Tag: Erick Aybar

Don’t walk

The last post suggested that if Ben Revere is going to continue to hit for (almost literally) no power, he’s going to need to dramatically improve his walk rate if he’s ever going to post a wOBA above league average. He could also try hitting like .340 or so, but let’s just assume that’s not going to happen.

There are, though, guys who walk at the rate Ben Revere has, 5.2% of his plate appearances in 2011 and about 5.4% in 2012, and still post a wOBA better than league average.

Here’s the list of the guys over the past five seasons who have gotten enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title and walked in between 5.2% and 5.4% of their plate appearances as well as their FanGraph‘s calculated wOBAs.

% BB wOBA League average wOBA ISO
Pierzynski ’12 5.4 .351 .321 .223
Hardy ’12 5.3 .290 .321 .151
Boesch ’12 5.2 .288 .321 .132
Cozart ’12 5.2 .298 .321 .153
Montero ’12 5.2 .295 .321 .126
Viciedo ’12 5.2 .321 .321 .188
Suzuki ’11 5.4 .281 .316 .064
Infante ’11 5.3 .306 .316 .105
Soriano ’11 5.3 .326 .316 .225
Guerrero ’10 5.4 .364 .321 .196
Polanco ’10 5.3 .322 .321 .088
Cabrera ’10 5.2 .292 .321 .091
Callaspo ’10 5.2 .297 .321 .109
Aybar ’09 5.4 .340 .329 .111
Byrd ’09 5.3 .346 .329 .196
Polanco ’09 5.3 .321 .329 .112
’08 — no players - - - -

So there are 16 instances over the past five seasons of a player with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title who also walked in 5.2% to 5.4% of his plate appearances (like Ben Revere).

Of those 16, seven had a year in which their wOBA was league average or better.

If you’re never going to walk, or walk about 5.4% of the time or so, the two most likely ways to do that are to hit for a monster average or hit with monster power. Or a combination of the two.

Adrian Beltre, who does not appear on the table above, is the king of posting huge wOBA numbers with a low walk rate. He does both. In 2012, Beltre was ninth among the 143 qualified players across both leagues with a .388 wOBA despite a walk rate of just 5.5%. He hit .321 with 33 doubles and 36 home runs. In 2011 he walked in just 4.8% of his plate appearances but was 22nd across both leagues in wOBA, thanks to hitting .296 with 32 homers.

Ben Revere is never, ever going to hit for monster power.

Of the seven guys who got to average or better, five of them did it showing very good isolated power. Those five are: Pierzynski in 2012, Viciedo in ’12, Soriano in ’11, Guerrero in 2010 and Marlon Byrd in 2009. Of that group of five, the worse isolated power mark is Dayan Viciedo’s .188 in 2012 — he hit 25 home runs in 543 plate appearances for the White Sox last year. The best isolated power mark of that group of five is the .225 for Soriano in 2011.

The other two guys who fill out the list are Placido Polanco in 2010 and Erick Aybar in 2009. Those guys made it to league average or better (although just barely in Polanco’s case) for wOBA despite not walking and not hitting for power.

Polanco hit 298/339/386 that year with an isolated power of .088. Revere can hit .298 and can even on-base .339. We’ll have to wait and see, but an isolated power of .088 seems like it might require a little wishful thinking. Polanco didn’t steal any bases in 2010, just five for the year. So that’s an element Revere could bring to his wOBA to deliver a ’10 Polanco-like year without as much power if he does not improve his walk rate.

Aybar hit .312 in ’09, posting a 312/353/423 line with a .340 wOBA that put him well above league average. His isolated power of .111 for the year was even better than Polanco’s and seems well out of reach for Revere.

So, if Revere’s going to get to league average or better in wOBA, it looks like there’s a bunch of things he’s going to have to do in combination to have a chance to get there — hit for a real high average, steal a whole lot of bases without getting caught hardly at all, increase his walk rate and do as much as possible to deliver some more power. The power from year to year is probably going to be a fluke — you’re not going to see him hit the ball out of the yard ten or five or probably even three times in a season. What you might see is a bunch of weird bounces that give him five or seven doubles in a year that turn into triples, which would do good things for his isolated power.

Recent Phillie rumors include 1) the Phillies are interested in Alfonso Soriano and may have offered Domonic Brown straight up for him and 2) the Phillies have offered Josh Hamilton a three-year deal.

The linked article points out that if Josh Hamilton was willing to take a three-year deal there would be a whole lot of teams interested in giving him one.

The White Sox got Jeff Keppinger on a three-year, $12 million deal.

This article mentions Joe Saunders, Chris Young, Carl Pavano, Derek Lowe, John Lannan, Jair Jurrjens, Kevin Millwood, and Chien-Ming Wang as the type of player the Phillies might target to fill out their rotation. Both Pavano and Jurrjens were awful in 2012, but they seem to me to be the guys on the list with the biggest upside for 2013.

Now if we can just get someone to write a column calling the 13 hitters wimps we should be all set

Coming off a miserable string of starts, Brett Myers was much better last night. The Phils didn’t win or anything, let’s not get nuts, but he pitched deep into the eighth inning before the game changed on a two-run homer he surrendered to Erick Aybar.

Myers’ line doesn’t look particularly fantastic — he allowed four runs in 7 2/3 innings. But he pitched better than his line. Myers started the eighth with the game tied 2-2, having allowed three hits and a walk in the contest.

The Phillies have lost six of seven and four in a row. Over their last four games they have scored a total of seven runs.

The Phillies lost to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim last night, falling 6-2 to drop to 42-34 on the year.

Myers got the start for the Phillies and went 7 2/3 innings, allowing four runs on six hits and two walks. Four of the hits went for extra-bases, a double and three home runs. He struck out seven.

With one out in the first, Myers walked Maicer Izturis. Izturis stole second, but Myers got Garrett Anderson to ground to second and Vladimir Guerrero to pop to first to end the frame.

Myers threw a 1-2-3 second.

With two outs in the third, Chone Figgins bunted for a single. Erick Aybar pinch-hit for Izturis, who left the game with a tight right hamstring, and grounded to short.

With one out in the fourth, Vlad pounded an 0-1 pitch out to left to put the Angels up 1-0. Myers got the next two.

He struck out Gary Matthews Jr, Jeff Mathis and pitcher Joe Saunders in the fifth.

He threw a 1-2-3 sixth.

Guerrero led off the seventh and again was swinging early in the count. He belted the first pitch he saw out to left to put Anaheim up 2-0. Myers got the next three behind him.

Myers started the eighth with the game tied at 2-2 having thrown just 88 pitches. He got the first two before Figgins singled. He got ahead of the switch-hitter Aybar 0-1 before Aybar drove one down right field line and just out to put the Angels up 4-2. Anderson followed with a double and Myers stayed in to walk Vlad to put men on first and second. Romero came in to pitch to the lefty Kotchman and got him to ground to second.

Myers had allowed three hits going into the eighth. Given the low pitch count I don’t think you can argue with letting him start the inning.

Third career home run for Aybar.

Durbin started the ninth. He hit Matthews with one out and Matthews stole second. Mathis hit a fly ball to left that Taguchi, who had run for Burrell in the bottom of the eighth, misplayed for a two-base error that allowed Matthews to go to third. Righty Juan Rivera hit for pitcher Scott Shields and the Phillies brought the infield in. Rivera chopped a ball slowly up the middle. Bruntlett fielded and threw home, but Matthews slid in safely. 5-2. With men on first and third, Figgins blooped a ball between Rollins and Taguchi for a single. Mathis scored and it was 6-2. With men on first and second, Durbin struck out Aybar and got Anderson on a ground ball to second for the third out.

Two runs in 1 1/3 innings for the pen, but both were unearned. Durbin was charged with both runs, but pitched well and allowed just one hit, which was a bloop single. Durbin hasn’t been charged with an earned run in 13 1/3 innings over his last ten games. He threw 27 pitches, so he’s probably out today. Romero threw just seven.

The Phillies’ lineup against lefty Joe Saunders went (1) Rollins (2) Victorino (3) Burrell (4) Howard (5) Werth (6) Coste (7) Feliz (8) Bruntlett. The slumping Utley on the bench against the lefty. Bruntlett plays second and hits eighth. Burrell moves up to third in the lineup. Coste catches and moves up to sixth in the lineup.

The Phils went 1-2-3 in the first.

Coste singled with two outs in the second, but Feliz grounded to third for the third out.

1-2-3 in the third.

Burrell singled with one out in the fourth. Howard followed and struck out on three pitches. Werth flew to left for the third out.

They went 1-2-3 in the fifth.

Myers led off the sixth with a walk. Rollins popped to short and Victorino hit into a double-play.

With two outs in the seventh Werth hit a high fly ball to center that went off the top of the wall and out for a home run that cut the Anaheim lead to 2-1. Tenth home run on the year for Werth. Coste followed with a walk and Feliz reached out and hit a 2-2 pitch into left-center for a double. Coste scored from first with two outs to tie the score at 2-2. Play of the game was next. Bruntlett lined the first pitch of his at-bat into center. Matthews charged and threw home but the first baseman Kotchman made a brilliant play. He cut the ball, then looked towards home, whirled and threw to second to nail Bruntlett to end the inning. Bad base-running from Bruntlett, but a better play by Kotchman.

Dobbs hit for Romero to start the eighth and struck out. Rollins went down swinging for the second out before Victorino struck out swinging on a pitch that Mathis didn’t handle and Victorino took first. Burrell walked and Taguchi ran for him at first with the Phils down 4-2. Shields struck Howard out swinging 1-2 to leave both runners stranded.

Down 6-2 in the ninth, Werth and Coste started the inning with back-to-back walks before Feliz hit into a double-play. With righty Francisco Rodriguez on the mound, Jenkins hit for Bruntlett and popped to third to end the game with Werth stranded at third.

Rollins 0-for-4.

Victorino 0-for-4.

Burrell 1-for-3 with a walk.

Howard 0-for-4 with two strikeouts. 1-for-his-last-15.

Werth 1-for-3 with a home run and a walk.

Coste 1-for-2 with two walks.

Feliz 1-for-4 with an RBI.

Bruntlett 1-for-3.

Cole Hamels (7-4, 3.23) faces righty Jared Weaver (6-7, 4.73) this afternoon. Weaver has allowed 17 earned runs in 23 1/3 innings (6.56 ERA) over his last four starts. Righties are hitting .282 against him on the year but have hit just two of the 12 home runs he has allowed. Hamels hasn’t allowed more than two runs in any of his last three starts. Over those starts he has allowed four runs which came on four solo home runs.

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