Tag: JC Ramirez

Day after day of the dead

What’s left of the Mets hammered what’s left of the Phillies yesterday afternoon, topping the Phils 11-3 to earn a split in the four-game set.

The series featured a solid start by Lee in game one and a dominating performance by Jon Niese in the second game. The depleted teams slogged through some ugly baseball as the series wore on, though, combining to display super-sloppy defense and miserable pitching.

Ethan Martin started yesterday’s game for the Phillies and struck out nine, but lasted just four innings against a weak New York lineup. He’s now allowed six earned runs in 4 2/3 innings over his last two starts and all anyone can seem to talk about is how he’s destined to be a reliever. The Phils could use some relievers, too. After five scoreless innings in the first three games of the set, the bullpen combined to allow eight runs in four innings after Martin’s early departure yesterday.

The Phillies are 61-73 on the year after losing 11-3 to the New York Mets yesterday afternoon. The teams split the four-game series and are tied for third place in the NL East, 20 1/2 games behind the first-place Braves.

Martin got the start for the Phillies and went four innings, allowing three runs on four hits and three walks. Two of the hits went for extra-base hits, a double and a home run. He struck out nine.

He’s struck out 32 in 25 1/3 innings for the year now, but with a 6.39 ERA and a 1.78 ratio. He’s allowed seven home runs and 16 walks in his 25 1/3 innings.

Daniel Murphy singled to right with one out and stole second after Martin struck Andrew Brown out swinging for the second out. Martin walked Lucas Duda before striking Justin Turner out swinging to end the inning.

Martin struck out the side in the second, getting Matt den Dekker, Anthony Recker and Omar Quintanilla all swinging.

It’s good there is video of these games, cause I’m not sure I would have believed Matt den Dekker is a real person without it. Travis d’Arnaud probably doesn’t know what to do with himself in this his first experience as the runner-up in his team’s weird name competition.

Eric Young singled to right with one out in the third and scored when Murphy followed with a double to left, putting the Mets up 1-0. Martin got the next two to leave Murphy stranded.

Turner walked to start the fourth and scored on a one-out home run by Anthony Recker. 3-0.

Jimenez replaced Martin to start the fifth and allowed another run when Murphy led off with a single and scored when Brown followed with a single to right. 4-0. Jimenez struck out two of the next three as he set the Mets down in order behind Brown.

Jimenez came back for the sixth. He walked the leadoff man Recker before retiring Quintanilla on a popup to Young for the first out. The pitcher Carlos Torres bunted Recker up to second with the second out and Eric Young moved him to third with an infield single. With Murphy at the plate, Jimenez balked Young to second and Recker home (5-0) before Murphy singled to left. Young scored from second ahead of Brown’s throw (6-0) with Young moving up to second. De Fratus came in to pitch to the righty Brown and struck him out swinging to leave Young at second.

Jimenez allows three runs on four hits and a walk in 1 2/3 innings in the game to up his ERA to 2.53. He came into the game having not been charged with a run in nine innings over eight appearances. Righties are on-basing .370 against him for the season with a 261/370/348 line. He hasn’t allowed a home run in 10 2/3 innings on the year.

De Fratus started the seventh with the New York lead cut to 6-1. Duda led off with a single and De Fratus hit Turner behind him, putting men on first and second with nobody out for den Dekker. Den Dekker hit a ball that De Fratus handled, throwing to second to force Turner for the first out with runners safe on the corners. Den Dekker stole second before Recker walked to load the bases for Quintanilla. De Fratus walked Quintanilla on five pitches, forcing Duda in. 7-1 with the bases still loaded and one out. Ike Davis hit for the pitcher Scott Rice. De Fratus struck him out swinging 2-2 for the second out, but Young was next and cleared the bases with a triple to the base of the wall in right. 10-1. Righty JC Ramirez came in to pitch to Murphy and got Murphy on a ground ball to third to end the inning.

De Fratus goes one inning in the game, allowing four runs on two hits and two walks. After getting the only man he faced in the sixth, he gets two outs in the seventh while allowing four runs on a single, two walks, a triple and a hit by pitch.

Yesterday was the first time he had been charged with more than three run in an appearance. He’s now appeared in 65 games for his career. Coming into the game he had thrown to a 1.13 ERA over 16 innings in his last 16 appearances. A lot went wrong in the seventh for him yesterday with four of the first five men he faced in the inning reaching on a hit, two walks and a hit by pitch, but the big blow was the three-run triple by the switch-hitter Young batting left-handed. The righty De Fratus has been really good against lefties this season and hit hard by righties. Lefties are hitting 167/327/357 against him for the year and righties 308/390/413.

Ramirez started the ninth with the lead cut to 10-3. He allowed a leadoff homer to Brown before retiring the next three.

Ramirez goes 1 1/3 innings in the game, allowing a run on one hit, Brown’s homer, and no walks.

Just atrocious numbers for Ramirez on the year as he now has an 8.62 ERA and a 1.98 ratio after 13 appearances. He has been charged with at least one earned run in each of his last eight appearances, throwing to a 12.27 ERA and a 2.64 ratio in those outings as opponents have hit .415 against him. Lefties are hitting 455/556/727 against him for the season in 27 plate appearances (10-for-22 with five walks, a double, a triple and a home run).

Overall the pen went four innings in the game, allowing eight runs on seven hits and three walks. Jimenez and De Fratus were both hit hard and Ramirez allowed a run in 1 1/3 innings.

The Phillie lineup against righty Carlos Torres went (1) Young (2) Frandsen (3) Utley (4) Brown (5) Ruiz (6) Ruf (7) Mayberry (8) McDonald. Mayberry in center against the righty with Bernadina on the bench. Mayberry shouldn’t play center and shouldn’t play against righties. McDonald at short with Rollins on the bench. Frandsen at first and Young at third after Asche hurt his hamstring in game three. Frandsen plays first against the righty and ends the day with a 206/275/278 line against right-handed pitching for the year. Brown returns to the lineup after missing time with a sore heel. Ruf plays right. Seems like the other choice was to put Bernadina in center and Ruf or Mayberry at first. The Phillies should really do their best to commit to never playing Mayberry in center again, regardless of whether Bernadina, or whoever, went 0-for-6 with ten men left on base the day before or not. In their defense, Bernadina, or whoever, is the only other choice to play center given the current roster and Bernadina can’t play there every day.

Frandsen reached on an error by Quintanilla at short with one out in the top of the first, but Utley hit into a double-play behind him.

The Mets start game four with more bad defense after being terrible in the field in game three.

Brown singled to center to start the second, but Ruiz, Ruf and Mayberry all struck out behind him.

The Phils went in order in the third. Down 1-0, they went in order again in the fourth.

One hit for the Phils through four innings, which comes on Brown’s single to start the fourth. The only other base-runner they had was Frandsen when he reached on Quintanilla’s error in the first.

Ruiz doubled to right to start the fifth with the Phils trailing 3-0. The Phillies went in order behind him, leaving him at first.

Trailing 4-0, the Phils went in order in the sixth.

They were down 6-0 when they hit in the seventh. Utley and Brown led off with back-to-back singles, putting runners on first and second for Ruiz. Ruiz flew to center for the first out, with Utley tagging and moving up to third. With one out and men on the corners, Ruf flew to right, deep enough for Utley to tag and score, cutting the lead to 6-1. Lefty Scott Rice took over for Torres and struck Orr out swinging to leave Brown at first.

It was 10-1 when they hit in the eighth. McDonald led off with a single off of righty Gonzalez Germen. Bernandina followed and hit a 1-1 pitch out to right. 10-3. Young and Kratz went down behind Bernadina before Utley doubled to right. Lefty Pedro Feliciano came in to pitch to Brown and got Brown on a ground ball to second to end the frame.

Righty LaTroy Hawkins got Rollins, Ruf and Orr in order in the ninth with the Mets up 11-3.

Young was 0-for-4 and struck out twice. 6-for-16 with two doubles in the four-game series. 266/329/382 for the season. 202/280/287 over his last 143 plat appearances.

Frandsen 0-for-3 in the game and 0-for-7 in the series. 220/294/311 for the year. 134/174/146 over his last 86 plate appearances. Was fantastic against left-handed pitching in 2012 and the early part of 2013, but his numbers against lefties have dropped dramatically. His line against left-handed pitching for the year is down to 255/361/392.

Utley 2-for-4 with a double. 4-for-17 with a double in the series. 4-for-his-last-9. 272/343/479 for the year. 301/363/509 against righties and 204/295/407 against lefties. Way better numbers on the road than at home — 307/369/568 away and 237/316/389 at home. Why? I have no idea. He’s been a little better at home for his career. His UZR/150 at second and his dWAR both suggest his defense is down this year. FanGraphs has his UZR/150 at second at 8.0 — over the last six seasons it’s ranged from 12.1 to 19.2. Baseball-Reference calculates his dWAR at 0.2. They’ve had him between 1.0 and 3.5 in each of the last nine seasons.

Brown 2-for-4 in the game and 2-for-5 in the series. 309/360/456 in August and 277/323/519 on the season.

Ruiz 1-for-3 with a double and left three men on base. 3-for-12 with a double and a home run in the series. 283/325/392 on the season. 18-for-his-last-41 with a 439/465/780 line in those 43 plate appearances. Only guy on the team who is hitting lefties and he’s crushing them. 340/419/509 against left-handed pitching for the year.

Ruf 0-for-3 with an RBI and struck out three times. 1-for-12 with an RBI and seven strikeouts in the set. 258/344/509 on the year. 207/267/476 in his last 90 plate appearances with seven home runs.

Mayberry 0-for-2 with a strikeout. 2-for-11 with two walks and a double in the series. 239/302/416 for the season.

Halladay (3-4, 7.81) faces righty Jeff Samardzija (8-11, 4.03) this afternoon in Chicago. Halladay has made one start since returning from the DL, holding the Diamondbacks to two runs over six innings with the help of a Bernadina catch that turned a two-run homer into an out. He’s walked 19 in 40 1/3 innings for the year, which is more than double his career walk rate. Samardzija threw to a 2.96 ERA in his first 12 starts on the season, but has pitched to a 4.90 ERA his last 15 times out. Opponents hit .203 against him in his first 12 starts and have hit .282 (with a BABIP of .336) against him over his last 15.

Rotation consideration

I don’t think there’s much question that the Phillies starting pitchers in 2010 are going to be better than their starting pitchers in 2009. The question is just how much better. Here’s what the five guys in the starting rotation for 2010, Halladay, Hamels, Blanton, Happ and Moyer, combined to do as starting pitchers in 2009 and how it compares to the overall line for Phillies starters in ’09:

  IP H BB SO ERA Ratio
5 SP 915.7 940 224 719 3.81 1.27
PHI SP ’09 963.7 1022 266 736 4.29 1.34

Phillies starting pitchers overall combined to allow about .495 runs per inning in 2009. Those five pitchers combined to allow about .439 runs per inning, which is about 88.7% of .495.

Halladay threw 239 innings last year, which would have been about 25% of the total innings thrown by starting pitchers if he had thrown them for the Phillies and the Phillies starters had still thrown their 963 2/3 innings. He had a 2.79 ERA and a 1.13 ratio in ’09 and it seems like he may be able to reproduce those fantastic numbers with the move to the NL.

Blanton seems like a good candidate to be about as good in 2010 as he was in 2009.

Hamels seems like a good candidate to be better. Maybe a lot better. He also seems like a good candidate to eat up more innings than the 193 2/3 he pitched in 2009.

Happ seems like he will drop off a little. Moyer will be better or pitch less.

It seems reasonable to assume that the improvement by Hamels and the Moyer spot in the rotation will outweigh the drop off for Happ. As starters, Hamels and Moyer combined to throw 337 innings with a 4.75 ERA and a 1.35 ratio in 2009. Hamels and Moyer, or whoever takes over for Moyer, are going to combine to be a lot better than that in 2010.

If those five did exactly what they did in 2009 again in 2010, here’s what the other Phillies starting pitchers would have to do in 2010 for the Phillies to match their 2009 totals in these categories:

48 82 42 17 13.31 2.58

Insert your own Jose Contreras joke here, but someone in the starting rotation is going to be a lot worse in 2010 than they were in 2009 or the numbers for the rotation are going to get better overall.

The Phillies beat the Blue Jays 4-2 yesterday. Hamels sat down the first nine men he faced before allowing a solo homer to Jose Bautista to start the fourth. Ryan Vogelsong followed Hamels and allowed a run over 2 1/3 innings. JC Ramirez pitched the last three innings and held Toronto to a pair of singles while striking out three. Cody Ransom hit a solo home run for the Phils. Dobbs doubled twice. Mayberry was 2-for-4 with a pair of doubles to raise his average for the spring to .368.

Kyle Drabek started the game for Toronto and pitched two scoreless innings.

This says Brad Lidge will pitch in a game on Monday.

The doctor is in

Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee are among the elite pitchers in baseball, but there’s no question that Halladay has had the better career to this point. Halladay is less than a year and a half older than Lee, but has thrown 850 more innings than Lee. His innings have been better, too, as the numbers Halladay has put up overall are simply better than Lee’s.

Lee had a miserable 2007 season. He strained his groin in spring training and things got worse from there. He ended the year with a 6.29 ERA. He was fantastic in 2008 as he won the AL Cy Young award. Even over the last two years, though, Halladay has been better. Here’s what the two did in ’08 and ’09 combined:

  IP ERA Ratio
Halladay 485 2.78 1.09
Lee 455 2.89 1.18

That includes 2009, when Lee pitched about 35% of his innings in the National League.

Halladay has certainly been more the more consistent of the two. Lee has had two disastrous seasons out of the past six — 2007 and 2004. Halladay was awful over 67 2/3 innings in 2000, but that’s the only year of his career he’s put up an ERA+ under 115.

Here’s the rate at which the two have allowed hits, walks, extra-base hits, doubles and triples and home runs per 100 plate appearances over their careers:

  H/100 BB/100 XBH/100 (2B+3B)
Halladay 23.7 5.4 6.8 4.7 2.0
Lee 24.1 6.5 8.0 5.4 2.6

Halladay comes out ahead in all five categories.

It tightens up a little if you just look at the last two years. Important to remember is that Halladay has had five seasons in which he threw 100 innings or more with an ERA+ that was better than his ERA+ the year that he won the Cy Young award (2003). Lee’s Cy Young came in 2008 and he hasn’t had another year that was nearly as good. Here are their rates for the same five categories for the past two years:

  H/100 BB/100 XBH/100 (2B+3B)
Halladay 23.3 3.8 6.6 4.5 2.1
Lee 24.7 4.1 6.5 4.9 1.6

Halladay still was better at preventing hits and walks, but did allow home runs at a slightly higher rate than Lee.

One obvious difference between the two pitchers is that Halladay is right-handed and Lee is a lefty. It’s Halladay that’s been the better of the two against lefties over his career, though. They’ve both been good, but Halladay has held lefties to a puny 240/270/377 line while lefties have hit slightly better, 268/309/405, against Lee. Halladay, as you would expect, has been better against righties (278/305/389 compared to 262/318/415 against Lee).

The series of moves that brings Halladay to Philadelphia and sends Lee to Seattle are done. First the Phillies traded Lee to the Mariners for right-handed pitchers Phillippe Aumont and JC Ramirez and center fielder Tyson Gillies. The Phillies then traded Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor and Travis d’Arnaud to the Blue Jays for Halladay and $6 million.

The article linked above says that Halladay has signed a three-year extension that will make Halladay a Phillie through at least 2013. Halladay will make $20 million a year for three years after making $15.75 million in 2010.

It’s great to have Halladay on the team. If he’s not the best pitcher in baseball he’s definitely in the conversation. The frustrating thing, of course, is that the Phillies were unwilling to keep Lee for 2010 given how reasonable his contract was. When you think back to how much the Phillies have paid Geoff Jenkins and Adam Eaton not to play in recent years, and how much they will be paying Moyer to play this year, the failure to keep Lee for reasons that seem to be purely financial is even a little more frustrating. The prospects the Phillies traded away are better and more likely to contribute at the big league level in the next few years than the ones they got back. It’s great to have Halladay for three more years, but if you’re willing to pay your ace $20 million a year you’ve got a really good chance to get someone fantastic.

On the other hand, the Phillies are better today than they were before the trade. Halladay seems to clearly want to be in Philadelphia. He would have gotten a much better contract somewhere else if he had waited. If you’re willing to pay your ace $20 million you’re going to get someone really good, but you’re not going to get Halladay to sign a short three-year contract.

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