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Juan Pierre was at it again last night, going 1-for-2 with a double and a stolen base to lead the Phils to a 4-3 win over the Pirates. Pierre led off the bottom of the first with a bloop double off the glove of the left fielder and came around to score the first run of the game with the help of a pair of fly ball outs. In the third he was hit by a pitch, stolen second and came in to score on a double by Rollins.

Pierre is now hitting 373/431/424 in official Spring Training action and appears to have solidified a spot in the lineup for himself, at least against right-handed pitching.

Joe Blanton started the game for the Phils and allowed a pair of runs over 4 2/3 innings on two singles and a double. He didn’t walk a batter and struck out three. After five starts, Blanton has a 4.58 ERA and 1.07 ratio. In 19 2/3 innings he has walked just one batter while striking out 16.

Bastardo followed Blanton, facing one batter in the bottom of the fifth with the bases empty and striking him out to end the frame. Pat Misch went three innings after that, allowing a run on a solo homer to Andrew McCutchen in the sixth. Kyle Kendrick set McCutchen, Neil Walker and Garrett Jones down in order in the ninth with a one-run lead to get the save.

Kendrick dropped his ERA to a 1.54 with the outing. He and Valdes are the pitchers on the team who have pitched the most innings this spring without allowing a home run. They have combined to throw 24 1/3 innings without giving up a long ball (12 2/3 for Valdes and 11 2/3 for Kendrick). By a wide margin, Halladay is the pitcher on the team who has had the most trouble with allowing home runs in Spring Training. He has allowed seven in 22 innings — that rate of allowing home runs would have him giving about 64 over 200 innings. That might not even happen.

Victorino was 1-for-3 with a triple in the game and Galvis 2-for-3 with a seventh-inning triple that put the Phils on top to stay. Galvis is at 272/287/457 for the spring over 81 at-bats. Rollins was 1-for-2 with a double and two RBI out of the three-hole. He’s hitting 250/338/367.

The teams play again tonight with Hamels expected to pitch for the Phils.

In this article, Manuel suggests that Mayberry will still get a lot of chances despite the emergence of Pierre.

This article says Manuel won’t use Thome in the field a whole lot and suggests 20 games might be a realistic guess.

The other day I pointed out that Papelbon’s addition might help the Phillie bullpen bring down the huge rate at which their relievers issued walks in 2011. Qualls might as well. Here are the rates of runs, hits, walks and strikeouts per nine innings for the ’11 pen as well as Papelbon and Qualls for 2011 and for their careers (remembering that Papelbon has spent his whole career in the AL while Qualls has thrown all but 21 innings of his career in the NL):

The numbers for Qualls are a little scary overall, but his walk rate has always been under the 3.99 per nine innings that the bullpen posted for the Phils in 2011. Qualls has only had one year for his career in which he has posted a walk rate worse than 2.85 batters per nine — in 2010, a disaster for Qualls, he walked about 3.2 batters per nine while throwing to a 7.32 ERA.

Dontrelle Willis is a different story, of course. Willis has seen his walk rate explode in recent years to the detriment of his career. From 2003 to 2007 with the Marlins, Willis threw 1,022 2/3 innings and walked 344 batters — that’s about 3.03 batters per nine. Since he left Florida, 2008-2011, Willis has thrown just 199 innings in which he has walked 156 batters. That’s 7.06 batters per nine innings. You’re going to have some trouble putting up nice numbers overall if you walk 7.06 batters per nine — Willis’s ERA since the end of 2007 is 6.15.

The Phillies played Houston yesterday, losing 6-5 on a walkoff homer by Brian Bixler in the bottom of the tenth. They are 5-6.

Hamels started the game for the Phillies and was good again, holding the Astros to a run on four hits over five innings without walking a batter. The outing, the third of Spring Training for Hamels, raised his ERA to 1.69.

Bush pitched the sixth, allowing singles to the first two men he faced, but getting the next three to keep Houston off the board and lowering his ERA to 6.75. Lefty Raul Valdes allowed a run on two hits and a walk in the seventh — he’s now allowed a run on three hits and a walk over four innings. Brian Sanches followed him, allowing a run over two innings to lower his ERA to 6.75. Jeremy Horst started the tenth with a 5-3 lead. He allowed a a single and a walk before striking out righty Chris Wallace for the first out. Bixler was next, though, and he hit Horst’s first pitch out to left to give Houston the win. Horst came into the game having not been charged with a run in his first two appearances, but has now been charged with three runs in three innings.

Domonic Brown broke a 3-3 tie in the top of the tenth with a solo home run, his first of Spring Training. He was 2-for-5 on the day, raising his average to .313 (5-for-16 with two triples and a home run). That’s the good news. The bad news is that he’s so bad defensively it’s hard to believe the Phillies are going to put him on the field in a game that counts anytime soon. Brown made another bad miscue reacting to a ball hit to the outfield yesterday, misplaying Carlos Lee’s eighth inning line drive into a double.

Brown had also been charged with a throwing error in the seventh. It was his second error so far this Spring Training, but the reality is that two errors don’t capture just how atrocious his defense has been. He’s now OPSing 1.103 in his 16 official Spring Training at-bats, but there’s little left to the dream he would show up and prove he’s ready to join the team for the start of the regular season.

Michael Martinez was 2-for-2 with a pair of singles, upping his average to .333. Podsednik started in center and made a couple of nice defensive plays in right after shifting there. He was 1-for-5 at the plate to drop his average to .320 (8-for-25 with three doubles). Pierre went 0-for-1 with a walk and is hitting .263.

Mayberry started at first and went 0-for-3, dropping his line to 192/222/269 in a team-high 26 at-bats.

Martinez left yesterday’s game after being hit on the elbow by a pickoff attempt.

The same article says that Nix was scratched from yesterday’s game, but is expected to play soon.

The Phils face the Twins this afternoon with Halladay expected to pitch.

The past few posts have looked at a couple of areas where John Mayberry has been outstanding over the past two seasons — since he’s joined the Phils, Mayberry has hit home runs at a very high rate and also seen a large percentage of his hits go for extra-bases given his batting average.

On area where he’s a little off early in his career is the number of walks he’s drawing for a guy who has hit homers at such a high rate. For his career, Mayberry now has 369 plate appearances in which he has hit 21 home runs, which is 5.69% of his plate appearances. He has walked in just 29 of his 369 plate appearances, though, which is just 7.86%. And that percentage is low for a guy hitting home runs at that rate.

Here are the walks and home run rates of the ten players in either league from 2011 who got 200 plate appearances and homered in at least 5.69% of them (sorted by the number of plate appearances):

Ten players hit home runs in at least 5.69% of their plate appearances in 2011. That group combined to get 5,004 plate appearances in which they walked 577 times, which is 11.53%. Of the ten, Mayberry’s career walk rate of 7.86% is better than just two of the members of the group, Beltre and Heisey, and about the same as Lillibridge’s.

In 2010 there was nobody who got 200 plate appearances, homered in at least 5.69% of them and walked in less than Mayberry’s career rate of 7.86% of plate appearances.

Encarnacion was close, but still managed to top the Mayberry’s walk rate by a small margin.

It’s important to remember that Mayberry’s walk rate was terrible in 2009, when he walked twice in 60 plate appearances in his first action in the majors. Since 2009 it has been a lot better. In 2010 and 2011 combined, Mayberry walked in 27 of his 309 plate appearances, which is about 8.74%.

Over the last two year’s, Mayberry’s walk rate is already above his walk rate while in the minor leagues, so I’m not sure how much we should expect it to rise. It’s still just a tiny number of chances for Mayberry at the major league level, but in the chances he’s had he has hit the ball out of the yard with alarming frequency — both compared to the rest of baseball and compared to his own numbers in the minors.

This article from the Phillies web site says that Roy Oswalt is very interested in returning to the Phils. Sounds good to me.

This article suggests that Oswalt may be looking to skip the early part of the year and join a team around midseason.

Kevin Frandsen, who ruptured his Achillies in March, 2008, suggests it might take a year to a year and a half to fully recover from that injury in this article.

The same article linked above seems to suggest that Rich Dubee thinks that Jake Diekman has a better fastball than his fellow lefty Antonio Bastardo.

It also says that Justin De Fratus remains sidelined with a sore right elbow.

There’s not much about Utley’s ongoing issues with his right knee that sound very good.

In a previous post I pointed out that there are not many players over the last two seasons who have walked, gotten hits and especially hit home runs at the rate that John Mayberry has with the Phillies over the past two seasons. Another thing that Mayberry has done with the Phillies over the past two seasons is have a large percentage of his hits go for extra-bases while hitting for a relatively high average.

In 2010 and 2011 combined, Mayberry has gotten 309 plate appearances with the Phillies in which he has hit .276 (77-for-279). Of his 77 hits, 17 are doubles, one is a triple and he has hit 17 home runs. About 45.45% of his hits over the past two years have gone for extra-bases.

How many players in either league in 2011 meet all three of these criteria: Got 200 plate appearances, hit at least .276 and had 45.45% or more of the hits they did get go for extra-bases? Two.

And in 2010? Four.

Again, like in the previous post, it’s the high percentage of extra-base hits that make this group so tough to get into.

In each of the last two years, more than a hundred players have hit better than .276 across both leagues. In both season less than 30 saw 45.45% or more of their hits go for extra-bases.

This article suggests that Mayberry will spend more time in left than at first base early in the year. Again, the critical question to me seems to be who the Phillies are going to play at first against right-handed pitching if Howard is out and Thome can’t play first. Again again, it seems to me the best choice offensively is to play Brown in left and Nix or Mayberry at first, assuming that the lefty Nix is probably the more conservative choice but that Mayberry might have higher upside. That seems unlikely to me to happen, so I think we should brace ourselves for a significant amount of Wigginton at first against righties early in the year.

Ryan Howard took batting practice and has no time table for his return. He also suggests he might not get to full-strength until around the All-Star break.

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Point for today is that John Mayberry has hit home runs at a high rate with the Phils over the past two years.

Between 2010 and 2011, John Mayberry got 309 plate appearances with the Phillies in which hit to a 276/343/527 line with 27 walks, 77 hits and 17 home runs. In those plate appearances, he walked in 8.74% of his plate appearances, got a hit of any kind in 24.92% and homered in 5.5%.

Looking back at 2011, there were 355 players who got at least 200 plate appearances across both leagues. Of those, how many did at least as well in each of those three categories (ie, walked 8.74% of pa or better, got a hit in 24.92% or better and homered in 5.5% or better)? The answer is three.

And how about among the 346 players that got 200 plate appearances in 2010? Four.

So it’s a rather exclusive group of offensive players. What makes it so hard to get into? The home runs.

For each of the two seasons, here’s the percentage of players with at least 200 plate appearances that got walks, hits and home runs at the same rates Mayberry has with the Phils over the last two years as a percentage of plate appearances:

Nearly half of the players with 200 plate appearances in 2010 walked enough to make the list. Between a quarter and a third in both 2010 and 2011 got enough hits. But less than 4% in each season hit home runs at the rate Mayberry did in 2010 and 2011 combined.

Notably, Mayberry himself doesn’t make the cut in either of the two years, only in the two years combined. In 2010 he only got 13 plate appearances. In 2011, he got enough plate appearances, enough walks and enough hits, but homered in about 5.1% of his plate appearances (15 homers in 296 plate appearances).

In 2011, there were 14 players who got at least 200 plate appearances and hit home runs in 5.5% or more of their plate appearances. Kemp, Pujols and Napoli had all three of the hits, walks and homers. Nelson Cruz, Chris Heisey and Brent Lillibridge had the home runs but not the walks or hits. Adrian Beltre had the home runs and the hits but not the walks. Seven players, Prince Fielder, Curtis Granderson, Mark Teixeira, Jose Bautista, Mark Reynolds, Mike Stanton and Andruw Jones, had the homers and the walks but not the hits.

In 2010, four players had all three: Pujols, Cabrera, Votto and Konerko. There were eight players with the homers but not each of the other two categories. Stanton and Edwin Encarnacion missed on both walks and hits. Josh Hamilton got the hits but not the walks. And five players, Bautista, Adam Dunn, Russell Branyan, Jim Thome and Andruw Jones, got the homers and the walks but not enough hits.

Jose Contreras threw a bullpen session yesterday, did “fine” and “threw very, very well.” The same article says that Chad Qualls has arrived in camp and that Justin De Fratus, who has had some recent tightness in his right elbow, started to long toss.

Brad Lidge sounds less than thrilled with what happened between him and the Phillies in the off-season in this piece.

Gary Sheffield worked with Domonic Brown on Brown’s hitting over the winter.

Shane Victorino, who will be a free agent after the season, says he loves Philadelphia and there have been no discussions about a new contract with the Phils yet.

Between left field and first base, it’s likely we’re going to see a whole lot of John Mayberry early in 2012. And with good reason. Mayberry has shown enormous power with the Phillies over the past three years. And while most of the projections for 2012 don’t expect Mayberry’s success to continue, many fans would also say he’s earned a chance to prove that what he’s done so far at the major league level is not a fluke.

In 369 plate appearances with the Phillies, Mayberry has put up a surprising 265/328/518 line. In 2011, he got 296 plate appearances and slugged .513. Of the 141 NL players who got at least 275 plate appearances in 2011, Mayberry’s .513 slugging percentage was 15th-best. Of those same 141 players, his isolated power of .240 was tenth and the best on the Phillies. Ryan Howard’s isolated power of .235 was 13th-best among NL players with 275 plate appearances in 2011. Coming into 2011, Mayberry had hit six home runs in 73 plate appearances and had an absurd isolated power mark for his career of .304.

From 2005 to 2011, John Mayberry got 2,975 plate appearances at various levels in the minor leagues and posted a 258/328/457 line overall. About half of those plate appearances came at the Triple-A level for Mayberry — he spent most the 2008 season hitting in the extremely hitter-friendly PCL before seeing time in Lehigh Valley in 2009, 2010 and 2011.

Since the start of 2009, Mayberry has gotten 1,027 plate appearances at Lehigh Valley in which he has hit 263/325/431.

Here are Mayberry’s numbers from all levels in the minors, just at Lehigh Valley over the past three years and with the Phillies. Also included are the percentage of plate appearances in which he has walked, struck out, singled, doubled or homered for each:

Mayberry hasn’t just matched his minor league numbers in the big leagues, he has exceed them. He hit for a better average than he did in the minors with the same on base percentage and a higher slugging mark.

Mayberry’s strikeouts and walks with the Phils are very similar to what they were in the minors. He has struck out at almost the same rate while walking more regularly than he did at Lehigh Valley, but less than his time in the minors overall.

He has been more likely to get a hit with the Phils than he was in the minors. He has gotten a hit of any kind in 24.1% of his plate appearances with the Phils. He got hits in a similar 23.7% of his plate appearances with Lehigh Valley and in 23.0% of his plate appearance in the minors combined.

What he hasn’t done is hit singles. His percentage of plate appearances that ended in a single are a lot lower than they have been at Lehigh Valley and lower than in the minors altogether.

He’s been a little more likely to double with the Phils than he was in the minors.

He’s been a whole lot more likely to hit a home run. 3.8% of his plate appearances in the minors overall, 3.1% in his plate appearances with Lehigh Valley and 5.7% of his plate appearances with the Phillies.

So far for his career, 47.2% of his hits at the major league level have gone for extra-bases. In the minors overall he saw 41.9% of his hits go for extra-bases. At Lehigh Valley is was 36.2%.

Important to remember is that while Mayberry showed monster power in limited chances in 2009, his other numbers were rather awful. Mayberry made his debut with the Phillies that year and on-based .250 in 60 plate appearances, going 12-for-57 with two walks and a hit by pitch. He ended the year at 211/250/474. In 2010 and 2011 combined, he’s posted a far better 276/343/527 line in 309 plate appearances.

Over the last two years with the Phils, he has walked in a higher percentage of his plate appearances (8.7%) than he did in either the minors overall (8.2%) or at Lehigh Valley (7.6%). He’s gotten a hit in 24.9% of his plate appearances with the Phils, also more than he did in the minors (23.0%) or at Lehigh Valley (23.7%). He has struck out less (19.1% with the Phils, 21.8% all minors, 22.2% at Lehigh Valley). The power numbers are where he’s up the most. With the Phillies he has registered an extra-base hit in 11.3% (9.6% all minors and 8.6% Lehigh Valley) of his plate appearances over the last two years and a home run in 5.5% (3.8% all minors and 3.1% Lehigh Valley).

So, will Mayberry’s numbers with the Phils continue to dwarf his minor league output? Let’s hope for the best. Either way, he should be getting a whole lot of chances in the early going in 2012.

This suggests we shouldn’t expect to see too much of Utley early in Spring Training. It also suggests that Contreras could be ready for Opening Day and that Justin De Fratus has some tightness in his right elbow.

The Phillies and Kyle Kendrick agreed to a two-year, $7.5 million contract.

Manuel calls Juan Pierre a top-of-the-order hitter in this article. In 2011, Pierre got 729 plate appearances with the White Sox in which he on-based .329.

The Phils will get a supplemental pick in the 2012 draft now that Ibanez has signed with the Yankees.

Here’s the Spring Training roster for the Phillies.