Tag: Andy Tracy

Singles function

Continuing with the numbers from the last post, for the eight Phillies regulars, here’s how often they got hits or walks, singles or walks or extra-base hits or walks per 100 plate appearances in 2009:

  H or BB 1B or BB XBH or BB
Howard 35.1 22.9 22.9
Utley 36.2 27.1 22.0
Feliz 30.2 23.2 12.6
Rollins 29.2 19.7 15.6
Ibanez 34.0 21.8 22.1
Victorino 34.7 25.8 17.6
Werth 36.1 26.8 22.8
Ruiz 34.0 24.5 21.9

If you order them by their chance to get any kind of hit or a walk, the list looks like this:

  1. Utley
  2. Werth
  3. Howard
  4. Victorino
  5. Ruiz
  6. Ibanez
  7. Feliz
  8. Rollins

That order is the same as it would be if you ordered the players by their ’09 on-base percentage.

Leadoff man Jimmy Rollins didn’t have much of a chance to get a hit or a walk compared to the other players on his team last year. Victorino would clearly have been the better choice to lead off, but arguably any player, including Feliz, would have done a better job of getting on base.

The list changes if you order the players by their chances to get a single or a walk — the group below is order by the numbers of singles plus walks per 100 plate appearances:

  1. Utley
  2. Werth
  3. Victorino
  4. Ruiz
  5. Feliz
  6. Howard
  7. Ibanez
  8. Rollins

Victorino, Ruiz and Feliz bounce up in that group while Howard and Ibanez fall and Rollins stays at the bottom.

You know who hit a lot of singles last year? Pedro Feliz. Feliz had 110 of his 154 hits this season go for singles. That’s 71.4%, which is the highest percentage of singles for this group of Phillies. Of the 103 NL players who got at least 400 plate appearances last season, just 28 of them had more than 71.4% go as singles. Highest percentage of singles goes to the Mets’ Luis Castillo, who had 89.1% of his 147 hits go for singles.

You know who didn’t hit a lot of singles last year? Raul Ibanez. Just 49.3% of his hits went for singles, which was second-fewest of the 103 NLers with 400 plate appearances. The Diamondbacks’ Chris Young was the only player of that group with a lower percentage of hits going for singles (48.9%).

If you order the list by the player’s chance to walk or deliver an extra-base hit last year, the list goes like this:

  1. Howard
  2. Werth
  3. Ibanez
  4. Utley
  5. Ruiz
  6. Victorino
  7. Rollins
  8. Feliz

Rollins finally gets out of the basement, passing up Feliz. Feliz really isn’t going to do well in any categories you can think of that have a lot to do with walks or extra-base hits. Feliz got 246 more plate appearances than Carlos Ruiz this year and had eight more extra-base hits.

While we’re on the subject of guys who hit lots of singles, JA Happ finished second in the voting for NL Rookie of the Year behind Chris Coghlan. Coghlan hit .321 this year for the Fish, but was one of the 28 NLers with more than 400 plate appearances who had a higher percentage of their hits go for singles than Feliz. 71.6% of Coghlan’s hits went for singles this season.

Bruntlett, Walker, Hoover, Ennis and Tracy are all off of the Phillies 40-man roster. The linked article suggests that this means it’s likely that Bruntlett and Walker will not be back in 2010. It says the other three could return.

I don’t quite understand what it is with the Phillies and Tyler Walker. He pitched well in 2009 for a team that had a lot of problems in the pen at the end of the year and made under a million dollars. He wasn’t part of the Phillies post-season plans and it looks like he isn’t part of their plans for 2010.

The Phillies added outfielder Quintin Berry, left-handed pitcher Yohan Flande and right-handed pitcher Jesus Sanchez to their 40-man roster.

Free agent Chan Ho Park is looking for a team that would give him a chance to start. 7.29 ERA and a 1.74 ratio in seven starts in 2009 and a 2.52 ERA and a 1.18 ratio as a reliever.

The Phillies apparently see keeping a guy who can’t play defense and hits 194/357/379 on your team all year as not in the best interests of the team.

The Manager of the Year will be announced today.


All sides decry the lack of decency as magic number campaign goes negative

The Phillies are heading to the playoffs as division champs once again. A grand slam from Pedro Feliz in game two helped get things going in the right direction and the Phils clinched the NL East with a decisive 10-3 win in game three of a four-game set with the Astros.

A few guys clearly need some rest for the Phils, but the team is plugging along offensively. The pitching, on the other hand, is a mess. The bullpen pitched well in the series, but the ninth inning has been an adventure and seems guaranteed to be for some time to come. The starting pitching is suddenly awful. The Phillies don’t have a quality start in their last nine games. Over those games their starters have combined to throw to a 6.26 ERA and a 1.61 ratio. In five of their last six and six of their last eight games their starting pitcher has thrown less than six innings.

The Phillies are 92-67 on the season after splitting a four-game series with the Houston Astros. The Phils have won the division and currently are second among the four NL playoff teams with 92 wins. All four of the Phils, Cards, Dodgers and Rockies have three games to play. LA has 93 wins and the Rockies and Cards each have 91. The Phils will play the Dodgers or the Rockies in the first round of the playoffs. The Dodgers lead the Rockies by two games with the teams set to play a three-game series this weekend.

The Phillies lost the first game of the series 8-2. Rollins put the Phils up 1-0 in the bottom of the first as he singled, stole second and came in to score on a sac fly by Utley. Hamels kept Houston off the board until the fourth, when the Astros tied the game at 1-1 on three singles and walk. Three of the first four Houston batters reached in the sixth and the Astros scored two more to extend their lead to 3-1. Victorino doubled with one out in the bottom of the sixth, moving to third on a ground out and came in to score on a balk to make it 3-2. Houston blew it open in the seventh. Hamels got the first two batters in the frame before allowing two singles, a stolen base and walking the next hitter intentionally. Walker took over for Hamels and was awful again, allowing a two-run double, a walk and a single before Condrey took over. Condrey allowed a two-run single before striking out JR Towles to end the five-run inning with the Phillies down 8-2. With two outs and nobody on, seven straight Astros reached in the frame.

The Phils got a huge win in game two, topping Houston 7-4. With the help of a loss by the Braves the win helped reduce their magic number to one. Lance Berkman homered off of Happ with two outs in the third to put the Astros up 1-0. Bako led off the bottom of the third with a walk and came in to score on a double by Rollins, tying the game at 1-1. Howard, Ibanez and Werth got on board to start the fourth before Feliz delivered an enormous blow, hitting the first pitch of his at-bat from Wilton Lopez out to left for a grand slam that put the Phils up 5-1. Houston got another run off of Happ in the top of the fifth on two singles and a catcher’s interference to make it 5-2. Werth hit a two-run homer in the bottom of the fifth and it was 7-2. Kaz Matsui got Happ for a two-run shot as well in the top of the sixth. 7-4. Moyer came on in relief of Happ in the top of the sixth. He got the last out and returned for the seventh, injuring his groin as Jeff Keppinger flew to center for the third out. Madson worked the final two innings to earn the save.

The Phils clinched the NL East with a 10-3 win in game three. The Astros loaded the bases in the first on three singles before Pedro walked Pence with two outs to force in a run an put Houston up 1-0. Rollins started the bottom of the first with a double and came in to score on a ground out by Utley to tie the game at 1-1. JR Towles hit a solo shot off of Martinez in the top of the second, putting Houston on top again at 2-1. Towles did it again in the top of the fourth to make it 3-1. Martinez left after four innings, but Kendrick came on next and was fantastic in relief. He struck out four in three scoreless innings while the Phillies broke the game open. Two singles, a walk, a double by Feliz and a costly throwing error by Astros starter Brian Moehler helped the Phils score four runs in the bottom of the fourth, putting them on top at 5-3. Back-to-back triples by Rollins and Victorino to start the fifth helped the Phillies score two more. 7-3. An RBI-double by Ruiz in the sixth brought in Feliz and made it 8-3. Ibanez hit a two-run shot in the seventh and it was 10-3. Eyre got the first two outs in the ninth before Brad Lidge came in and got Berkman to ground to first to end the game.

The Phillies lost last night’s game 5-3. Berkman put the Astros up 2-0 with a two-run double off of Lee in the top of the first. Francisco doubled in the fifth and came in to score on a single by Rollins to cut the lead to 2-1. The Phils couldn’t get any more in the inning, though, as Werth grounded to short with the bases loaded to leave all three runners stranded. Tejada hit a two-run shot off of Lee in the top of the sixth to make it 4-1 and Houston added a run on three singles off of Myers in the seventh. Down 5-1 heading into the bottom of the ninth, the Phillies got a two-out double from Feliz. 5-3. Tracy followed with a single that moved Feliz to third and put the tying run on base, but Cairo flew to center to end the game.

The Phillies threw 36 innings in the series with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.47 ratio.

The starting pitching was bad. 6.14 ERA and a 1.68 ratio over 22 innings. Five home runs allowed — two against Happ, two off of Martinez and one off of Lee.

Hamels got the start in game one. He was strong early but ended up with an ugly line, allowing six runs over 6 2/3 innings on nine hits and three walks while striking out five. Six starts in September for Hamels — three were good and three were bad. Two bad ones in a row have him allowing ten runs on 17 hits and three walks over 13 2/3 innings in his last two starts (6.59 ERA and a 1.46 ratio). His line would have look a whole lot better if he had gotten Bourn with two outs and nobody on in the top of the seventh. He’s keeping people in the yard these days, which is a good sign. In six of his last seven starts he hasn’t allowed a home run.

Happ went 5 2/3 innings in game two, allowing four runs on nine hits and a walk. Only three of the runs were earned and he struck out six. He has a 3.77 ERA over his last three starts, but hasn’t pitched nearly that well. He’s allowed 20 hits and three walks over 14 1/3 innings (1.60 ratio). After walking lots of hitters for most of the season, he hasn’t walked two or more in a start any of his last six times out. He’s allowed too many hits in those six starts, though, 35 in 28 1/3 innings. Seven of the hits have been home runs. That’s too many, too. Seven home runs over 28 1/3 innings would have him on a pace to give up about 49 homers over 200 innings.

Pedro started game three and went four innings, allowing three runs on six hits and a walk. He gave up a pair of home runs to Towles. He’s allowed more than three runs in a start just once as a Phillie, he allowed four against the Mets on August 23, but has gone five innings or less in five of his nine starts.

Lee went 5 2/3 in game four, allowing four runs on seven hits and a walk. One of the runs was unearned. He’s allowed 11 runs in 11 2/3 innings over his last two starts. He’s also given up three home runs — he’s allowed just 17 home runs in 231 2/3 innings on the year. The 231 2/3 innings he’s thrown on the year is fourth in all of baseball. That’s not good.

The pen pitched well. They threw 14 innings with a 1.93 ERA and a 1.14 ratio. Walker was awful in game one, but came back to throw a 1-2-3 inning last night. Madson had a nifty two inning save in game two. Kendrick sparkled in relief of Martinez in game three. Myers had a worrisome outing last night.

Eyre started the ninth inning of game three with the Phillies up 10-3. Making his first appearance since September 7, he faced two batters and retired them both. He has been charged with two runs in 32 appearances since the end of April.

Romero pitched the eighth inning of game one with the Phils down 8-2. He allowed back-to-back singles with one out before getting the next two hitters to leave the runners stranded.

Escalona pitched the ninth inning last night with the Phils down 5-1 and set the Astros down in order. He’s been charged with runs in two of his 12 appearances on the season, but appears to have little chance to be on the post-season roster.

Moyer took over for Happ in the sixth inning of game two with two outs, nobody on and the Phillies up 7-4. He got Miguel Tejada on a fly ball to center to end the frame. He came back for the seventh, too. He walked Hunter Pence with two outs before getting Jeff Keppinger on a fly ball to deep center field. Moyer fell to the ground after delivering the pitch to Keppinger and left the game with a strained groin.

Kendrick was awesome in game three. Pitching in relief of Pedro, he went three scoreless innings in which he allowed two hits and struck out four. He has a 2.66 ERA and a 1.27 ratio in 23 2/3 innings for the Phillies this season. He allowed three runs in two innings to the Red Sox in his first appearance of the year — since then he’s thrown to a 1.66 ERA.

Walker took over for Hamels in the seventh inning of game one with two outs, men on first and second and the Phils down 4-2. He gave up a two-run double to Carlos Lee and then walked Hunter Pence. It put men on first and second with two down for Jeff Keppinger and Keppinger reached on an infield single to load the bases. Condrey took over for Walker to pitch to Kaz Matsui.

Second straight terrible outing in a row for Walker — over his last two appearances he had allowed four runs on four hits and a walk without getting an out. It’s raised his ERA on the year from 2.23 to 3.34. His ratio went from 1.05 to 1.21.

He got another chance in game four and pitched better. He started the eighth with the Phillies down 5-1 and set the Astros down in order.

Durbin pitched the eighth inning of game three with the Phillies up 10-3. He walked Matsui with one out but got the next two. He has a 1.98 ERA in nine appearances in September, but hasn’t pitched nearly that well. In 13 2/3 innings he has walked eleven.

Condrey entered game one in the top of the seventh with two outs, the bases loaded, the Phils down 6-2 and Matsui at the plate. Matsui delivered a two-run single before Condrey struck out JR Towles to end the frame.

Condrey also pitched last night, entering the game in the sixth inning with two outs, men on second and third and the Phillies down 4-1. He hit Humberto Quintero with a pitch before pinch-hitter Aaron Boone flew to center to end the frame.

Condrey hasn’t been charged with an earned run in any of his last ten appearances. In seven innings he’s allowed five hits without walking a batter.

Myers started the seventh inning of game four with the Phillies down 4-1. Bourn led off with a bunt single, went to second on a passed ball and was bunted to third. Tejada followed with a single that scored Bourn and made it 5-1. Berkman was next and he singled as well, putting me on first and second with one out. Pence hit into a double-play to end set Houston down.

It was the first appearance for Myers since September 12.

Lidge pitched the ninth inning of game one with the Phils down 8-2. He got the first two before he hit a batter and allowed a single. He got Jason Michaels to ground to third to leave both men stranded.

Lidge also pitched in game three, entering in the ninth inning with two outs, nobody on and the Phillies up 10-3. He got Berkman to ground to first to end the game and clinch the division for the Phillies.

Madson entered game two in the top of the eighth with the Phillies up 7-4. He threw a 1-2-3 eighth and came back for the ninth. Matsui led off the ninth with a single before Tejada flew to right for the first out. Berkman reached on a single just out of reach of Rollins, moving Matsui to second and bringing Lee to the plate as the tying run. Lee struck out swinging and Madson got Pence swinging to end the game.

The Phillies scored 22 runs in the four-game series.

Rollins had a fantastic series. He was 6-for-15 in the series with two doubles and a triple and is hitting 250/297/424 on the year.

Victorino was 4-for-12 with a double and two triples. He’s hitting 293/360/448 for the year. Hopefully a lot of rest is the answer for Victorino. He’s hitting 243/309/395 over his last 232 plate appearances. He was hitting 319/386/476 after going 3-for-5 on July 28.

Utley was 0-for-9 in the series and got last night off. He’s hitting 285/401/513 on the season. He hit an ugly 204/304/343 in September.

Howard was 3-for-12 with five walks in the series. 276/358/563 on the season.

Werth 5-for-13 with a home run and four walks. 268/374/506.

Ibanez 3-for-14 with two walks, a home run and four RBI. 274/348/556.

Feliz hit a huge grand slam in game two. 5-for-17 with two doubles, a home run and seven RBI in the series. 268/311/390 for the year. Feliz has been awful since the end of July, hitting 230/260/376 over 224 plate appearances. He’s shown a lot of life lately, though, hitting 327/327/489 over his last 49 plate appearances. No walks in his last 53 at-bats.

Bako started games one, two and four of the series. 2-for-8 with two walks. He’s up to 230/315/345 on the season. 333/405/455 over 37 plate appearances in his last ten games.

Ruiz started game three of the series and went 1-for-4 with a double and an RBI. 253/351/424 on the year.

Hoover appeared in game one without an at-bat.

Francisco started in center field last night in game four. 3-for-5 with two doubles in the series. 281/316/551 in 89 at-bats with the Phillies.

Cairo was 1-for-3 in the series and is hitting 235/257/294 for the year.

Bruntlett started at second base last night and went 0-for-5 with three strikeouts. He’s hitting 158/214/228 for the year. He did not have a bat in all of September before starting October with a tough game. Hasn’t been such a good year for him.

Dobbs was 0-for-3 in the series to drop his line on the year to 255/306/400. He’s 5-for-22 with five singles since the end of July.

Tracy went 1-for-2 in the series and is 3-for-6 with the Phillies.

Victorino and Utley are the guys the Phillies really need to snap out. Rollins was a monster in the series and so was Feliz despite recent struggles.

This article breaks down tie scenarios for the best record in the NL.

Chan Ho Park left a simulated game yesterday after facing five batters due to a problem with his hamstring. It also suggests that whether Happ or Martinez is fourth starter behind Lee, Hamels and Blanton will depend on the health of Eyre and Romero.


Could we have a volunteer, please?

There’s a whole lot of opportunity at the back of the Phillies bullpen these days. What’s missing is guys who are pitching well. There are three main candidates to be closing for the team in the post-season, Lidge, Madson and Myers, and a dark horse in Tyler Walker. All three of Lidge, Madson and Myers were awful against the Mets, even as the Phils took three out of four.

The Mets scored 16 runs in the four-game series. Ten of those runs were scored in the eighth or ninth inning. Eight of the 16 were charged to Myers, Madson or Lidge and the three combined to pitch just 5 1/3 innings in the set.

The Phillies are 82-60 on the season after taking three of four from the Mets. They are in first place in the NL East and lead the second-place Marlins by 6 1/2 games.

The Phillies won the first game of the series 4-2. The Phils scored a run in the second and another in the third. Hamels kept New York off the board till the seventh, when the Mets scored a run on two singles, a bunt and a sac fly to make it 2-1. A Ruiz sac fly in the bottom of the seventh brought in Werth to extend the lead to 3-1 and an RBI-double by Utley in the eighth made it 4-1. Madson came on for the save in the ninth, but gave up a leadoff double that lead to a run. He got a big double-play with one out and men on first and third and was able to hold the Mets to a single run.

Game two was a little tough to take. The Phils went into the eighth up 9-5 and lost the game 10-9. The Mets jumped out to a 4-0 lead on Moyer in the first. Carlos Beltran connected for a two-run homer in the inning. Feliz hit a two-run homer in the second. 4-2. Utley hit a solo shot in the third and Ibanez delivered a two-run blast. The Phils led 5-4 after three and extended the lead to 6-4 with another run in the fourth. Two more in the sixth had the Phils up 8-4. Daniel Murphy doubled off of Moyer with one out in the seventh, stole third and came in to score on a ground out. 8-5. Utley started the seventh with a double and came in to score on a single by Ibanez to make it 9-5. Myers started the eighth and got hit hard. A double followed by a David Wright homer made it 9-7. Beltran followed with a single and Park replaced Moyer, but he allowed Beltran to score on two more singles before the inning was over. 9-8. Madson got the first two in the ninth before he allowed a single to Fernando Tatis that was followed by Wright’s second two-run homer in two innings. The Phils went in order in the bottom of the ninth.

Kendrick got his first of the year in the day game of yesterday’s double-header, which the Phillies won 5-4. Kendrick pitched very well. A solo homer by Francisco and a two-run shot from Victorino helped Kendrick go into the top of the eighth with a 4-0 lead. Kendrick got the first batter before allowing a single to Angel Pagan that was followed by a two-run home run by Anderson Hernandez. Walker finished off the eighth for Kendrick. In the bottom of the inning the Phils added another run, getting a two-out double from Stairs followed by an RBI-single from Tracy. Lidge came on in the ninth to protect a 5-2 lead and allowed two runs on three singles, but struck out Pagan to end the game.

Pedro Martinez threw eight shutout innings last night as the Phils won 1-0. Utley drove in Rollins with an RBI-single in the bottom of the first and that was all of the scoring for the game. Pedro gave up four singles, two doubles and walked two while striking out seven. Madson got the save opportunity this time. He allowed a one-out single in the ninth but got the next two hitters.

Phillies pitchers overall threw 36 innings in the series with a 4.00 ERA and a 1.25 ratio.

The starting pitching was much better than the bullpen. The Phils got three good starts from Hamels, Kendrick and Martinez and a bad one from Moyer in game two. Overall the starters threw to a 2.48 ERA and a 1.07 ratio. They walked just four in 29 innings.

Hamels allowed a run on seven hits and a walk over 6 2/3 innings in game one. In three of his last four starts he’s thrown into the seventh and allowed one run or less in the game.

Moyer allowed five runs in seven innings in game two. He gave up seven hits and didn’t walk a batter.

Kendrick went 7 1/3 innings in game three, allowing two runs on seven hits and a walk. He took a 4-0 lead into the eighth before allowing a two-run homer to Anderson Hernandez. He has a 3.55 ERA in his five appearances on the year for the Phils. After allowing three runs in two innings in his first appearance his last four have been good.

Martinez went eight shutout innings in the second game of yesterday’s double-header. He allowed six hits and two walks and struck out seven. He’s 5-0 with a 2.87 ERA and a 1.09 ratio in seven starts for the Phils.

The bullpen was awful. In seven innings they pitched to a 10.29 ERA and a 2.00 ratio. They didn’t walk a batter but allowed 14 hits in seven innings. Madson allowed a run in game one. Myers, Park and Madson were all awful in game two. Lidge allowed two runs in the ninth inning of game three.

Park took over for Hamels in the seventh inning of game one with two outs, a man on second and the Phils up 2-1. He got Wright on a ground ball to short to set the Mets down.

He also pitched in the eighth inning of game two, entering in the eighth inning with two down, a man on first and the Phils up 9-7. He got a fly ball for the second out before allowing back-to-back singles to Santos and Murphy. Murphy’s single scored Beltran from second and made it 9-8. Park got the pinch-hitter Sullivan to end the inning.

Park has a 2.70 ratio in five appearances this month.

Myers started the eighth inning of game one with the Phillies up 3-1 and set the Mets down in order.

He also started the eighth inning in game two with the Phillies up 9-5. He got the first hitter before allowing a double to Tatis and a homer to Wright. Beltran followed with a single and Park relieved Myers.

Walker entered game three with one out in the eighth and the Phillies up 4-2. He got the two hitters he faced to end the frame.

Madson started the ninth inning of game one with a 4-1 lead. He gave up a leadoff double to Omir Santos and pinch-hitter Jeremy Reed followed with a single that moved Santos to third. Cory Sullivan was next and Madson got him to hit into a double-play with Santos scoring from third to make it 4-2. Angel Pagan grounded to second to end the game.

He started the ninth inning of game two with a 9-8 lead. He got the first two hitters before Tatis singled and Wright followed with a two-run homer to put the Mets up 10-9. Beltran singled before Madson got Francoeur on a popup to end the frame.

He pitched the ninth inning in game four with a 1-0 lead. Brian Schneider singled with one out, but Madson struck out Francoeur and got Pagan on a line drive to third to end the game.

Madson has walked four batters since the end of June.

Lidge started the ninth inning of game three with a 5-2 lead. He gave up a leadoff single to Jeff Francoeur and Francoeur took second on defensive indifference. Beltran grounded to deep short on a nine play by Rollins for the first out, but Josh Thole was next and he blasted a ball off the wall in right for a long single. Francoeur scored and the lead was cut to 5-3. Lidge struck Luis Castillo out for the second out of the inning before Thole took second again without a throw. Jeremy Reed was next and singled into center. Thole scored and it was 5-4, but Lidge struck Pagan out to end the game.

Game two, the game that the Phillies lost, Madson, Park and Myers all pitched for the second straight day and all three were awful. Madson has pitched three days in a row and five of the last six days.

The Phillies scored 19 runs in the four-game series.

Rollins was 5-for-17 with a triple in the series and is hitting 244/289/409 on the season. He also walked twice, giving him seven walks since the end of July.

Victorino was 6-for-15 with three doubles, three walks and a home run. 300/367/460 for the year. He’s on-basing .293 in September after on-basing .336 in August.

Utley was 5-for-13 with two doubles, three walks and a home run. 296/414/542 on the year.

Howard was 3-for-14 with a double and two walks. 272/350/556 on the year. One home run in his last 59 at-bats.

Werth didn’t play in game three of the series with Francisco in right. 1-for-11 with two strikeouts in the series. 266/369/519. He’s hitting .222 this month.

Ibanez was 5-for-17 with a double and a home run. 278/344/566. 341/357/707 in his last 42 plate appearances. He has just a .314 on-base percentage for the month, though, with just two walks.

Feliz was 5-for-16 with three doubles and a home run. 270/315/393 on the year. He’s hitting .216 in September with a .245 on-base percentage.

Ruiz started games one, two and four in the series. 2-for-7 with a double and walk. 255/354/426 for the year.

Bako started game three. He was 0-for-3 and is hitting 195/271/312 in 77 at-bats for the year.

Bruntlett pinch-ran yesterday, but didn’t get an at-bat in the series. 167/224/240.

Francisco started in right in game three. 2-for-5 with a home run in the series. 246/279/526 with the Phils in 57 at-bats.

Stairs was 1-for-3 with a double in the series. 202/359/394 for the year.

Tracy had a huge hit in game three, driving in a run with a pinch-hit single in a game the Phils won by one. 1-for-1 in the series and 1-for-3 on the year.

This suggests that Condrey does not understand why he hasn’t been activated.


Plan B

The Phillies tried Ryan Madson as a starter in 2006 and things didn’t go very well. Madson made 17 starts in which he threw to a 6.28 ERA and wound up doing most of his work for the year pitching in relief. He finished the season with a 5.69 ERA.

Since then he’s had three years as a full-time reliever and in each of the three seasons he’s pitched to an ERA in the 3.05 to 3.10 range with a ratio in the 1.22 to 1.27 range. Here’s a look at how his numbers for this year for striking batters out and allowing runs, hits, walks, doubles and triples and home runs per 100 plate appearances compare to his numbers for the last two seasons:

  ERA Ratio R/100 H/100 BB/100 2B+3B/100 HR/100 SO/100
2007 3.05 1.27 8.02 20.25 9.70 4.22 2.11 18.14
2008 3.05 1.23 8.53 23.24 6.76 5.00 1.76 19.71
2009 3.10 1.22 8.66 22.02 7.22 3.25 2.17 24.19

Despite the very similar ERAs for the three year, Madson has his walk rate down significantly in the past two seasons compared to 2007. He is striking out a lot more hitters this year, but allowing home runs at his highest rate for the three seasons. While his home run rate is up, his rate for allowing extra-base hits that aren’t home runs is down a lot. In 2008 he was allowing about 1.54 times the doubles and triples per 100 plate appearances that he has in 2009.

The thing that’s a little worrisome about Madson’s year in 2009 is that if you divide what he’s done this season nearly in half, the first half was a lot better than the second. Madson didn’t allow a home run in his first 34 appearances on the year before June 18. On that day the Phils and Jays went into the top of the ninth tied at 7-7 and Rod Barajas hit a solo homer off of Madson. The Phils lost 8-7. Those first 34 appearances are just about half of his work for the year — he’s faced 138 batters before June 18 and 139 on June 18 or after. The numbers before that date are a whole lot better:

  ERA Ratio R/100 H/100 BB/100 2B+3B/100 HR/100 SO/100
4/8/09 to
6/16/09
2.16 1.11 5.80 18.84 7.97 2.90 0.00 26.81
6/18/09 to
9/9/09
4.05 1.32 11.51 25.18 6.47 3.60 4.32 21.58

With the exception of walks, pretty much everything has been going in the wrong direction for Madson since the day he allowed his first home run of the season. His rates for allowing hits and doubles and triples are way up, and his strikeouts down, but by far the biggest factor for him is that after not allowing a home run in his first 33 1/3 innings of the season he has allowed six in his last 33 1/3.

Not to be forgotten in all of this is that Madson was outstanding in the post-season last season, throwing to a 2.13 ERA and an 0.87 ratio in 11 appearances. He’s also on pace to throw a few less innings this season, about 79 after throwing 82 2/3 in ’08. The thing about ’08, though, was that Madson was fantastic at the end of the regular season as well as in the post-season. In his last 14 appearances in the regular season in ’08 he was charged with one earned run, throwing to an 0.64 ERA with an 0.93 ratio and striking out 17 in 14 innings.

Andy Tracy and Sergio Escalona are up. Rodrigo Lopez has been released.

The article linked above says that Moyer will take Happ’s start on Saturday. It also says that Kendrick will likely start one of the double-header games on Sunday, which would go a long way towards removing #DIV/0! from the Start Log.


Okay, then, stay in my yard

By almost any measure, the Phillies had the best bullpen in the National League in 2008. Phils’ relievers pitched to an NL-best 3.22 ERA and allowed fewer runs per inning than the relievers for any other team in the league.

But what was it that they did that was exceptional relative to the other bullpens in the league? Not that they necessarily had to do any one thing — they could have been a little bit better than average in a lot of ways. I mentioned yesterday that one thing that wasn’t exceptional about the pen in ’08 was the number of walks they issued. They actually walked more batters than the average bullpen in the league. They also didn’t prevent hits at an exceptional rate. Here are the rates that the average NL bullpen recorded hits, walks and strikeouts per nine innings in 2008 along with what the Phillies did:

bbhsoper9.jpg

The Phillies relievers did do a better job of preventing hits than the average NL bullpen, but not by a whole lot. They walked more batters and struck out more. Here it is in a chart that shows the average rates for NL bullpens for 2008 for hits, walks and strikeouts along with the rates for the Phillies and their rank in the NL in those categories relative to other NL relief corps:

  NL pen
average
PHI pen NL Rank PHI/NL AVG
H per 9
8.72 8.50 7 0.97
BB per 9 3.83 3.93 9 1.03
SO per 9 7.57 7.66 5 1.01

So per nine innings pitched, the Phillies relievers allowed about 97% of the hits, 103% of the walks and got 101% of the strikeouts that the average pen would have gotten. They were the fifth-best in the 16-team league at striking hitters out, but the numbers for allowing walks and hits were near the middle of the pack.

What is exceptional relative to the other bullpens in the NL last year is this:

  NL pen
average
PHI pen NL Rank PHI/NL AVG
XBH per 9
2.89 2.53 3 .88
HR per 9 0.96 0.69 1 .72

Again, per nine innings pitched, the Phils allowed 88% of the extra-base hits of an average NL pen and 72% of the home runs. Their rate of allowing extra-base bases hits was third-best in the league and the rate of allowing home runs was the best.

The overall success at preventing extra-base hits has a lot to do at how good the Phillies relievers were at preventing home runs. Compared to the other NL teams, their rate of preventing doubles and triples was not nearly as outstanding as their rate at preventing home runs.

hxb2bhr1.jpg

And here it is in table form:

  NL pen
average
PHI pen NL Rank PHI/NL AVG
XBH per 9
2.89 2.53 3 .88
2B + 3B per 9 1.93 1.84 7 .96
HR per 9 0.96 0.69 1 .72

The rate at which they prevented doubles and triples simply wasn’t as extraordinary as the rate at which they prevented home runs. While they were third overall among NL pens at preventing extra-base hits, they were just seventh in preventing doubles and triples. None of this is to say there was any one factor that made the bullpen great overall in 2008, or that all of the areas mentioned in the post are equally important, but in some areas the Phils’ relievers were much more dominant than others.

Yesterday the Phillies lost to the Tampa Bay Rays 3-2 to drop to 4-8 in spring training. Another nice outing by Happ was the best news of the day for the Phils.

Moyer got the start and went five innings, allowing two runs on six hits and a walk. Happ followed Moyer and allowed a run in three innings, giving up four hits and a walk. The run that Happ allowed came on a solo homer by Gabe Kapler.

Moyer called the outing his worst appearance of the spring. Let’s all keep our fingers crossed he’s not losing his marbles.

Offensively, the Phillies had three hits. Andy Tracy hit a solo home run with two outs in the ninth to get the Phillies within a run. Cairo was 2-for-3 with two singles, raising his spring average to .318. Mayberry 0-for-3. Donald 0-for-2 with a walk. Paulino 0-for-2, dropping his average to .200. Coste 0-for-1.

Werth was supposed to start the game in center but was scratched with a groin issue. He is expected to play today. I think you should be concerned but not surprised by all the problems Werth is having getting on the field this spring — the roster puts the Phillies in a spot where they’re going to have problems if Werth isn’t ready to go once the season starts. There’s still a lot of time, though.

Burrell was at DH for the Rays and went 1-for-3. He’s hitting .333 this spring.

The Phillies play the Pirates this afternoon.

In the World Baseball Classic, Rodrigo Lopez did not pitch yesterday as Cuba beat Mexico 16-4. Mexico plays Korea on Sunday and Cuba plays Japan.


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