Tag: Mike Adams

The bullpen’s creepy and they’re kooky, mysterious and spooky, all together ooky

A lot went well for the Phillies last night, Halladay was outstanding for the third time in a row and Utley and Howard both homered against a lefty, but the bullpen faltered and the Phils fell 5-3 to the Pirates.

The Phillies started the seventh with a 3-1 lead. Bastardo allowed a solo homer in the seventh that cut the lead to one. Adams started the eighth and allowed all four of the men he faced to reach base, which led to two more Pirate runs. Horst allowed a run in the ninth as Pittsburgh got some help from a slightly flukey two-out triple.

Pittsburgh starter lefty Wandy Rodriguez came into the game with an 0.56 ERA, having not allowed a home run in his three starts this season. Utley and Howard have both been struggling terribly against lefties, but both hit solo home runs off of Rodriguez to help the Phils to their early lead. It wasn’t enough, though, as the Phils scored three runs or less for the eleventh time in 13 games.

The Phillies are 9-13 on the year after losing 5-3 to the Pittsburgh Pirates last night. The Pirates lead the series two games to one with game four this afternoon.

Halladay got the start for the Phillies and went six innings, allowing a run on one hit and two walks. The hit was a single and he struck out eight.

He has a 1.71 ERA and an 0.62 ratio over his last three starts. Thanks to two terrible starts to start the year, he has a 5.08 ERA for the season.

Starling Marte was the first batter of the game in the top of the first and walked. He stole second before Travis Snider struck out looking for the first out. Andrew McCutchen struck out looking for the second. Marte stole third with Garrett Jones at the plate, but Halladay got Jones looking to leave Marte stranded.

Up 1-0, Halladay set the Pirates down in order in the second.

He struck out two in a 1-2-3 third.

Jones walked with two outs in the fourth and Halladay hit the next batter Walker. Alvarez was next and singled softly into center, scoring Jones to tie the game at 1-1. Halladay struck Martin out looking to leave the runners at first and second.

Up 2-1, Halladay set the Pirates down in order in the fifth and again in the sixth.

Bastardo started the seventh with a 3-1 lead and Alvarez homered to right with one out. 3-2. Martin went down on a ground out for the second out before righty Gaby Sanchez hit for the shortstop John McDonald. Sanchez grounded to Howard to end the frame.

Alvarez came in to the series hitting 125/222/232 for the year. He’s 4-for-8 with two home runs in the set so far.

First home run, or earned run of any kind, that Bastardo has allowed this season in 8 1/3 innings over nine appearances.

Adams started the eighth. Jose Tabata hit for the pitcher Vin Mazzaro and drew a walk to start the inning. Marte moved him up to second with a single. Snider was next and he showed bunt, then swung away and singled to right, scoring Tabata to tie the game at 3-3 with men on first and third. McCutchen walked to load the bases and Horst came in to pitch to the lefty Jones. Righty Brandon Inge hit for Jones and singled to left. Everyone moved up a base and Marte scored to make it 4-3. Walker was next with the bases still loaded and nobody out. He hit a ball to first. Howard came home and Quintero went to first in time to complete the double-play. Alvarez grounded to Utley to leave runners at second and third.

Adams faced four hitters in the game without getting an out. Two singles and two walks. 4.00 ERA and a 1.44 ratio over nine innings in 11 appearances.

Horst returned for the ninth. Barmes singled to left with one and moved up to second on a ground out by Tabata. Marte was next and blooped a ball down the first base line, which went off of Utley’s glove in right for a triple. Barmes scored and it was 5-3. Righty Michael McKenry hit for the pitcher Mark Melancon and flew to left to leave Marte at third.

It would have been a nice play, but Utley usually catches the ball hit by Marte that went for a triple. He had made a long run, but was in position to make an over-the-shoulder basket catch and didn’t come up with the ball. Cost the Phillies a run.

Horst allows a single to the first man he faces in the eighth with the run charged to Adams, but then does a great job to get out of that frame without further damage before allowing a run in the ninth with the help of Marte’s unlikely triple.

He drops his ERA to 6.52 by allowing a run over two innings. Opponents are hitting .342 against him in the early going.

Overall the pen goes three innings, allowing four earned runs on six hits and two walks. Horst threw 27 pitches in the game, Adams 21 and Bastardo 16.

The Phillie lineup against lefty Wandy Rodriguez went (1) Rollins (2) Utley (3) Young (4) Howard (5) Mayberry (6) Brown (7) Revere (8) Quintero. Utley moves up to second in the order with Young third against the lefty. Quintero catches Halladay again.

Rollins started the bottom of the first with a single, but was thrown out by McCutchen as he went for two. It cost the Phils a run, cause Utley was next and he hit a 1-0 pitch out to right, putting the Phils on top 1-0. Young and Howard went down behind Utley.

Brown singled to center with one out in the second. Revere was next and grounded to short with Brown moving up to second and two down. Quintero grounded to first to leave Brown stranded.

Halladay and Rollins both struck out as the Phils went in order in the third.

It was 1-1 when the Phillies hit in the fourth. Young struck out swinging for the first out, but Howard was next and he pounded a hanging 0-2 breaking ball way out to right for a home run, putting the Phils back up at 2-1. Mayberry followed with a walk and moved up to second when Brown hit a routine grounder to Walker at second that was booted for an error. Revere popped to short for the second out and Quintero was walked intentionally to pitch to Halladay with the bases loaded. Halladay struck out swinging to leave them loaded.

I wouldn’t walk Quintero intentionally very often. Howard hit the ball really far. Great to see him homer off the lefty, but that was a really bad pitch.

Rollins doubled down the third base line to start the fifth and Utley followed with a bunt single that put runners on first and third. Young was next and grounded to third. Alvarez fielded and went to second for the first out of the inning. When the throw went to second, Rollins broke for home. Walker took the throw at second and threw home. The ball beat Rollins by a wide margin and he was tagged out for the second out of the frame. Howard lined to first to leave Young at first.

Miserable base-running by Rollins as the Phils fail to score after putting runners on first and third with nobody out.

Revere singled with two outs in the sixth and moved up to third when Quintero followed with a single. With the lefty Rodriguez still on the mound for Pittsburgh, Frandsen hit for Halladay and singled to center, scoring Revere to put the Phils up 3-1 with men on first and second. Righty Vin Mazzaro took over for Rodriguez and got Rollins to ground to second to leave the runners stranded.

Halladay had thrown 95 pitches in the game.

The lead was cut to 3-2 when Mazzaro set the Phillies down in order in the seventh.

Righty Mark Melancon started the eighth with the Pirates leading 4-3. Brown singled with one out, but Revere hit into a double-play behind him.

Righty Jason Grilli started the ninth with Pittsburgh up 5-3. Nix hit for Quintero and flew to right for the first out. Carrera hit for Horst and was hit by a pitch, but Rollins fouled out behind him and Utley struck out swinging to end the game.

Carrera is 1-for-8 with the Phils, but with a .364 on-base percentage thanks to a walk and two hit by pitches.

Rollins was 2-for-5 with a double. He’s 7-for-his-last-17. He hasn’t drawn a walk in his last 42 plate appearances.

Utley 2-for-5 with a long home run off of a lefty. 211/286/464 against lefties for the season.

Young 0-for-4. He actually hit into yet another double-play, although it doesn’t count as an official GDP due to the unusual nature of the play and Rollins’s base-running decision. 4-for-his-last-l7 with four singles.

Howard 1-for-4 with a long home run against a lefty on an 0-2 pitch. 142/182/381 against lefties.

Mayberry 0-for-3 with a walk. 235/297/382 over his last 37 plate appearances.

Brown 2-for-4 with a pair of singles. He came into the game 2-for-his-last-21.

Revere 1-for-4 to up his average to .207. He has one extra-base hit in 93 plate appearances and has walked in about 4.3% of his plate appearances.

Quintero 1-for-2 with a walk. 3-for-his-last-5 with a double and a walk has his line for the year up to 313/353/438.

Lee (2-1, 2.83) faces righty James McDonald (2-2, 4.12) this afternoon. Lee has had one bad start in four tries this year, which came in his most recent outing as he allowed five runs in five frames against the Cards. He’s allowed just 22 hits and four walks over 28 2/3 innings while striking out 23. McDonald has walked 12 over 19 2/3 innings in his four starts. Opponents are hitting just .216 against him, but on-basing .341. Cause he walks everyone, you see.


The doctor is not exactly out, but he’s not looking real in, either

Roy Halladay’s final spring start was neither a disaster or a resounding success. For those of us looking for signs of the old Halladay, though, it looked a little closer to a disaster. Halladay allowed two runs over 4 1/3 innings, but surrendered eight hits, walked two and got three outs on the bases as the Phils topped Toronto 7-2.

Five of the seven runs that the Phillies scored came on home runs. Utley hit a two-run shot in the sixth and Nix hit a three-run homer in the eighth.

Utley was 1-for-3 on the day with his fifth homer. Nix 1-for-4 with his second. 273/368/545 for Utley and 200/250/333 for Nix.

Revere had two more hits. 2-for-4 with his tenth stolen base. 337/382/398.

Rollins 0-for-3 to drop his average to .258. 258/395/355. Three extra-base hits, all doubles, in 31 at-bats has his isolated power under .100.

Brown 1-for-2. 376/430/671.

Kratz 1-for-3 to up his line to 273/293/550.

Galvis started at third and went 0-for-4, dropping his line to 269/288/526.

Inciarte 0-for-1 and hitting 276/364/310. Orr 0-for-2 and at 250/250/500.

Halladay got the start for the Phillies and went 4 1/3 innings, allowing two runs on eight hits and two walks. He retired the first four men he faced before Adam Lind doubled to left with one out in the second. Halladay walked the next two hitters on eight pitches, but struck Maicer Izturis and Emilio Bonifacio out back-to-back to leave them loaded. He allowed two runs in the third on four more hits, then gave up one single in a scoreless fourth. Two of the three batters he faced in the fifth singled before righty Hector Neris took over for the Phils.

Three of the 13 outs that Halladay got came on the bases. Two caught stealings and another runner was retired on a single.

6.06 ERA and a 1.84 ratio for Halladay. Opponents hit .323 against him. He walked nine in 16 1/3 innings, which is about 4.96 per nine and higher than his career walk rate of 1.86. Three home runs in 16 1/3 innings is about 1.65, which is also higher than his career rate of 0.75. Not a lot went well.

Through three starts, in the third of which he threw behind Washington’s Tyler Moore, Halladay had a 2.16 ERA and an 0.96 ratio and had pitched 8 1/3 innings. Since then he’s made three starts in which he’s thrown eight innings with a 10.12 ERA and 2.87 ratio.

Neris got the last two outs in the fifth and Cesar Jimenez struck out the side in the sixth.

Aumont threw a 1-2-3 seventh. 2.45 ERA and an 0.82 ratio in 7 1/3 innings. Opponents are hitting .120 against him without a home run.

Adams threw a 1-2-3 eighth. 1.13 ERA and an 0.63 ratio in eight innings. Opponents are hitting .143 against him with one walk and no home runs.

Papelbon set the Blue Jays down in order in the ninth. He’s been very good since a rocky start. Numbers are still ugly, though. 8.64 ERA with a 1.32 ratio.

The Phils play the Blue Jays tonight in Philadelphia with Lee expected to pitch. It’s the Blue Jays again on Saturday in another tuneup, then off on Sunday and the Braves for real in Atlanta Monday night.

This article from the Phillies web site has a projected Opening Day lineup against righty Tim Hudson. It has Brown in right hitting sixth and Nix in left hitting seventh. Three lefties two through four in Revere, Utley and Howard. I would guess we will not regularly see Revere, Utley and Howard hitting all in a row often during the regular season. If Domonic Brown continues to OPS 1.101 during the regular season, you won’t see him hitting sixth for very long.

This suggests the Phillies would rather play Brown in left field than right. That seems like a very good idea to me.

This suggests that when Delmon Young arrives, hopefully in early May, Young will play right with Brown in left. I’m going to be surprised if we see Young play much in right this year. If he does, I’m going to be even more surprised if he’s not terrible there.


Johnny B not-so-goode

The Blue Jays demolished John Lannan yesterday, scoring 12 runs charged to Lannan in his four innings on their way to a 13-4 win.

Down 13-0, the Phillies got on the board with four runs in the top of the ninth.

They had one extra-base hit in the game, a double by Frandsen in the ninth inning. Frandsen was 2-for-4 on the day and was also the only Phillie with more than one hit. Just one walk in 59 plate appearances and a 286/310/518 line. Frandsen walked in just 4.3% of his 210 plate appearances with the Phillies in 2012. If you’re not going to walk or play good defense, slugging .518 is the way to go.

Revere was 1-for-2 with a walk and a stolen base. 329/372/397 for the spring. Five walks in 79 plate appearances is 6.3%, which is a little better than his career mark of 5.4%.

Rollins 1-for-3. 292/452/417 in 24 at-bats. There’s a good chance he doesn’t on-base .452 for the regular season, but if he does I’m picking the Phillies to win the World Series.

Utley 0-for-4 and struck out once. Mayberry 0-for-4 and struck out twice. Mayberry’s line drops to an ugly 194/250/269.

Brown 0-for-3 and struck out three times. 354/414/646.

Kratz was 1-for-4 with a two-run single in the ninth-inning rally. 270/289/568 with six extra-base hits and 11 RBI in 38 plate appearances.

Lannan got the start for the Phillies and went four innings, allowing 12 runs on 14 hits and a walk. After a 1-2-3 first, Lannan allowed eight runs in a bottom of the second that included a three-run homer for JP Arencibia and a two-run triple by Jose Reyes. Toronto scored their ninth run in the third on three singles. Arencibia hit another homer off of Lannan in the fourth, this time a two-run shot, as Toronto scored three more times.

Lannan started the day with a 3.21 ERA and ended it with an 8.50 ERA. Opponents have hit .338 against him over 18 innings, cause 14 is a lot of hits to give up in four innings. He had pitched well prior before yesterday’s disaster.

Miner pitched the fifth. He allowed a leadoff homer to Melky Cabrera before getting the next three. One run in one inning keeps Miner’s ERA at nine after nine official appearances. Opponents have hit .364 against him.

Mike Adams allowed a leadoff walk to start the sixth, but struck out the next three hitters he faced. 1.29 ERA and an 0.71 ratio for Adams. He’s allowed four hits and a walk over seven innings.

Aumont threw a 1-2-3 seventh and Kyle Simon a 1-2-3 eighth. Aumont has allowed just three hits and three walks in 6 1/3 innings over six appearances. He seems like a lock to start the year with the Phils. Simon has allowed two runs in four innings over six appearances.

The Phillies play the Rays this afternoon.

This article suggests that Horst and Valdes are the front-runners for the two bullpen jobs with Aumont ahead of Stutes for the final spot. If the Phillies carry Stutes to start the season and do not carry Aumont I will be stunned.

Kendrick pitched in a minor league game on Monday and allowed five runs in six innings. He gave up three home runs in the game.

This article talks about who will lead off for the Phillies in 2013. I am going to be very surprised if Ben Revere leads off against left-handed pitchers.

Update: The Phillies released Aaron Cook.


The big please

Still on Ryan Howard and especially Ryan Howard against lefties. While we’re asking for stuff, I guess it would be nice if he could run the bases and was better defensively. But let’s stick with hitting lefties for now.

Howard has been so bad against lefties over the last five years that many have given up hope he’ll ever hit them again. It’s not the case, though, that Howard was never good against lefties. In four of the last five years he’s been terrible, but he had solid results against them in 2010 and was also good against lefties in 2006 and 2007.

So what would he need to do against left-handed pitching to get back on track in 2013?

Here are some of his marks against left-handed pitching for his career in all of the years in which he got at least 100 plate appearances against lefties, including his wOBA and percent of plate appearances in which he delivered singles, walks, doubles or triples and home runs:

Year wOBA vs L 1B% BB% 2B or 3B% HR%
2012 .261 8.5 4.7 1.9 5.7
2011 .283 13.0 6.5 5.9 1.6
2010 .359 14.4 7.9 3.7 5.6
2009 .290 10.9 9.9 5.6 2.4
2008 .319 11.3 8.7 3.4 5.3
2007 .352 9.3 13.0 3.3 6.5
2006 .386 14.7 9.8 2.7 7.1
Career .320 11.7 8.8 3.8 4.7

First the hits. Ryan Howard is a .227 career hitter against left-handed pitching. He’s had three years where he’s been good against lefties — ’06, ’07 and ’10. In 2010, he hit .264 against lefties with a BABIP of .320. 2006 was even more dramatic — he hit .279 against left-handed pitching with the help of a BABIP of .368.

2007 was the year in which he was good against lefties without the help of a monster BABIP. He hit just .225 against southpaws that year with a BABIP of .282. A quick look at the table above, though, will show that one of the things he did in 2007 against lefties that was unusual was draw walks at a very high rate. Howard walked in about 13% of his plate appearances against lefties in ’07, well above his 8.8% career average and almost three times his walk rate against lefties in 2012.

In 2006 and 2007 he was very solid against lefties, but he also hit 32 home runs against them in 471 plate appearances. That’s about 6.8% for those years combined, which is well above his career mark and seems highly unlikely to repeat given that he’s homered in about 3.6% of his plate appearances against lefties over the past four years.

Howard’s home run rate against lefties likely isn’t going back up there, but I don’t think that’s his biggest problem. His rate of doubles and triples was way down in 2012 as well, but I would not be at all surprised to see him return to his career rates of doubles and triples in 2013.

I think what we should be worried about is the singles and the walks. Howard got 106 plate appearances against lefties in 2012 and singled nine times, which is about 8.5% of his plate appearances. Coming into 2012, he had singled in about 13.7% of his chances against lefties over the past two seasons. He hit a rather pitiful .173 against lefties in 2012 — there’s close to no way he can draw enough walks or hit for enough power to be an effective hitter against lefties if he’s going to hit .173 against them.

There’s also the walks. Five walks in 106 plate appearances against lefties gives him a 4.7% walk rate against left-handed pitching. That’s a little better than half of his career walk rate of 8.8% against left-handed pitching. Like with the singles, he’s going to have an extraordinarily difficult time having success against left-handed pitching with a walk rate that low. Again, in 2012, his walk rate against lefties dropped for the third straight year.

Rich Dubee suggests that Mike Adams might not pitch as much in spring training games as other players on the team in this article.

Manuel hopes Utley and Howard will both play 140 games or more this season and Domonic Brown points out his still has an option remaining here.


The pitching news

Busy weekend for the Phillies that saw them agree to deals with two pitchers — lefty John Lannan appears to be set to serve as the fifth starter and righty Mike Adams looks likely to set up Papelbon.

This article says that the deal with Adams is for two years, $12 million and the deal with Lannan is one year, $2.5 million.

Lannan has made 19 starts against the Phillies over his career, throwing to an ugly 5.53 ERA with a 1.74 ratio. Opponents have hit 329/404/546 against him in Citizens Bank Park. So that could be better. In 94 1/3 innings against the Phillies in all stadiums he’s hit 11 batters. In 689 1/3 innings against all other teams, he’s hit 19 batters. In his major league debut on July 26, 2007, Lannan was ejected in the fifth inning after hitting Utley and Howard back-to-back. The ball that hit Utley broke his hand.

Here’s my guess on how the pitcher staff for 2013 looks at this point as well as the top candidates to fill the last two slots:

Role Pitcher Others
1 SP Halladay (R) Stutes (R)
2 SP Lee (L) Schwimer (R)
3 SP Hamels (L) De Fratus (R)
4 SP Kendrick (R) Cloyd (R)
5 SP Lannan (L) Rosenberg (R)
6 RP Papelbon (R) Valdes (L)
7 RP Adams (R) Savery (L)
8 RP Bastardo (L) Diekman (L)
9 RP Horst (L)
10 RP Aumont (R)
11 RP
12 RP

On Friday, the Phillies claimed 23-year-old left-handed reliever Mauricio Robles off of waivers from Seattle. Robles was primarily a starter in Seattle minor league system through 2011. In 2012 he made 43 appearances, 37 of which were in relief, and threw to a 5.78 ERA with 1.69 ratio between Double-A and Triple-A. He walked 63 in 71 2/3 innings. That’s not a joke, it’s actually a stat.

This suggests that the Phillies and Mariners are among the teams interested in Cody Ross and that Ross may be looking for a three-year, $25 million contract.

This suggests that the Phillies may have one payroll slot left, which would allow them to pay a new outfielder about $7 million.


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