Tag: Clay Condrey

And this year if you could win the World Series twice I think everyone will be happy with that

Did Ruben Amaro take a Phillies team that won the World Series and make it better? I think he did. Whether or you agree with that opinion or not, the Phillies are on pace to win more games in 2009 than they did in 2008. After last night’s game the Phillies are on pace to go 95-67 on the year, which would give them three more wins than they had in 2008.

With a win on Tuesday night the Phillies also did something they hadn’t done since the 1993 season. They went 23 games above .500. Here’s the most games above .500 they’ve been for each of the last 17 years:

Year Most games
above .500
1993 35
1994 3
1995 19
1996 5
1997 1
1998 5
1999 13
2000 0
2001 17
2002 3
2003 16
2004 10
2005 14
2006 9
2007 16
2008 22
2009 23

After topping out at 22 games above .500 in 2008, the Phils hit 23 games above .500 this week. But is the team better than the other teams in the last 17 seasons? Better than last year’s team? For each of the seasons through the last time they were 23 games above .500 or better, here’s the average number of runs the Phillies have scored and allowed per game, the difference between those numbers and how that difference compares to the other seasons in the group:

Year RS/G RA/G Diff Diff Rank
1993 5.41 4.57 0.85 1
1994 4.53 4.32 0.21 9
1995 4.27 4.57 -0.30 13
1996 4.01 4.88 -0.86 16
1997 4.12 5.19 -1.06 17
1998 4.40 4.99 -0.59 14
1999 5.19 5.22 -0.03 11
2000 4.37 5.12 -0.75 15
2001 4.60 4.44 0.17 10
2002 4.41 4.50 -0.09 12
2003 4.88 4.30 0.58 4
2004 5.19 4.82 0.36 7
2005 4.98 4.48 0.50 5
2006 5.34 5.01 0.33 8
2007 5.51 5.07 0.44 6
2008 4.93 4.20 0.73 3
2009 5.12 4.36 0.76 2

So, for example, the 1993 team scored an average of 5.41 runs per game and allowed an average of 4.57 runs per game. The difference between the average number of runs they scored and allowed is 0.85 and of the 17 teams in the list the 0.85 difference is the best (ranked one of 17).

After the 1993 team the 2009 Phillies are the team in the group with the best differential between the average number of runs they scored and allowed.

Amaro obviously didn’t do it all himself. The players, for example, deserve most of the credit. Still, just about everything has come up roses for Amaro in his first year as GM. There have been two enormous decisions that Amaro has made so far for 2009 and both of them have worked out really well for the Phillies. First, the Phillies brought in Ibanez to take over for Burrell. Despite the long slump with the bat, Ibanez has been better offensively and defensively. Second, the Phillies needed to make a deal for a pitcher at the deadline and did they ever — Amaro deftly navigated a dicey situation with Roy Halladay and pulled an ace in Cliff Lee without giving up the farm.

It’s hard to get too excited about it when Francisco is on-basing .261 with the team, but I think the addition of Francisco is going to be an important one down the stretch. The Phillies had an enormous need for a right-handed hitter and Francisco was a great fit. The Phils also answered the questions about who would be the fifth starter in Amaro’s first year — whoever was responsible for the decision to plug Happ into the role, Happ has gone 8-4 with a 2.81 ERA and a 1.20 ratio in his 19 starts with the team.

I wasn’t a fan of the Ronny Paulino for Jack Taschner deal, but I think it’s pretty tough to find much criticism for what Amaro has done this year. Even if the Phillies somehow tanked and didn’t make the playoffs or got bounced out of the playoffs early I don’t think I’d feel like that happened because the team was poorly constructed. I think there may be one exception to that and one big test left, which is what they are going to do at the back of the bullpen with Lidge. Lidge has been awful almost all year long and if a weak performance from Lidge costs the Phils in the post-season I think the team will have opened itself up to some criticism.

Kyle Drabek and Michael Taylor won the Paul Owens Award for the best pitcher and position player in the Phillies’ minor league system. Drabeck appeared in 25 games between Single-A and Double-A and went 12-3 with a 3.19 ERA and a 1.21 ratio. Drabek turns 22 in December. Taylor played mostly at Double-A but also at Triple-A this season and hit 320/395/549 with 20 home runs and 21 steals. He turns 24 in December.

The article linked above says that Condrey and Bastardo will both make rehab appearances today. It also seems to suggest that the Phillies might have problems finding space for both Condrey and Walker on the post-season roster if there is a post-season roster and both are healthy. If both are healthy I would be surprised if both are not on the post-season roster.

The worn reborn?

Cole Hamels made a brilliant start for the Phillies last night, but they have been a less frequent this year coming off of a 2008 season in which Hamels was just fantastic. The Phillies won the fifth game of the World Series on October 29, 2008. Hamels went six innings in the game and was announced World Series MVP that night. He turned 25-years-old almost two months later, on December 27, 2008.

Hamels was a monster in ’08, first in the regular season and then in the post-season. The 24-year-old threw 227 1/3 innings in the regular season, going 14-10 in 33 starts with a 3.09 ERA and a 1.08 ratio. The Phillies wouldn’t have won the World Series without him as he tossed 35 post-season innings with a 1.80 ERA and an 0.91 ratio.

Only one pitcher in the National League threw more regular season innings than Hamels, but Johan Santana, who threw seven more frames than Hamels in the regular season, didn’t throw any in the post-season. Among pitchers who pitched at least part of the year in the AL, Roy Halladay threw about 19 more innings in the regular season than Hamels, but also didn’t pitch in the playoffs. Workhorse CC Sabathia led all baseball in innings pitched with 253 and added 3 2/3 more in the post-season to give him a total of 256 2/3 between the regular and post-season. That’s still not as many as Hamels, who threw 262 1/3 innings between the regular and post-seasons to lead everyone. A lot of the other guys weren’t 24-years-old.

The 2009 season has been a different story than 2008 for Hamels and that must have a whole lot to do with how many innings he threw last year, mustn’t it? Between 2004 and 2008 there were ten pitchers who threw 220 innings when they were in their age 25 season or younger. Here’s a look at their ERA, ratio and strikeouts per nine innings in the year they did it and the year after — the seven who got worse the next year are in the top group and the three who got better, Lincecum, Haren and Buehrle, are in a group at the bottom:




ERA next


Ratio next


SO/9 next


Hamels (24)








Willis (24)








Willis (23)








Zambrano (24)








Garland (25)








Sheets (25)








Santana (25)








Lincecum (24)








Haren (25)








Buehrle (25)







So in seven of those ten seasons the player had a worse ERA and a worse ratio the season after he threw more than 220 innings at age 25 or younger. The three guys at the bottom each got better in both ERA and ratio the year after (except for Dan Haren’s ratio, which stayed at 1.21 in both 2006 and 2007).

Just three of the ten pitchers struck out more batters the next season per nine innings than they had the previous season (Haren, Zambrano and Garland). Willis’s numbers show 6.4 strikeouts per nine for 2006, but his rate was down a tiny bit in 2007.

Hamels numbers for ERA and ratio have taken a big hit compared to the other six pitchers who were worse after throwing a huge number of innings at a young age. Even after a brilliant start last night, his ERA for 2009 is still up about 146% from last year. The only change in ERA that is worse than that is Willis’s difference between 2005 and 2006 — his ERA went up 147%, but he still threw to a 3.87 ERA in 2006 after a ton of innings in ’05 at age 23. Willis’s ’05-’06 difference in ratio is also the only one that is worse than Hamels for ’08 and ’09. Willis saw his ratio rise 126% compared to 124% for Hamels.

So of the seven pitchers who got worse, Willis probably got the most worse from ’05 to ’06, but Hamels from ’08 to ’09 was second.

The other thing that I think is critical is how many innings Hamels threw in the post-season. The 227 1/3 innings that Hamels threw in the regular season is a lot. But the 35 innings he threw in the post-season is a ton. Forgetting age, the last time that any player threw that many innings in the post-season was 2003 when Josh Beckett threw 42 2/3. Beckett was just 23 years-old, but he had thrown just 142 innings in the regular season.

So has there ever been a player 25 or younger that threw 220 innings in the regular season and then threw 35 or more in the post-season? No drum roll, please, cause while I’m sure there’s someone out there who knows the answer I’m also sure it isn’t me. What I do know is that there’s nobody 25 or under that threw 220 innings in the regular season and then threw 38 or more innings in the post-season that year. Baseball-Reference’s list only goes to the top ten and the guys at the bottom of the list threw 38 innings in the post-season. Of the guys that threw at least 38 innings in the post-season, Fernando Valenzuela may be the closest to doing it. In 1981 Valenzuela threw 40 2/3 innings in the post-season at age 20 but had thrown only 192 1/3 frames in the regular season.

This suggests that all three of Condrey, Romero and Bastardo are expected to return this season.

Brett Myers struck out five in two innings for Reading last night without allowing a hit or a walk.

And down the stretch they come

The Phillies still have forty games left to play, almost a quarter of the season, but it sure looks like they’re going to the playoffs again in 2009. A look at the standings shows there are eight teams in the National League within eight games of a spot in the playoffs. The Phils, Cardinals and Dodgers lead the three divisions. The Rockies would be the Wild Card team if the season ended today and Atlanta, Florida, Chicago and San Francisco are all less than eight games behind in the chase for the playoffs.

The table below shows what those eight teams did in the first half of the season. Their record, winning percentage, the number of runs they scored per game, the number of runs they allowed per game and the difference between the number of runs they scored per game and the number of runs they allowed per game.

PHI 48 38 .558 5.35 4.79 0.56
ATL 43 45 .489 4.24 4.31 -0.07
FLA 46 44 .511 4.61 4.76 -0.14
STL 49 42 .538 4.43 4.12 0.31
CHI 43 43 .500 4.13 4.10 0.02
LAD 56 32 .636 5.03 3.84 1.19
COL 47 41 .534 5.02 4.60 0.42
SF 49 39 .557 4.18 3.68 0.50

The Dodgers were the best team in the NL in the first half of the season by a wide margin. Their pitching was almost as good as the Giants and their offense was better than any team except for the Phillies. They scored 1.19 runs more per game on average than they allowed. The Phillies were second-best in the NL in that differential and the Dodgers were more than twice as good as the Phillies.

Atlanta, Florida and Chicago all had weak first halves of the season compared to the rest of the group. The Giants had fantastic pitching, the best in the league, but a weak offense. The Cards were in the middle of the pack in both scoring and preventing runs while the Rockies put a lot of runs on the board but allowed more per game than any teams other than the Phils and Marlins. The Phils scored the most runs per game of the eight teams but also allowed the most.

Here’s what the eight teams have done since the All-Star break:

PHI 24 12 .667 5.19 3.56 1.64
ATL 23 13 .639 5.28 3.44 1.83
FLA 19 15 .559 5.09 4.71 0.38
STL 23 12 .657 4.63 3.60 1.03
CHI 19 17 .528 4.94 4.47 0.47
LAD 18 19 .486 4.32 3.78 0.54
COL 24 13 .649 5.30 4.00 1.30
SF 18 19 .486 3.70 3.95 -0.24

The Cards, Phillies, Braves and Rockies have all been fantastic in the second half. Each of the four teams has played to a winning percentage of .639 or higher. Of the four teams, the Braves have a 23-13 record to give them the worst winning percentage of the group. By run differential per game, though, Atlanta has been the best of the eight teams since the break. They have been the best of the eight teams at preventing runs while only the Rockies have scored more. The Braves have played 36 games since the break and won 23, scoring 190 runs and allowing 124. Pythagoras has them expecting to have won more games — 25-11 rather than their actual 23-13.

While those four teams have taken off, the Dodgers and the Giants have tanked out West with each team under .500 in the second half. The Giants still can’t score runs, but their pitching is no longer outstanding compared to the rest of the group. After being the best team at preventing runs in the first half of the year, the Phils, Braves, Cards and Dodgers have all done a better job keeping teams from scoring in the second half.

The Dodgers were second-best of the eight in preventing runs in the first half, but have been passed by the Phils, Braves and Cards in the second. They have a monster offense in the first half of the year, scoring more runs per game than any team other than the Phillies. The hitting has been meager since the break and the 4.32 runs per game the Dodgers have scored is worse than every team in the group other than the Giants.

The Cubs are just two games over .500 for the year at 62-60. The Fish have played to a .559 winning percentage in the second half, but their ability to prevent runs was seventh-best in the first half of the year and last in the group in the second. Not sure they have enough offense to make up for that.

Here’s what the numbers for the eight teams look like when you combine the first and second halves of the year:

PHI 72 50 .590 5.30 4.43 0.88
ATL 66 58 .532 4.54 4.06 0.48
FLA 65 59 .524 4.74 4.74 0.00
STL 72 54 .571 4.48 3.98 0.51
CHI 62 60 .508 4.37 4.21 0.16
LAD 74 51 .592 4.82 3.82 1.00
COL 71 54 .568 5.10 4.42 0.68
SF 67 58 .536 4.04 3.76 0.28

It’s hard to argue that anyone but the Dodgers have been the best team in the NL this season. Despite their struggles since the break, LA has the best winning percentage on the season and the best differential per game in the number of runs they’ve scored and allowed. The Phils are aren’t far behind, though.

So who’s going to the playoffs in the NL this season? We’re going to have to wait and see. If I had to guess, though, the guess that things will stay the same seems like the best by a wide margin — the Phils, Cards and Dodgers win the divisions with the Rockies as the Wild Card team. I’m going to be real surprised if the Fish, Cubs or Giants make the playoffs. Neither are likely, but I think the other two scenarios that are more possible are 1) The Rockies win the West with the Dodgers as the Wild Card or, a lot less likely than that, 2) The Braves pass either the Rockies or the Dodgers to win the Wild Card.

This article makes it sound like we shouldn’t be expecting Condrey or Romero to return from the DL any day now.

Brett Myers threw a scoreless inning for Lakewood yesterday and says he is throwing 93-94 miles per hour in this article.

Walks in high supply in July

The Phillies are putting tons of runs on the board in July. Offensively it has been their best month of the year. Here’s the number of runs they’ve scored per game for the season (nothing in this post includes results from yesterday’s games):

Month R per game NL rank R
per game
July 6.18 1
June 4.77 3
May 5.29 2
April 5.95 1

So the Phillies must be doing something better this month than they have earlier in the season. It’s not hitting home runs, though. The Phillies rate of home runs is still real high compared to the rest of the NL in July, but it’s down compared to the three previous months. Hits and walks per game are both up significantly, though:

Month HR/G NL Rank H/G NL Rank BB/G NL Rank
July 1.41 1 9.73 3 4.41 2
June 1.46 1 8.81 7 3.58 5
May 1.43 1 8.93 7 3.89 5
April 1.45 1 9.30 5 4.00 8

So the Phillies have hit a lot of home runs this month, but fewer per game than they have other months. They have scored a lot more runs though.

The number of extra-base hits the Phillies get is up since June, but not up compared to the other two months of the season. What is up dramatically is the number of singles the Phillies are hitting per game:
















The percentage of their hits that the Phillies get that go for extra-bases is at the team’s lowest level of the season. They’ve had about 36.0% of hits go for extra-bases in July compared to 36.2% in June, 45.6% in May and 38.2% in April.

It’s the walk rate, though, that’s up even more than the rate of hits per game. The Phillies have walked 379 times in their first 96 games, a rate of about 3.95 per game. They’ve gotten 879 hits, which is a rate of about 9.15 per game. This month they’ve gotten about 9.73 hits per game, which is about 1.06 times their rate for the season, but their rate of 4.41 walks per game is about 1.12 times their rate of drawing walks. So it’s been a huge amount of home runs all season long, but compared to the rates of hits and walks for the season it’s the walks that are up more in July.

This article mentions Cliff Lee and Jarrod Washburn as possible trade candidates for the Phillies.

Brett Myers will throw a bullpen session on Thursday. The linked article also suggests that Romero is the only member of the DL’ed trio of Romero, Condrey and Durbin that we should expect to return soon.

This suggests the Phillies may be interested in George Sherrill.

More details have been published about the fight near Citizens Bank Park on Saturday that left a 22-year-old man dead.

Fourteenth of July

The Phils were 39-37 after losing on July 2, which was three weeks ago today. At the end of the day they were tied with the Florida Marlins for first place in the NL East, a game ahead of the Mets and two games ahead of the Braves, who had just swept them in Atlanta.

That feels like it shouldn’t be possible. But it is. The Phillies have played 16 games since then. A 14-2 run has them in commanding position in the division with the second place Braves 5 1/2 games out.

Most recently they took two out of three against the Cubs at home. The Phillies rolled to a blowout win in game one, won a dramatic game two with a walkoff homer before dropping an ugly game three yesterday.

The Phillies are have had a fantastic month. Yesterday was a bit worrisome, though, a virtual who’s-who of things to worry about on a pitching staff that has been awesome of late. Moyer, Durbin and Lidge all struggled, which was especially frustrating to see with Moyer and Durbin each coming off of outstanding performances.

Still, the Phils have enough things going right to overcome the struggles of Moyer and Lidge and, to a lesser degree, Durbin. Joe Blanton has a 2.32 ERA and a 1.11 ratio in his last ten starts. Rodrigo Lopez has made three good starts in three chances to help fortify the back of the rotation. Rollins and Victorino are both hitting at least .350 for the month at the top of the order. Chan Ho Park has just been awesome out of the pen. In his last 16 appearances he’s gone 24 2/3 innings with a 1.82 ERA and an 0.89 ratio while striking out 28. Eyre hasn’t been charged with an earned run in his last 22 appearances.

The Phillies are 53-39 on the season after taking two of three from the Cubs. After winning game two they were 15 games over .500 on the year, which was their best mark of the season. The are in first place in the NL East, 5 1/2 games ahead of the second-place Braves. The Marlins are six back and the Mets ten games out.

The Phils blew the Cubs out in game one, winning 10-1. Ibanez, Ruiz and Howard all hit home runs, which accounted for five of the ten runs. Lopez made another good start. He allowed a run over six innings. Durbin followed him and closed the game out with three scoreless innings to earn a save.

The Phillies won the second game 4-1 on a three-run homer from Werth in the bottom of the thirteenth. Rollins put the Phillies up 1-0 with a home run in the third. Blanton gave up a leadoff single to Ryan Theriot to start the fourth and Theriot came around to score on a two-out double by Kosuke Fukudome to tie the game at 1-1. Blanton departed after seven and the bullpen was brilliant after he left. They went six innings without allowing a hit or a walk. Lidge hit a batter in the ninth, but the runner was quickly erased by a double-play. Park was especially fantastic, striking out five in three perfect innings. In the bottom of the thirteenth the first two Phils went in order before Howard and Ibanez drew back-to-back walks. It put men on first and second for Werth and Werth hit a 1-1 pitch out to left.

The Cubs won 10-5 yesterday. Moyer gave up four in the fourth and another run in the top of the fifth. The Phils had gotten it to 5-3 by the time the seventh started, but Durbin had a miserable outing. He allowed two hits and walked three without getting an out, leading to three more runs that put Chicago up 8-3. The Phils scored two more in the bottom of the seventh to make it 8-5. They loaded the bases in the bottom of the eighth, but Howard grounded out to leave the runners stranded. Lidge had another weak outing in the ninth and the Cubs tacked on two more runs — Lidge couldn’t make it out of the frame and Madson had to come in and get the last out.

The Phillies pitchers went 31 innings in the series, throwing to a 3.19 ERA and a 1.16 ratio. They allowed two runs in 22 innings in the first two games and then allowed ten runs yesterday. They didn’t allow a home run in the three games.

They got two great starts, one from Lopez and one from Blanton, and a weak outing from Moyer. The starters combined to go 18 innings with a 3.00 ERA and a 1.33 ratio. They allowed seven runs over three games, five of which were allowed by Moyer.

Lopez went six innings in game one, allowing a run on five hits and three walks. He has a 2.60 ERA and a 1.21 ratio in three starts for the Phillies.

Blanton was also great in game two. He went seven innings and allowed a run on five hits and didn’t walk a batter. He started June with a 6.86 ERA. It’s now down to 4.24. He’s allowed two runs in 21 2/3 innings over his last three starts and given up just 13 hits.

Moyer made a weak start yesterday. He allowed five runs on eight hits and three walks. Only four of the runs were earned. Two of his last three starts have been real bad with a brilliant start against the Marlins in the middle.

Like the starters, the pen was great in the first two games and not in the third. Overall they threw 13 innings with a 3.46 ERA and an 0.92 ratio. They allowed five runs that were charged to Lidge and Durbin in game three. As a group they gave up just six hits in 13 innings but walked six.

Romero did not pitch in the series. He’s gotten one out since July 16.

Eyre entered game three with the bases loaded, nobody out and the Phils down 7-3. He got Jake Fox to hit a sac fly for the first out, then got Koylie Hill on a line drive to third and struck out the pitcher Carlos Zambrano to end the frame. He came back to pitch the eighth and allowed a single and a walk but kept the Cubs off the board.

Eyre still has allowed runs in just two of 30 appearances on the season. He’s given up one run in 22 appearances since the end of April.

Durbin went three innings in game one and was fantastic. He allowed one single and didn’t walk a batter.

After throwing 33 pitches in game one, Durbin came back in game three and was not fantastic. He started the seventh with the Phillies down 5-3. He faced five batters: walk, walk, double, walk, single. He left with the bases loaded, nobody out and the Phils down 7-3. Thanks to a nice job by Eyre Durbin was only charged with three runs in the inning.

Park pitched a 1-2-3 tenth in game two with the score tied at 1-1. Ibanez made a great diving catch for the third out to take a double away from Koylie Hill. He came back to pitch the eleventh and struck out two as he set the Cubs down in order. He struck out two more in the twelfth.

Just an outstanding outing for Park. He went three innings and struck out five without allowing a hit or a walk. Over his last eight appearances he’s allowed two runs in 13 1/3 innings (1.35 ERA and a an 0.75 ratio).

Condrey got the win in game two. He threw three ground balls in a 1-2-3 thirteenth before Werth’s homer won it in the bottom of the inning.

He also pitched the sixth inning yesterday in game three. He entered with the Phils down 5-1 and set the Cubs down in order.

He’s allowed one hit and no walks in three scoreless innings this month.

Madson pitched the eighth inning of game two with the score tied at 1-1 and set Chicago down in order.

He also got the final out in the top of the ninth yesterday. He took over for Lidge with two outs, the bases loaded and the Phils down 10-5 and got Aramis Ramirez on a popup.

He hasn’t been charged with a run in nine of his last ten appearances.

Lidge started the ninth inning in game two with the score knotted at 1-1. He hit Aramis Ramirez with one out. Fukudome was next and he hit a ball hard back through the middle, but it hit Lidge’s foot and went right to Rollins who was covering second with Ramirez running. Rollins turned the double-play to end the frame.

Lidge started the ninth with the Phillies down 8-5. With one out the Cubs loaded the bases on a hit batter, a walk and a single before a single by Reed Johnson moved everyone up a base and made it 9-5. Lidge got a strikeout for the second out before walking Derrek Lee to force in another run. Madson took over with two down and the bases loaded.

July has been the best month of the year for Lidge by ERA this season. He has a 5.87 ERA in nine July appearances.

The Phillies scored 19 runs in the three-game set.

Rollins was 3-for-13 with a home run in the series. He’s hitting 235/290/370 on the year. 351/437/568 in July.

Victorino went 5-for-14 with a double to improve his line to 307/375/455. He’s hitting .360 this month.

Utley was 1-for-13 with a walk. 302/417/554.

Howard went 2-for-12 with seven strikeouts, a home run and three walks. 259/347/531.

Ibanez made a great diving catch with two outs in the top of the tenth in game two, taking a double away from Koylie Hill. Dobbs started in left yesterday in game three. Ibanez was 1-for-9 with a home run and two walks in the set. 309/372/662. If he slugs .662 all season long it will be a career high.

Werth won game two with a three-run homer in the bottom of the thirteenth. 4-for-10 with a home run and five walks. 266/378/508. He’s hitting just .266 this month, but with a .444 on-base percentage and a .603 slugging percentage.

Feliz was 4-for-12 with a walk and two RBI. 289/337/407.

Ruiz caught the first two games of the series and was 2-for-7 with a double and a home run. 228/330/375 on the year.

Bako started yesterday. He was 1-for-6 in the series and is hitting just 206/270/235 for the year. One extra-base hit, a double, in 34 at-bats.

Bruntlett was 0-for-2 in the series to drop his line on the year to 128/202/192.

Mayberry was 1-for-1 with a single. 192/236/462 on the year. He’s one of three players on the Phillies bench with an on-base percentage for the year of .270 or worse. I’m just saying.

Dobbs started in left yesterday in game three. 2-for-7 with two RBI in the series. 274/313/453 on the year. He’s hitting .341 in July after hitting .342 in June. One of four players on the Phillies bench with and on-base percentage of .313 or worse.

Stairs was 0-for-2 in the series. 270/425/492. 1-for-9 with five strikeouts and four walks in July.

Run rundown

You’ve probably heard multiple times by now that the Phillies are some-really-big-number and some-really-small-number when Jimmy Rollins scores a run. That’s fantastic news. Some-really-big-number and some-really-small-number must be really good, don’t you think? If it wasn’t they would have to stop mentioning it all the time, wouldn’t they?

The Phils are actually 37-8 this year in games when Rollins scores a run (the charts in this post don’t include the results from last night’s game). That’s an impressive .822 winning percentage. The team’s record is pretty good when any of their starting eight scores, though. Here’s a look at the number of games each of their starters have played, runs they’ve scored, the number of games they’ve played in which they scored a run and the team’s record and winning percentage in games that player scored at least one run:

  Games R Games
Rollins 88 55 45 37 8 .822
Victorino 88 66 49 38 11 .776
Utley 88 65 50 38 12 .760
Howard 89 57 44 34 10 .773
Ibanez 68 57 40 28 12 .700
Werth 88 61 46 32 14 .696
Feliz 89 38 31 26 5 .839
Ruiz 58 14 12 11 1 .917

Compared to the rest of the group, the .822 winning percentage in games when Rollins scores a run is high. Not as high as when Feliz or Ruiz scores a run, but high. Things may have changed after Werth drove in himself, Howard and Ibanez in a win last night, but going into last night’s game the two hitters at the top of the lineup (Rollins and Victorino) and the two hitters at the bottom of the lineup (Feliz and Ruiz) had the highest winning percentages for the team in games where they score and the four guys in the middle had the lowest.

The lowest winning percentage of the group is for Werth at .696. If a team played to a .696 winning percentage over 162 games it would go 113-49.

The guys in the middle are the ones scoring the runs for the Phils. For the eight players, here’s the number of runs they’ve scored per game, the percentage of games they’ve played in that they’ve scored at least one run and the number of plate appearances per run (they are order by the number of plate appearances per run scored):

scored per game
% of games
scored run(s)
PA per R
Ibanez 0.84 59% 5.35
Utley 0.74 57% 6.03
Victorino 0.75 56% 6.24
Werth 0.69 52% 6.36
Howard 0.64 49% 6.89
Rollins 0.63 51% 7.29
Feliz 0.43 35% 9.21
Ruiz 0.24 21% 15.07

The Phillies have five players in the top ten in runs scored in the NL after last night’s game — Victorino, Utley, Werth, Ibanez and Howard (Ibanez, Howard and David Wright are tied for tenth). Rollins is right behind them, just two runs scored out of the top ten. The runs scored for Ibanez is probably the most ridiculous — he’s in the top ten in the league despite the fact that he’s played about twenty games less than most regulars.

This says that the Phillies may have inquired about Josh Willingham, who would be a perfect cure for the righty ills of the Phils. It also suggests that Condrey continues to have a problem with his oblique and the Phillies considered putting him on the DL and calling up Kendrick.

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