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So just who on the Phillies did John Lannan plunk? A review.

July 26, 2007. Lannan faced the Phillies in his major league debut. The Phillies led 3-2 going into the bottom of the fifth. Victorino grounded to second for the first out in the frame before Lannan hit Utley in the hand, breaking it. He then hit Howard in the back and was ejected from the game. The Phillies took a 5-2 lead into the seventh inning, but the Nats scored two in the seventh and Jesus Flores hit a three-run homer off of Zagurski in the eighth. Nats won 7-6.

July 31, 2008. Lannan hit Shane Victorino, the second batter of the game for the Phillies, in the bottom of the first. The Phils went on to score eight runs charged to Lannan in 5 2/3 innings.

May 15, 2009. This game between the Nats and Phils featured five hit batters, including two by Lannan. Utley led off the top of the sixth with the Phillies down 4-1 and Lannan hit him with a pitch. Lannan got the next two before hitting Ibanez. Feliz followed with a single that scored Utley and knocked Lannan from the game. Down 6-4 in the bottom of the ninth, the Nats scored two runs off of Lidge to sent the game into extra-innings. The Phils scored four in the top of the twelfth and won 10-6.

August 1, 2010. Ryan Howard was the fourth batter of the game, coming to the plate in a scoreless tie with two down and Werth on second. Lannan drilled him on the right elbow. The elbow was x-rayed after the game and the x-rays came back negative. Howard injured his ankle running the bases and would not appear again for the Phillies until August 21.

September 27, 2010. The Phils were up 1-0 in the sixth with one down and Victorino on first when Lannan hit Utley. The Phils went on to score three runs in the frame and beat the Nats 8-0 as they clinched the NL East.

April 13, 2011. The Phillies led 2-0 in the fifth with two outs and the bases loaded. Lannan hit Howard on the right wrist, forcing in a run. Howard stayed in the game and x-rays after the game were negative. Halladay hit Nat Laynce Nix in the seventh and the Phillies won 3-2 behind a complete game, 123 pitch outing from Halladay.

May 5, 2011. Lannan hit Victorino, the second batter of the game for the Phillies in the bottom of the first inning of a scoreless tie.

June 1, 2011. Lannan hit Mayberry with one out in the top of the third and the bases empty. Mayberry is the only right-handed batter (not including the switch-hitter Victorino) to be hit by Lannan with the Phillies. Nix made a spectacular catch on a ball hit by Brown with the bases loaded to end the sixth inning in that game and the Nats went on to win 2-1.

September 26, 2012. Down 5-0, Howard led off the bottom of the second was hit by Lannan. The Nats pounded Kendrick in the game on their way to an 8-4 win.

And how did it work out for him? Not so great. It’s hard to tell if hitting batters is the cause or the symptom of problems, but, either way, his numbers overall in innings in which he has hit a Phillie batter aren’t so good. Here they are:

Ten earned runs over 7 2/3 innings is an 11.74 ERA. Notably, he’s walked just one hitter in the 7 2/3 innings (Polanco ahead of Utley on 9/27/10), so his control has been pretty good even in the innings when he’s plunking folks. 1.57 ratio for the 7 2/3 frames.

Even leaving the Phillies wasn’t enough to save Victorino. Lannan hit four batters in 2012 — Dan Uggla, Chipper Jones, Ryan Howard and Victorino when he was with the Dodgers.

Here are his career rates of hitting Phillies, non-Phillies and some of your favorite Phillies and non-Phillies:

There are four players that Lannan has hit three or more times in his career. Three of them are current or former Phils. He’s hit Howard four times and Utley, Victorino and Nate McLouth three times each.

The next update to Philliesflow will be around January 3.

That there could solve everything.

One way to look at John Lannan’s career is that he’s had four seasons in which he’s made at least ten starts and three of them have been pretty good.

Lannan has spent parts of six different seasons in the majors from 2007 through 2012. Of those, in two, 2007 and 2012, he threw less than 40 innings. If you remove those two, that leaves you with the four years from 2008 to 2011. In each of those four years, Lannan made at least 25 starts and over those years combined he threw to a 4.00 ERA with a 1.42 ratio.

Only one of the four seasons was really bad, though, his 2010 effort in which he threw to a 4.65 ERA with a 1.56 ratio. Opponents hit .302 against him. Removing 2010, in the three other years in which he’s made ten or more starts he has a 3.83 ERA with a 1.38 ratio.

Here are the four years of his career in which he’s thrown more than 40 innings.

Remember, that’s pretty much his whole career, removing only a total of 67 1/3 innings thrown in 2008 and 2012 combined. And if you take out 2010, things look pretty okay, at least judging by his 3.83 ERA and 1.38 ratio.

So what went wrong in 2010? Not his walk rate. He walked just 7.6% of the batters that he faced, which is the lowest mark for his career and well below his career walk rate of 8.7%. It wasn’t home runs — he allowed home runs to 2.2% of the hitters he faced, which was a decrease from his mark from the two previous years and is below his career home run rate of 2.3%.

What he did do was allow a lot more hits.

So his hit rate skyrocketed in 2010. But so did his batting average for balls in play. Coming into 2010, Lannan had thrown 423 innings over three seasons. His Baseball-Reference calculated BABIP for those three years is .275 with a range of .272 to .277 (.277 in 2007, .272 in 2008 and .277 again in 2009). In 2010 it was .322.

The other thing about Lannan’s BABIP is that after it took off in 2010, it stayed up. .301 in 2011 and .314 in 2012. From 2007 to 2009, opponents hit .261 against Lannan with a BABIP of .275. From 2010 through 2012, opponents hit .284 against him with a BABIP of .311.

Also important to remember is that Lannan’s best year by ERA, 2011, when he put up a 3.70, is far from his best year in the majors. He’s going to have trouble keeping his ERA at that level with a 1.46 ratio and we should all be hoping he can bring his ratio down to 2008 and ’09 levels. Opponents hit .272 against him in ’11 and his walk rate of 3.7 batters per nine was above his career mark of 3.4.

Another thing that odd about Lannan is his recent history around giving up home runs. He hasn’t allowed one in his last 11 starts. Between August 13, 2011 and August 31, 2011, Lannan allowed five home runs in 21 innings for the Nationals. Since then he’s made 11 starts, throwing 57 1/3 innings without allowing a home run.

This article suggests that the Phillies have Cody Ross and Vernon Wells on their shopping list. Let’s hold out hope that either 1) it’s a really, really long list or 2) it’s a list from the 2010 off-season that somebody just recently uncovered. Wells is owed $21 million in 2013 and $21 million in 2014 and has hit 222/258/409 in 791 plate appearances over the last two years.

This article from yesterday’s Boston Globe says, “Ross has drawn considerable interest from the Braves, Phillies, Mets, Yankees, and Orioles, but nothing is close, according to a major league source.” The article also speculates on the possibility that Boston wants to trade Ellsbury, move Victorino to center and then sign Ross.

This suggests that the Phillies may be interested in acquiring left-handed reliever JP Howell. I’d be pretty surprised if the Phillies added a left-handed relief pitcher without trading away one of the six they currently have on their 40-man roster (Bastardo, Horst, Valdes, Diekman, Savery and Robles, in that order, in my opinion). Maybe they could add another fourth outfielder who can’t play center? Oh wait, they’re working on that.

It appears that the Phillies have reorganized their rotation in recent weeks, outing 25-year-old-righty Vance Worley and inning 28-year-old lefty John Lannan.

So who’s better — Lannan or Worley? It’s hard to know who will fare better in 2013, and the issue is complicated because Lannan is (almost exactly) three years older, but it’s hard to make the case that Lannan has been better than Worley in the time they’ve spent in the majors.

Here are some of their numbers for their careers, including Lannan’s combined numbers through his age 25 season (Worley just finished his age 25 season):

Through their age 25 seasons, Lannan had thrown far more innings in the majors than Worley. He had thrown 566 1/3 innings through the end of the 2010 season while Worley has still thrown just 277 2/3 for his career.

In just about every other way, though, Worley has been better. Through their age 25 seasons, Worley has a better ERA, has thrown to a lower ratio, allowing fewer hits, walks and home runs per nine innings while striking out batters at a higher rate. All of those things are also true if you compare the career numbers of the two.

Worley has also had the best year by WAR. Using both Baseball-Reference and FanGraph’s calculations of WAR, the best season either of the two has had to date is Worley’s 2011 performance. On the other hand, Lannan’s 2009 was almost as good and Lannan has had two very good seasons, 2008 and 2009, while Worley has only had one.

Notably, Lannan’s two best seasons came before his age 25 year. Over the last three years, he’s started 64 games and thrown to a 4.12 ERA with a 1.50 ratio, allowing 402 hits in 360 innings while opponents have hit .284 against him. The 4.12 ERA and 1.50 ratio for Lannan over the last three seasons are pretty similar to the 4.20 ERA and 1.51 ratio that Worley put up in his worrisome 2012 season.

Coming up in the same division, Worley and Lannan each spent time in the Double-A Eastern League and Triple-A International League. Here’s what the two have done in each of those leagues:

They have very similar numbers at Double-A with Lannan posting a better ERA. Lannan has thrown more than twice as many innings in the Triple-A Eastern League, but Worley’s numbers are significantly better as he has allowed fewer hits and walks while striking out batters at a higher rate.

The biggest question as we look towards 2013 and beyond is whether you think Worley’s enormous hit rate in 2012 was a fluke or not. He has close to no chance of being successful in the long run with opponents hitting .296 against him. He was also victimized by one of the highest rates of BABIP of all pitchers in baseball.

Todd Zolecki suggests that trading for a player like Vernon Wells or Alfonso Soriano might make sense for the Phillies if they don’t sign Cody Ross here.

Baseball America’s Top Ten Prospects for the Phillies was released with 21-year-old lefty Jesse Biddle at the top of the list.

Busy weekend for the Phillies that saw them agree to deals with two pitchers — lefty John Lannan appears to be set to serve as the fifth starter and righty Mike Adams looks likely to set up Papelbon.

This article says that the deal with Adams is for two years, $12 million and the deal with Lannan is one year, $2.5 million.

Lannan has made 19 starts against the Phillies over his career, throwing to an ugly 5.53 ERA with a 1.74 ratio. Opponents have hit 329/404/546 against him in Citizens Bank Park. So that could be better. In 94 1/3 innings against the Phillies in all stadiums he’s hit 11 batters. In 689 1/3 innings against all other teams, he’s hit 19 batters. In his major league debut on July 26, 2007, Lannan was ejected in the fifth inning after hitting Utley and Howard back-to-back. The ball that hit Utley broke his hand.

Here’s my guess on how the pitcher staff for 2013 looks at this point as well as the top candidates to fill the last two slots:

On Friday, the Phillies claimed 23-year-old left-handed reliever Mauricio Robles off of waivers from Seattle. Robles was primarily a starter in Seattle minor league system through 2011. In 2012 he made 43 appearances, 37 of which were in relief, and threw to a 5.78 ERA with 1.69 ratio between Double-A and Triple-A. He walked 63 in 71 2/3 innings. That’s not a joke, it’s actually a stat.

This suggests that the Phillies and Mariners are among the teams interested in Cody Ross and that Ross may be looking for a three-year, $25 million contract.

This suggests that the Phillies may have one payroll slot left, which would allow them to pay a new outfielder about $7 million.

The Phils played the thirtieth game of their season last night. So far, so good. After winning to complete a three-game sweep of the Nats, the Phils are 21-9 and tied for the best record in baseball.

The series was notable for the explosion of Raul Ibanez, who continued to hit last night, going 3-for-4 with a double, a home run and three RBI. Ibanez came into the series hitting .154 for the season and pounded the ball in all three games, going 8-for-12 with three doubles and a pair of home runs.

The Phillies are 21-9 on the year after beating the Washington Nationals 7-3 last night to complete the three-game sweep. They lead the second-place Marlins by two games in the NL East.

Halladay got the start for the Phillies and went seven innings, allowing two runs on six hits. One of the hits went for extra-bases, a double. He struck out ten and didn’t walk a batter.

Danny Espinosa was the first batter of the game and grounded to Rollins. Alex Cora followed and singled to center. He stole second and would have been thrown out by Sardinha, but the ball went off of Valdez’s glove and Cora was safe. Halladay struck Jayson Werth out looking and Laynce Nix out swinging to leave Cora at second.

If Valdez isn’t going to hit at all, it’s important he catch the ball when it comes near him.

Adam LaRoche doubled to left to start the second. Halladay struck Wilson Ramos out looking behind him for the first out and Jerry Hairston out swinging for the second. Ian Desmond grounded to Valdez to set Washington down.

Pitcher John Lannan went down on a ground ball to second to start the third. Espinosa struck out looking and Cora grounded to first.

Halladay started the fourth with a 6-0 lead and Werth lined a single to left to start the inning. Halladay struck Nix out again for the first out before LaRoche moved Werth to second with a single. Ramos was next and he singled to left, scoring Werth to cut the lead to 6-1 and moving LaRoche to second. Hairston was next and singled, too, loading the bases. Desmond hit a fly ball to center for the second out, deep enough for LaRoche to score and make it 6-2. Lefty Matt Stairs hit for the pitcher Brian Broderick and grounded to second to leave men on first and second.

Halladay threw a 1-2-3 fifth.

He struck out Nix and LaRoche with a 7-2 lead in the sixth.

He struck out Desmond and Brian Bixler in a 1-2-3 seventh.

Bastardo started the eighth. Espinosa led off with a double and moved to third when Cora followed with a single to right. Werth flew to left for the first out with Espinosa tagging and scoring. 7-3. Righty Michael Morse hit for the pitcher Henry Rodriguez and flew to center for the second out. Cora took second on a wild pitch, but Bastardo struck out LaRoche to leave him there.

Madson threw a 1-2-3 ninth to lower his ERA on the year to 0.75.

Two innings for the bullpen in which they allow a run on two hits. Bastardo threw 22 pitches, Madson 11. Nobody has pitched more than one day in a row.

The Phillies lineup against lefty John Lannan went (1) Rollins (2) Victorino (3) Polanco (4) Howard (5) Mayberry (6) Ibanez (7) Valdez (8) Sardinha. Mayberry gets the start in right with Francisco on the bench. The righty Francisco oddly comes into tonight’s game hitting just 241/313/310 on the year against lefties. Ibanez stays in left against the lefty. Valdez at second with Orr on the bench. The righty Sardinha catches with the lefty Schneider and hurting Ruiz on the bench.

Victorino was hit by a pitch with one out in the first, but Polanco and Howard both went down behind him.

Valdez and Sardinha singled back-to-back with two outs in the second, putting men on first and second for Halladay. Halladay smashed a line drive back up the middle, but Lannan caught it to end the inning.

Rollins singled to start the bottom of the third and Victorino homered to left behind him. 2-0. Polanco followed that with a single and Howard walked. Mayberry doubled, Polanco scored (3-0) and Howard went to third. Ibanez cleared the bases with a double. 5-0. Righty Brian Broderick took over for Lannan and Valdez singled to center, scoring Ibanez to make it 6-0. Sardinha flew to left for the first out before Halladay bunted Valdez to second with the second. Rollins grounded to first to leave him there.

First seven batters of the inning reach on three singles, two double, a home run and a walk.

The lead was cut to 6-2 when the Phils hit in the fourth. Polanco singled with one out, but Howard and Mayberry went down behind him.

Ibanez hit a long home run to right center to start the fifth. 7-2. The Phils went in order behind him.

Rollins singled to start the sixth and Victorino walked behind him. Polanco flew to right for the first out and Howard struck out for the second before Victorino and Rollins pulled off a double-steal. Mayberry flew to Werth in foul territory to leave the runners at second and third.

Ibanez started the seventh with a single. With Valdez at the plate the ball got away from Ramos and Ibanez tried to take second, but Ramos got to it quickly and Ibanez started late and Ibanez was thrown out at second. Valdez and Sardinha both struck out behind Ibanez.

The lead was cut to 7-3 when the Phils hit in the eighth. With lefty Doug Slaten on the mound for Washington, Francisco hit for Bastardo to start the inning and walked. The Phils went in order behind him.

Rollins was 2-for-5 in the game and 6-for-13 with two walks and a triple in the three-game series. He’s hitting 292/380/375 on the season.

Victorino 1-for-3 with a walk and a two-run homer. 4-for-11 with two walks and a home run in the series. 292/361/492 for the year.

Polanco 2-for-5 last night and 3-for-11 with a walk and two RBI in the series. 375/418/483.

Howard 0-for-3 with a walk and three strikeouts. 2-for-11 with five strikeouts and two walks in the series, one of which was intentional. He’s 3-for-his-last-20 with three singles and hitting 276/346/509 on the season.

Mayberry was 1-for-4 with a double and an RBI. 1-for-4 with a double and a walk in the series. 306/405/472 on the year. Francisco walked in his only plate appearance last night and was 0-for-6 with three walks in the series. He’s hitting 250/352/413 for the season and is 1-for-his-last-12 with five walks.

Ibanez 3-for-4 with a double, a home run and three RBI. 8-for-12 with three doubles, two home runs and five RBI in the series. 214/283/350 on the year.

Valdez 2-for-4 with an RBI. 3-for-8 with three singles and two RBI in the series. 250/288/289 on the year.

Sardinha was 1-for-4 with two strikeouts. He’s 1-for-7 on the season. Schneider was 3-for-8 with three singles in the series and is hitting 184/244/368 in 41 plate appearances.

Cliff Lee (2-2, 3.66) faces Derek Lowe (2-3, 3.72) and the Braves tonight. Two of Lowe’s last three starts haven’t been good and he’s thrown to a 7.07 ERA in 14 innings in those starts overall. Lee was good in his last start, holding the Mets to a run over seven innings.

Update: PS — are you reading the Starts Log? The Phillies have 17 quality starts in their last 20 games. They’re leading all teams in either league with 23 for the year.

Just wanted to start by saying that there was a point about the Phillies coming. I mean, not today, but it’s coming.

Whether you call it ratio or WHIP, thanks to fantasy baseball, most fans are familiar with the idea of hits plus walks over innings pitched.

There’s a big limitation to that stat, of course, and that’s that not all hits are the same. The context in which an inning is pitched or a walk is given might make it more important than another inning pitched or walk, but what an inning pitched or a walk means doesn’t change. That’s not that case with hits — a hit can be a single, a double, a triple or a home run. That’s part of why pitchers with the same ratio (or WHIP) can have dramatically different results.

For example, take the case of two NL pitchers from the 2009 season, San Diego righty Josh Geer and the Nats lefty hand breaker John Lannan. Both had threw to the same 1.35 ratio in 2009, but with hugely different results:

Same ratio, but Lannan’s ERA is more than two runs lower than Geer’s despite the fact that Geer was much better at preventing walks. Was Geer unlucky? Maybe he was, but the bigger deal was that the hits that Geer gave up were way worse than the hits that Lannan gave up. And ratio (or WHIP) doesn’t care because it treats all hits the same.

I think ratio is a nifty stat mostly because lots of people understand what it means and can quickly interpret that a 1.18 ratio is really good and a 1.58 ratio is pretty bad. Counting all hits the same is pretty limiting, though. They aren’t the same. Let’s look at Geer and Lannan again, and instead of using ratio ((hits + walks)/IP), let’s look at their total bases allowed plus walks over innings pitched in ’09:

The point here isn’t that Lannan didn’t give up a lot of extra-base hits. He did. Only one player in the NL allowed more doubles than the 50 he gave up. The point is that Geer gave up more (53 in 102 2/3 or about .516 XBH per inning for Geer compared to 75 in 206 1/3 innings or about .363 per inning for Lannan) and that the extra-base hits that Geer gave up were worse than the extra-base hits that Lannan gave up. You can tell that by seeing that Geer allowed five more homers than Lannan in 103 2/3 fewer innings. The average extra-base hit yielded by Geer went for 3.08 bases while the average extra-base hit yielded by Lannan went for 2.63 bases. The difference between the severity of the hit that was allowed isn’t reflected by ratio, but it is if you replace it hits with total bases in the formula.

Jamie Moyer had a fantastic outing on Friday at the Phils topped the Yankees 3-0. Moyer allowed one hit and didn’t walk a batter over 6 2/3 innings, dropping his official spring ERA to 0.77. Victorino was 2-for-4 and drove in a pair of runs for the Phils.

I’m going to be very surprised if Moyer isn’t in the rotation at the start of the season.

Hamels didn’t fare as well on Saturday as the Phils fell to the Twins 8-4. Hamels allowed five runs on seven hits and two walks over 6 1/3 innings. His ERA for the spring is up to 5.57. Contreras had a rough outing in the game as well, allowing three runs in 2/3 of an inning. Jim Thome connected for a two-run homer off of Contreras. Dobbs homered for the Phils and Francisco, Schneider and Castro all had two hits.

The Phillies and Pirates were rained out yesterday.

The Phillies sent John Mayberry to minor league camp yesterday. Mayberry hit 289/349/447 this spring and will be presumably be back the first time the Phillies need an outfielder or bench player. The linked article also says that Ibanez would not have played in yesterday’s game if it had not been rained out due to a bruise on his right arm.

Jayson Werth and Reggie Jackson had lunch on Friday. Werth suggests it didn’t have anything to do with the fact that he’s a free agent after the 2010 season.

Madson will be the Phillies closer to start the season.