Tag: Joe Blanton

Log jog

I finalized the Start Log for 2012.

I think there’s some interesting stuff there that reminds a lot about what went wrong for the Phillies in 2012.

Looking at the blue band in the middle and starting at the top, we see the team’s record by starting pitcher. Some highlights:

  • The Phillies went 14-11 in Halladay’s starts in 2012. Coming into the season, in Halladay’s two years with the Phils the team was 46-19 in the games he started.
  • 21-10 in games started by Hamels, by far the best mark of any pitcher on the team. The Phils finished the year 81-81, so that means they were 60-71 when someone other than Hamels started. That’s a little remarkable given that two of the team’s other starters were Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay.
  • In 2011, the Phillies won 15 or more games in the starts made by four different pitchers (24-8 under Halladay, 18-13 Hamels, 22-10 Lee and 16-5 Worley). In 2012, the team only won 15 or more games in the starts made by Hamels.
  • The Phillies went 23-32 when Lee or Worley started. They were 38-15 in starts by that duo in 2011 (22-10 when Lee started and 16-5 when Worley started). In 2011, the Phillies had a better record in Worley’s 21 starts (16-5 for a .762 winning percentage) than they did in Halladay’s starts (24-8, .750).
  • Despite a nice year from Kendrick, the team was still just 11-14 in the games he started. The Phillies went 1-9 in the first ten games in which Kendrick appeared in 2012 — he started five of those games and appeared in relief in the other five. Over the last two season the Phils are 30-41 in games in which Kendrick appeared and 18-22 in the 40 games that he started.
  • 11-9 in the Blanton starts. The Blanton era ends in Philly with good results for the team. He made exactly 100 starts for the Phils between 2008 and 2012 with the Phillies going 58-42 in the games that he started. Since 2008, the Phillies have won about as many games that were started by Blanton (58) as they have games started by Halladay (60). Blanton has made 100 starts for the Phils over the last five seasons while Halladay has made 90. Hamels is the only pitcher who has started more games that the Phillies won over the past five season — they are 92-68 in games started by Hamels since the beginning of ’08.

The Phillies have signed 37-year-old right-handed pitcher Rodrigo Lopez to a minor league deal. Lopez made seven appearances with the Phillies in 2009, ending the year with a 5.70 ERA. He had a 3.09 ERA with a 1.37 ratio through his first four starts and took a 3.99 ERA into his final appearance of the season on August 9. Lopez allowed six runs in two-thirds of an inning in that game, which was also memorable because Shane Victorino was ejected for arguing balls and strikes while he was in center field with the other team batting. Lopez will try to make the team in spring training as an NRI.

This mailbag from the Phillies web site mentions Humberto Quintero and Zach Miner as top candidates to make the team to start the year among the non-roster invitees. I will be surprised if Miner makes the team to start the year and surprised if Qunitero does not. The same article suggests the possibility of bringing Delmon Young to the Phillies and mentions his “baggage” as one of the reasons that might be difficult. Another is he is a bad defensive outfielder and has had two bad years offensively in a row. The mailbag also guesses that Cloyd will start the year in Triple-A.

This article suggests that the Phillies could easily be in rebuilding mode by July. The Phils would have a real tough time rebuilding if they weren’t able to trade Howard, Utley and Halladay. I would guess they would have some difficulty trading Howard at this point unless they were willing to pay a whole lot of his salary.


The votes aren’t all counted yet, but I think we can agree that Adam Eaton was not the answer

Here’s the Baseball-Reference calculated combined WAR for pitchers who have made at least ten starts for the team over the past five seasons:

Pitcher GS # Relief appearances WAR WAR/GS
Halladay 90 0 17.6 .196
Lee 74 0 13.5 .182
Happ 30 16 5.0 .167
Oswalt 35 1 5.2 .149
Hamels 160 1 21.4 .134
Worley 46 7 4.4 .096
Moyer 77 5 2.7 .035
Blanton 100 5 2.5 .025
Myers 40 8 0.8 .020
Kendrick 103 41 1.7 .017
Eaton 19 2 -1.2 -.063

Important to remember is that the WAR calculation includes games pitched in relief. So, for example, the WAR for Kendrick over the last five seasons includes his 41 appearances out of the bullpen. His .017 for WAR/GS is his total WAR in all appearances divided by the number of games he started (not the total number of games in which he pitched).

The 11 pitchers above combined to make 774 of the 810 starts for the Phillies over the last five seasons. Not appearing on the list are guys who made fewer than ten starts, including Pedro Martinez (9), Chan Ho Park (7), Tyler Cloyd (6), Rodrigo Lopez (5), Antonio Bastardo (5), Raul Valdes (1), Andrew Carpenter (1), Nelson Figueroa (1) and BJ Rosenberg (1). Those 36 total starts plus the 774 for the 11 guys above gets you to 810.

Hamels is the guy who has made the most starts for the Phillies over the past five years with 160. And he’s been very good. After that, though, there are two guys in Blanton and Kendrick who have gotten a ton of starts over the past five seasons without being very good.

Kendrick is second in starts over the last five seasons with 103. His best year for WAR was 2007 (which doesn’t count for the table above as it was more than five years ago). In 2007, Kendrick made 20 appearances for the Phillies, all starts, going 10-4 with a 3.87 and putting up a WAR of 2.1. Kendrick was terrible in 2008 and finished the year with a -1.7 WAR. In the four years since his combined WAR has been just 3.4 — 3.4 + (-1.7) = 1.7, his mark for the past five years combined.

Blanton has made 105 appearances over the last five years for the Phillies, including 100 starts (more than anyone but Kendrick or Hamels). In the five seasons that Blanton pitched all or part of the year with the Phillies, he had a Baseball-Reference calculated WAR better than 0.1 only once. His best year with the Phillies was 2009 — he made 31 starts that year with a 4.05 ERA and a 1.32 ratio, posting a 2.4 WAR for the season. He had a -0.2 WAR in 29 appearances with the Phillies in 2010 and a -0.1 WAR in 21 appearances with them in 2012. He threw just 41 1/3 innings in 2011, all with the Phils, and put up a 0.0 WAR for that season.

The point here is that Blanton and Kendrick have pitched a lot for the Phillies over the past five years, making about as many starts (203) as Halladay, Lee and Worley (210). Overall, they’ve made about 25.1% of the starts for the Phillies over the past five seasons. And they haven’t been very good.

And while Blanton doesn’t have much of a chance to be not very good for the Phillies again in 2013, Kendrick does.

Gone also from the mix of the last five years are Happ and Oswalt. Both of those pitchers didn’t pitch a ton for the Phillies over the past five years, but put up good numbers overall in their time with the team.

Happ’s 4.83 ERA since he left the Phillies makes it easy to forget that he was great for the Phillies in 2009, going 12-4 with a 2.93 ERA and a 1.23 ratio in his 35 appearances (23 starts). He led the team in WAR for pitchers that year at 4.0. Hamels made 32 starts for the Phillies in ’09, finishing the year with a WAR of 1.7.

Oswalt threw to a 2.96 ERA in 36 appearances (35 starts) with the Phils between 2010 and 2011. He appeared in just 13 games for the Phillies in 2010 (12 starts), but managed to post a WAR of 3.2, third best on the staff behind Halladay and Hamels.

This suggests Josh Hamilton wants seven years, $175 million.

Amaro mentions Adam Morgan favorably in this article. Morgan is a 22-year-old lefty the Phillies took in the third round of the 2011 draft. He made 27 appearances between Clearwater and Reading in 2012, 26 of which were starts, throwing to a 3.35 ERA with a 1.11 ratio and striking out 169 in 158 2/3 innings.


Chasing Giants

The Phillies dropped two of three against the Giants this weekend, losing the first two games before getting a walkoff win on a Rollins single in the tenth yesterday afternoon.

In the series opener, Worley started the sixth with the score tied 1-1. Brandon Crawford hit a grand slam off of him in a five-run frame and the Giants went on to win 7-2. Hamels took a 5-4 lead into the eighth in game two, but San Francisco tied things up on a solo shot by Melky Cabrera and won it 5-4 in the tenth when Cabrera scored on Gregor Blanco’s bunt.

Yesterday Blanton pitched well, Mayberry homered twice and the Phils won 4-3 on walkoff single by Rollins.

After going 4-1 in their first five games to start the second half, the Phils are 1-3 over their last four.

The Phils lost the first two games in the set due mostly to shaky starting pitching. Hamels and Worley combined to allow 11 earned runs in 13 2/3 innings. Blanton was good yesterday, though, and the Phils got an outstanding performance from their wretched bullpen as their relievers combined to throw four scoreless innings in the game.

The Phillies are 42-54 on the year after beating the San Francisco Giants 4-3 in 12 innings yesterday. The Giants take the series two games to one. The Phillies are in last place in the NL East, 14 games out of first place.

Blanton got the start for the Phillies and went eight innings, allowing three runs on seven hits and a walk. Five of the hits went for extra-bases, three doubles and a walk. He struck out six.

Second good outing in a row for Blanton. He has allowed five runs over 16 innings his last two times out and gone eight innings in each start.

Nate Schierholtz was the first batter of the game and he hit a 2-0 pitch from Blanton out to right, putting the Giants up 1-0. Blanton struck out Ryan Theriot before Melky Cabrera doubled to left. Buster Posey grounded to third and Pablo Sandoval flew to center to leave Cabrera stranded.

The game was tied at 1-1 when Blanton set San Francisco down in order in the second. He struck out Angel Pagan, got Brandon Crawford on a ground ball to first and Brandon Belt on a fly ball to right.

Blanton got pitcher Barry Zito and Schierholtz and Theriot behind him in a 1-2-3 third.

Posey singled with one out in the fourth and scored when Sandoval followed with a double to center, putting the Giants up 2-1. Pagan and Crawford both grounded out to leave Sandoval stranded.

It was 2-2 when Blanton set San Francisco down in order in the fifth and again in the sixth.

Pagan singled with one out in the seventh, but was caught stealing before Crawford flew to center for the third out.

Blanton got the first two hitters in the eighth with the Phils up 3-2 — Gregor Blanco hit for Zito and struck out swinging for the second out after Belt grounded to short for the first out. Schierholtz was next, though, and he homered again, hitting a 2-1 pitch out to left to put the Giants back up at 3-2. Theriot followed that with a double and Blanton walked Theriot intentionally. Posey flew to right on a running basket catch by Pence on the warning track to leave both runners stranded.

Bastardo stuck out the side in a 1-2-3 ninth.

Bastardo was pitching for the second day in a row after getting one out in game two of the set. He’s allowed one hit while striking out six in three scoreless innings over his last five appearances, dropping his ERA on the year from 5.34 to 4.83.

Horst struck out the lefty Belt for the first out in the tenth. Righty Justin Christian hit for the pitcher Sergio Romo and singled to center. The lefty Schierholtz flew to Pence for the second out and Kendrick took over to face the righty Theriot. Christian stole second before Theriot fouled out to Ruiz to end the frame.

Horst has a 1.12 ERA and a 1.00 ratio after nine appearances.

Kendrick walked Sandoval with two outs in the eleventh. Pagan flew to left to leave him stranded.

Crawford doubled to center off of Kendrick to start the twelfth. Kendrick struck out Belt on a bunch of pitches off the plate for the first out. Switch-hitter Emmanuel Burriss hit for the pitcher Clay Hensley and Kendrick struck him out on a bunch of pitches off the plate for the second. Kendrick walked the lefty home run machine Schierholtz intentionally to put two men on for Theriot. Theriot flew to left to leave them both stranded.

Another outstanding bullpen performance from Kendrick. His last start was on July 6. Since then he has appeared four times in relief and thrown 5 2/3 scoreless innings. That’s an enormous boost for a terrible bullpen.

Overall the pen went four scoreless innings in the game, allowing two hits and two walks while striking out six. Kendrick threw 40 pitches, so don’t expect to see him anytime soon. Bastardo threw 13 pitches in the game and has thrown two days in a row. Horst threw 12 pitches.

The Phillies lineup against lefty Barry Zito went (1) Rollins (2) Victorino (3) Utley (4) Howard (5) Pence (6) Polanco (7) Mayberry (8) Kratz. Utley and Howard both in the lineup against the lefty. Mayberry in lefty and Kratz catching the day game for Ruiz.

Down 1-0 in the bottom of the first, Victorino walked with one out and scored on a triple to right center from Utley. 1-1. Howard was hit by a pitch, but Pence grounded into a double-play to end the inning.

Both lefties reach base against Zito in the frame. Phils don’t score again after putting a man on third with one out.

The Phils went in order in the second.

Blanton and Rollins singled back-to-back to start the third, putting runners on first and second with nobody out. Victorino flew to center for the first out. Utley grounded to first with Rollins forced at second for the second. Utley stole second before Howard struck out swinging to leave the runners on second and third.

No run for the Phils after putting two men on with nobody out to start the inning.

Down 2-1, Pence and Polanco went down to start the fourth before Mayberry hit a 3-2 pitch out to left. 2-2. Kratz flew to left to set the Phillies down.

The Phils went in order in the fifth.

Pence reached on a throwing error by Sandoval with two outs in the sixth. Polanco grounded to third for the third out.

Mayberry hit the first pitch he saw in the seventh inning out to left for his second home run of the day, putting the Phillies up 3-2. The Phils went in order behind him.

Second multi-homer game of Mayberry’s career. The other was July 6, 2011.

Lefty Javier Lopez started the bottom of the eighth with the game tied at 3-3. Victorino led off with a single, but Utley hit into a double-play behind him. Howard struck out swinging for the third out.

Polanco singled off of righty Sergio Romo with one out in the ninth. Mayberry struck out for the second out. Ruiz hit for Kratz and flew to right for the third.

Lefty Jeremy Affeldt set the Phillies down in order in the tenth. Nix, double-switched into the game in the top of the inning, struck out swinging for the first out.

First at-bat for Nix since May 9. His injury hurt the Phillies, forcing Mayberry and Wigginton to get way more at-bats against righties than they should have. Mayberry is hitting 208/272/272 against righties for the year in 136 plate appearances. Wigginton 247/293/361 in 181. That’s really not what you’re looking for from first basemen or corner outfielders.

Pence singled off of Affeldt with two outs in the eleventh. Righty Clay Hensley came in to pitch to Polanco and got him on a ground ball to third for the third out.

Righty Brad Penny started the twelfth for the Giants. Wigginton hit for Kendrick and hammered a ball to right, but Schierholtz took it running into the wall in right for the first out. Ruiz followed that with a walk and moved to third when Nix singled into right. Rollins was next and lined a single into center, scoring Ruiz to give the Phils a 4-3 win.

Rollins was 2-for-6 with an RBI in the game. 3-for-14 with a walk and three singles in the series. 256/313/409 for the year. Hitters batting #1 in the lineup for the Phillies have on-based .318 for the season, which is ninth-best in the NL.

Victorino 1-for-4 with a walk. 3-for-12 with a walk in the series. 253/317/387 for the season.

Utley 1-for-5 with a triple and an RBI. 3-for-12 with a triple and a home run in the set. On-basing .231 so far against lefties (in 26 plate appearances). 231/292/400 in 72 plate appearances for the year.

Howard 0-for-4 and struck out three times. 2-for-11 with a walk and two home runs in the series. 182/325/485 in 40 plate appearances.

Pence 1-for-5 with a strikeout. 1-for-12 with a walk in the series. 5-for-his-last-39 (.128). 271/338/457 for the season.

Polanco 1-for-5 to drop his average to .255 on the year. 2-for-9 with a walk and a double in the series. 255/300/328 for the season. 6-for-his-last-49 (.122) with three walks and a double. 211/265/322 against lefties for the season.

Mayberry 2-for-4 with two solo home runs. 2-for-5 in the series. 237/274/397 on the year. Seven of his eight home runs have come against lefties and about 43% of his plate appearances. 208/272/272 against righties and 273/277/556 against lefties. Among the 95 NL players with 75 plate appearances against lefties for the season, Mayberry’s isolated power of .283 is ninth-best and tops among the Phillies.

Kratz was 0-for-3 and struck out twice. 2-for-10 on the year with two home runs.

Halladay (4-5, 3.96) faces lefty Randy Wolf (3-6, 5.60) tonight. Halladay allowed two runs in five innings against the Dodgers in his first start since returning from the DL. Righties are hitting 330/379/533 against Wolf for the season.


Mighty Joe won

You shouldn’t count on winning when you score three runs, especially when you have just about the worst bullpen in the National League, but the Phillies figured out how to get it done last night and beat the Dodgers 3-2 behind a strong effort from Joe Blanton.

Home runs from Rollins and Howard helped the Phils to an early 3-0 lead. Blanton mowed LA down through the first five innings before the Dodgers got a run in the sixth and another in the seventh. Blanton came back to throw a 1-2-3 eighth and Papelbon kept LA off the board in the ninth.

Third straight win for the Phillies. They have now gotten a quality start in five straight games and the starters have thrown to a 2.60 ERA in those games. Prior to this stretch they had not gotten more than two quality starts in a row since May 18.

The game featured the first home run of the year for Ryan Howard, who’s still just 3-for-20 on the season. Shane Victorino, miserable at the plate this year, delivered with the bat for the third straight day, going 3-for-4 with another triple. He’s 6-for-12 over the last three games and he and Rollins are providing suddenly providing a spark at the top of the lineup for a Phillies team desperate for wins.

The Phillies are 40-51 on the year after beating the LA Dodgers 3-2 last night. They have won three in a row and remain in last place in the NL East, 13 games behind the first place Nationals.

Blanton got the start for the Phillies and went eight innings, allowing two runs on six hits, five singles and a double. He didn’t walk a batter and struck out seven. Three of his last four starts have been pretty good.

He threw a 1-2-3 first.

Up 1-0, he set the Dodgers down in order in the second.

The Phillies were up 2-0 when he started the third. Blanton got Luis Cruz on a ground ball to short for the first out before AJ Ellis singled to left on a ball deflected by Rollins. The pitcher Nathan Eovaldi was next and tried to bunt, but struck out looking at a 1-2 pitch for the second out. Jerry Hairston lined to first to end the inning.

The Phils led 3-0 when Blanton started the fourth. Mark Ellis led off and singled into center. Matt Kemp flew to center for the first out before Andre Ethier moved Ellis up to third with a single to right. Juan Rivera was next and he hit a ground ball to third. Polanco fielded and threw home where Ruiz tagged out Ellis for the second out. With men on first and second and two down, Blanton struck James Loney out looking 2-2 to end the inning.

Blanton keeps LA off the board after they put runners on the corners with one out. Strikes out the lefty Loney with two men on to end the inning.

Blanton set the Dodgers down in order. Righty Juan Uribe hit for the pitcher Eovaldi and flew to center for the third out.

Hairston doubled to center to start the sixth. Ellis was next and hit a ball to Utley. Utley fielded and threw to first, but Howard didn’t handle the throw for an error that left LA with runners on first and third and nobody out. Kemp was next and he grounded into a double-play. Hairston scored from third to cut the lead to 3-1. Blanton got Ethier on a fly ball to right to set LA down.

Very strange error on Howard. The ball was chopped in-between first and second. Utley moved right to get the ball and threw to first in the air, but Howard just didn’t catch it. The ball seemed to hang between his glove and wrist for a split second and fell to the ground.

Rivera and Loney singled back-to-back to start the seventh, putting runners on first and second with nobody out. Cruz hit a ball handled by Blanton and Blanton threw to second to force Loney for the first out. With runners on first and third, Blanton struck Ellis out swinging 1-2 for the second out. Lefty Bobby Abreu hit for the pitcher Tolleson and Blanton’s first pitch to Abreu was in the first and through Ruiz’s legs. Rivera scored from third, cutting the lead to 3-2, and Cruz took second. Blanton flew to center to leave Cruz at second.

Second defensive misplay for the Phils in two innings. Howard doesn’t catch the throw from Utley in the sixth and the ball goes through Ruiz with a runner on third. Both runs were earned, but Blanton did a nice job working around both of the miscues.

Blanton threw a 1-2-3 eighth with a one-run lead.

He threw 110 pitches in the game, including 15 in the bottom of the eighth. The bottom of the eighth ended with Blanton striking Kemp out swinging 1-2. If you see Blanton facing Matt Kemp in a one-run game in the eighth inning when he’s already thrown 105 pitches in the game it’s probably a good sign there’s not a whole lot of faith in the bullpen.

Papelbon started the ninth. Rivera singled with one out and Tony Gwynn ran for him at first. Loney grounded to second for the second out with Gwynn moving up to second. The lefty Adam Kennedy hit for the righty Cruz and Gwynn stole third. Kennedy got ahead in the count, but popped a 2-0 pitch up to Utley to end the game.

Third appearance in a row for Papelbon in which he has not been charged with a run coming off a string where he allowed runs in four of five outings. He was also coming off of an outing on Saturday where he went 1 2/3 innings. He threw 18 pitches last night.

The Phillies lineup against righty Nathan Eovaldi went (1) Rollins (2) Victorino (3) Utley (4) Howard (5) Ruiz (6) Pence (7) Pierre (8) Polanco. Pierre hits seventh against the righty with Victorino hitting second despite miserable numbers against righties. Polanco at third against the righty with the lefty Fontenot on the bench.

Victorino reached on an error by the shortstop Cruz with one out in the top of the first, but Utley hit into a double-play behind him.

Ruiz doubled to left with one out in the second. Pence struck out for the second out before Pierre singled to right center, scoring Ruiz to put the Phils up 1-0. Polanco grounded to short for the third out.

With one out in the second, Rollins hit a 3-2 pitch out to right. 2-0. Victorino followed with a single and moved up to second when Utley grounded out for the second out. Eovaldi delivered a 2-2 pitch to Howard, which was taken for ball three, but Ellis threw to second where Victorino was way off base between second and third and tagged out to set the Phillies down.

Howard hit the first pitch of the fourth inning out to left, putting the Phils up 3-0. Ruiz and Pence walked back-to-back, putting two men on for Pierre. Pierre flew to Ethier at the wall in right and Polanco hit into a double-play behind him.

Good demo of why you don’t want to get picked off of second base with Howard at the plate. Phils didn’t have a lot of runs to give away in this one.

Victorino tripled to left with two outs in the fifth, but Utley lined out to first behind him.

Third triple for Victorino in three games. He will lead the league in triples if he continues at this pace. Tied for sixth right now. Dexter Fowler leads the NL with nine.

Righty Shawn Tolleson set the Phillies down in order in the sixth. The lead was cut to 3-1 when Tolleson set the Phils down in order in the seventh.

It was 3-2 when lefty Scott Elbert walked Rollins to start the eighth. Victorino moved Rollins up to second with a single. Utley popped to short for the first out and Howard hit into a double-play behind him.

Nothing for the Phils after putting men on first and second with nobody out.

Righty Ronald Belisario struck out Ruiz, Pence and Mayberry in order in the ninth.

Mayberry is hitting 205/265/270 in 132 plate appearances against righties for the year.

Rollins was 1-for-3 with a walk and a home run. 10-for-his-last-30 with four walks and six extra-base hits. 304/357/585 over his last 185 plate appearances, which started on May 29. Coming into the game on May 29, he was hitting 230/286/286 on the year over his first 215 plate appearances.

Victorino 3-for-4 with a triple. 6-for-12 with a walk, a double and three triples over the last three games.

Utley was 0-for-4 and left five men on base. He’s 6-for-his-last-33 (.182) with no walks.

Howard 1-for-4 with a home run and an error. 3-for-20 on the year.

Ruiz 1-for-3 with a walk and a double. 8-for-his-last-19 with three doubles and a home run. He’s on-basing .413 for the year, but his walk rate is way down. Coming into the season he had walked in about 11.1% of his plate appearances for his career. This season he has walked in about 5.6% of them. If he’s going to keep slugging .600 (okay, .596) I think it’s a fine plan.

Pence was 0-for-3 with a walk and struck out three times. He’s 1-for-his-last-18 with nine strikeouts.

Pierre 1-for-3 with an RBI. He also hit a ball to the wall in right in the fourth. He’s 4-for-his-last-6.

Polanco 0-for-3 and left three men on base. He’s 3-for-his-last-32 (.094) with a walk and three singles.

Halladay (4-5, 3.98) returns tonight against a Dodger pitcher TBD. Halladay threw to a 1.95 ERA over his five April starts, then went 1-3 with a 6.11 ERA in May as opponents hit .312 against him. Righty John Ely (NR) is a popular guess for the LA pitcher. Ely made five appearances for the Dodgers in 2011, including one start. 8-6 with a 3.22 ERA and a 1.18 ratio in the PCL in 18 starts in 2012.


The five-year disengagement

First, a disclaimer. Today’s post is about Game Score. I understand Game Score isn’t a great stat for a whole lot of reasons. That said, I think we can use Game Score to help illustrate part of what’s wrong with the Phillies so far in 2012.

One day, maybe not too long from now, people are going to remember back fondly to the 2008 Phillies and how Halladay and Lee and the starting rotation led the Phils to World Series glory. That will be wrong, of course. Halladay and Lee weren’t on the 2008 Phillies and the rotation wasn’t very good at all. Myers, Kendrick and Eaton combined to make 79 starts for the Phillies in which they threw to a 5.14 ERA with a 1.51 ratio.

The relievers were the part of the 2008 team that dominated. The offense was very good, but the bullpen was great. Phillie relievers threw to a 3.22 ERA in 2008, the best mark in the league.

In 2012, the Phillies have played 81 games and won 36 of them. Looking at those 81 games, though, and using Game Score as the measure, in 46 of them the combination of the Phillies starting pitcher and the Phillies offense was better than the combination of the other team’s starting pitcher and their offense.

The Start Log tracks the Game Score of the starting pitcher for the Phillies for each game as well as the Game Score for the Phillies’s opponent. It also tracks, for each game, whether the Game Score for the Phillies starting pitcher was better or worse than the Game Score for the starting pitcher of their opponent. Here’s the team’s actual record in 2008 and in 2012 and the number of games the Game Score for their starting pitcher was better or worse than the Game Score of their opponent.

Year Actual record Game Score better/worse than opponent +/-
2008 92-70 77-85 +15
2012 36-45 46-35 -10

So, in 2008, the Phillies actually went 92-70. In those 162 games, though, the Game Score of their starting pitcher was better than the game score of their opponent just 77 times.

So far in 2012, the Game Score of the starting pitcher for the Phillies have been better than the Game Score of the opponent’s starting pitcher in 46 of 81 games.

The Phillies haven’t won 46 games this year or even come close. In 2008, they won 15 games more (92 for the year) than the number of games in which the Game Score for their starting pitcher was better than the Game Score for the other team’s starting pitcher. In 2012, they have won ten fewer games than the number of games in which the Game Score of their starting pitcher was better than the Game Score of the other team’s starting pitcher.

So if the Phillies had just won the game in which their offense and starting pitcher combined to be better than the other team’s offense and starting pitcher (at least according to Game Score), they would be 46-35 right now instead of 36-45.

They didn’t.

There have been three games this season that the Phillies won when the Game Score of their starting pitcher was better than the Game Score of the other team’s starting pitcher. There have been 13 games in which the Game Score of the Phillies starting pitcher was better than the Game Score of the other team’s pitcher and the Phillies lost.

Here are the three games that they won despite a worse game score:

  • May 1: Phillies 4, Atlanta 2. Hamels Game Score 56, Brandon Beachy’s Game Score 61. The Phils go in to the top of the eighth tied 2-2 and score two runs off of Jonny Venters.
  • May 24: Phillies 10, St Louis 9. Blanton 19, Westbrook 21. Blanton and Westbrook were both terrible in the game, but Blanton a little worse according to Game Score. The Phils scored four runs charged to the St Louis bullpen after Westbrook left while the Cardinals scored just two runs in 4 2/3 innings off of the Phillies pen after Blanton left.
  • May 30: Phillies 10, Mets 6. Lee 51, Dillon Gee 56. Lee allows three runs over six innings while Gee allows two runs over 6 2/3. Both pens are terrible in the game, but the Phillies outscore the Mets 7-3 after the end of the seventh inning.
  • That’s the complete list of games so far in 2012 when the Game Score of the other teams starting pitcher has been better than the Game Score of the pitcher for the Phillies and the Phillies have won the game anyway.

    Here’s the list of the games the Phillies have lost despite a better Game Score from their starter. This one’s longer (13). For one thing it happened in two of the first three games of the season:

  • April 7: Pittsburgh 2, Phillies 1 (ten innings). Lee 66, Jeff Karstens 59. Lee and Karstens both pitch well. The game goes to extra-innings and the Pirates win it with a run off of Blanton on a double, a hit batter and a single.
  • April 8: Pittsburgh 5, Phillies 4. Worley 62, James McDonald 57. Worley and McDonald both pitch well with Worley a little better. Both starters are gone after six innings with the Phils up 2-1. The Phillies score two off of the Pirate pen in the seventh to go up 4-1, but two runs off of Stutes in the bottom of the inning cut the lead to 4-3. Kendrick and Bastardo combine to allow a run in the bottom of the eighth, with Matt Hague singling off of Bastardo to drive in Andrew McCutchen and tie the game at 4-4. Herndon allows a leadoff double to Casey McGehee to start the bottom of the ninth and the Pirates win the game on a walkoff single by McCutchen off of Herndon.
  • After dropping two in a row over the first three games of the season, it didn’t happen again until early May.

  • May 7: Mets 5, Phillies 2. Halladay 65, Niese 52. Halladay pitches way better than Niese, allowing two runs over seven innings while Niese allows two runs over five. The teams go into the ninth inning with the score tied at 2-2 and Papelbon allows a three-run homer to Jordany Valdespin.
  • May 8: Very next day. Mets 7, Phillies 4. Blanton 52, Batista 39. Blanton leaves in the seventh with the Phils up 4-2, one out and runners on first and second. Qualls allows a two-run single with both runs charged to Blanton (4-4) and Bastardo allows another RBI-single, which puts the Mets up 5-4. Schwimer is charged with two runs in the top of the ninth.
  • May 9: Third day in a row. Mets 10, Phillies 6. Lee 59, Gee 37. Lee outpitches Gee and leaves up 4-2 after six innings. Kendrick allows three runs in the seventh (down 5-4) and comes back to start the eighth for reasons unknown. He’s charged with two more in the eighth, one of which scores on a two-run shot by Ike Davis off of Contreras. Contreras is charged with two more runs in the seventh and Sanches allows a solo homer in the ninth.
  • May 12: Padres 2, Phillies 1. Halladay 64, Edinson Volquez 59. Bullpen didn’t blow anything in this one. Halladay allowed two runs over seven innings while striking out ten, giving him a better Game Score than Volquez, who allowed a run over six innings.
  • June 5: Dodgers 2, Phillies 1. Lee 70, Chad Billingsley 63. Blame this one on Manuel, not Game Score or the pen. Lee and Billingsley are both very good. Lee starts the eighth with a 1-0 and allows hits to four of the first five men he faces, the last of which is a two-run double to Elian Herrera on his 122nd pitch of the game.
  • June 7: Dodgers 8, Phillies 3. Hamels 51, Aaron Harang 46. Dodgers lead 4-3 after six. Phillies don’t score in the last three innings. Qualls faces six men in the ninth. One reaches on an error and the other five get hits as he is charged with four runs in a third of an inning.
  • June 9: Baltimore 6, Phillies 4. Worley 62, Tommy Hunter 51. All three runs Worley allows over six innings are unearned. Thome singles home Pierre in the top of the eighth to tie the game at 4-4. BJ Rosenberg makes his major league debut in the bottom of the twelfth and faces two batters, walking Chris Davis before giving up a walkoff homer to Adam Jones.
  • June 10: Baltimore 5, Phillies 4. Lee 48, Hammel 43. Hammel and Lee both allow four runs over six innings. Savery starts the bottom of the tenth. Jones reaches on an error by Wigginton with one out before Matt Wieters’s walkoff double wins the game for Baltimore.
  • June 15: Toronto 3, Phillies 0. Worley 62, Drew Hutchison 52. Toronto starter Hutchison has to leave after two-thirds of an inning (Game Score is virtually worthless in games where a starter leaves very early due to injury). Worley goes seven innings and allows three runs, all three of which are unearned. The Toronto bullpen throws 8 1/3 scoreless innings.
  • June 21: Colorado 4, Phillies 1. Worley 61, Jeff Francis 54. Worley starts the seventh with a 1-0 lead and allows a two-run homer to Chris Nelson with two outs. Schwimer allows a two-run homer to Wilin Rosario in the ninth.
  • June 24: Tampa Bay 3, Phillies 2. Hamels 75, Price 70. Hamels throws seven shutout innings and Bastardo starts the eighth up 1-0. Bastardo walks two of the first three men he faces before giving up a three-run homer to Carlos Pena. The Phils score a run on three hits in the bottom of the eighth but lose by a run.
  • For nine of those 13 I would say the pen at least a major contributor to the loss if not the primary cause (4/7, 4/8, 5/7, 5/8, 5/9, 6/7, 6/9, 6/10 and 6/24).

    More generally, whether it is a failure by their offense or a failure by their bullpen, the Phillies are not winning when they get solid starting pitching.

    Here are the records the Phillies have put up in games where their starter recorded a Game Score of 51-70 over the last six years:

    Year Record Winning PCT % of games
    2012 22-19 .537 50.6
    2011 45-25 .643 43.2
    2010 47-20 .701 41.4
    2009 42-21 .667 38.9
    2008 47-19 .712 40.7
    2007 41-18 .695 36.4

    A higher percentage of the games in that 51-70 window for the Phillies this year with worse results. The Phils are 22-19 (.537) in 2012 in games in that window. Coming into the 2012 season they were 222-103 (.683) in games where their starter had a Game Score in that range.

    The next update to Philliesflow won’t be until Thursday.


Half bad

The Phillies have played half their season. Let’s hope it’s the bad half, cause they looked absolutely awful this weekend as they were swept by the Marlins.

After 81 games, the Phils are on pace to 72-90 for the season and win 30 games less than they won in 2011.

Blanton pitched okay yesterday in game three of the series, but Bastardo allowed a two-run homer in the eighth that opened up a one-run game, which the Marlins went on to win 5-2.

The Phillies are 36-45 on the year after losing to the Miami Marlins 5-2 last night. The Marlins sweep the three-game series. The Phils are nine games under .500 for the first time since July 25, 2006. They are 11 games out of first place and have lost five in a row.

Blanton got the start for the Phillies and went six innings, allowing three runs on six hits and two walks. Three of the hits went for extra-bases, two doubles and a home run. Blanton has been un-terrible over his last two starts, allowing five earned runs over 13 innings (3.46 ERA and a 1.23 ratio). Still way to many home runs — he’s allowed 17 over his last 55 1/3 innings. The Phillies have won four of the last five games he’s started.

Up 1-0, he set the Marlins down in order in the bottom of the first.

Logan Morrison singled to right to start the second. Justin Ruggiano was next and singled to left, but Pierre threw Morrison out at third for the first out. Greg Dobbs grounded to Blanton for the second out with Ruggiano moving up to second. Omar Infante was the next batter for Miami and he doubled to left, scoring Ruggiano to tie the game at 1-1 with two down and a runner on second. John Buck followed with a double to right. Infante scored. 2-1. The pitcher Ricky Nolasco flew to center to end the inning.

Again, Blanton isn’t walking anyone but he is giving up way too many hits. No walks but four hits in the frame gets the Fish two runs. Would have been more without the throw by Pierre. Buck doubles home the second run in front of the pitcher with first base empty.

Blanton got the first two in the third before Giancarlo homered to right to extend the lead to 3-1. Blanton walked Morrison before striking out Ruggiano to end the inning.

At least he walked someone.

Dobbs led off the fourth with a single, but Blanton struck out Infante, Buck and Nolasco in a row behind him.

Blanton struck out Hanley Ramirez and Stanton in a 1-2-3 fifth.

It was 3-2 when he started the sixth. He walked Ruggiano with one out, Blanton struck Dobbs out swinging for the second out and Ruggiano was caught stealing for the third.

Schwimer threw a 1-2-3 seventh with the Phils still down a run. Righty Austin Kearns hit for Nolasco and struck out for the third out.

Over his last nine appearances, Schwimer has been charged with one earned run over 11 innings (0.82 ERA with a 1.00 ratio). Yesterday he was throwing for the second straight day.

Bastardo started the eighth. He walked Reyes. Reyes stole second before Ramirez homered to center, extending the Miami lead to 5-2. Bastardo got the next three, striking out Stanton and Ruggiano for two of the outs.

Bastardo has a 9.45 ERA and a 2.25 ratio over his last seven appearances.

Two innings for the pen in which they allow two runs on a hit and a walk. With the off day today, everyone should be ready tomorrow.

The Phillies lineup against righty Ricky Nolasco went (1) Rollins (2) Pierre (3) Pence (4) Ruiz (5) Victorino (6) Polanco (7) Wigginton (8) Fontenot. Pierre in left against the righty and the lefty Fontenot at second. Victorino continues to play center against righties despite a 230/299/317 line against them for the season coming into the game. I’d guess we might see the lefty Pridie get some chances in center against righties before too long. Wigginton plays first and he came into the game on-basing .307 and slugging .364 against righties.

Pierre tripled to right with one out in the top of the first. The Marlins played the infield back, but when Pence grounded to third, Ramirez fielded and threw home. He would have had Pierre with a better throw, but it was high and on the first base side of the plate. Pierre slid in safe to put the Phils up 1-0 with Pence safe at first. Ruiz hit into a double-play to set the Phillies down.

The Phils went in order in the second.

Down 2-1 they went in order in the third.

They were down 3-1 when they hit in the fourth. Pence and Ruiz both struck out as the Phils went in order.

Victorino singled to right to start the fifth. Polanco and Wigginton both popped out before Fontenot moved him to third with a single to right. Blanton stuck out swinging to leave both runners stranded.

Rollins struck out to start the sixth, but Pierre bunted for a single up the first base line behind him. Pence was next and rocketed a single into left, moving Pierre up to second and putting two men on for Ruiz. Ruiz flew to shallow center for the second out with the runners holding. The runners moved up to second and third on a wild pitch before a 2-1 pitch skipped through Buck’s legs, allowing both runners to advance again. Pierre scored and the Miami lead was cut to 3-2. Victorino grounded to first 3-2 to leave Pence at third.

Fontenot reached on an error by Reyes with two outs in the seventh. Pridie hit for Blanton, making his debut with the Phillies, and flew to left for the third out.

Lefty Mike Dunn started the eighth for the Marlins and got Rollins on a fly ball to center for the first out. Mayberry hit for Pierre. Righty Steve Cishek came in to pitch to Mayberry and Mayberry singled to center. Pence struck out for the second out before Ruiz singled to left, moving Mayberry up to second. Victorino flew to center to leave both runners stranded.

Righty Health Bell got Polanco, Wigginton and Fontenot in order in the ninth.

Rollins was 0-for-4 in the game and 0-for-11 in the series. He’s hitting 259/313/404 for the season.

Pierre was 2-for-3 with a triple. He was 3-for-7 with a triple in the series. 318/357/390 for the year.

Pence 1-for-4 with an RBI and two strikeouts in the game and 6-for-12 with two home runs in the series. He’s 14-for-his-last-35 with five walks, three doubles, a triple and three home runs (400/475/800). 285/350/495 for the year.

Ruiz 1-for-4 with a strikeout. 3-for-12 with two doubles in the set. 356/420/579 for the year.

Victorino was 1-for-4 in the game and 3-for-11 in the series. He’s hitting a miserable 254/322/386 for the season. 231/298/315 against right-handed pitching for the season.

Polanco 0-for-4 yesterday and 2-for-12 with two singles in the series. June was his best month of the year — he hit 284/361/392. 273/317/353 for the season.

Wigginton was 0-for-4 in the game and 0-for-6 in the series. 167/219/283 over his last 64 plate appearances. 243/312/387 for the year. 252/300/352 against right-handed pitching in 170 plate appearances against righties for the year.

Fontenot was 1-for-4 with a single yesterday and 1-for-4 in the series. He’s 2-for-his-last-12 with three singles. 315/359/370 over 78 plate appearances for the year.

The Phillies don’t play today. Mets tomorrow night.


  • Calender

    July 2014
    M T W T F S S
    « Apr    
     123456
    78910111213
    14151617181920
    21222324252627
    28293031  
  • Online Marketing
    Add blog to our blog directory.



    Web Directory

    Blogging Fusion Blog Directory

  • Copyright © 1996-2010 Philliesflow.com. All rights reserved.
    iDream theme by Templates Next | Powered by WordPress