Tag: matt holliday

One and just getting started

Roy Halladay faces Kyle Lohse tomorrow at 5:07 in game one of the NLDS.

Halladay went 19-6 with a 2.35 ERA and a 1.04 ratio this season, striking out 220 in 233 innings. He was second in the NL in ERA, second in innings pitched, first in WAR for pitchers and fourth in ratio. For the third straight season, he led his league in fewest walks per nine innings pitched. It wasn’t real close. Halladay walked 35 in 233 2/3 innings or 1.348 per nine innings. Lee was second-best in the NL and he walked 1.625 per nine.

Lefties had a lot more luck against Halladay than righties, hitting 273/305/354 against him compared to 206/236/275 for righties.

Halladay has allowed more than two runs in a start once in his last seven outings. Over those seven appearances he’s thrown to a 1.65 ERA with a 1.02 ratio.

Over his last 12 starts he’s allowed one home run in 86 1/3 innings (Lance Berkman hisownself on September 19, causing Halladay to unleash a fury of intentional walks the likes of which haven’t been seen before or since).

Halladay was third-best in the NL in terms of fewest HR per nine innings, behind Charlie Morton (six HR in 171 innings) and Matt Cain (9 in 221). That group of three was way better than the rest of the league. Halladay was third with 0.385 HR per nine and Madison Bumgarner was fourth at 0.528.

Halladay made two starts against St Louis this year, throwing to a 3.21 ERA with a 1.14 ratio and striking out 11 in 14 innings. On June 21, Halladay allowed a run over six innings as the Phils topped the Cards 10-2 in St Louis. The Cards scratched out a run in the fifth with the help of a bloop hit and a double-play that wasn’t. Halladay left down 1-0 and the Phils came to bat in the eighth down 2-1. In the eighth they scored nine runs without an extra-base hit.

In that game St Louis brought righty Jason Motte into the game to face Howard in the eighth inning and Motte hit Howard. Just saying.

The other start came September 19 in St Louis. Halladay gave up the home run to Berkman in the first and spent the rest of the day intentionally walking him (okay twice, but still). Halladay allowed four runs over eight innings in the game, his only start since August 16 in which he has allowed more than two runs. Down 4-1 going into the bottom of the ninth, the Phils scored two runs charged to Motte but lost 4-3.

Pujols is 2-for-11 against Halladay for his career. Berkman 2-for-5 with two walks. Molina 1-for-5. Punto 4-for-14. Jay 1-for-8. Craig 0-for-4. Schumaker 3-for-8.

Halladay has made three career post-season starts and threw a one-walk no-hitter against the Reds in game one of the ’10 NLDS.

The Phils lost game one of the ’10 NLCS against the Giants with Halladay on the mound and won game five with Halladay looking sick and off.

Overall, Halladay has made three career post-season starts and gone 2-1 with a 2.33 ERA and an 0.77 ratio. He has a 4.15 ERA over his last two playoff starts.

Righty Kyle Lohse (14-8, 3.39) goes for St Louis.

Coming off two ugly years in 2009 and 2010 where Lohse threw to a 5.54 ERA over 41 appearances and 40 starts, Lohse has been good for St Louis this season. He was tenth in the NL in ratio with a 1.168 and sixth in the league in best walk rate with 2.007 per nine innings.

Lohse had very similar numbers against righties and lefties for the season. Righties hit 248/284/384. Lefties fared a tiny bit better, but with a very similar 249/299/397 line.

Lohse started the season pitching great. In his 11 starts before the end of May, he threw to a 2.13 ERA with an 0.92 ratio over 80 1/3 innings. June, July and August didn’t go as well, though, as Lohse made 15 starts in which he threw to a 5.29 ERA and allowed 94 hits in 81 2/3 innings as opponents hit .288 and slugged .506 against him. He was very good in his four starts in September, throwing to a 1.37 ERA without allowing a home run in 26 1/3 innings.

He made two starts against the Phils on the year and had good numbers, throwing to a 1.76 ERA with an 0.98 ratio over 15 1/3 innings. On June 22 in St Louis, he held the Phils to three runs over eight innings and the Phils won 4-0 behind a complete-game from Cliff Lee. Rollins and Howard both homered off of Lohse in the fourth inning of that game. Rollins hit a solo shot and Howard’s was a two-run homer.

Lohse also started the September 19 game against Halladay and pitched very well, allowing an unearned run over 7 1/3 innings. The Phils scored their only run of the game in the second that day with the help of two bad plays by Nick Punto, one of which was called an error and one of which wasn’t.

Hunter Pence is the Phillie who has faced Lohse the most over his career. In 41 at-bats, Pence has hit 317/349/415 against him (13-for-41 with two doubles and a triple). Howard 8-for-16 with four walks and two home runs. Utley 4-for-24 (.167). Rollins 5-for-27 with a home run (.185). Polanco 10-for-28 (.357) with ten singles. Ibanez 9-for-39 with three home runs (.273 with a .545 slugging percentage). Victorino 5-for-24 with two doubles.

Pence’s next playoff plate appearance will be his first.

Lohse has made six post-season appearances. Five of them, including a start, came with the Twins between 2002 and 2004. He also appeared in relief for the Phils in game two of the ’07 NLDS against the Rockies. Kendrick started that game for the Phils and took a 3-2 lead into the top of the fourth. The Rockies loaded the bases against Kendrick with two outs and Lohse took over to pitch to Kaz Matsui. Matsui hit a 1-2 pitch from Lohse out to right for a grand slam, the Rockies led 6-3 and went on to win the game 10-5.

Overall, in six post-season appearances Lohse has thrown to a 3.38 ERA with an 0.90 ratio. He’s allowed just two walks in 13 1/3 innings and struck out 15. His other start came in game three of the 2003 NLDS between the Twins and Yankees. He allowed three runs in five innings that game and New York won 3-1. Hideki Matsui hit a two-run homer off of Lohse in the second inning of that game.

Is there time to get like Polanco and Ibanez to change their last names to Matsui before five o’clock tomorrow? Just spit-balling here, but it could be the kind of thing that pushes the Phillies over the top.

It’s still not clear what’s up with Matt Holliday and his finger. If you see him on the field, you should be wondering if he can throw at all.

Rafael Furcal has a hamstring problem and his status is also murky.

The very mention of Albert Pujols should terrify us all, but Pujols comes into tomorrow’s game having gone 6-for-32 with two doubles and a home run over his last seven games (188/212/344) to end the regular season.

On the less good news side, Berkman is hitting 400/492/540 over his last 59 plate appearances. Righty Allen Craig is 12-for-his-last-32 with five home runs (375/412/938). Five is an unusual number of home runs to have hit in your last 32 at-bats. Punto hit .308 and on-based .424 in September (but in just 35 plate appearances). Yadier Molina hit .305 this season and 352/390/549 over his last 197 plate appearances.

Jayson versus Jason

Over the last few weeks we’ve heard that Jayson Werth should or will get a contract that compares well to recent contracts signed by Matt Holliday and Jason Bay. All three of those guys are about the same age — Werth and Bay will be entering their 32-year-old season while Holliday will be entering his 31-year-old season. Here’s how some of their offensive numbers for the past three seasons compare:

Holliday 1968 122 77 315/397/528 925
Werth 1810 88 87 279/376/513 889
Bay 1709 84 73 273/371/499 870

The first thing is that it’s almost impossible to deny that, as good as Werth is, Holliday is a better offensive player. By OPS+, Holliday was better than Werth in 2008 (138 to 121), 2009 (139 to 129) and 2010 (149 to 145).

2008, 2009 and 2010 and the only years that Werth has been a full time player. Prior to 2008, Werth had never gotten 400 plate appearances in a season. Here’s how the numbers for the trio’s careers prior to 2008 compare:

Holliday 2345 150 103 319/380/556 935
Werth 1129 50 131 259/352/430 782
Bay 2589 129 118 281/375/515 890

Werth isn’t close to either Bay or Holliday when you compare what the three players did offensively before 2008.

Finally, there’s no question that Werth was a whole lot better than Jason Bay in 2010. That wasn’t the case in 2008 and 2009, though. Here’s some of the numbers for those two for ’08 and ’09 combined:

Werth 1158 42 60 270/369/503 871
Bay 1308 64 67 277/378/529 907

Again, Werth was way better than Bay in 2010. But there’s no case he was better than Bay prior to 2008 and no case he was better than Bay 2008-2009.

The other thing you need to consider is simply that the fact that Holliday and Bay got the contracts they did doesn’t necessarily mean they’re good contracts. Just about nobody, for example, can feeling real good about the four year, $66 million deal that Bay got before his miserable 2010 season. St Louis is probably feeling a little better about the seven years, $120 million for Holliday, but there’s a chance they might be feeling differently by the time 2015 rolls around.

Roy Halladay won the NL Cy Young award.

The Marlins traded Dan Uggla to the Braves for Omar Infante and Mike Dunn. Really they did.

It looks like the Fish will sign catcher John Buck.

Charlie Manuel fifth for Manager of the Year.

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