Tag: Joe Savery

Phils not much for fan appreciation night, but definitely appreciating the math skills of whoever it is that says they’ve clinched

Hope those folks have a computer or double-checked their work or something.

The Phillies are 98-58 on the year after losing 6-1 to the Washington Nationals last night. The Nats sweep the four-game series. The Phillies have lost six in a row for the first time this season.

Oswalt pitched into the eighth inning in the game and was better than his line. In 7 2/3 innings he was charged with six runs on seven hits and two walks. Five of the hits went for extra-bases, four doubles and a three-run homer in the eighth. He struck out four.

Better than his line last night or not, Oswalt has thrown to a 4.65 ERA over his last six starts while opponents have hit .287 against him.

He allowed a pair of runs in the third as the Nats jumped out to an early lead. With two outs and a man on third, Ian Desmond popped a ball up that fell in right field between Utley and Bowker for an RBI-double. Roger Bernadina followed that with a single into right that scored Desmond and put Washington up 2-0.

Oswalt kept Washington off the board after that until the eighth, starting that frame with Washington still holding on to a 2-0 lead. Desmond singled with two outs in the eighth and came in to score when Bernadina followed with a double. 3-0. Oswalt walked the next batter, Ryan Zimmerman, before Michael Morse hit a ball out to center for a three-run homer that put the Nats up 6-0.

The three-run homer by Morse turned Oswalt’s line around and was the big swing of the game. Oswalt hasn’t really had a problem with home runs this year — his issues are more around giving up too many hits. For the season he has now allowed 150 hits in 133 innings, which is about 10.2 hits per nine innings. Opponents have hit .286 against him. Over his career he’s allowed 8.7 hits per nine and opponents have hit .254 against him. Righties are hitting .293 against him and have hit .247 against him for his career. His batting average for balls in play for the year is .326, which is the highest mark for any pitcher on the team who has faced at least 175 batters. .292 for the team for the year.

The Phils had just four hits in the game, two of which came in the bottom of the ninth when they scored their lone run. Mayberry doubled with two outs and came in to score when Ruiz followed with a single to right.

Joe Savery threw a 1-2-3 ninth in his second career appearance.

Lidge got the final out of the eighth, striking out Laynce Nix after Morse’s homer chased Oswalt from the game. He dropped his ERA on the year to 1.10 with the one-out appearance. In 16 1/3 innings he has struck out 21. He hasn’t been charged with a run in 8 1/3 innings over his last 11 appearances. He hasn’t walked anybody in 2 1/3 inning over his last four outings — he hasn’t pitched much this year, but walks have been the problem when he has. He’s walked 12 in 16 1/3 innings for the year.

The offense continues to struggle. Rollins, Victorino and Utley combined to go 0-for-10 in the game. They were 0-for-36 in the series.

Rollins 0-for-13 with a walk in the series. 2-for-his-last-21. 224/307/333 over his last 176 plate appearances.

Victorino 0-for-15 with a walk in the series. 159/246/283 over his last 127 plate appearances.

Utley 0-for-8 in the series. 217/290/319 over his last 183 plate appearances.

Polanco didn’t play yesterday, but was 2-for-8 in the series.

Ibanez was 0-for-4 yesterday and 3-for-12 with a home run in the four-game set.

Ruiz had three of the four hits for the Phils in yesterday’s game, going 3-for-4. 3-for-7 in the series.

Mayberry had the other hit, a ninth-inning double. 1-for-2 in the game. 6-for-13 with a double and a home run in the series.

Francisco went 0-for-2 in the game but was 5-for-14 in the series with five singles.

Hamels (14-9, 2.80) faces righty RA Dickey (8-13, 3.35) tonight.


Kendrick making sure everyone knows that Halladay’s beard looks like his and not the other way around

After eight more scoreless innings from the starters, the five guys who have started for the Phillies in official spring training games have a 1.41 ERA and an 0.81 ratio. Kyle Kendrick has surprisingly been the best of the bunch, allowing just four hits over nine scoreless innings without walking a batter. It may be enough to make him wish he pitched for a team that was considering spring training when choosing its starting rotation.

Blanton, Halladay and Kendrick have combined to not walk a batter in twenty innings. Happ, Halladay and Kendrick have combined not to allow a run in 20 1/3 innings.

Yesterday Kendrick shut out Baltimore for four innings but the Phils lost 4-3. Kendrick left with a 1-0 lead, but Escalona got hit hard again after Kendrick left the game. Escalona was charged with three runs in the fifth inning, raising his spring ERA to 13.50. Drew Carpenter followed Escalona and allowed a run over three innings to drop his spring ERA to 1.13 over eight innings.

Polanco went 2-for-3 in the game to raise his average to .375 (9-for-24 with nine singles).

Saturday Happ threw four strong innings as the Phils topped the Twins 5-4. Happ held Minnesota to a single single and struck out three before Bastardo got hit hard in the sixth inning. Bastardo allowed four runs on five hits — only three of the runs were earned. Durbin, Madson, Contreras and Baez all threw a scoreless inning in the game. Francisco hit a solo shot in the game and Cody Ransom had a three-run homer. Clay Condrey pitched the sixth for the Twins and allowed a run on a pair of singles.

This suggests that Madson will close if Lidge can’t start the year.

Scott Eyre may be open to the idea of pitching again.

First cuts of camp for the Phillies included Scott Mathieson, Phillippe Aumont, Tyson Gillies, Jesus Sanchez, Joe Savery and Drew Naylor.

Amaro says it’s probably unlikely that Romero will be available to start the season in the article linked above. I think it’s definitely unlikely.

Not many people have been blown away by what Bastardo, Zagurski or Escalona are doing in spring training.


Phils hopeful about their pitching just as long as nobody moves them to the ACC

While the Phils struggled some in the early innings last season, it was still the relievers who had more trouble overall. The table below shows the Phillies rank in the NL for starters and relievers for 2009 in ERA, ratio, runs allowed per nine innings and runs allowed per batter faced:


NL Rank
  ERA Ratio Runs
allowed per 9 innings
Runs
allowed per batter faced
Starting
Pitchers
7 6 7 7
Relief
Pitchers
9 7 9 9

Of the 16 teams in the NL, it seems fair to say that the Phillies starters were seventh best in the league and the relievers were ninth best in the league.

That’s a little misleading, though, because the Phillies had some awful problems with their rotation in 2009. They started the season terribly. At the end of May, Phillies starters had thrown to a 5.86 ERA and a 1.51 ratio over 48 games. They had an awful stretch to end the season as well. They didn’t get a quality start in their last 12 games, pitching to a 6.60 ERA and a 1.66 ratio over those games. They were pretty good in between, though. Here’s their ERA and ratio by month for 2009:

Month ERA Ratio
April 6.35 1.68
May 5.53 1.39
June 4.10 1.39
July 3.02 1.09
August 3.16 1.27
Sept/Oct 4.39 1.33
     
Total 4.29 1.34

In June, July and August, Phillies starting pitchers threw 499 1/3 innings with a 3.41 ERA and a 1.25 ratio. Atlanta’s starters had the best ERA in either league in ’09 — they threw to a 3.52 ERA with a 1.27 ratio for the season.

The Phils beat Florida State 13-6 last night in their first spring training action, a game that was most notable for an ugly debut for Phillippe Aumont. Aumont got hit hard in the third inning, getting just two outs while being charged with five runs on three walks and two hits, including a three-run homer. The Phils outscored Florida State 13-1 after finding themselves in a 5-0 hole in the third. Dane Sardinha went 2-for-2 with a double and four RBI and the Phillies walked 16 times in the game. Drew Naylor, Joe Savery and Jesus Sanchez threw four perfect innings to end the game and struck out nine batters combined. Happ got the start and allowed a single and a walk over two scoreless innings.

The Phils play the Yankees this afternoon, with Halladay and Kendrick expected to pitch.


No place like home for a Phillies pitcher, but not in a good way

The Phillies have been amazing on the road this season and struggling badly at home. As you can probably guess, they are scoring more runs on their games on the road. The chart below shows how many runs they have scored overall, in their games at home and on the road and the total number of runs they would score if they produced runs at that rate over 162 games for each category:

  G RS RS/G RS/G*162
Total 61 337 5.52 895
Home 29 145 5.00 810
Away 32 192 6.00 972

And, as you have also probably guessed, they have been much better at preventing runs on the road than they have at home:

  G RA RA/G RA/G*162
Total 61 298 4.89 791
Home 29 161 5.55 899
Away 32 137 4.28 694

Clearly the Phillies have been better at both scoring and preventing runs on the road. One of those areas has been a much bigger issue than the other, though. To give you a hint, the thing where they’re scoring five runs a game at home isn’t so much a problem.

Not counting yesterday’s games, here’s how many runs the teams in the NL have scored per games this season (ordered by the number of runs they’ve scored):

Team G R RS/Game
Philadelphia
LA Dodgers
Colorado
Florida
Milwaukee
NY Mets
St. Louis
Pittsburgh
Washington
Arizona
Atlanta
Cincinnati
Houston
Chicago Cubs
San Francisco
San Diego
61
64
63
65
63
61
64
63
62
64
62
62
62
60
62
62
337
321
318
307
288
284
279
278
277
274
263
262
260
253
248
241
5.52
5.02
5.05
4.72
4.57
4.66
4.36
4.41
4.47
4.28
4.24
4.23
4.19
4.22
4.00
3.89

The Phillies have been awful at home this season in terms of wins and losses. They’ve scored a run a game more on the road than they have at home, but they’re still scoring five runs a game at home. Five runs a game is a lot. There are 15 teams in the NL that aren’t the Phillies. Two of them have scored five runs a game or more this season. If the Phillies played 162 games and scored runs at the rate they are scoring them at home, they would score 810 runs. That’s more runs than they scored in 2008. In ’08 there was only one NL team that scored more than 810 runs for the season — the Cubs scored 855.

So while the Phillies may be scoring less runs at home than they are on the road, they’re still scoring a ton of runs at home.

The bigger problem is the rate at which they are allowing runs. Here’s the number of runs allowed by NL teams this season:

Team G RA RA/Game
Washington
Florida
Arizona
San Diego
Colorado
Philadelphia
Houston
Atlanta
Milwaukee
Pittsburgh
St. Louis
NY Mets
Cincinnati
Chicago Cubs
LA Dodgers
San Francisco
61
64
63
61
62
60
61
61
62
62
63
60
61
59
63
61
355
324
304
301
295
292
290
271
267
267
266
265
259
243
237
232
5.82
5.06
4.83
4.93
4.76
4.87
4.75
4.44
4.31
4.31
4.22
4.42
4.25
4.12
3.76
3.80

Again, 15 teams in the NL that aren’t the Phillies. Just one of them, the miserable Nationals, are allowing more runs per game for the season than the 5.55 that the Phillies have allowed at home. If the Phils allowed 5.55 runs per game over 162 games they would allow about 899. No team in the NL allowed that many runs in 2008. The Pirates allowed the most runs and they gave up 884.

Joe Savery is pitching well at Reading.


The kids are all over the place

The Phils young guns got hammered by the Pirates yesterday as the team fell to the Pirates, 11-6. With the loss they fall to 1-1 in spring training action. Savery and Outman both got hit hard. Savery started the fourth with a 5-1 lead and allowed five runs in the inning, including a three-run home run to Nate McLouth. Outman, who unlike Savery is thought by many to be a legitimate candidate make an impact with the Phillies on the field this year, was charged with four runs in 1 2/3 innings.

Kendrick allowed a run on a solo homer over three innings. Rosario allowed a run on a hit and two walks over two innings. Early results on Rule 5 pick Lincoln Holdzkom are in and they strongly suggest you seek cover. Holdzkom wasn’t charged with a run in his 1 1/3 innings, but he walked three, hit a batter and uncorked a wild pitch.

Howard put the Phils up 5-1 with a three-run homer in the third. Feliz had two more hits, 2-for-3 with another double. Bruntlett saw some time defensively in center. He was 1-for-2 with a triple and an RBI in the game.

The Phils play the Pirates again this afternoon.

In the unlikely event you were wondering, the lone intentional walk that Chase Utley received in 2007 came against the Braves on September 4. Ruiz led off the second with a home run off of righty Buddy Carlyle to put the Phils up 3-0. Lohse popped out for the first out before J-Roll doubled, bringing up Utley, who was in the two-hole that day in front of Burrell. Carlyle walked him intentionally to set up the double-play, but Burrell popped to short for the second out. Howard drew a walk to load the bases, but Rowand struck out behind him to turn the Phils away.

So it worked.

Hamels and Kendrick are going to have to come up with some kind of agreement around the use of the expression “for myself” in interviews.

This suggests the Mets, Cardinals and Orioles may have interest in Kyle Lohse.


Walk talk

Despite the firepower of the Phillies’ offense, Ryan Howard continues to gather intentional walks at a tremendous pace. Howard received 35 intentional walks in 2007 after being passed intentionally 37 times in 2006. If you look at the single-season leaders in intentional walks, Howard has put his name in the top eleven of the all-time list in each of the last two seasons.

I wrote about Howard’s intentional walk rate last year as well. Howard was walked intentionally 37 times in 2006 and 35 times in 2007. Seems like the decrease should be good news, but you have to remember that Howard got fewer plate appearances in 2007. The rate at which he was passed intentionally went up.

 
PA

IBB

PA/IBB
2007 648 35 18.5
2006 704 37 19.0

One of the differences between 2007 and 2006 was that in ’06 Howard hadn’t settled in the cleanup spot. In 2006 just 351 of his 704 plate appearances, just under half, came as a cleanup hitter. In his time hitting fourth he was walked intentionally 28 times or about once every 12.5 plate appearances. In 2007, 633 of 648 of his plate appearances (almost 98%) came hitting fourth. In those 648 plate appearances he was walked intentionally 34 times or about once every 19 plate appearances.

So while he was walked intentionally more frequently overall in 2007, the rate at which he was walked intentionally as a cleanup hitter was much lower.

And that, no doubt, is because the Phillies’ five hitters were so much better in 2007 than in 2006, right? Here’s the problem with that if you look at what the Phillies’ #5 hitters did in 2006 and 2007:

 
AVG

OBP

SLG

OPS
2007 .273 .365 .466 .830
2006 .266 .356 .544 .900

The Phillies’ five-hitters sure look like they were better in 2006 than they were in 2007. And they were, but they were better because of Howard himself hitting fifth.

Here’s what the numbers for the five-hitters look like if you take out Howard’s plate appearances as a #5 hitter from 2006:

 
AVG

OBP

SLG

OPS
2007 .273 .365 .466 .830
2006 w/o Howard .251 .346 .473 .819

It’s still not as dramatic as I would have guessed, but at least the 2007 numbers for the five-hitters are better than the 2006 now. In ’07 Rowand got the most at-bats as a five-hitter for the Phils, posting an .874 OPS while hitting fifth. Burrell saw a lot of time there, too, but wasn’t as successful. He put up an .806 OPS as a five hitter but crushed the ball while hitting sixth (1.179 OPS in 118 at-bats), bringing the numbers down overall. In 2006 Howard got the most at-bats hitting fifth and Burrell was next, posting a .918 OPS in 148 at-bats in a much better season in the five-hole.

Brad Lidge had surgery on his right knee and it went well. He is expected to miss three to six weeks.

Lidge sounds a little tired of talking about the home run that Pujols hit against him in 2005.

The Phillies play a game tonight against Florida State. Joe Savery will get the start. Happ, Outman, Carrasco and Bisenius are also scheduled to pitch.

The Phillies signed left-handed pitcher Jared Locke and right-handed pitcher Charles Vartanian from a tryout camp.

This interesting article from over the weekend reviews Phillies’ outfield prospects. Everything’s just ducky until it suggests that in 2009 the Phils could put Jenkins/Werth in left, Victorino in right and Golson in center. That would be a really miserable outfield. I’d guess the chances of that happening are just about zero.


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