Tag: Carlos Ruiz

Who’s not on first very often?

In this post I pointed out there was a difference of 187 total walks between 2007, when the Phillies had the best walk rate in the NL, and 2012, when they had the 15th-best walk rate. The first base and left field positions combined walked 141 fewer times in 2012 than they had in 2007.

At first base, the Phillies drew 56 fewer walks in 2012 than they had in 2007. In 2007, the 113 walks they drew at the position was second in the league. In 2012, the 57 walks they drew at the position was tenth.

Here’s how the plate appearances at first base broke down for the Phillies in 2012 and the walk rates of the players who got chances at the position:

Player % of PA BB%
Howard 42.5 8.7
Wigginton 30.8 9.6
Mayberry 11.7 5.1
Others (4) 15.0 7.9
Total PHI 100 8.4
NL AVG 1B - 9.3

Of the four groups, only one, Wigginton, posted a walk rate about the league average of 9.3% while playing first base for the Phillies last year. He had some other issues, though, like being not real good offensively or defensively. And high walk rate or not, he ended the year having hit .235 and on-based .314.

All of the four players in the “Other” category were under the league average of 9.3% with the exception of Thome. He walked in 3 of his 13 plate appearances while playing first base for the Phillies in 2013, which is about 23.1%.

The walk rates for Thome and Wigginton aren’t likely to help the 2013 Phillies much. As much as we might want to see Mayberry or Ruf get some chances at first against lefties, Ryan Howard is likely to be the guy there just about every day he’s able to play. And his walk rate is never going back to where it was in 2006 and 2007.

Howard finished fourth in the NL in walks in both 2006 and 2007. In those two years combined, he got 1,352 plate appearances and walked in 215 (about 15.9%) of them.

Howard’s walk rate in those years benefited from an enormous rate of intentional walks. In 2012, he had 25 total walks in 292 plate appearances. In 2006 he was intentionally walked 37 times and in 2007 he was intentionally walked 35 times.

His 8.6% walk rate in 2012 was the worst it has been for any year in his career in which he got at least 50 plate appearances.

In this post from January I pointed out that Howard has been pretty miserable against left-handed pitching in four of the last five years. His walk rate against lefties has also taken a plunge.

Over the last seven years, his walk rate against right-handed pitching has stayed high. Not so against lefties, where his walk rate has dropped three straight years and wound up at a miserable 4.7% in 2012:

Year BB% vs L BB% vs R
2012 4.7 10.8
2011 6.5 13.7
2010 7.9 10.4
2009 9.9 11.1
2008 8.7 13.3
2007 13.0 18.7
2006 9.8 18.0

2010 is the year of the last five in which Howard has been non-awful against left-handed pitching. His success that year had a lot more to do with the combination of good power and an average in the .260s against lefties than the walks he drew. In 2010, Howard hit 264/333/492 against lefties with 12 homers in 216 plate appearances. 2008 was probably second best — that year he delivered similar power against lefties and walked at a slightly lower rate, but hit just .224 again left-handed pitching. In five of the last six seasons, Howard has hit .225 or worse against lefties.

In 2010, his BABIP against left-handed pitching was .320. In 2011, Howard hit .224 against lefties despite a BABIP of .313 against them. In 2012 he was down to .173 against southpaws with a BABIP of .229. Granted, not being able to run at all probably hurt him some in 2012, but it’s tough to feel like things are going in the right direction for Howard, especially against lefties.

Ruiz feels bad about his suspension and wants to bring a championship back to Philadelphia.

Halladay suggests he doesn’t see himself pitching anywhere other than Philadelphia in the coming years in this article.


Oh, for it to be 2008 again

Yesterday’s post suggested that if you look at Young’s overall WAR numbers over the last five seasons, he doesn’t fare that well compared to the rest of the Phillies. That, in large part, is due to the fact that he’s been a pretty miserable defensive player of late, posting a negative dWAR in four of the last five years. Looking at the top five hitters by WAR on the Phillies over the last five seasons means he’s competing with players who accumulate significant value from their defense (Utley, Rollins, Ruiz and Victorino especially), which Young has not been able to do.

If you look just at the offensive numbers, Young’s bids to get into the top five among Phillie hitters in recent years improve quite a bit. Arguably, Young would have been the best hitter on the Phillies in 2011 among the players that got 400 plate appearances — 2011 wasn’t that long ago and it saw Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Carlos Ruiz, Raul Ibanez, Placido Polanco and Shane Victorino all get at least 400 plate appearances with the Phils.

The table below shows where Young’s oWAR for all Phillies hitters and wOBA (for hitters with at least 400 plate appearances) ranks among Phillies for the last five seasons:

Year Rank oWAR wOBA
2008 1 Utley 5.7 Utley .389
2008 2 Rollins 3.5 Burrell .375
2008 3 Victorino 3.3 Werth .374
2008 - Young 3.2 (4) Young .328 (7)
2009 1 Utley 6.0 Utley .394
2009 2 Werth 4.0 Howard .392
2009 3 Howard 3.9 Ibanez .378
2009 - Young 4.0 (T-2) Young .385 (3)
2010 1 Werth 4.9 Werth .396
2010 2 Utley 3.9 Utley .370
2010 3 Ruiz 3.2 Ruiz/Howard .368
2010 - Young 2.7 (T-4) Young .336 (6)
2011 1 Victorino 5.0 Victorino .368
2011 2 Rollins 3.1 Howard .355
2011 3 Utley 2.9 Utley .338
2011 - Young 3.5 (2) Young .369 (1)
2012 1 Ruiz 4.0 Ruiz .398
2012 2 Rollins 3.1 Pence .340
2012 3 Utley 2.0 Rollins .322
2012 - Young -1.0 (26) Young .297 (7)

Young has been really good offensively in two of the last five years, hitting 338/380/474 in 2011 and 322/374/518 with 22 homers in 2009.

By oWAR, he would have been in the top two among Phillie hitters twice in the past five years and in the top four in four of the five.

By wOBA, he would have been the best Phillie hitter with at least 400 plate appearances in 2011 and the third best in 2009.

In 2012 he was unarguably terrible, but his career wOBA of .344, had he produced that and not the actual .297 he did put up, would have been second best on the team behind only Ruiz.

Young has had four really good offensive years, only one of which has come in the last five seasons. 2004, 2006 and 2009 were all really good and 2005, when he put up a 331/385/513 line, was probably the best.


Sandy, the pitching angels have lost their desire for us

Bruce Springsteen. Sort of.

The table below shows, for each of the past five years, the four pitchers who have gotten the most starts for the Phillies that season and their WAR for the year as calculated by Baseball-Reference:

Year Pitcher Starts WAR
2012 Hamels 31 4.2
2012 Lee 30 4.2
2012 Kendrick 25 1.3
2012 Halladay 25 0.7
2012 Total for group 101 10.4
2011 Halladay 32 8.5
2011 Lee 32 8.3
2011 Hamels 31 6.2
2011 Oswalt 23 2.0
2011 Total for group 118 25.0
2010 Halladay 33 8.3
2010 Hamels 33 5.3
2010 Kendrick 31 0.2
2010 Blanton 28 -0.2
2010 Total for group 125 13.6
2009 Hamels 32 1.7
2009 Blanton 31 2.4
2009 Moyer 25 0.1
2009 Happ 23 4.0
2009 Total for group 111 8.2
2008 Hamels 33 4.0
2008 Moyer 33 2.5
2008 Myers 30 0.4
2008 Kendrick 30 -1.7
2008 Total for group 126 5.2

Important to note is that the WAR for the pitcher includes all of his appearances for the season, not just his starts. So, for example, Kendrick made 37 appearances in 2012 and only 25 of them were starts. His WAR for the year was 1.3 and that includes all 37 appearances, not just the 25 starts.

Again, the Phillies went to the World Series in 2008 and again in 2009 and they did it without outstanding starting pitching. This message will repeat. Happ (in 2009) and Hamels (in 2008) were the only two pitchers, starter or relievers, to post a WAR for the season better than 2.5 in either year.

Led by Hamels and Halladay, the top four was a lot better in 2010. Halladay, Hamels and Lee all had superb years in 2011.

Halladay was, as you may have noticed, way off in 2012. Hamels wasn’t as good as he had been in 2011 or 2010. Lee wasn’t as good as he had been in 2011, but the top for of the rotation were still better than they been in 2009 and a lot better than they had been in 2008.

It’s easy for some of us (by which I mean me) to forget that Lee didn’t throw a pitch for the Phillies in 2010. They Phillies have only had two years where Halladay, Hamels and Lee comprised the core of the rotation. One of those years was great for the Phillies until they were bounced out of the playoffs in the first round. The other was 2012, which is best forgotten if at all possible.

Halladay came into 2012 having not put up a WAR worse than 5.9 since 2008 — in ’08 he was an All-Star, finished second in Cy Young voting in the AL (losing to Indian and 22-game winner Cliff Lee) and seventh in WAR for pitchers across both leagues. Last year his WAR was 0.7, which is the worst mark of his career since he threw to a 10.64 ERA as a 23-year-old with the Blue Jays in 2000.

Rollins won his fourth Gold Glove.

The Phillies picked up the $5 million option on Ruiz and declined the $5.5 million option on Polanco. They will pay Polanco a $1 million buyout. The same article suggests that free agent Juan Pierre is not likely to be back with the Phillies.

This article suggests that Worley will stay in Philadelphia to rehab his elbow coming off of surgery.

This article suggests the Phillies have $135.35 million committed to ten players for next season, including Lee ($25 million), Halladay ($20 million), Howard ($20 million), Hamels ($19.5 million), Utley ($15 million), Papelbon ($13 million), Rollins ($11 million), Ruiz ($5 million), Kyle Kendrick ($4.5 million) and Laynce Nix ($1.35 million).

That’s $40 million committed to Halladay and Howard. In 2012, Howard’s Baseball-Reference calculated WAR was -1.2 and Halladay’s was 0.7.

This article quotes Amaro suggesting that that center field will have to be addressed externally. The writer goes on to list possible candidates, including Bourn, Pagan, Upton, Victorino, Hamilton, Cabrera, Jacoby Ellsbury and Dexter Fowler.

This article looks at potential corner outfielders, including free agent Juan Pierre, Nick Swisher, Cody Ross, Torii Hunter, Ryan Ludwick, Jonny Gomes, Rual Ibanez, Ichiro Suzuki, Delmon Young, Josh Willingham and Alfonso Soriano.


Phils on their toes against the Fish (except for Howard)

The playoff hopes (dreams? fantasies? Tough to find the right word there) and Ryan Howard’s season both came to an end this weekend as the Phils were mathematically eliminated from the post-season. Howard dropped something heavy on his big toe and the Phillies took two of three from the Fish. Two of three wasn’t enough, though, the Phillies would have needed to take about eight out of three to keep their chances alive. With three games left to play, the Phils are six out for the Wild Card.

Lee pitched seven strong innings in the opener, but the Phils managed just one run in the game and fell 2-1.

Halladay allowed four runs over five innings in game two of the set, but the Phils got enough offense to overcome yet another rough start from the ace and won 9-5. Utley and Ruiz combined to go 4-for-9 in the game and drove in five runs.

Hamels was very strong yesterday, allowing a run over seven innings and getting his 17th win of the season as the Phils topped the Fish 4-1. Ruiz had three more hits in the game.

The Phillies are 80-79 on the year after beating the Miami Marlins 4-1 yesterday afternoon. The Phillies take two of the three in the series and are in third place in the NL East, 16 games behind the first-place Nationals. They have been eliminated from playoff contention.

Hamels got the start for the Phillies and went seven innings, allowing a run on five hits and a walk. Two of the hits went for extra-bases, both doubles. He struck out eight.

Up 3-0, Hamels struck out Gorkys Hernandez, Bryan Petersen and Jose Reyes in order in the bottom of the first.

He set the Marlins down in order in the second and again in the third.

Petersen singled to center with one out in the fourth and moved to third when Reyes followed with a double to left. Giancarlo Stanton was next and hit a ground ball to third. Orr fielded and threw home. Petersen was tagged out for the second out. It brought Carlos Lee to the plate with men on first and second. The runners moved up to second and third on an error by Hamels on a pickoff attempt before Lee singled to right. Reyes scored, cutting the lead to 3-1, but Brown threw Stanton out at the plate to end the inning.

Donovan Solano doubled to left to start the fifth. John Buck was next and flew to center for the first out with Solano tagging and moving up to third. Gil Velazquez followed with a walk, putting runners on the corners for the pitcher Nathan Eovaldi. Eovaldi struck out trying to bunt Velazquez to second for the second out. Hamels struck Hernandez out looking to leave the runners on the corners.

With one out in the sixth, Reyes bunted looking for a hit. Hamels fielded and threw wildly to first for his second error of the day, which left Reyes on second on the error. Reyes stole third before Stanton popped to Rollins with Reyes holding. Lee struck out looking to end the inning.

No RBI for Stanton with one out and the speedy Reyes on third.

Hamels set Miami down in order in the seventh.

Bastardo started the eighth up 4-1. Righty Austin Kearns hit for the pitcher Ryan Webb and popped to Utley for the first out. Bastardo struck out Hernandez and Petersen behind him.

Papelbon started the ninth with a three-run lead. Stanton and Lee singled back-to-back with one out, bringing Solano to the plate as the tying run with men on first and second. Papelbon got Solano swinging for the second out and Buck swinging to end the game.

The Phillies lineup against righty Nathan Eovaldi went (1) Rollins (2) Pierre (3) Utley (4) Ruiz (5) Brown (6) Schierholtz (7) Ruf (8) Orr. Ruf plays first with Howard out for the season after hurting his toe. Ruiz catches. Pierre in left against the righty with Brown in right and Schierholtz in center. Orr at third against the righty.

Rollins was the first batter of the game and walked. Pierre was next and singled to right. Rollins took third and Pierre moved up to second as the throw went to third. Utley flew to left for the first out, deep enough for Rollins to tag and score, putting the Phils up 1-0. Ruiz was next and doubled to left, plating Pierre. 2-0. Brown lined to short for the second out before Schierholtz singled to right. Ruiz scored from second and the Phils led 3-0. Ruf moved Schierholtz to second with a single, but Orr struck out swinging to leave both runners stranded.

The Phillies went in order in the second and third. Ruiz and Brown struck out back-to-back to end the third.

Orr singled to right with two outs in the fourth. Hamels struck out swinging to leave him at first.

The lead was cut to 3-1 when the Phils went in order in the fifth as Eovaldi struck out Pierre and Utley.

Ruiz singled to start the sixth, but the Phillies went in order behind him.

Lefty Dan Jennings started the seventh. Frandsen hit for Orr and grounded to first for the first out. Hamels struck out for the second before Rollins drew a walk. Pierre flew to left to leave Rollins at first.

Utley and Ruiz singled back-to-back off of lefty Michael Dunn to start the eighth. It put runners on the corners with nobody out for Brown. Brown flew to center for the first out, deep enough for Utley to tag and score, which extended the lead to 4-1. Schierholtz singled to right, putting runners on the corners again. Righty Ryan Webb came on to pitch to Webb. Webb grounded to third. Ruiz was caught up between third and home and eventually tagged out for the second out. It left men on second and third with two down for Frandsen. Frandsen lined to second to leave them stranded.

Heath Bell set the Phillies down in order in the ninth. Nix hit for Bastardo and grounded to second for the third out.

Rollins was 0-for-3 in the game and walked twice. 4-for-11 with three walks in the series. 250/316/427 for the year. 287/376/537 in September.

Pierre 1-for-4 with a strikeout. 1-for-6 with a walk in the series. 310/354/374 for the year. He hit .375 in 67 plate appearances in September.

Utley 1-for-3 with a walk yesterday and 3-for-11 with a walk in the series. 266/374/445 on the season.

Ruiz 3-for-4 with a double and an RBI. His double was the only extra-base hit of the game for the Phillies. 6-for-13 with two doubles in the set. 330/398/547 for the year. 278/348/479 over his last 161 plate appearances.

Brown 0-for-3 with an RBI. 1-for-7 with a walk and a triple in the series. 234/320/400.

Schierholtz 2-for-4 with an RBI in the game and 4-for-6 in the series. 248/313/391 for the year. 238/290/317 in 70 plate appearances with the Phillies. 175/206/238 against lefties for the year overall.

Ruf 1-for-4 with a single in the game. He started all three games in the set and went 3-for-12 with a double and four strikeouts. 8-for-25 for the year with two doubles and a home run. He still hasn’t walked yet. 320/308/520 in 26 plate appearances.

Orr 1-for-2 in the game. 2-for-4 with a double and two RBI in the series. 321/333/453 for the season.

Kendrick (10-12, 4.08) faces lefty John Lannan (4-0, 4.23) tonight at Nationals Park. Kendrick is not Cy Young and has been hit hard in two of his last three starts, throwing to a 6.59 ERA in those outings. He allowed three homers in two innings his last time out. Lannan started against Kendrick on September 26 and allowed two runs over 5 1/3 innings.


Ruf cut

Darin Ruf arrived on the Phillie scene last night, homering in his first career start as the Phils topped the Washington Nationals 6-3.

Ruf’s solo shot off of lefty Ross Detwiler tied the game at 1-1 in the bottom of the second. Ruiz hit a three-run shot in a four-run fourth as the Phils pulled ahead 5-1. Hamels allowed a pair of runs on four hits in the fifth, cutting the lead to 5-3, but Brown hit the third homer of the game for the Phils in the sixth, a solo blast that put the Phils up to stay at 6-3.

For Ruf it was his 40th home run of the season and the first hit of his career above Double-A.

Hamels went just five innings in the game. Five relievers combined to throw four scoreless innings in which they allowed one single and no walks after he left.

Through July 6, the Phillie bullpen threw to a 4.84 ERA over 213 1/3 innings. Since July 6, the bullpen has thrown 178 1/3 innings in which they have posted a 2.88 ERA.

The Phillies are 78-76 on the year after beating the Washington Nationals 6-3 last night. They are in third place in the NL East, 15 games out of first and 5 1/2 behind for the Wild Card.

Hamels got the start for the Phillies and went five innings, allowing three runs on seven hits and a walk. All seven hits were singles and he struck out six.

He struck Jayson Werth out swinging for the first out in the top of the first. Bryce Harper was next and singled to center. Ryan Zimmerman followed with a ground ball to third with Harper forced at second for the second out. Hamels struck Adam LaRoche out swinging to leave Zimmerman at first.

Hamels struck Michael Morse out swinging for the first out in the second. Ian Desmond flew to center for the second before Danny Espinosa walked. Espinosa stole second and scored when Kurt Suzuki singled into center, putting the Nats up 1-0. The pitcher Ross Detwiler grounded to short to set Washington down.

The game was tied at 1-1 when Hamels set the Nats down in order in the third.

Hamels started the fourth up 5-1. Morse singled to left with one out. Desmond flew to left for the second and Hamels struck out Espinosa for the third.

Suzuki led off the fifth with a single and Detwiler bunted him to second with the first out. Werth grounded to short for the second out with Suzuki holding. Harper was next, though, and he singled past a diving Rollins and into center. Suzuki scored, cutting the lead to 5-2, and Harper wound up at second as the throw came home. Zimmerman followed with another single, scoring Harper. 5-3. It brought LaRoche to the plate and he singled as well, putting men on first and second for Morse. Morse grounded to third to end the inning.

Harper winds up at second on his single cause Mayberry throws home and the ball goes off of Howard’s glove between the mound and second base. Mayberry had no chance to get Suzuki at the plate. It doesn’t matter if the next two hitters are going to single anyway, though. Would have mattered if the next one hitter was going to single.

Hamels allowed three straight hits after two outs and a man on second.

Lindblom set the Nationals down in order in the sixth.

Three up, three down for Lindblom, dropping his ERA with the Phils to 4.05. Opponents have hit just .189 against him in his 23 appearances since joining the team, but he has walked 15 in 20 innings.

De Fratus started the seventh up 6-3. He got switch-hitter Steve Lombardozzi, hitting for the pitcher Michael Gonzalez, for the first out and struck Werth out swinging for the second. Bastardo came in to pitch to the lefty Harper and struck him out swinging to end the frame.

De Fratus faces two hitters and gets them both. He’s been charged with one run in 7 2/3 innings over nine appearances with the Phils.

Bastardo faces one lefty in the game and strikes out Harper. He has an 0.84 ERA in 10 2/3 innings over his last 14 appearances with 23 strikeouts.

Aumont set the Nats down in order in the eighth.

Aumont handles Zimmerman, LaRoche and Morse without a peep. That’s two outings back-to-back without allowing a hit or a walk over two scoreless frames since three worrisome appearances in a row against the Astros and Mets.

Papelbon started the ninth. He struck Desmond out for the first out and Espinosa out for the second before Suzuki singled into center. Lefty Chad Tracy hit for the pitcher Zach Duke and grounded to second to end the game.

Third hit of the game for Suzuki.

Papelbon has an 0.63 ERA with 39 strikeouts in 28 2/3 innings over his last 29 appearances.

Overall the pen goes four scoreless innings, allowing a single and no walks while striking out five. Nobody has pitched more than one day in a row. Aumont threw 15 pitches in the game, Lindblom 13, Papelbon 12, De Fratus eight and Bastardo five.

The Phillies lineup against lefty Ross Detwiler went (1) Rollins (2) Mayberry (3) Utley (4) Howard (5) Ruiz (6) Brown (7) Ruf (8) Frandsen. Ruf makes his first start for the Phillies, playing in left against the lefty. He was primarily a first baseman in the minors in 2012, but appeared in left 29 times for Double-A Reading. Mayberry hits second. He comes into the game 4-for-his-last-23 (.174) with four singles and no walks.

Utley singled to left with two outs in the bottom of the first. Howard struck out to leave him stranded.

With two outs in the bottom of the second and the Phils down 1-0, Ruf hit a 3-2 pitch from Detwiler out to left, tying the game at 1-1. Frandsen followed with a double to center and Hamels walked to put two men on for Rollins. Rollins popped to first to leave both runners stranded.

First career hit for Ruf and he makes it a big one. The Phils gave him the extended silent treatment in the dugout after the blast. Ruf got ahead in the count 3-0 before hammering the 3-2 pitch out to left.

Walks to Mayberry and Utley started the third, putting two men on for Howard. Howard singled to right, scoring Mayberry and moving Utley up to second with the Phils on top 2-1. Ruiz was next and he hit a 2-0 pitch out to left for a three-run homer. 5-1. Brown, Ruf and Frandsen went in order behind him.

Ruf struck out swinging for the second out for career strikeout number one. I think it’s safe to say there are more to come.

Ruf’s homer gets all the attention in the game, but the three-run homer by Ruiz is really the big swing of the day for the Phils.

The Phils went in order in the fourth.

The lead was cut to 5-3 when they went in order in the fifth.

Brown hit the first pitch from righty Craig Stammen out to right to start the bottom of the sixth, extending the Phillie lead to 6-3. Ruf followed with a single to right and Frandsen flew to center for the first out. Schierholtz hit for Lindblom and walked. Rollins walked as well and the bases were loaded for Mayberry. Stammen struck Mayberry out swinging 1-2 for the second out. Lefty Michael Gonzalez came in to pitch to Utley and got Utley on a ball hit hard to LaRoche at first to end the inning.

Big strikeout for Mayberry with one out and the bases loaded keeps the Phils from getting more in the inning.

They get one run on a homer, a single and two walks.

Lefty Zach Duke set Howard, Ruiz and Brown down in order in the seventh.

Brown grounds to second against Duke for the third out, which drops his line against lefties on the year to 150/261/275. 270/350/443 against righties at the end of the day after homering off of the righty Stammen in the sixth.

Duke got Wigginton, Frandsen and Schierholtz in the eighth.

Rollins was 0-for-3 with a walk. 0-for-his-last-13.

Mayberry 0-for-3 with a walk. 1-for-his-last-13. 5-for-his-last-30 with ten strikeouts.

Utley 1-for-3 with a walk. He has 15 walks in his last 78 plate appearances. 274/395/458 over his last 248 plate appearances.

Howard 1-for-4 with an RBI. He’s walked twice in his last 66 plate appearances, hitting .190 and on-basing .212.

Brown 1-for-4 with his fifth homer. 1-for-his-last-12.

Ruf 2-for-3 with a home run. 2-for-5 with a home run and a sac fly for the year. The sac fly means his on-base percentage is going to be higher than his average for a while — right now his line is at 400/333/1.000.

Frandsen 1-for-4 with a double off the lefty Detwiler. He’s hitting .404 against lefties for the year with a BABIP of .422.

Kendrick (10-11, 3.89) faces lefty John Lannan (3-0, 4.43) tonight. Kendrick has a 2.17 ERA and an 0.87 ratio over his last eight starts and the Phils have gone 6-2 in those games. He ended June with a 5.35 ERA. Since the start of July he has thrown to a 2.48 ERA over 18 appearances (11 starts) and opponents have hit just .211 against him. Opponent’s BABIP in 74 innings through the end of June was .332. Since the start of July it has been .241. Lannan spent most of the year in the minors prior to taking Strasburg’s spot in the Washington rotation. He’s made four starts on the year and threw to a 2.41 ERA over the first three before allowing six runs in 3 2/3 innings against the Dodgers his last time out.

I updated the Start Log so the Result column is green for wins and red for losses. It may be helpful in making it easier to figure out where things went wrong for the Phils this year (helpful hint: they went most wrong from about June 2 to July 13).


No Zack attack

The Phillies did it again last night, roaring to life in the bottom of the eighth to score six runs and beat the Brewers 7-6.

Lee started the top of the eighth down 3-1, but allowed a solo homer and a two-run shot in the frame, putting the Phils in a 6-1 hole. The Phils feasted off the Milwaukee pen in the bottom of the inning, though, after a curious decision to pull Milwaukee starter Zack Greinke after 87 pitches. Erik Kratz delivered a pinch-hit two-run homer to get things started. With two outs and nobody on the Kratz blast looked like all the Phillies would get in the frame, but six straight batters reached for the Phils on four walks, a three-run double by Ruiz and a go-ahead bloop single by Pence. The Phils scored four more times and Papelbon nailed it down in the bottom of the inning.

The bullpen was good for the third straight game for the Phils as Schwimer and Papelbon combined to go two scoreless frames without allowing a hit or a walk. Over the last three games the bullpen has gone nine shutout innings, allowing two hits and four walks.

In the first two games of the set, the Phillies have scored 11 runs off of the Milwaukee bullpen in 3 2/3 innings. In last night’s game, Greinke had retired 14 in a row going back a third-inning single by Rollins before being pulled for the start of the eighth.

The Phillies are 44-54 on the year after beating the Milwaukee Brewers 7-6 last night. The Phils have won three in a row and are 7-4 since the All-Star break. They are still in last place in the NL East, 14 games behind the first place Nationals.

Lee got the start for the Phillies and went seven innings, allowing six runs on 12 hits and a walk. Four of the hits went for extra-bases, all home runs. He struck out six. Lee allows more than two home runs in a game for the first time this season. He last allowed four in a game on August 21, 2010 while pitching for the Rangers.

Norichika Aoki was the first batter of the game and singled to left. Carlos Gomez popped to third before Braun moved Aoki to second with a single. Aramis Ramirez was next and he singled to right. Aoki tried to score from second, but Pence threw him out at the plate for the second out. Braun moved up to second. Corey Hart was next and he singled to, this time to left. Braun scored to put Milwaukee up 1-0 with runners on the corners for Rickie Weeks. Weeks grounded to short to end the frame.

Lee gives up four hits in the inning. Gets one of three outs on the bases.

Martin Maldonado, Cesar Izturis and pitcher Zack Greinke went in order in the second with the game tied at 1-1.

Lee set the Brewers down in order in the third and again in the fourth.

Maldonado and Izturis singled back-to-back to start the fifth, putting runners on first and second with nobody out. Greinke bunted the runners to second and third with the first out. Lee walked to load the bases for Gomez. During the at-bat, Lee was off the rubber and Maldonado was way off of third. Lee threw over to third and Maldonado was caught, eventually run down and tagged out for the second out. Lee struck Gomez out swinging 0-2 to leave the bases loaded.

Bizarre play to get Maldonado, but it helped Lee get out of the jam.

Braun hit Lee’s first pitch of the sixth out to left, putting the Brewers up 2-1. Hart singled with one out, but Lee got Weeks to ground into a double-play behind him.

Lee struck out Maldonado and Izturis to start the seventh before Greinke homered to left. 3-1. Aoki lined to third for the third out.

Third career home run for Greinke.

Gomez homered to left on Lee’s first pitch of the eighth. 4-1. Braun followed that with a singled before Ramirez hit an 0-2 pitch out to left. 6-1. Schwimer took over for Lee and got the first two hitters he faced before Maldonado reached on an error by Wigginton. Izturis lined to short for the third out.

Lee allowed four home runs in the game. Three of them, Braun, Greinke and Gomez, came on the first pitch of the at-bat. Ramirez’s came 0-2.

Error by Wigginton makes Schwimer get four outs in the frame. He has a 2.20 ERA with a 1.16 ratio over his last 17 appearances.

Papelbon pitched the ninth with the Phils up 7-6 and needed just ten pitches to set Milwaukee down in order. Lefty George Kottarras hit for righty Jeff Bianchi and struck out swinging for the first out. Aoki flew to center for the second and Gomez struck out looking to end the game.

Schwimer’s good inning with the Phillies down by five runs didn’t look like it mattered at all at the time, but the Phils get two scoreless frames from the pen without allowing a hit or a walk.

Schwimer threw 16 pitches and Papelbon ten.

The Phillies lineup against righty Zack Greinke went (1) Rollins (2) Victorino (3) Utley (4) Howard (5) Ruiz (6) Pence (7) Wigginton (8) Mayberry. Mayberry in left and Wigginton at third despite both being terrible against righties. Lefties Pierre and Fontenot on the bench.

The Phillies were down 1-0 when they hit in the bottom of the first. Victorino doubled with one out. Utely was next and struck out on a ball not handled by Maldonado. Maldonado threw to first to retire Utley for the second out, but Victorino moved up to third. Howard was next and singled to left, scoring Victorino to tie the game at 1-1. Ruiz grounded to third for the third out.

The Phils went in order in the second.

Rollins singled with one out in the third, but Victorino and Utley went down behind him.

The Phils went in order in the fourth and fifth.

Down 2-1, Rollins, Victorino and Utley went in order in the sixth.

Down 3-1, Greinke set them down in order in the seventh.

It was 6-1 when righty Jose Veras started the eighth. Greinke had not been hit for in the top of the frame and had thrown just 87 pitches in the game. Wigginton led off with a single and moved up to second when Mayberry grounded to second for the first out. Nix hit for Schwimer. Lefty Manny Parra came in to pitch to Nix. Righty Erik Kratz hit for Nix and Kratz hit the first pitch from Parra out to left centet, cutting the lead to 6-3. Rollins lined to left for the second out. Parra walked Victorino and Utley back-to-back. They pulled off a double steal before Parra walked Howard, loading the bases. Fontenot ran for Howard. Righty Kameron Loe came in to pitch to Ruiz. Ruiz got behind in the count, but ripped a 1-2 pitch into the gap in left-center. The double cleared the bases, tying the game at 6-6. Pence was next and he got behind in the count as well, but made a weak swing at an outside 1-2 pitch and blooped a ball that fell for a single in shallow right field, just out of the reach of Weeks. Ruiz scored and the Phils led 7-6. Wigginton walked before Mayberry grounded to short to end the inning.

Rodriguez had a nightmare inning in the first game of the set, this time the Phils jump all over Parra. Parra’s outing went two-run homer, out, walk, walk, double-steal, walk. That’s a lot of walks.

With two outs, nobody on and the Phils down three runs, they score four on four walks, a double and a single.

The Phillies drew nine walks to help them win game one of the set. Last night they only had four walks in the game, but all four of them came with two outs in the eighth inning.

Rollins was 1-for-4.

Victorino 1-for-3 with a walk and a double.

Utley 0-for-3 with a walk and struck out twice.

Howard 1-for-3 with a walk and an RBI.

Ruiz 1-for-4 with a double and three RBI.

Pence 1-for-4 with an RBI. He’s 3-for-his-last-26.

Wigginton 1-for-3 with a walk.

Mayberry 0-for-4. He’s now hitting 200/262/262 against righties for the season.

Worley (5-6, 3.82) faces righty Marco Estrada (0-4, 4.10) this afternoon. Worley has a 6.75 ERA with a 1.81 ratio so far in July. Two of his four starts have been awful and the other two solid. Opponents have hit .341 against him this month with ten walks in 22 2/3 innings. Estrada came off the DL at the end of June and has thrown to a 3.58 ERA in five appearances since. Since his return he has allowed 11 runs in 27 2/3 innings. Of those 11 runs, ten have scored on the six home runs he has allowed.

This says that the Phillies and Cole Hamels have agreed to a six-year, $144 million deal.


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