Flummoxed by how much better Pedro Martinez was at preventing runs than Cole Hamels in 2009 despite the fact that Hamels allowed fewer total bases plus walks per inning pitched, I thought I’d look at those two guys a little more closely.
Here’s the percentage of plate appearances that ended in these results for each of the pitchers in 2009:
|BB or HBP||1B||2B||3B||HR|
Hamels gave up a lot more singles than Pedro did. And, much less importantly, triples at a slightly higher rate. Still, given that Hamels gave up walks, doubles and home runs less frequently, that didn’t help me a whole lot.
Neither did this:
|% of PA
|TB per XBH|
So Hamels gave up extra-base hits less frequently. On average, when he did, the extra-base hits went for slightly less bases.
If it’s not an issue about how many, maybe it’s a question of when. In this case I think it was. Look:
|% of PA
|TB per XBH|
|Hamels, bases empty||8.7||2.73|
|Hamels, men on||9.4||2.72|
|Pedro, bases empty||17.3||2.78|
|Pedro, men on||2.3||2.50|
Opposing hitters were about as likely to get extra-base hits against Hamels with runners on base or with the bases empty — a little more likely with men on. Batters that faced Pedro with the bases empty had a better than 1-in-6 chance to get an extra-base hit. With men on base, though, Pedro faced 87 hitters and allowed one double and one triple. Hitters posted a 224/294/263 line against him with men on base compared to 310/337/630 with the bases empty. With men on base, batters were more than four times as likely to get an extra-base hit against Hamels than they were against Martinez.
The Blue Jays beat the Phillies 5-2 yesterday. Halladay gave up four runs in the first inning, two of which came on a two-run homer by Aaron Hill. Halladay would pitch just three innings in the game, allowing four runs on five hits to raise his spring ERA to 3.46. Polanco and Francisco hit solo home runs to account for the Phillies scoring. Rollins was 2-for-3 to raise his spring average to .297.
Joe Blanton had a bullpen session yesterday that was cut short by a sore left abdominal muscle. The linked article suggests that the issue could prevent him from starting the third game of the season.
Brad Lidge had a cortisone shot on Tuesday and will not throw again until tomorrow.
The Phillies signed Josh Fogg and Ty Taubenheim to minor league contracts. The 33-year-old righty Fogg pitched well for the Rockies in 2009, mostly in relief, throwing 45 2/3 innings with a 3.74 ERA and a 1.14 ratio. Taubenheim is a 27-year-old right-handed pitcher who has thrown 46 major league innings in his career between the Blue Jays and Pirates.
The article linked above says the Phils will head to Philadelphia after today’s game with the Pirates.