Tag: michael cuddyer

Playoffs??! You’re talking about playoffs?

Yup. Still. They’re kinda tough to forget.

You may recall that the Phils were pretty good during the regular season and not so good in the playoffs over the past two years. Here’s what the post-season teams did in the playoffs in terms of scoring and preventing runs and how those numbers compared to what the teams did during the regular season. Here are the numbers for the playoff teams in the NL for 2011:

G RS RA S/G A/G Reg Season
S/G
Reg Season
A/G
STL total 18 100 77 5.56 4.28 4.70 4.27
MIL 11 49 68 4.54 6.18 4.45 3.94
PHI 5 21 19 4.20 3.80 4.40 3.27
ARI 5 25 23 5.00 4.60 4.51 4.09
All NL teams 39 195 187 5.00 4.79 4.13 4.16
STL vs NL only 11 62 47 5.64 4.27 4.70 4.27

Overall, the NL teams scored 5.00 runs per game in the post-season, which is about 121% of the runs NL teams scored during the regular season. Of course, a lot of the NL teams that can’t hit didn’t even make the playoffs in 2011. The Cards, Brewers, Snakes and Phils combined to score 2,927 runs in 648 regular season games, which is about 4.52 runs per game (it’s about 4.57 runs per game if you weight it to account for the number of games played by each of the four teams, since the Cards had the best offense in the league and played the most playoff games).

Every NL team that made the post-season in 2011 except the Phils scored more runs per game in their post-season games than they had in their regular season games. The Cards scored about 118% of their regular season runs per game, the Diamondbacks about 111% and the Brewers about 102%. The Phillies scored 4.20 runs per game, which was about 95% of the 4.40 they averaged during the regular season.

Each of the four NL playoff teams also allowed more runs per game in the post-season than the regular season. The Cardinals came the closest to their regular season numbers, allowing just 4.28 runs per game, which is just a tick over the 4.27 they averaged for the regular season. Again, they were pitching against better teams than they faced during the regular season. Based on the regular season numbers against all NL teams, the Cards would have allowed about 48.7 runs in the 11 games they played against NL playoff teams (five against the Phils and six against the Brewers) — they actually allowed 47.

The Phillies allowed about 116% of the runs per game they allowed during the regular season in the ’11 post-season, which is the second-highest leap of the four NL playoff teams after the Brewers. Milwaukee has some ugly numbers thanks to allowing 43 runs to the Cardinals in the six-game NLCS. Not to be forgotten, of course, is that the Phils were facing the best-hitting team in the NL in the ’11 post-season. St Louis played the Phillies nine times during the regular season, going 6-3 and scoring 34 runs. That’s 3.77 runs per game, very similar to what they scored against the Phils during the post-season.

And here are the numbers for the NL teams in 2010:

G RS RA S/G A/G Reg Season
S/G
Reg Season
A/G
SF total 15 59 41 3.93 2.73 4.30 3.60
PHI 9 33 23 3.67 2.56 4.77 3.95
ATL 4 9 11 2.25 2.75 4.56 3.88
CIN 3 4 13 1.33 4.33 4.88 4.23
All NL teams 31 105 88 3.39 2.84 4.33 4.35
SF vs NL only
10 30 29 3.00 2.90 4.30 3.60

In 2010, all four of the NL teams that played in the post-season scored fewer runs per game than they scored during the regular season. That’s a flip from 2011, when three of the four teams (everyone but the Phillies) scored more. In 2010, the Braves and Reds each scored less than half of the runs per game in the post-season that they had scored during the regular season. The Giants were a little off their regular season pace, scoring 91.4% of their regular season runs per game overall but only about 69.8% before they got to the World Series. In the World Series, they plated 29 runs in just five games or 5.8 runs per game — way more than the 4.30 runs per game they scored during the 2010 regular season.

The Phils, meanwhile, didn’t have the huge dropoff in runs scored per game that the Braves and Reds did, but still scored significantly fewer runs per game in the post-season than they had during the regular season. They scored 3.67 runs per game in their nine playoff games in 2010, about 77% of the runs per game they scored during the regular season.

Three of the four teams allowed fewer runs per game in the post-season than they had during the regular season. The only team that didn’t was the Reds, who were outscored 13-4 by the Phils as the Phils swept them in three games in the opening round.

Of the four NL teams in the post-season in 2010, the Phillies were the team whose runs allowed per game was the lowest compared to the runs they allowed during the regular season. The Reds allowed more runs per game than they had during the regular season, the Phils allowed about 64.8%, the Braves about 70.9% and the Giants about 75.8%. In their games against the NL teams, the Giants allowed about 80.6% of the runs per game they had allowed during the regular season. A lot of that success for the Phils in 2010 relative to the rest of that group has to do with what happened in their opening series with the Reds — as you may remember, the Phils got shutouts from Halladay and Hamels in games one and three of the set.

The Phillies signed right-handed reliever Jonathan Papelbon to a four-year deal worth just over $50 million. We’ll have to wait see how that works out for the Phils in 2012, but between Papelbon and Thome the Phils are in good shape if the powers-that-be decide to replay 2006 instead.

Vance Worley finished third in NL Rookie of the Year voting behind Freddie Freeman and winner Craig Kimbrel. Kimbrel got all 32 of the first place votes.

In this article, Charlie Manuel includes third base when listing the positions that free agent Michael Cuddyer can play. I’m not convinced. When the Phillies don’t get Cuddyer, how disappointed we should all be will depend on whether or not he can play third. I’m guessing he can’t.

This article suggests that Cuddyer is not the high priority in Philadelphia being portrayed by the media and is more of a “middle priority” for the Phils.


Do-over?

Remember this? After 79 games, the 2011 Phillies were preventing runs at a fantastic rate and looked, at least compared to the rest of the National League, like they would wind up better overall than the 2008, 2009 or 2010 teams.

And despite the disappointment of the post-season, I think they were. The table below shows the runs scored and allowed by the Phils since 2008 compared to the rest of the league as well as the same numbers for the team that actually won the World Series that year (in 2008 the Phillies were the World Series winner, so there’s only one entry for that season):

TM W R/G Lg Rank Lg Avg RA/G Lg Rank Lg Avg Ttl
’11 PHI 102 4.40 7 4.13 1.07 3.27 1 4.16 0.79 .28
’11 STL 90 4.70 1 4.13 1.14 4.27 9 4.16 1.03 .11
’10 PHI 97 4.77 2 4.33 1.10 3.95 4 4.35 0.91 .19
’10 SF 92 4.30 9 4.33 0.99 3.60 2 4.35 0.83 .16
’09 PHI 93 5.06 1 4.46 1.14 4.38 6 4.49 0.98 .16
’09 NYY 103 5.65 1 4.82 1.17 4.65 7 4.75 0.98 .19
’08 PHI 92 4.93 3 4.54 1.09 4.20 3 4.63 0.91 .18

So, for example, the ’11 Phils scored 4.40 runs per game, which was seventh in the league and about 1.07 times (or 107% of) the NL average of 4.13 runs per game. They allowed a league-best 3.27 runs per game, which was about 0.79 times the NL average. If you add .07 (.07 better for at scoring runs than the league average) and .21 (.21 better at preventing runs) you get the .28 that appears in the right-most column. In the same year, the St Louis team that won the World Series was much better during the regular season at scoring runs, but much worse at preventing them.

The table above suggests . . .

  • The 2011 Phillies were better during the regular season than the Phillies teams of 2008, 2009 or 2010.
  • The 2011 Phillies excelled at preventing runs, but were near league average at scoring runs. From 2008 to 2010, the Phils were no worse than third in the NL in runs scored per game before dropping to seventh in 2011.
  • In each of the last four seasons, the Phils have been in the top half of the NL in both scoring and preventing runs.
  • In each of the last two seasons, the Phils have been ousted from the post-season by a team that excelled at either scoring or preventing runs, but was also in the bottom half of the league in allowing or scoring based on runs per game. The Cards were ninth-best in the NL in runs allowed per game in 2011 and the Giants were ninth-best in the NL in runs scored per game in 2010.
  • After getting a little worse in 2009 after winning the World Series in 2008, the Phillies have gotten better in 2010 and 2011.
  • In 2010 and 2011, the Phillies were better during the regular season than the NL team that 1) knocked them out of the playoffs and 2) won the World Series.
  • The ’09 Yankees were better than the ’09 Phillies — or at least were better relative to the rest of the AL than the Phils were relative to the rest of the NL.

If you had to pick one thing to focus on from that table, I think it’s how few runs the Phils allowed in 2011 compared to the rest of the NL. That carried them to much better numbers overall, despite the fact that the offense got worse. How much worse, though? Look at the offensive numbers for 2008 and 2010. Clearly the offense was better in those seasons — third in the NL in runs scored per game in 2008 and second in 2010. The 2011 Phils were seventh, but the runs they scored per game compared to the average for the league didn’t drop off by a huge amount. In 2011, they scored about 107% of the runs per game as the average NL team. In 2008 they scored 109% and in 2010 they scored 110%.

In 2011, there was a huge dropoff between the team that scored the seventh-most runs (the Phils) and the team that scored the eighth-most (the Cubs). The Phils scored 713 for the year and the Cubs scored 654 — the Phils, with the seventh-most runs in the league, were actually closer in runs scored to the Cardinals (who led the NL in runs scored) than they were to the Cubs, who were eighth in the league in scoring. The Phils scored 59 runs more than the Cubs and 49 less than the Cards.

The Phillies signed Jim Thome to a one-year deal worth $1.25 million. That is a great signing.

Getting Michael Cuddyer would be rather fantastic as well.


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