Tag: craig kimbrel

Playoffs??! You’re talking about playoffs?

Yup. Still. They’re kinda tough to forget.

You may recall that the Phils were pretty good during the regular season and not so good in the playoffs over the past two years. Here’s what the post-season teams did in the playoffs in terms of scoring and preventing runs and how those numbers compared to what the teams did during the regular season. Here are the numbers for the playoff teams in the NL for 2011:

G RS RA S/G A/G Reg Season
S/G
Reg Season
A/G
STL total 18 100 77 5.56 4.28 4.70 4.27
MIL 11 49 68 4.54 6.18 4.45 3.94
PHI 5 21 19 4.20 3.80 4.40 3.27
ARI 5 25 23 5.00 4.60 4.51 4.09
All NL teams 39 195 187 5.00 4.79 4.13 4.16
STL vs NL only 11 62 47 5.64 4.27 4.70 4.27

Overall, the NL teams scored 5.00 runs per game in the post-season, which is about 121% of the runs NL teams scored during the regular season. Of course, a lot of the NL teams that can’t hit didn’t even make the playoffs in 2011. The Cards, Brewers, Snakes and Phils combined to score 2,927 runs in 648 regular season games, which is about 4.52 runs per game (it’s about 4.57 runs per game if you weight it to account for the number of games played by each of the four teams, since the Cards had the best offense in the league and played the most playoff games).

Every NL team that made the post-season in 2011 except the Phils scored more runs per game in their post-season games than they had in their regular season games. The Cards scored about 118% of their regular season runs per game, the Diamondbacks about 111% and the Brewers about 102%. The Phillies scored 4.20 runs per game, which was about 95% of the 4.40 they averaged during the regular season.

Each of the four NL playoff teams also allowed more runs per game in the post-season than the regular season. The Cardinals came the closest to their regular season numbers, allowing just 4.28 runs per game, which is just a tick over the 4.27 they averaged for the regular season. Again, they were pitching against better teams than they faced during the regular season. Based on the regular season numbers against all NL teams, the Cards would have allowed about 48.7 runs in the 11 games they played against NL playoff teams (five against the Phils and six against the Brewers) — they actually allowed 47.

The Phillies allowed about 116% of the runs per game they allowed during the regular season in the ’11 post-season, which is the second-highest leap of the four NL playoff teams after the Brewers. Milwaukee has some ugly numbers thanks to allowing 43 runs to the Cardinals in the six-game NLCS. Not to be forgotten, of course, is that the Phils were facing the best-hitting team in the NL in the ’11 post-season. St Louis played the Phillies nine times during the regular season, going 6-3 and scoring 34 runs. That’s 3.77 runs per game, very similar to what they scored against the Phils during the post-season.

And here are the numbers for the NL teams in 2010:

G RS RA S/G A/G Reg Season
S/G
Reg Season
A/G
SF total 15 59 41 3.93 2.73 4.30 3.60
PHI 9 33 23 3.67 2.56 4.77 3.95
ATL 4 9 11 2.25 2.75 4.56 3.88
CIN 3 4 13 1.33 4.33 4.88 4.23
All NL teams 31 105 88 3.39 2.84 4.33 4.35
SF vs NL only
10 30 29 3.00 2.90 4.30 3.60

In 2010, all four of the NL teams that played in the post-season scored fewer runs per game than they scored during the regular season. That’s a flip from 2011, when three of the four teams (everyone but the Phillies) scored more. In 2010, the Braves and Reds each scored less than half of the runs per game in the post-season that they had scored during the regular season. The Giants were a little off their regular season pace, scoring 91.4% of their regular season runs per game overall but only about 69.8% before they got to the World Series. In the World Series, they plated 29 runs in just five games or 5.8 runs per game — way more than the 4.30 runs per game they scored during the 2010 regular season.

The Phils, meanwhile, didn’t have the huge dropoff in runs scored per game that the Braves and Reds did, but still scored significantly fewer runs per game in the post-season than they had during the regular season. They scored 3.67 runs per game in their nine playoff games in 2010, about 77% of the runs per game they scored during the regular season.

Three of the four teams allowed fewer runs per game in the post-season than they had during the regular season. The only team that didn’t was the Reds, who were outscored 13-4 by the Phils as the Phils swept them in three games in the opening round.

Of the four NL teams in the post-season in 2010, the Phillies were the team whose runs allowed per game was the lowest compared to the runs they allowed during the regular season. The Reds allowed more runs per game than they had during the regular season, the Phils allowed about 64.8%, the Braves about 70.9% and the Giants about 75.8%. In their games against the NL teams, the Giants allowed about 80.6% of the runs per game they had allowed during the regular season. A lot of that success for the Phils in 2010 relative to the rest of that group has to do with what happened in their opening series with the Reds — as you may remember, the Phils got shutouts from Halladay and Hamels in games one and three of the set.

The Phillies signed right-handed reliever Jonathan Papelbon to a four-year deal worth just over $50 million. We’ll have to wait see how that works out for the Phils in 2012, but between Papelbon and Thome the Phils are in good shape if the powers-that-be decide to replay 2006 instead.

Vance Worley finished third in NL Rookie of the Year voting behind Freddie Freeman and winner Craig Kimbrel. Kimbrel got all 32 of the first place votes.

In this article, Charlie Manuel includes third base when listing the positions that free agent Michael Cuddyer can play. I’m not convinced. When the Phillies don’t get Cuddyer, how disappointed we should all be will depend on whether or not he can play third. I’m guessing he can’t.

This article suggests that Cuddyer is not the high priority in Philadelphia being portrayed by the media and is more of a “middle priority” for the Phils.


102

The Phils made franchise history last night, winning their 102nd game of the regular season for the first time ever as they beat Atlanta 4-3 in 13 innings to knock the Braves out of the post-season.

The Phillies end the year at 102-60 and winners of four straight games. They swept Atlanta in the three-game set and the Braves fell short in their Wild Card bid with the combination of last night’s loss and an 8-0 win for the Cardinals against Houston.

Blanton started the game for the Phils and allowed a run on three hits over two innings, dropping his ERA on the year to 5.01.

The Phils went up 1-0 in the top of the first when Pence’s two-out walk was followed by a Howard double. Michael Bourn led off the bottom of the first for Atlanta with a single, stole second, went to third on a ground out and scored on a sac fly to tie the game at 1-1. Dan Uggla hit a two-run homer off of Cole Hamels in the third, putting Atlanta up 3-1.

The Phils still trailed by two runs when they hit in the seventh. With one out and men on first and third, Ruiz smashed a ball to short that would have been a double-play ball if Jack Wilson could have handled it cleanly. He couldn’t. Ruiz reached on an error and Ibanez scored from third to cut the lead to 3-2.

Craig Kimbrel came on in the ninth to try to save the game for Atlanta, but couldn’t get it done. The Phils loaded the bases on a single by Polanco and walks to Francisco and Rollins before Utley delivered a sac fly that tied the game at 3-3. With two outs in the top of the 13th and men on first and third, Pence broke his bat delivering a single into shallow right field with Schneider scoring from third to put the Phillies up a run. Herndon kept the Braves off the board in the bottom of the ninth, walking Uggla with one out but getting Freddie Freeman to hit into a double-play behind him to end the game, to earn his first career save.

Hamels didn’t look strong pitching in relief, allowing two runs on four hits over three innings, and again was hurt by the home run on the two-run shot by Uggla. In 38 innings in September, Hamels allowed nine home runs (2.13 per nine innings). Only one pitcher in either league, Bronson Arroyo, allowed more than nine home runs in September. Three others besides Hamels also allowed nine (Anthony Vazquez managed to allow nine in 20 innings pitching for Seattle). Coming into September, Hamels had allowed ten home runs in 178 innings (.51 per nine innings).

It was a fantastic night for the Phillie bullpen. Blanton and Hamels combined to allow three runs over five innings. After Hamels left, Worley, Lidge, Madson, Stutes, Schwimer, De Fratus and Herndon combined to throw eight shutout innings in which they allowed three hits and four walks.

Madson, Lidge and Stutes combined to go three innings in the game in which they struck out four without allowing a hit or a walk.

Michael Schwimer threw two scoreless innings in the game, allowing just one single. He ends the season having thrown four scoreless innings over his last three appearances.

Rollins was 0-for-6 with a walk in the game. He goes 11-for-25 to end the season.

Utley 2-for-4 with two walks. He goes 4-for-8 in his last two games of the regular season.

Pence 2-for-4 with three walks. He’s 7-for-his-last-16 to end the season. 324/394/560 in 236 plate appearances with the Phils this year.

Howard 2-for-3 with a double and an RBI. 6-for-14 over his last four games. Ends the year at 224/286/347 against left-handed pitching.

Mayberry 1-for-5 with a walk and started the game in center with Victorino resting with a (hopefully slightly) sore back. Mayberry is 3-for-his-last-15 with four walks. He slugged .576 in the second-half of the season, which led the Phils and was seventh in the NL among the 117 players with at least 150 plate appearances. . He hit ten home runs in 144 second-half at-bats. He has hit 302/356/611 over his last 177 plate appearances.

Victorino is 6-for-his-last-21 after going 0-for-1 last night, but hit 179/257/321 over his last 149 plate appearances to end the season. After going 2-for-5 with a triple and a home run against the Mets on August 23, Victorino was hitting 314/389/551 for the year. He ends the season at 279/355/491.

Ibanez 1-for-6 with two strikeouts and six men left on base. 5-for-17 to end the year. He walked in just 33 of his 575 plate appearances this year (5.7%), which is his lowest rate since 1998. He ends the year at 211/232/353 against lefties.

Polanco 2-for-4. 4-for-24 with no walks to end the year. 243/304/287 in 409 plate appearances since the end of April. He had ten extra-base hits in those 409 plate appearances.

Ruiz 0-for-5 with two strikeouts and an RBI. He has on-based .376 over 1,284 plate appearances the last three years. His power was down this year — he registered extra-base hits in just 6.1% of his plate appearances. Over the last two seasons he had delivered an extra-base hit in about 9.0% of his plate appearances. He slugged just .337 against lefties for the season despite posting a .265 average against them. He’s 1-for-his-last-13.

Martinez went 0-for-3 in the game and left seven men on base. He ends the year 1-for-his-last-21 with a 196/258/282 line for the season.

Games one and two with St Louis are Saturday and Sunday in Philadelphia. Three and four in St Louis Tuesday and Wednesday. Game five would be here on Friday.


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