Tag: Jeremy Slayden

Wake me up when we hit 2001 again

In Sunday night’s post I pointed out that Chan Ho Park’s career numbers look very good compared to the career numbers for other pitchers likely to get starts for the Phillies in 2008. Looking at the group of Hamels, Moyer, Myers, Blanton, Kendrick, Lopez and Happ, the .248 that opposing hitters have hit against Park is second-best behind only Hamels (.233). The .402 that opposing hitters have slugged against him is also better than anyone else in the group except for Hamels — opponents have slugged .401 against Hamels so far.

Park has walked too many hitters over his career, about 4.18 per nine innings. Of the group of eight pitchers, the .340 that opposing batters has on-based against Park is worse than anyone but Kendrick (opponents have on-based .352 against Kendrick). Of the eight pitchers discussed on Sunday, Park also has the biggest difference between batting average and on-base percentage he has allowed.

Still, even with the high on-base percentage, the low average and low slugging percentage make Park’s career numbers impressive overall. The problem for Park is that he’s pretty old, and with the exception of an encouraging year in relief for the Dodgers in 2008, he’s been hit hard for a while now.

Park was very good in 2000, going 18-10 with a 3.27 ERA and a 1.31 ratio for the Dodgers. He followed it up with a 2001 in which he went 15-11 with a 3.50 ERA and dropped his ratio down to 1.17 for Los Angeles. Park had also been very good in 1997, pitching to a 3.87 ERA with a 1.14 ratio for the Dodgers. Since 2001, though, his numbers have just been ugly.

From between 1994-2001, Park threw to a 3.80 ERA with a 1.32 ratio in 1183 2/3 innings. From 2002 through 2008, he’s put up a 5.31 ERA and a 1.54 ratio in 662 1/3 innings.

He’s actually walked batters at a lower rate since 2001. But the hits he’s allowed are way up and his strikeouts are way down:

chphbbso.jpg

And here’s what opposing hitters have done against him:

chpaoslg.jpg

Since 2001, opposing hitters have hit 279/364/454 against Park. That’s an OPS of .819, which is close to the .821 opponents have hit against Kendrick over his career. Kendrick’s .821 was the worst mark of the group of eight from Sunday’s post.

Yesterday the Phils fell to the Reds, losing 8-4 to drop to 4-6 in spring training.

Hamels got the start for the Phils and allowed a pair of runs over 2 2/3 innings. Justin Lehr was charged with four runs in the seventh. Robert Mosebach struck out two in a perfect eighth.

Jenkins and Howard hit solo homers. Jason Donald is doing his best to steal John Mayberry’s impossible-to-ignore status. Donald went 3-for-4 with three singles, pushing his spring average to .320.

Panama and Carlos Ruiz have been eliminated from the World Baseball Classic, outscored 16-0 in two games by Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic. Ruiz went 2-for-5 with a walk in the tournament.

Team USA, 2-0, will play Italy or Venezuela on Wednesday. Rollins 3-for-5 in the first two games, Victorino 2-for-5.

Australia plays Cuba tonight. Brad Harman went 3-for-5 in as they beat Mexico 17-7 in game one.

JC Romero got the win for Puerto Rico yesterday as they beat the Netherlands 3-1. Romero allowed a hit in 1 1/3 innings. Puerto Rico is 2-0 and will play the Netherlands or Dominican Republic tomorrow night.

Canada has been eliminated with a 6-2 loss to Italy. Stairs went 0-for-6 with a walk and two strikeouts in two games.

The Phillies have reassigned seven players to minor league camp, most notably Jeremy Slayden.

The article linked above also says that Durbin and Feliz could both see action again very soon, perhaps tomorrow. Coste played yesterday and went 0-for-1.

This has Amaro saying that if things go well over the next few days, Utley could get into some games.

The Phillies don’t play today. Tomorrow they face the Braves with Kyle Kendrick scheduled to pitch.


Extra! Extra! Bases!

Yesterday I wrote that in 2008, Chad Durbin allowed extra-base hits at a rate far lower than many of the other pitchers on the team. He also allowed extra-base hits at a rate far lower than he has over his career.

  PA % H % BB % SO % XBH
Durbin ’08 365 22.2 9.6 17.3 4.7
Durbin rest
of career
2,099 25.5 9.2 12.6 8.9

Durbin had the best year of his career in ’08. He didn’t do it by cutting down his walks — he walked batters more regularly than he has over the rest of his career. He did allow fewer hits and strike out batters more regularly, but the most dramatic change in the four categories is the improvement in preventing extra-base hits in ’08.

Coming into 2008, Durbin had allowed 187 extra-base hits in 2,099 plate appearances — that’s one every 11.22 plate appearances. In 2008 he allowed 17 extra-base hits in 365 plate appearances, which is one every 21.47 plate appearances.

In his work as a reliever before 2008, Durbin had also allowed extra-base hits at a rate that was higher than what he did last year and that was very similar to his career numbers overall coming into ’08. Prior to last season, he had faced 299 hitters as a relief pitcher and allowed 26 extra-base hits, or one every 11.50 plate appearances.

The Phillies would have had a lot of trouble winning the division last year without Durbin’s contribution. And they’re counting on him to come up big again this season. I think there’s two things to worry about, though. One is that Durbin’s 2008 was just by far his best year and even including 2008 he still has a career 5.29 ERA and a 1.53 ratio. The other is that Durbin had two dramatically different halves in ’08, a great first half in which he threw to a 1.89 ERA and a 1.20 ratio and a weaker second half in which he threw to a 4.33 ERA with a 1.50 ratio.

If you think the secret to Durbin’s success in the future could be preventing extra-base hits, it surely couldn’t hurt. There’s a lot more too it than that, though, as Durbin himself helped demonstrate with his second half last season. In the second half of 2008, when he was less effective, he still wasn’t being hurt by the extra-base hit. He gave up hits and walks at a higher rate than in the first half, and struck a lot fewer people out, but the rate at which he gave up extra-base hits stayed about the same:

  PA % H % BB % SO % XBH
1st half ’08 214 20.6 8.9 20.1 4.7
2nd half ’08 151 24.5 10.6 13.2 4.6

Opponents hit .282 against Durbin the second half (.234 in the first half) and on-based .367 (.310). So while the fact that they slugged just .382 (.314) against him in the second half helped avoid a complete disaster, it wasn’t enough to make his numbers after the break nearly as impressive as they had been before the break.

The Phils beat Team Canada yesterday, winning 9-2.

Hamels made his spring debut and went two scoreless innings, allowing two singles and a walk. Dave Borkowski threw a perfect inning, continuing his impressive performance in the early going. Andrew Carpenter allowed two runs on three hits and four walks over two innings. Eyre struck out two in a scoreless frame.

Offensively, Mayberry continued his tear, going 2-for-3 with a two-run homer. Jeremy Slayden, who has also been outstanding, hit a three-run homer in his only at-bat. Ibanez was 1-for-3 with a double and three RBI. Paulino 1-for-3. Donald 0-for-3. Stairs went 1-for-3 with a single for Team Canada.

The Phils play Team USA today. Kyle Kendrick is expected to pitch.

The Zo Zone has updates (a day old) on the medical conditions of Utley, Feliz, Werth, Coste and Durbin.

Ad: TicketCity has Phillies tickets for spring training and regular season games.


Slugging mugging

Adam Eaton and Kyle Kendrick both struggled badly last season. One way to tell was by watching them pitch. There are others, though, and among them is that opponents slugged .484 against Kendrick and .487 against Eaton. By comparison, opponents slugged .384 against Cole Hamels, the Phils’ best starting pitcher in 2008.

Today’s point is that the huge difference between the slugging percentages that hitters put up against the three pitchers reflects that Eaton and Kendrick allowed a lot more hits — not that each hit they allowed was more likely to go for more bases. When you compare the hits allowed by Kendrick and Eaton to the hits allowed by Hamels, ignoring how many there were, the hits allowed by Kendrick and Eaton were not worse than the hits allowed by Hamels.

In fact, the opposite is true. In 2008, a hit allowed by Eaton or Kendrick was a little less likely to go for extra-bases than a hit allowed by Hamels:

Player H 1B % 1B XBH % XBH
Hamels 193 118 61.1 75 38.9
Kendrick 194 128 66.0 66 34.0
Eaton 131 88 67.2 43 32.8

And the extra-base hits given up by Eaton and Kendrick weren’t any worse, either. Again, by the average number of bases allowed from the extra-base hits, the extra-base hits given up by Hamels did a little more damage:

  2B 3B HR XBH TB from
XBH
TB per XBH
Hamels 44 3 28 75 209 2.79
Kendrick 40 3 23 66 181 2.74
Eaton 26 2 15 43 118 2.74

The problem, of course, is not that Hamels, Eaton and Kendrick were all allowing hits at the same rate but Eaton and Kendrick gave up more damaging hits. It’s that Eaton and Kendrick gave up lots more hits.

  PA H PA per H XBH PA per XBH
Hamels 914 193 4.74 75 12.19
Kendrick 722 194 3.72 66 10.94
Eaton 478 131 3.65 43 11.12

Again, Eaton and Kendrick allowed both hits and extra-base hits more frequently and that’s why the slugging percentages they allowed were so much worse. Not cause every hit they gave up was a rocket that went off the wall.

Yesterday the Phils beat the Blue Jays 12-7 to improve to 3-3 in spring training.

JA Happ got the start for the Phillies and went three innings, allowing two runs that came on a two-run homer by Adam Lind in the first inning. Fellow fifth-starter candidate Carlos Carrasco allowed five runs in the fifth inning, surrendering a three-run homer to Kevin Millar and a solo shot to Brad Emaus. Two of the runs allowed by Carrasco were unearned due to a Bruntlett error. Gary Majewski also tossed two scoreless innings — he’s allowed two hits and a walk in four scoreless innings so far.

Jeremy Slayden and Ryan Howard hit home runs for the Phils. Paulino went 1-for-4 with a walk and an RBI. Donald started at short and went 1-for-4 with a walk, raising his spring average to .133 (2-for-15). Mayberry was 1-for-4 with a double, a walk and two RBI. Mayberry leads the Phils with 17 at-bats and has hit 353/450/647 in the early going. Pablo Ozuna went 1-for-3 with two walks. He’s 5-for-8 with two walks.

Werth played in the B-game and went 0-for-2 with two strikeouts. Moyer and Blanton both pitched and combined to throw seven scoreless innings.

The article linked above says the Phillies signed five players from a tryout last week. They are right-handed pitchers Dustin Cameron and Jonathan Velasquez, lefty Sean Thompson, catcher Brendan Akashian and infielder Corby Mintken. Read about Akashian here. Cameron here.

Brad Lidge has had tightness in his right forearm, but had a good bullpen session and thinks he should be able to pitch in about ten spring training games before the start of the season.

Romero seems to think there’s a lot of blame to go around for his 50-game suspension.

Curtis Granderson appears likely to start in center field for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic (not Shane Victorino, who may see time in right).

No game today. The Phils play Team Canada tomorrow.


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