the organization.

That would make their opening day roster:

Hitters (13): Howard, Utley, Rollins, Feliz, Burrell, Victorino, Jenkins, Werth, Ruiz, Bruntlett, Dobbs, Coste, Taguchi

Pitchers (12): Hamels, Myers, Kendrick, Moyer, Gordon, Lidge, Madson, Romero, Eaton, Chad Durbin, Castro, Rosario

My most recent guess was on February 13. I had JD Durbin as the last pitcher instead of Rosario.

Last night the Phils lost to the Reds 6-1 to fall to 4-10 in spring training.

Ryan Madson got the start for the Phils and went three innings, allowing a run on solo home run to Jerry Hairston. Madson walked one and allowed three hits. Castro was next and he allowed two runs on five hits over two runs. Both of the runs scored on a two-run homer by Scott Hatteberg. Blackley followed Castro and struck out five over three innings, but allowed two runs on two hits and two walks to puff his ERA to 8.22. Both of the runs he allowed came on a two-run shot by Craig Tatum. Condrey pitched the ninth and allowed a run on two hits.

Offensively the Phillies lineup featured basically all the Phillies regulars with Dobbs at DH. They scored one run on five hits, all singles, and a walk. Dobbs was 2-for-4 with an RBI. Ruiz 1-for-3 with a walk. Utley was 0-for-3 with two strikeouts to drop his spring average to .214. Jayson Werth played center for the Phils, which is just great. I really hope the Phils see Werth as a viable option in center behind Victorino — he’s by far a better hitter than Taguchi or Bruntlett. I believe he can handle the position defensively. He doesn’t have a lot of innings there, but in the innings he’s played the numbers are good.

The Phils play the Reds again tonight.

The Phillies offered Lincoln Holdzkom back to the Red Sox, who refused him, making him a free agent. That may help create room on the 40-man roster for Benson, who can opt out of his contract on March 25 if he’s not on the roster.

This article says that 1) Lidge hopes to be able to pitch in a game next week 2) Eaton felt good in a bullpen session and will pitch in a minor league game on Saturday 3) Benson will throw in a minor league game today and 4) Hamels didn’t pitch in a minor league game yesterday because he has the flu.

Moyer will start the third game of the season for the Phils, Kendrick the fourth. Whether or not Kendrick can get anyone out is going to be a lot more interesting than whether he’s the third starter or the fourth.

This suggests that Kyle Lohse is being pursued by the Cardinals, Giants and Rangers. This suggests that Lohse may get a one-year deal worth less than $5 million. The Phillies have big problems with their pitching, in the rotation and in the pen. If they had an opportunity to sign Lohse to a one-year deal worth around $5 million and didn’t do it that would be really disappointing.


Ready or not, here they Holdzkom

Pitchers and catchers report tomorrow. Here’s how I see the Phils’ roster shaping up as we head into spring training.

Among the hitters, these are the guys I see as 100% to make the team:

1. Howard
2. Utley
3. Rollins
4. Feliz
5. Burrell
6. Victorino
7. Jenkins
8. Werth
9. Ruiz

And just behind them, almost sure things to make the team, I’d have

10. Bruntlett
11. Dobbs

Bruntlett is just about the only option to backup short and second. Dobbs has big appeal as a left-handed bat.

I think Chris Coste almost assuredly makes the team.

12. Coste

The only other choice for the second catcher looks like it’s Jaramillo. I think the Phils are wary of Coste behind the plate, but I think he still gets the nod over the 25-year-old Jaramillo.

Assuming the Phils carry 12 pitchers, that leaves one spot for these three guys and I think you have to assume they go with Taguchi because of his defense.

13. Taguchi
Helms
Snelling

I’m assuming that Helms gets traded. If he doesn’t I think he’s on the team, even if it means the Phils have to carry 14 hitters. If the Phils pick their final hitter from those three players I’m hoping for Helms or Snelling, but I think if the Phils go with 13 hitters the last would be Taguchi as the fifth outfielder.

I would be surprised if any other hitter wound up on the roster to start the season.

The pitching side is far more wide open. I see eight guys as hundred percenters for 12 pitching spots:

1. Hamels
2. Myers
3. Kendrick
4. Moyer
5. Gordon
6. Lidge
7. Madson
8. Romero

Four starters and four relievers.

Unless the Phillies add Kyle Lohse my guess is that Eaton is the fifth starter. It sounds as if the chances are good that the Phils are about to add Kris Benson, so his competition for the role may include Benson, Chad Durbin, Blackley, JD Durbin and Outman. I don’t think there’s much of a chance Eaton starts the season in the pen, so it’s either the rotation or the DL. I think it’s the rotation.

9. Eaton

I also think the Chad Durbin will make the team, pitching out of the pen to start the year.

10. Chad Durbin

After that things get pretty fuzzy.

The Phils have one lefty in the pen in Romero. I think they need another from the group of Happ, Blackley, Smith, Zagurski, Youman, Outman, Darensbourg, Mazone, Savery and Castro. An article linked below says that Smith won’t compete for a job this spring and Zagurski isn’t a hundred percent. I see Castro and Youman as the primary candidates with Blackley, Outman, Darensbourg and Happ behind them — don’t have a strong feeling but I’ll take Castro.

11. Castro
Youman
Blackley
Outman
Darensbourg
Happ
Zagurski
Mazone
Savery
Smith

If the Phils go with 14 hitters, that’s a full roster. If the go with 13 hitters and another pitcher, barring an addition the pitcher seems sure to come from this list:

JD Durbin
Youman
Rosario
Condrey
Outman
Bisenius
Mathieson
Blackley
Happ
Ennis
Holdzkom
Darensbourg
Segovia
Mazone
Knotts
Chiavacci

I see everyone on that list below Mathieson as a real long shot. Honestly it’s not a real exciting list. I would love to see Outman win a spot but I think there’s some guys who go in with at least a slightly better chance. The Phils gave JD Durbin, Rosario and Condrey innings last season so I think you have to look at them as having a leg up on the other guys as camp opens.

The last spot or spots in the pen is wide open. If I had to guess now I’d go with JD Durbin.

That makes my final guess the day before pitchers and catchers are due to report this:

Hitters (13): Howard, Utley, Rollins, Feliz, Burrell, Victorino, Jenkins, Werth, Ruiz, Bruntlett, Dobbs, Coste, Taguchi

Pitchers (12): Hamels, Myers, Kendrick, Moyer, Gordon, Lidge, Madson, Romero, Eaton, Chad Durbin, Castro, JD Durbin

This article says that Scott Mathieson has had discomfort in his pitching elbow. That is not good news.

The article linked above also says that there will be a resolution regarding Benson soon, within 24 to 48 hours.

In this article Gillick talks about the possibility of carrying 14 hitters, the 14th of which would presumably be Helms or Snelling. He also says that if the Phils did go with 11 pitchers they would need to make sure that the last guys they add in the pen are capable of pitching more than one inning. I’d really like the Phils to carry Snelling, but if they do I hope it’s in place of Taguchi and not as a sixth outfielder.

This article suggests that Eaton’s problems last season may have been compounded by personal issues as well as physical ones. No doubt there’s nothing wrong with him that can’t be helped by Manuel saying stuff like he has to “show the reason why we got him.”


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