Tag: Philadelphia Phillies

An imperfect ten

The Phillies have played more than a quarter of the 2013 season and won one game of the ten started by Cole Hamels. They’re 11-4 when Kendrick or Pettibone start and 8-18 when they start Hamels, Halladay or Lee. Last night, Hamels pitched well again, but the offense provided a single run and the Phils fell 5-1 to the Marlins.

The Phillies have scored one run or less in four of the last six games that Hamels has started. Last night they faced Alex Sanabia, who came into the game having thrown to a 5.00 ERA in his eight starts this year while opposing batters posted a 316/400/531 line against him.

The Phillie bullpen continues to be miserable, allowing three runs over two innings last night. They have a 5.26 ERA and a 1.65 ratio over the last 19 games with 59 hits allowed in 49 2/3 innings.

The Phillies are 21-24 on the season after losing 5-1 to the Miami Marlins last night.

Hamels got the start for the Phillies and went six innings, allowing two runs on seven hits. Two of the hits went for extra-bases, a double and a triple. He struck out ten and didn’t walk a batter.

Hamels struggled in each of his first two starts this season, but has thrown to a 3.12 ERA in his eight outings since. His walk rate is still up — over his last eight starts he’s walked about 3.3 per nine inning. Coming into 2013 he had walked about 2.2 per nine for his career.

He has made seven quality starts in his last eight appearances.

Adeiny Hechavarria singled to right to start the bottom of the first. He stole second with one out and went to third on an infield single by Derek Dietrich. It brought Marcell Ozuna to the plate with one out and runners on the corners. Ozuna singled into center, scoring Hechavarria (1-0) and moving Dietrich up to second. Justin Ruggiano grounded into a double-play to end the inning.

Hamels allows three singles and a stolen base in the inning, but holds the Fish to a single run with the help of the double-play.

It was 1-1 when Chris Coghlan tripled over the head of Revere in center to start the bottom of the second. Hamels kept him from scoring, though, getting Nick Green to foul out to third, Jeff Mathis to pop to short and pitcher Alex Sanabia swinging for the third out.

No run for Miami after the leadoff triple.

Hamels threw a 1-2-3 third.

He struck out the first two men in the fourth before Coghlan singled to left. Coghlan took second on an errant pickoff throw by Hamels before Green struck out swinging to leave Coghlan at second.

Young should have handled the throw from Hamels, which was wide of the base, but catchable.

Hamels struck out Mathis and Sanabia in a 1-2-3 fifth.

Placido Polanco singled to center to start the sixth. Hamels struck Dietrich and Ozuna out before Ruggiano doubled off of the wall in right, scoring Polanco to make it 2-1. Coghlan went down swinging to leave Ruggiano at second.

Justin De Fratus pitched the seventh. Mathis reached on a throwing error by Galvis with one out, but De Fratus got the next two to leave Mathis stranded.

Polanco singled to left off of De Fratus to start the eighth. Horst came in to pitch to the lefty Dietrich and got him on a fly ball to center for the first out. Aumont took over to face the righty Ozuna and Ozuna singled to left, moving Polanco up to third. It brought Ruggiano to the plate and he singled into center, scoring Polanco (3-1) and moving Ozuna up to second. Aumont struck Coghlan out swinging for the second out, putting men on first and second for Green. Green blooped a ball into shallow center field, just in front of a diving Revere. The ball was in the air a long time and with two outs, both runners were running and both scored. 5-1. Aumont struck Mathis out to leave Green stranded.

Green’s ball was in the air a long, long time. Not sure why Revere was playing him so deep, but I was surprised the ball wasn’t caught.

De Fratus faced five men in the game. He got three outs, one reached on an error and the other singled. The singled came in to score after he left the game, so he winds up allowing a run on a hit over one inning. He was pitching on back-to-back days for the first time this season and has now allowed a run in 3 1/3 innings over five appearances.

Horst faced one batter and got an out. He has gotten a single out in each of his last four outings. He hasn’t been charged with a run in any of his last seven appearances, but has allowed four walks and a hit over four scoreless innings.

Aumont faces five batters in the game, allowing three singles and striking out two. The first two singles were traditional, but Green’s ball was a popup that stayed in the air a long time. His ERA rises to 4.15 with the outing, but he’s been a lot worse than that. 2.08 ratio. Ten walks in 13 innings. Opponents are hitting .309 against him for the season. Over his last two appearances he’s been charged with three runs on five hits in one inning.

Overall the pen went two innings in the game, allowing three runs on four hits and striking out three. De Fratus threw 15 pitches in the game and has thrown two days in a row.

The Phillie lineup against righty Alex Sanabia went (1) Rollins (2) Revere (3) Michael Young (4) Utley (5) Brown (6) Delmon Young (7) Galvis (8) Kratz. Michael Young plays first with Galvis at third and Howard sidelined with his knee. Kratz catches with Ruiz on the DL.

Rollins singled to start the top of the first, but Rollins grounded into a double-play behind him and Michael Young struck out looking.

The Phillies were down 1-0 when they hit in the second. With one out, Brown hit the first pitch he saw from Sanabia out to right, tying the game at 1-1. Delmon Young and Galvis went down behind him.

Eighth homer of the year for Brown and his fifth against a righty. 237/291/398 against right-handed pitching for the season.

Rollins doubled to right with two outs in the third. Revere flew to center to leave him at second.

The one and two hitters in the Phillie lineup end the day on-basing .306 and .291 for the season.

Michael Young singled to left to start the fourth, but Utley grounded into a double-play behind him. Brown followed with a single to left and stole second before Delmon Young struck out swinging to end the frame.

The Phillies went in order in the fifth.

Michael Young doubled to center with two outs in the sixth and Sanabia hit Utley behind him. Brown was next and drove a ball to left, but Coghlan made a nice running catch to leave both runners stranded.

The Phils trailed 2-1 when they hit in the seventh. Galvis walked with one out and moved up to third when Kratz followed with a single to right. Nix hit for Hamels and righty Ryan Webb came in to face him. Nix popped to shallow right with the runners holding for the second out. Rollins grounded to second to end the frame.

No run for the Phillies after putting runners on the corners with one out. Nix gets to hit against the righty and can’t bring the runner home from third with the second out.

Hamels had only thrown 89 pitches in the game. He gets pulled for Nix. Nix doesn’t get the job done and neither does the pen after the exit by Hamels.

Righty AJ Ramos walked Utley with two outs in the eighth. Utley was caught stealing with Brown at the plate to set the Phillies down.

Second caught stealing for Utley this season. He hasn’t been caught more than twice in a season since 2006. Since the end of 2006 he has stolen 89 bases and been caught eight times.

Righty Chad Qualls threw a 1-2-3 ninth, striking out Delmon Young and Galvis to lower his ERA on the year to 3.63 and his ratio to 1.15.

Rollins was 2-for-4 with a double. 326/362/558 over his last 48 plate appearances.

Revere 0-for-4. Couldn’t come up with the bloop hit by Green, which sure seemed like it was in the air a long time at a big moment in the game. 11-for-his-last-28 with three walks and two doubles (393/452/464 over 32 plate appearances). 361/425/417 in May after hitting 200/234/222 in April.

Michael Young 2-for-4 with a double. 5-for-his-last-19.

Utley 0-for-2 with a walk and was hit by a pitch. 2-for-his-last-16.

Brown 2-for-4 with his eighth home run. Hit the ball well in the sixth with two men on, but Coghlan tracked it down. He hasn’t drawn a walk in 70 plate appearances in May.

Delmon Young was 0-for-4 and struck out twice. 0-for-his-last-11 and hitting .192 for the season in 61 plate appearances.

Galvis 0-for-3 with a walk and an error. 6-for-his-last-15 with a home run.

Kratz 1-for-3. He’s 5-for-18 with a home run in May.

Cloyd (0-0, 2.84) faces righty Jose Fernandez (2-2, 3.48) tonight. Cloyd was good in his only start of the year for the Phils, pitching into the seventh against the Diamondbacks on May 10 and allowing a pair for runs on two hits and three walks. Fernandez has already faced the Phillies twice this season, allowing three hits and three walks over 13 scoreless innings in his two starts combined.

Philliesflow won’t be updated again until next week.

Not saying it’s a big deal, I’m just saying if the Braves win the series somebody better make sure Chicken Little is ready for his close-up

The Phillies have played fewer games than the Braves this more and won more (55-33 for the Phils and 53-36 for the Braves). They are scoring more runs per game (4.16 to 4.02) and allowing fewer (3.27 to 3.30). So what could be the problem?

Maybe nothing. But there’s this — here are the standings in the NL East since the end of April:

ATL 40 21 .656 - 248 203
PHI 37 25 .597 3 1/2 246 200
NYM 34 27 .557 6 273 248
WSN 33 30 .524 8 249 241
FLA 24 39 .381 17 226 295

The Phils ended April at 18-8 while the Braves were 13-15. Atlanta has been 3 1/2 games better since. Since April they have outscored the Phils, plating about 4.07 runs per game while the Phils scored about 3.97. The Phillies have still been better at preventing runs, allowing around 3.23 runs per game while the Braves have allowed about 3.33 runs per game. While Atlanta has won 3 1/2 more games than the Phils, the Phils run differential has actually been a tiny bit better since the end of April. The Phillies are at +.742 per game while Atlanta is at +.738.

Finally, I don’t think there are a lot of people who think the Mets are going to win the NL East this season, but it’s worth nothing they’re seven games over .500 in this time period and have scored way more runs than either the Phils or Braves. So let’s hope they don’t get any pitching.

Lidge had his second straight good outing in relief at Single-A Lakewood last night. He’s now allowed two hits and struck out two in two scoreless innings.

Victorino was voted into the All-Star game, but may not play.

I’m still not doing the Tomahawk Chop, though, I don’t care what anyone says

The Phils are going to the post-season and will have home field advantage throughout. Beyond that, we know that the Reds have won their division and are in while the Braves, Giants and Padres battle for the two remaining NL spots. As of this morning the Giants lead the Padres by two games in the West and the Braves are a game and a half ahead of San Diego for the Wild Card.

So who should we be rooting for to come out on top?

Here’s how many runs per game the five teams have scored this season compared to the average for the league (not including last night):

Team R/G NL AVG R/G  
CIN 4.90 4.36 1.124
PHI 4.71 4.36 1.080
ATL 4.57 4.36 1.048
SF 4.34 4.36 0.995
SD 4.17 4.36 0.956

So, for example, the Reds have scored 4.90 runs per game this season. The average for NL teams is 4.36 runs per game. 4.90 over 4.36 is 1.124, which also means that the Reds have scored about 112.4% of the runs per game that the average NL team has scored this season.

Of the five teams, the Reds, Phils and Braves have all been better than average at scoring runs. The Giants and Padres have been worse than the average NL teams at scoring runs.

The average NL team has allowed 4.38 runs per game. Here’s how the numbers at preventing runs compare for the five teams (again, does not include last night):

SD 3.63 4.38 0.829
SF 3.65 4.38 0.833
ATL 3.83 4.38 0.874
PHI 3.97 4.38 0.906
CIN 4.29 4.38 0.979

The chart is turned upside down for these numbers. The Padres have been the best of the five teams at preventing runs for the season, allowing about 82.9% of the runs per game that the average team in the NL has allowed.

If you combine the rates at which they have scored and prevented runs compared to the rest of the league, here’s how the results look:

Team Scoring
PHI 0.080 0.094 0.1739
ATL 0.048 0.126 0.1737
SF -0.005 0.167 0.1621
CIN 0.124 0.021 0.1444
SD -0.044 0.171 0.1277

Two big things I think you can take from that. The first is how slim the margin is between the Braves and the Phils at the top of the list. The second is that the Padres are just a lot worse than the other four teams on the list. One of the teams you should be rooting for to get into the playoffs is the Padres.

Who’s the other, though? From the numbers above it sure looks like we should all be Giants fans. But surely the injury-ravaged Braves aren’t the same team now that they’ve lost Chipper and Medlen and Prado, right?

Here’s what the five teams have done in September:

Team Record RS/G RA/G
PHI 20-6 5.19 3.58
ATL 12-14 3.35 3.81
SF 16-8 3.75 1.85
CIN 11-14 4.20 4.04
SD 11-15 3.00 4.19
Total for
70-57 3.898 3.543

A couple of things you should take from that. The first is that the Phillies are playing very well, especially offensively. The Reds may have been better than the Phils at scoring runs overall for the season, but since the start of September the Phillies have scored almost a run per game more than Cincinnati has scored.

The other thing that you don’t want to miss is that the Giants are doing an amazing job at preventing runs. They’ve allowed 48 runs in their past 24 games and the Rockies beat them 10-9 on Saturday. So in the other 23 games they have allowed 38 runs, or 1.65 runs per game.

Here’s how the teams stack up if you compare the number of runs each team has scored and allowed this month to the other teams in the group (not the whole league) and then combine the numbers:

Team Scored Allowed Total
SF -0.04 0.48 0.44
PHI 0.33 -0.01 0.32
CIN 0.08 -0.14 -0.06
ATL -0.14 -0.08 -0.22
SD -0.23 -0.18 -0.41

The Giants pitching has been more dominant than the Phillies hitting, so San Francisco comes out on top on that list. I think there are two important things to come to terms with about the way the Giants have been pitching of late. The first is that if San Francisco allows 1.85 runs per game the rest of the way they’re going to win the World Series. There won’t be much for anyone else to do but watch. The second, though, is that that isn’t going to happen. In August, for example, the Giants allowed about 4.93 runs per game.

It does leave us with the question of who we’d like to see joining the Phils, Reds and Padres in the playoffs. If the Braves were at full strength I think it’s pretty much a no-brainer that you would prefer them to be watching the post-season. The Braves aren’t at full strength, though, and they haven’t been for a long time. The combination of the injuries to Atlanta and the remarkable job San Francisco has done preventing runs of late makes it very close.

On the plus side, it doesn’t matter a whole lot who you’re hoping for — the playoff teams from the NL look likely to be the Phils, Reds, Braves and Giants.

The Nats beat the Phils 2-1 last night. Oswalt pitched well, allowing an unearned run over five innings. Nyjer Morgan walked in the bottom of the first, stole second, took third with the help of a Rollins error and scored on an Adam Dunn ground out to put Washington up 1-0. Ibanez tied the game at 1-1 with a homer off of Jason Marquis in the fourth. Dunn hit a long walkoff home run off of Contreras with nobody out in the bottom of the ninth.

Rollins returned to the starting lineup and went 1-for-3 with a solid single out of the leadoff spot. He also made a throwing error in the first. Bastardo and Baez both pitched a scoreless inning in relief, with Bastardo striking out all three men he faced in the bottom of the eighth in a tie game.

Or maybe they’ll just talk about Scott Rolen’s secondary average for four days and decide to do nothing

If the Phils spent the first day of the Winter Meetings dealing for a corner outfielder, a third baseman and a couple of pitchers they’re apparently keeping it on the down-low. Fingers crossed.

This article suggests that the Dodgers are more interested in trying sign Andruw Jones to a shorter contract than giving a longer deal to Rowand. Opinions apparently vary about the chances of Rowand returning to the Phils. I think he is going to the White Sox, but I would say the chances of him coming back to the Phils are low but not zero. You have to believe that they would increase at least a little if the Phils don’t add another corner outfielder or acquire help at third.

This article suggests that the Phils have clear interest in Kris Benson and some interest in Bartolo Colon and Jason Jennings and not as much in Carlos Silva or Kyle Lohse. Gillick also sounds like he’s feeling a little less than warm and fuzzy about Randy Wolf, calling Wolf’s signing with the Padres a blessing in disguise.

While we’re on the subject, Scott Rolen’s secondary average last year was .232. I would guess the Phillies are about as likely to bring him back as they are Steve Jeltz.

And speaking of the man, if we could get Jeltz to weigh in it sounds like we could call it just about unanimous that the Phillies aren’t interested in Melvin Mora.

This article talks about what the Braves might be trying to do at the Winter Meetings. The Braves, I fear, are looking likely to continue their upswing.

The Nationals traded for Elijah Dukes. It’s gonna be quite a clubhouse.

This article says that the White Sox are still interested in Rowand and may be looking to trade Joe Crede.

Lefty Brian Anderson is attempting a comeback after missing the last two seasons. The Rockies may be interested. Anderson had elbow surgery in 2005 and 2006. In 2004 with the Royals he gave up 33 home runs in 166 innings while throwing to 5.64 ERA, so he’s not really screaming ideally suited to finish out his days at Citizens Bank Park.

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