Tag: James Loney

California, here we come

Here’s the runs scored and allowed per game and the difference between the two for the Phillies and Dodgers this season:


Regular Season
  G R/G RA/G DIFF
PHI 162 5.06 4.38 0.69
LA 162 4.81 3.77 1.04

LA won 95 games this year while the Phils won 93.

The Phillies had the better offense, but LA was a lot better at preventing runs. Overall, the difference between the average number of runs scored and allowed per game is a lot bigger for the Dodgers.

Here’s what they did after the All-Star break:


Second Half
  G R/G RA/G DIFF
PHI 76 4.74 3.91 0.83
LA 74 4.55 3.69 0.86

The Phillies were 45-31 (.592) in the second-half while LA went 39-35 (.527), coming off of a brilliant first half when they were 56-32 (.636). The Dodgers had a seven game lead in the NL West going into the break. The Phils still scored more runs in the second half, but also closed the gap between the teams in terms of average difference between runs scored and allowed by improving their pitching significantly.

The Phillies offense was down a little in September, and their pitching got a little worse. The Dodgers widened the gap:


September
  G R/G RA/G DIFF
PHI 30 4.67 4.13 0.53
LA 27 4.89 3.81 1.07

Here’s what they’ve done over the past ten games, including games in the post-season:


Last ten games (including post-season)
  G R/G RA/G DIFF
PHI 10 5.20 4.40 0.80
LA 10 3.30 3.80 -0.50

The LA offense has been slowed a little, perhaps in part by the Cardinals pitching staff. They went just 2-5 in their seven games before they swept the Cards, scoring just 20 runs in those seven games. Despite outscoring the Cards 13-6 in the NLDS, LA has allowed 38 runs over their last ten games and scored just 33.

The Phils and Dodgers played seven games against each other this year:


Vs opponent in 2009
  G R/G RA/G DIFF
PHI 7 3.57 3.71 -0.14
LA 7 3.71 3.57 0.14

The Phils and Dodgers played seven games this year during the regular season. The Dodgers won four, outscoring the Phils 26-25.

Ruiz, Ibanez and Stairs were the only three Phillies that had an OPS for the year against the Dodgers that was better than .750.

Ruiz was 8-for-14 with three doubles, seven walks and a homer (571/714/1.000).

Ibanez 8-for-26, also with three doubles and a home run (308/400/538).

Stairs was 2-for-3 with two singles.

At the less good end of the pool, Victorino was 3-for-24 without a walk (125/125/250). Howard 3-for-28 with a double and a home run (107/156/250). Rollins 5-for-28 with a double and a home run (179/207/321).

Loney, Ethier and Blake all hit the Phillies well this season. Loney 11-for-28 with two home runs (393/433/607), Ethier 8-for-29 with three doubles and two home runs (276/323/586) and Blake 8-for-24 with two doubles and a home run (333/308/542). Curious about that to me is that two of those guys (Loney and Ethier) are lefties and one of them, Ethier, was absolutely atrocious against left-handed pitching this year. By absolutely atrocious I mean 194/283/345 over 187 plate appearances in this case. So maybe the lefty-heavy rotation will have more luck with them in the NLCS.

Lefty-killer Kemp was pretty good against the Phils, but not as good as Loney, Ethier and Blake by OPS. He was 9-for-27 with a double and a triple against the Phils (333/379/444).

Not to be forgotten when you consider what the Phillies did against the Dodgers this season is that Manny Ramirez did not have a single plate appearance against them this season. Seemingly less important is that Belliard didn’t as a Dodger, either, although Ron did slug .714 against the Phils as a Nat in ’09, going 4-for-14 with a double, a triple and a home run (286/286/714).

Furcal (222/250/407) and Martin (227/346/273) both hit under .230 against the Phils in ’09.


West obsessed

Still a few games left to play, but it looks almost just about sure the Phillies will be playing the Rockies of the Dodgers in the first round of the playoffs. Here’s how the offenses for the three teams compare for the year, since the All-Star break and for the month that just ended:


Season
Team G R R/G
COL 158 788 4.99
LA 159 767 4.82
PHI 158 805 5.09
       

Second Half
COL 70 346 4.94
LA 71 324 4.56
PHI 72 345 4.79
       

September
COL 27 134 4.96
LA 27 132 4.89
PHI 30 140 4.67

The Rockies have been a little better than the Dodgers offensively.

Ignoring the Phillies offense thinking only about which offense the Phils’ pitchers would fare best against, I still like the Phillies chances against the Rockies a little better than the Dodgers given the Phils seem sure to start lefties Lee and Hamels in the first two games of a short set.

Here’s what the Rockies and Dodgers have done against lefties this season — their average, on-base percentage and slugging against them as a team as well as their rate of getting hits, walks, doubles and triples and hitting home runs per 100 plate appearances:


AVG

OBP

SLG

H/100

BB/100

(2B+3B)/100

HR/100

COL

254

334

436

22.0

9.9

5.7

3.2

LA

271

358

427

23.1

10.5

5.2

2.5

The Rockies did hit for a little more power against lefties this season, but the Dodgers got hits and walks at a higher rate. LA’s .358 on-base percentage against lefties is particularly impressive.

Here are the Rockies hitters that have at least 50 plate appearances this year with an OPS of .850 or better against lefties:


Player

AVG

OBP

SLG

OPS
Iannetta 299 407 597 1.004
Tulowitzki 268 379 530 .909
Fowler 326 379 492 .872
Smith 259 368 500 .868
Gonzalez 294 356 510 .866

Iannetta hasn’t played nearly as much as Torrealba recently. Smith is a left-handed batter who has only had about 18% of his plate appearances against lefties this season. Fowler and Gonzalez can’t both play center field at the same time — Fowler has appeared only as a center fielder this season while Gonzalez has appeared at all three outfield positions, but mostly center and left.

Tulowitzki is just great.

Lefty Brad Hawpe plays right field just about all the time and has hit 252/348/453 against left-handed pitching this year.

Here’s how the list for the Dodgers looks:


Player

AVG

OBP

SLG

OPS
Kemp 365 431 620 1.052
Blake 317 441 564 1.005
Ramirez 274 384 521 .904
Hudson 295 363 496 .859

Kemp, Blake and Ramirez are all terrors against lefties. Blake has been out with a sore hamstring, but he should be back this weekend.

Furcal and Pierre have both also been good against lefties this season, but don’t quite have their OPS against them up to .850. Furcal is hitting 298/363/454 against them and Pierre 316/412/398.

Loney and Martin both did a great job of getting on base against lefties this year, but with little power. Loney on-based .373 against them and Martin .411.

On the plus side, Andre Ethier had a fantastic year in which he hit 31 home runs and drove in 105 but was terrible against lefties. In 186 plate appearances against left-handed pitching this season he hit 189/280/341.

Jamie Moyer is out for the season. That is very disappointing — both because it would have been nice to see him help the team in the post-season and because there was a very good chance he was going to be able to given how well he had been pitching. Moyer looking up from his knees, badly injured, to see if Victorino had caught the ball in center wasn’t really the last memory of his season I was hoping for. It is, however, a good reminder of what he has given this team. After a terrible first two months this year he had thrown to a 4.06 ERA with a 1.22 ratio over his last 108 2/3 innings.

This article says that Myers was available last night, that Park will be back “very quickly” and seems to suggest that Myers may be on the post-season roster.


Who says nobody walks in LA?

Here’s a look at eight key Dodgers hitters, what they did in the NLDS and what they did at the end of the regular season:

Player NLDS 9/15/08 to
end of regular season
   
Manny Ramirez 5-for-10 (.500) 4 BB, 2 HR 17-for-39 (436/551/769)
1.320 OPS 3 HR, 2 2B, 10 BB
Russell Martin 4-for-13 (.308) 3 2B, 1 HR 5
RBI
12-for-34 (353/511/500)
1.011 OPS 2 2B, 1 HR, 11 BB
     
   
Matt Kemp 2-for-13 (.154) 2 2B, 5 K 17-for-49 (347/396/531) 
.927 OPS 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 4 BB
Blake DeWitt 3-for-11 (.273) 2 2B 11-for-40 (275/415/425) .840
OPS 2 HR, 10 BB
Andre Ethier 1-for-10 (.100) 4 BB 14-for-41 (341/451/390) .841
OPS 2 2B, 9 BB
Rafael Furcal 4-for-12 (.333) 3 BB 2-for-9 (222/300/222) .522
OPS
     
   
Casey Blake 3-for-11 (.273) 2 RBI 9-for-41 (220/304/390) .694
OPS 2 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR
James Loney 3-for-14 (.214) 1 2B, 1 HR,
6 RBI
9-for-47  (191/220/277) 
.497 OPS

I think there are two big things to remember when you consider the LA offense these days. Neither are real encouraging for the Phillies.

The first bad news for the Phillies is that the players who have hurt the LA offense this season, generally speaking, aren’t playing any more. Berroa and Pierre were both on the bench for the NLDS and both had one at-bat. Andruw Jones is on the DL. Kent wasn’t nearly as bad as the rest of that group, but he also had just one at-bat against the Cubs.

The other bad news is maybe even a little worse: all of the sudden the Dodgers are walking at a tremendous rate. LA led both leagues in walks in September. They drew 124 in 25 games, about 4.96 per game. In their first 137 games through the end of August, they drew 419 walks in 137 games, about 3.06 walks per game. Looking at the numbers from September 15 to the end of the regular season, Ethier, Ramirez, DeWitt and Martin all drew at least nine walks.

I feel pretty comfortable saying that if the Phillies walk five batters per game in the series they are going to lose.

Looking at the eight position players for the Dodgers, Ramirez and Martin both came into the series with the Cubs hot and stayed hot. Blake and Loney came in cold. Loney had just two hits in the series but drove in six runs. Blake managed three singles in 11 at-bats. Ethier and Kemp both came into the series playing well but cooled down against Chicago, combining to go 3-for-23. Furcal is 6-for-21 since coming off the DL. DeWitt was hitting well coming into the series and went 3-for-11 with a pair of doubles.

Here’s what the Phillies likely to see the most time on the field in the NLCS did against the Brewers and at the end of the regular season:


NLDS

9/15/08 to end of regular season

Shane Victorino
5-for-14 (.357)
3 2B, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 3 SB
19-for-45
(422/435/689) 1.124 OPS 3 2B, 1 HR, 5 RBI 3 SB

Greg Dobbs
3-for-5 (.600)
6-for-14
(429/467/857) 1.324 OPS 3 2B, 1 HR

Jayson Werth
5-for-16 (.313)
3 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 6 K
12-for-48
(250/280/417) .697 OPS 2 2B, 2 HR, 15 K

Jimmy Rollins
6-for-16 (.375)
2 2B, 1 HR
11-for-44
(250/365/364) .729 OPS 5 2B, 7 BB
Pat
Burrell
3-for-12 (.250)
2 BB, 2 HR
8-for-37
(216/333/459) .792 OPS 2 2B, 2 HR, 7 BB

Ryan Howard
2-for-11 (.182)
1 2B, 5 BB
14-for-40
(350/429/775) 1.204 OPS 1 2B, 2 3B, 4 HR

Chase Utley
2-for-15 (.133)
1 2B
13-for-42
(310/400/548) .948 OPS 4 2B, 2 HR

Carlos Ruiz
1-for-14 (.071) 4-for-28
(143/306/286) .592 OPS 1 2B, 1 HR

Pedro Feliz
3-for-13 (.231)
1 2B
5-for-27
(186/313/333) .646 OPS 1 2B, 1 HR

Howard and Utley, curiously, both didn’t do much after coming into the NLDS hitting well. Dobbs seems likely to see more time at third base as Feliz continues to struggle. Ruiz is a mess at the plate. Burrell came into the series with the Brewers in a slump that continued until he had three hits and four RBI in game four. Rollins and Werth both scuffled their way into the NLDS, but hit well in it. Werth struck out six times, though, and has stuck out 21 times since September 15. Strikeout king Ryan Howard, by comparison, has struck out 13 times since September 15.


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