And if that's the silver lining the cloud must really be something
November 30 2007

If you're looking for the silver lining with Shane Youman you gotta go with his 2006 season:

As silver linings go, 21 2/3 innings as a 26-year-old is a little slim.  Still, slim is better than nothing.  In 2006 he still didn't strike anyone out and still walked way too many, but opponents hit .200 against him and slugged just .280.  They had just four extra-base hits in 88 plate appearances. 

If that's got you all giddy you may just want to avoid his 2007 numbers altogether.  He and Eaton had the same ERA+ of 73.  But even in '07, Youman was only terrible as a starter.  In eight relief appearances he allowed 15 hits and 3 walks in 15 1/3 innings while throwing to a 4.11 ERA.

David Riske may be close to signing with the Brewers.

This article says that the Phillies are one of six teams interested in Geoff Jenkins.

You-probably-not-the-man
November 29 2007

In the a lot-of-stuff-would-have-to-go-wrong category, the Phils claimed left-handed pitcher Shane Youman off of waivers and added him to their 40-man roster.  Youman just turned 28 and is 3-7 with a 5.13 ERA in 79 career innings, all with the Pirates.  He was 3-5 with a 5.97 ERA for Pittsburgh last year.  He struck out 29 in 57 1/3 innings and opponents hit .298 against him.  In his career he has struck 34 and walked 33.  He's probably not the answer for the Phils, but the effort to corner the market on mans between Outman and Youman seems fiendishly clever.  Will Batman succumb to the pressure and join the Phils?  Time will tell.

This article suggests Rowand is out of the picture for the White Sox cause he is too pricey.  This article thinks Rowand's fellow center fielder Mike Cameron will decline arbitration.

For a lot of reasons, I'm still not sold on the Phils not looking for help at third base.  I believe that pitching is the priority, specifically finding a starter, but I think third base help is still in the mix.  You have to think the chances of bringing back Rowand, however slim, would increase at least a little if the Phils don't add help at third.  This article suggests that Melvin Mora would approve a trade only to the Phillies or one of the New York teams.

This article reviews the Phillies payroll and goals for the Winter Meetings.

This article says the Pirates are looking to trade Matt Morris.

As long as we're going to keep turning Ryan Madson into stuff, how 'bout a third baseman?
November 28 2007

It probably couldn't turn out much worse than trying to turn him into a starter.

Remember this?  Unfazed by his right-handedness, there was a time this season that the Phillies thought the answer to their bullpen woes was using Ryan Madson as a lefty out of the pen.  It wasn't all just talk, either, for at least a short time they actually did it.  In this game, for example, they let Madson hit for himself in the bottom of the eighth with the Phils up 8-7 and two outs and a man on second and he came back to face the switch-hitter and two lefties at the top of the Giants' order in the ninth.  I thought it was cuckoo for CocoPuffs then and I think it is now.  But it turns out the joke may be on me.

Here's what lefties did against Madson this season:

Madson was fantastic against lefties this season.  They went 15-for-88 against him with just six extra-base hits, four doubles and two home runs. 

It's not time to climb aboard the Madson for left-handed specialist train just yet, though.  And not just because the idea is so ridiculous, either.  In the game I mentioned above, for example, Madson did come back to pitch the ninth.  He got the switch-hitter Randy Winn to start the inning, but walked the two lefties behind him.  One would go on to score and tie the game.  The Phils won it on a walkoff shot by Victorino in the bottom of the ninth.

Madson walked lefties at a higher rate than he ever has before, issuing a free pass to 16 of the 107 left-handed hitters he faced, about 15% of the batters.  Predictably, he has always walked more lefties than righties.  Coming into this season, however, he had walked lefties at the highest rate in 2005 when he walked 16 of 165 batters, about 9.7%.

Madson threw two innings in 2003 and followed that up with the best season of his career in 2004, pitching to a 2.34 ERA with a 1.13 ratio out of the Phils pen.  He was less effective in relief in '05, throwing to 4.14 ERA with a 1.25 ratio, before his miserable 2006 season in which he started 17 games and was moved back to the pen.  He ended '06 at 11-9 with a 5.69 ERA.  He bounced back nicely this season -- working exclusively out of the pen he went 2-2 with a 3.05 ERA and a ratio of 1.26.

Here's what right and left-handed hitters have done against him in those years:

Madson dominated lefties this season, but despite that his numbers overall still didn't get back to his '04 levels.  One reason that they didn't is that he walked batters at the highest rate of his career, both overall and especially left-handed batters.  Another is that while he shut down lefties, righties hit him a lot harder than they did in either of his other full years as a reliever.  This year, for example, the 593 OPS he held lefties to against him was the 22nd best among the 167 NL pitchers that threw at least 20 innings against lefties.  But the 721 OPS that righties posted against him was just 93rd best of 218 NL pitchers that threw at least 20 innings against righties.  By comparison, in his best season, 2004, the 654 OPS lefties posted against him was 38th best among 169 NL pitchers that threw 20 innings against lefties.  His OPS against righties was 35th best among 206 pitchers that threw 20 frames against righties.

The notion of using Madson as a specialist to get out lefties is preposterous.  He was fantastic against righties as recently as 2005.  The good news that I think the Phillies think so too.  Despite the use of Madson to try to get some lefties at a desperate time for the bullpen this season, the Phils didn't have him face an unusually high numbers of left-handed hitters for the season overall.  Here's how many batters Madson has faced over the last four seasons and how many of them have been left-handed:

He obviously faced more lefties as a starter in 2006, but he faced lefties at about the same rate this season as he had in his other two full years as a reliever.

Sooner or later someone's going to have to explain to CJ Henry that if he keeps hitting .181 at Single-A the Yankees aren't going to want him, either.  The whole thing was a little weird, though.  Still is.  If CJ Henry starts to wear contacts and hits .340 next year I feel it will be more than any of us should be asked to shoulder.  Speaking of which, you know what story I can't get enough of?  Pat Burrell and whether or not he's wearing contacts.  Can someone get that one fired up again sometime soon, please?  Maybe put together a 24-hour cable channel to broadcast breaking news on the subject or something?

This article says that this year's ballgirls will have personality and won't be wearing lingerie and are misperceived by the public.

After two years with the Mets, broadcaster Tom McCarthy has signed a five-year contract with the Phillies.  That's great news for Phillies' fans, cause he's really good at his job.

Greg Roth, who blogs, or at least did as recently as the end of August, about the Phillies at Caught Looking, is also a singer-songwriter who has released an album.  You can check it out here.

You've got mail! And a new outfielder with a lower body kinda like peanut brittle!
November 27 2007

This mailbag from the Phillies web site says that Snelling is nothing more than a bat off the bench for the Phils and the team would replace Rowand with a bigger name than Snelling if the Phils lost Rowand.  A bigger name than Chris Snelling?!!  Dare we dream?  That's actually great news if it's true, but I think Snelling is likely to have a bigger role than that as long as he's ambulatory.  Snelling may not be a big name, but I do think he's going to hit when healthy, enough to play regularly.  The bad news is that it seems close to a sure thing that that won't be long.  A healthy Snelling platooning in right with Werth wouldn't be the end of the world -- it's not going to happen, though, and if it does it's not going to happen for long.  If Snelling and Werth in right is Plan A, whatever Plan B turns out to be is going to be important, cause Werth shouldn't be getting all the starts in right against righties. 

This mailbag from the Astros' web site suggests that Houston got Ed Wade in part to help rebuild the minor league system.  I can confirm that any rumors you've heard that Houston will bring in The Bad News Bears' Rudi Stein and task him with rebuilding the pitching staff are a flat out lie.

Interview with Bill Giles here.

This article says that the Mariners are strong favorites to land Hiroki Kuroda, but that the Phils continue to have serious talks with Randy Wolf.

Walks per nine less than fine for Phils' relievers
November 26 2007

Phillies' pitchers issued 558 walks this year, the most they have allowed in the past five seasons.  The pen was miserable for most of the way, so it's not a surprise that it was the relievers to blame.  The starting pitchers actually walked hitters at a lower rate this season than they did last.  In 938 1/3 innings they issued 309 walks, about 2.96 per nine inning.  In '06, Phils starters walked 308 in 921 1/3 innings, about 3.01 per nine innings.  This season the relievers walked 249 in 520 innings (4.31 per nine) after walking 204 in 539 innings a year ago (3.41).

The 4.31 walks per nine innings for the Phillies' relievers was the worst in the league.  The Marlins were the only team that saw their relievers walk more than the 249 that Phillies' relievers walked -- they walked 266 in 586 2/3 innings (4.08 per nine).  The Cubs' pen was even a little closer, they walked 228 in 491 innings (4.18).

Here's a look at how many walks per inning were issued by Phillies' pitchers that threw at least 30 innings this season:

Kendrick and Hamels were the stars of the show for the Phils. 

Working as a closer for the first time, Myers predictably struck out batters at the highest rate of his career, but his walks were also up significantly.  After walking 3.17 batters per nine innings in 2004, Myers posted a 2.84 in '05 and a 2.86 in '06.  His walk rate this season is oddly similar to his numbers as a young starter -- in 2003 he walked 76 of the 848 hitters he faced, about 8.96%.  This year he walked 27 of the 293 batters he faced, about 9.21%, after walking 68 of 905 (about 7.51%) in '05 and 63 of 833 (about 7.56) in '06.

Madson is the other guy that is curious.  Despite having good numbers out of the pen overall for the Phils, his walk rate was the highest of his career.  Even in his miserable 2006 season he started in the rotation and ended with a 5.69 ERA, Madson walked 50 of the 620 hitters he faced (about 8.06%).  This season he walked 23 of 237 (9.7%).

This article lists six teams that have contacted Matt Clement's agent.  The Phillies are not among them.  Other teams aren't among them, too, but you'd have to check their blogs for complete not-in-the-list details.

Brandon Watson and the restofit
November 24 2007

The Phillies signed RHP Ron Chiavacci, RHP Matt Childers, RHP Kris Wilson, 1B Andy Tracy, OF Michael Restovich and OF Brandon Watson.  Whether you believe Chris Snelling makes the team or not, spots are short on the 25-man roster for next season.  If one of those guys winds up on the team in April it's a really bad sign. 

Ron Chiavacci is 30 and still looking for his first major league action.  The Scranton native appeared in 26 games for the Tigers last season at Triple-A, going 12-6 with a 3.93 ERA and a 1.26 ratio.

Childers turns 29 next month and has been hit hard in 11 appearances with the Brewers and the Braves.  He threw to a 5.17 ERA at Ottawa for the Phillies in '07.

Kris Wilson is 31 and has a 5.44 ERA in 95 career appearances, 90 of which came with the Royals and five of which came with the Yankees.

Andy Tracy is 34 and has 223 career at-bats with the Expos and Rockies in which he's posted a 224/302/418 line.  He had good numbers for the Mets in the PCL last year.  He hit 271/387/472 with 23 home runs in 472 at-bats. 

Restovich is a former second round pick of the Twins and has a 239/319/377 line in 268 at-bats as a corner outfielder with the Twins, Pirates, Cubs, Nats and Rockies.  He has a name you're familiar with, but despite having the best shot of the guys in this group, his chances to make the Phillies this year if nobody gets hurt are slim.   He did slug .503 with 20 home runs in 356 at-bats in the International League in '07.  His .503 slugging percentage was second in the league.  He's 28.

Brandon Watson is just 26 and has a 198/250/279 line in 86 at-bats with the Nats and the Reds.  He can play center field, but he just hasn't been able to hit at the major league level despite a career .305 average in the minors.  He's had a tiny number of at-bats, but even if he gets his average up he has a career slugging percentage of .360 in the minors and that makes him very hard to use.  I've been kind of down on him since at least April 12 of 2006.

Remember CJ Henry?  Acquired as part of the Abreu deal, he's back with the Yankees after being released by the Phils.

The Angels signed Torri Hunter.  Hunter was one of the premier center fielders available along with Rowand.

Pat Burrell is headed to the University of Miami Sports Hall of Fame.

This article suggests the Mets may be interested in Freddy Garcia.

Don't hate the most-valuable player, hate the game
November 21 2007

Jimmy Rollins nipped Matt Holliday to win the NL MVP.  Ryan Howard finished fifth and Utley eighth.  Rowand got one eighth-place vote and finished tied for 22nd.

With all due respect to everyone's WARP, VORP, FORP and DORP, the voters got it right.  Whether or not you agree depends a lot on what you think of Jimmy Rollins' defense and his statement that the Phils were the team to beat in the division and the way he backed it up.  Both were pretty impressive.

The award is subjective.  If it wasn't there wouldn't need to be a vote.  We could just look at everyone's numbers and multiply them by the square root of 17 or whatever and we'd all know who won about six hours after the season was over.  If you think it should go to the player you would pick first if you were playing a baseball sim where everyone gets their '07 numbers, I agree that there are a bunch of guys who just got screwed.  The question of who is the most outstanding player is something a little different, though.  And what Rollins did for the Phillies this season was one of the more outstanding things I've seen in a while.

After you've looked at all the numbers, you have to ask how much weight to give to the fact that Rollins declared that the Phillies were the team to beat in the division and that they became exactly that.  If you think it shouldn't impact the voting at all, I don't agree.  In the same way, if you think it's the only thing that's important, that if Rollins said it and then it happened that he deserved to win the award regardless of how he played, I also don't agree.  And that leaves us in the gray middle.

Just about everything in baseball can be quantified.  Not quite, though.  Some of it's just untouchable.  Even for the hardest of the hard-core fans it's either what you like about the game or what you hate about it.  Naming J-Roll the MVP of the league is about as close as you can get to capturing the part that you can see but doesn't fit into a formula or have a button on your calculator.  He was the right choice for the award not just because of his numbers, but also in spite of them.

That said, Rollins was tied for 60th in on-base percentage among the 109 NL players that had at least 400 plate appearances this season. He fell just short of teammate Shane Victorino's .347 mark.

Since 1911, three other offensive players in the National League have won the award presented to the outstanding player of the year in a season they posted an on-base percentage of .344 or lower (Marty Marion ('44), Steve Garvey ('74), Andre Dawson ('87)).

It's the seventh time that a Phillie has won the award.  Howard won it last year, Schmidt won it in 1980, '81 and 86, Jim Constanty won it in 1950 and Chuck Klein in 1932.

Holliday handled the disappointment of finishing second in a close vote with as much class as you can ask of anyone, saying in a statement through that Rockies that "It's Jimmy Rollins' day, and I don't want to step on his day."  Not everyone in Colorado seems to share the sentiment.  This article, for example, calls Rollins "a nice little player" and compares him winning the award over Holliday to "a parking valet being named driver of the year over NASCAR’s Jimmie Johnson."  I don't agree.  In their games away from home this season, Holliday posted an .860 OPS, one point higher than the .859 OPS that Rollins put up.  One of those guys is a slick-fielding shortstop and the other isn't.

The Phillies acquired Chris Snelling from the Devil Rays for cash.  Snelling is left-handed hitting outfielder who turns 26 next month.  He's played with the Mariners, Nationals and A's, hitting 240/357/380 in 221 at-bats.  He's primarily been a corner outfielder but appeared in six games at center, including five last year for the A's.  Snelling posted a monster 311/395/472 line in over 1,800 at-bats in the minor leagues.  He's nearly a sure thing to hit with the Phillies if he can just stay healthy.  For now he's the fourth outfielder along with Burrell, Victorino and Werth.  If the season started tomorrow he'd presumably be looking at a whole lot of at-bats in right field while sharing the job with Werth. 

He really gets hurt a lot.  He broke his hand in 2000.  His ankle in 2001.  In 2002 he tore his ACL.  He missed all of 2004 after hand surgery.  In 2005 he tore his ACL.  In 2006 he was on the DL with a shoulder problem.  Last year he played 24 games with the Nats and hit a meager 204/361/327 before Washington traded him to the A's for Ryan Langerhans on May 2.  He played in six games with the A's, going 7-for-20, before he injured his left knee.  Devil Dogs claimed him off of waivers in October.

If he's able to walk, I'd be surprised if he didn't make the team to start the season.  It's a nice pickup for the Phils.  He can hit.  What he can't do is stay healthy, but it's worth a shot and it didn't cost the Phillies a player to add him. 

The Phillies added Jason Jaramillo and Brad Harman to their 40-man roster.  The middle infielder Harman hit 281/341/449 in 448 at-bats at Single-A Clearwater last season and turned 22 on Monday.  Maybe he and Snelling can put a couple shrimp on the barbie together.

The Mets traded Guillermo Mota for catcher Johnny Estrada.

International arrivals
November 20 2007

If most of the guys who saw time in the Arizona Fall League aren't likely to be a factor for the Phils for a while, Jason Jaramillo and Josh Outman, who played for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic, should be arriving soon. 

Outman appeared in five games in the AFL, playing for both the Saguaros with Team USA in World Cup tune-ups.  In three games with the Sags he threw 7 2/3 innings, allowing five earned runs while walking two and striking out eight.  In two games with Team USA against AFL teams, he threw six innings over two games and allowed one earned run on a walk and five strikeouts.

Between his AFL appearances with the Saguaros and Team USA, Outman threw 13 2/3 innings, allowing six earned runs on 16 hits and three walks. He struck out 13. That's a 3.95 ERA and a 1.39 ratio.

In the Baseball World Cup he pitched in two games.  He allowed three runs on five hits and two walks against Italy, but all of the runs were unearned.  Against Chinese Taipei, Outman allowed two earned runs in five innings on three hits.  He also was charged with an unearned run.  He struck out eight and didn't walk a batter.

Between the two appearances in the Baseball World Cup, Outman threw eight innings, allowing six runs on eight hits and two walks.  He struck out ten.  Only two of the six runs were earned, which would give him a 2.25 ERA with a 1.50 ratio.  Some sources of information suggest that only one of the six runs was earned.  I'm going to level with you -- I wasn't there.  Either way he pitched well against Chinese Taipei and not well against Italy, but the Italy outing didn't hurt his ERA due to unearned runs.

Jaramillo went 3-for-12 with a home run, a double and three RBI in AFL tune-ups with Team USA, posting a 250/333/500 line in five games.

He went 6-for-19 in 22 plate appearances in the Baseball World Cup.  The tournament took a non-traditional approach to stats, but by my calculations, which were almost literally done on the back on an envelope, I think he hit 316/364/368 with a double, two walks and two RBI.  The 25-year-old looks sure to get a chance at some point with the Phils next season and appears to be  the first option if Coste or Ruiz struggle or go down with injury, .361 slugging percentage at Triple-A last year or not.

The NL MVP will be announced today.

Joe dirt
November 19 2007

Joe Savery was the star of the show for the Phils in the Arizona Fall League this year, but not the only story.  Here's a look at what the Phils' hitters did in the AFL this year:

Golson also played at Single-A Clearwater and Double-A Reading this season.  In the three stops, his highest on-base percentage was .322, which came in his 418 at-bats at Clearwater.  Between Clearwater, Reading and the AFL, he got 680 at-bats in which he struck out 196 times and walked 31 times.  There's not a whole lot of good news, but what there is starts with the fact that he just turned 22.  He's going to get a chance at some point, but it's going to be a while.

Gosewisch is 24 and looks like he's going to have to hit a whole lot more if he's ever going to have a chance.  He posted a .647 OPS in 339 at-bats at Clearwater in '07 and it's just not enough, no matter what he can do with the glove.

And here are the pitchers, not including Outman who pitched in the AFL but then moved on to play for the US team in the Baseball World Cup. 

Not much about Pat Overholt's AFL performance makes the decision to convert him from a reliever to a starter look a lot better.  His 5.23 ERA isn't impressive, but his walks were way down and the 1.02 ratio is hard to ignore.  Between Reading and Clearwater, Overholt walked 73 hitters in 152 1/3 innings this season.

Joe Savery's numbers were just fantastic.  Opponents hit .091 against him.  He did walk a lot of hitters, which he also did in his brief time with in the New York-Penn league this season.  I'd be surprised to see him pitching with the Phils next season in anything other than a September call-up. 

Jason Anderson wasn't particularly impressive.  Given his age, 28, and the fact that he has major league experience, I would tend to think he's the guy of the four most likely to help the Phillies on the field in 2008.  The problem with that is that if the Phillies want to give him a chance to pitch out of their pen there isn't ever going to be bigger need than they had last year and last year Anderson did his pitching for the Phils at Double-A and Triple-A.

Joe Bisenius had a miserable year in 2007 and it didn't get any better in the AFL.  He struck a lot of guys out, 41 in 46 innings at Ottawa, but walked a ton (31) as well.  In the 56 innings he threw between Triple-A and the AFL combined he threw to a 5.63 ERA.  He got a chance to throw a couple of innings for the Phils this season, but after his strong '06 his injury-slowed 2007 has been a disappointment.

Team USA beat Cuba 6-3 in the finals of the Baseball World Cup.  Jason Jaramillo was in the middle of things, he went 2-for-4 with a double and two RBI. 

Yorvit Torrealba to the Mets doesn't look like such a sure thing anymore.  This article says the Mets agreed to a deal with Luis Castillo that is contingent upon him passing a physical. 

The Braves agreed to a deal with Glavine. 

The Wright stuff
November 17 2007

In the Baseball World Cup, Team USA beat Korea 3-1 to advance to the semi-finals against the Netherlands.  Jaramillo caught and went 1-for-2 with a single and a walk. 

With Jaramillo on the bench in the semis, Team USA got four runs in the bottom of the eighth and went on to win 5-0.  The Royals' Matt Wright got the start and threw six scoreless innings, allowing four hits and two walks while striking out six.  Cuba beat Japan 5-3, so the US Team will be facing Cuba in the finals. 

Jon Lieber's agent thinks there's a chance Lieber could pitch for the Phillies next year.  Me?  Not so much.

The Braves traded reliever Oscar Villarreal to the Astros for outfielder Josh Anderson.  Villarreal has been a big part of the Braves staff the last two years, throwing to a 4.24 ERA in 76 1/3 relief innings in 2007.  In '06 he pitched in 58 games, four of which were starts, and went 9-1 with a 3.61 ERA in 92 1/3 innings.  Anderson hit 273/325/341 in 513 at-bats in the PCL last season.  He stole 40 bases, but slugging .341 in the PCL is a truly miserable sign.  I don't think that's a good trade for the Braves --  it does look like a nice move by Ed Wade, who has all the speedy center fielders who won't hit for power he needs with the addition of Bourn.

The Braves may be close to signing Glavine.

Everything's just Jake in the Cy Young voting
November 16 2007

Jake Peavy won the NL Cy Young award, getting all 32 first-place votes.  Hamels finished sixth.

The Peoria Saguaros played their final game of the AFL season, losing 6-5 to the Javelinas.  They finish at 10-22.  Golson was 1-for-5 with a single to finish at .266.  Gosewisch went 1-for-4 to finish at .250.

This article says that Mike Lowell has a three-year offer from the Red Sox and a four-year offer from the Yankees.  I would be flabbergasted if he wound up with the Phils.

Yorvit Torrealba appears to be headed to the Mets.

I have added a page where I will track my best guess about who will be on the 2008 Phillies.

Oh good
November 15 2007

Yes, I know that if you have to explain the joke it's not funny.  But I'm gonna explain it anyway, and after I have I think we'll all agree it wasn't that funny to start with.  Charlie Manuel often uses the word "good" where some would expect to hear the word "well."  For example, Chris Wheeler might say something like, "Joe Shlabotnik has hit 11 home runs over the past four games.  Is that the kind of thing that can really help a team?" And Manuel might say something like, "Yeah.  He's hittin' the ball good."  Get it?

Arizona's Bob Melvin was named NL Manager of the Year.  Charlie Manuel finished second, getting seven first-place votes to Melvin's 19.  That's a little disappointing, but it's hard to argue with the choice of Melvin given the performance of the Diamondbacks this season.  Manuel made some miserable decisions on the field this season, but no manager in baseball could have gotten more out of the '07 Phillies.

Team USA improved to 6-1 in the Baseball World Cup with a 10-7 win over Chinese Taipei.  Coming off a weak performance against Italy, Josh Outman got the start for the US team and bounced back nicely.  He struck out eight in five innings while allowing three runs on three hits.  Only one of the runs was earned and he did not walk a batter.  Jaramillo, who was 0-for-4 in the South Africa game, was on the bench as Bryan Anderson caught Outman.  The US team finishes atop Group A and will face Korea in the quarter-finals.  Korea was 4-3 in Group B play, finishing fourth.

No surprises in the AFL as the Saguaros fell again, losing to the Surprise Rafters 6-5 in ten innings to drop to 10-21.  Pat Overholt got the start and had a nice outing.  He allowed a run on just one hit over four innings to drop his ERA to 5.23.  Jason Anderson went two innings, allowing a run in the ninth to blow the save and giving up what proved to be the game-winning home run in the top of the tenth.  His AFL ERA is 4.50.  Golson continued to be hot at the plate.  He was 2-for-5 with a triple and two RBI.  He is 8-for-his-last-15 and hitting .269.

This article suggests the Phillies might be interested in left-handed hitting outfielder Kosuke Fukudome.  Stats here, article here.   I'd be pretty surprised to see him on the Phillies.  Lots of guesses about how much money he might make and not many of them are under $10 million a year. 

Marlins' pitchers willing to go the extra mile to make Dolphin Stadium a good place to hit
November 14 2007

Of the five teams in the NL East, three, the Phils, Mets and Marlins allowed more runs in 2007 than they did in 2006.

The Braves and Nationals allowed fewer.  Here ya go:

The Braves allowed significantly fewer runs this than they did in '06.  Their starters, led by Tim Hudson and John Smoltz were slightly better.  Hudson and Smoltz combined to make 66 starts in which they went 30-18 with a 3.22 ERA.  Smoltz was a little better than he was in '06, but Hudson was significantly better.  Hudson went 16-10 with a 3.33 ERA after going 13-12 with a 4.86 ERA in '06.  But if the starting rotation was a little better, the relievers were significantly better.  In 2006, Atlanta relievers threw to a 4.39 ERA, 11th best in the NL.  In 2007 they were stabilized by 90 innings from Peter Moylan in which he threw to a 1.80 ERA and another 72 from Rafael Soriano, who threw to a 3.00 ERA.  As a group, Atlanta relievers dropped their ERA to 3.54, which was second-best in the NL behind only the Padres.

Overall, of the five teams in the division Atlanta is the team that improved the most from 2006 to 2007.  They scored fewer runs, but they more than made up for it by allowing significantly fewer.  After finishing 18 games out in 2006 they were just five behind the division-leading Phils this season.

If they Braves are nipping at the heels of the clubs at the top of the division, the other team in the NL that saw a dramatic improvement in their pitching last season is not.  The Nationals were even better than the Braves at preventing runs compared to their '06 incarnation. But if they don't figure out a way to score a whole lot more runs they don't have much of a chance to finish above fourth in the division.

In 2006 the Nats' starters were the worst in the league.  In '07 they were a little better. After throwing to an NL-worst 5.37 ERA in '06, Washington starters threw to a 5.11 ERA in '07, which was 15th of the 16 NL teams.  Their relievers were much better, however.  They posted a 3.81 ERA, fourth best in the NL, coming off of a year when they threw to a 4.49 ERA (12th). Chad Cordero, Jon Rauch, Saul Rivera and Jesus Colome all had solid years out of the pen.  All four of them threw at least 65 innings with an ERA below 3.85.  Three of that group, Cordero, Rauch and Rivera, also did it they year before.  Jason Bergmann, Felix Rodriguez and Chris Schroder did a lot of the damage to the Nats' pen in '06.  In 2007, Bergmann pitched as a starter, Rodriguez didn't pitch at all and Schroder pitched out of the bullpen again but posted a 3.18 ERA in 45 1/3 innings after throwing to 6.35 ERA in 28 1/3 innings in '06.

That leaves us with the three teams that allowed more runs in '07 than they did in '06.  Of those three, the Mets and Phillies allowed just about the same number of runs and the Marlins allowed many, many more.

The Phillies' starters were slightly better in '07, but their bullpen was miserable.

In 2006, the Mets bullpen threw to the lowest ERA in the NL, 3.25. They were off that mark in '07, eighth-best in the league at 3.99.  Their starters picked up the slack, though, posting a fifth-best 4.40 ERA after throwing to an eighth-best 4.67 in '06. Oliver Perez and Orlando Hernadez carried a lot of the load there, combing to throw to a 3.63 ERA in 324 2/3 innings all except 3 2/3 of which were as starters.  In '06 they combined to pitch to a 4.64 ERA in 153 1/3 innings.

And then there's the Marlins, who went from allowing a sixth-best in the NL 772 runs in 2006 to allowing a league-worst 891 in 2007.  That's the kind of thing you need a bunch of guys to get together to pull off, and the Fish did it.  Fantastically, the relievers actually got a little better, improving from a 4.67 ERA (14th-best in the NL) in '06 to a 4.02 in '07 (10th).  The starters were just hide-your-eyes bad, though, throwing to a ridiculous, league-worst 5.58 ERA in what has traditionally been a pitchers park.  That's the worst ERA for a group of starting pitchers for a season since the 2003 Cincinnati Reds, who may look back now and feel that 20 was just too many starts to give to Ryan Dempster if he was going to throw to a 6.54 ERA.  For this year's Marlins, Dontrelle Willis, Scott Olsen, Byung-Hyun Kim and Rick Vanderhurk all made at least 17 starts and threw to an ERA of 5.17 or worse.  Of the 162 games the Marlins played, 129 of the starts went to pitchers who would end the year having thrown to an ERA over 5.00 with the team.  They got zero starts from a pitcher who ended the year with an ERA better than 4.65 with the team.

In the Arizona Fall League, the Saguaros are 10-20 after falling to the Javelinas 17-5.  Golson had two more hits, he was 2-for-5 to raise his average to .263.  Gosewisch was 1-for-4 with a single and is hitting .250.

This article talks about candidates to manage the Triple-A team next year after the departure of Russell.

I've got no place for this so I'm just going with right here -- two things I've heard over and over about the Phils of late that I'm just not buying.  1) The Lidge trade was brilliant cause it lets the Phils put Brett Myers back in the bullpen.  Huh?  Nobody wrote anywhere that the Phillies needed to turn Brett Myers into a closer in the first place.  It worked.  The Phils won the division so there's not much to complain about, but nobody said you have to take your 26-year-old starter who is the second best pitcher in your organization and make him a reliever.  How 'bout just getting a relief pitcher so you don't have to pitch Jose Mesa and Antonio Alfonseca and their ilk every day like it's their job?  Even without Lidge, the Phillies needed to put Myers back in the rotation.  Moving Myers to the pen temporarily to stabilize it while they found a solution made sense.  Putting him there permanently is just a bad decision.  Gillick has made some moves while with the Phillies that deserve to be called brilliant, but calling the Lidge trade one of them because it allows Myers to return to the rotation isn't among them.  And 2) the Phillies won't try to improve at third this off-season.  With a right-hander on the mound, Greg Dobbs can't play both third and right.  Seriously.  Too far.  I think there's a rule, too.  Even if there's not, if he tries to run back and forth there's nearly no way he can get from right field to third base in time to field a ground ball unless it's really softly hit.  On the other hand, it probably couldn't make him a much less effective defender at third.  If there's no Rowand, the Phils need either a left-handed outfielder to share right with Werth or they make Dobbs that guy and get someone else to play third with Helms and Bruntlett.

Unlikely Plan of the Year
November 13 2007

Ryan Braun was named the NL Rookie of the Year, just beating out Troy Tulowitski.  Kendrick finished fifth and got one second place place vote.  He was the only player besides Braun or Tulowitski to get a second-place vote.  The Astos' Hunter Pence and the Diamondbacks' Chris Young finished third and fourth.

Kendrick didn't deserve to win the award, but the Phillies wouldn't have had a chance to win the NL East this season without him after Garcia and Eaton struggled terribly in the starting rotation.  Kudos to the Phillies for calling Kendrick's number when the situation got desperate, but it's hard to believe there weren't a lot of people in the organization surprised he pitched so well this season.

Team USA is guaranteed a spot in the quarterfinals after being South Africa 4-2 in the Baseball World Cup.  They are 5-1 and face Chinese Taipei next in their final game before the quarterfinals -- the two teams are tied atop Group A and will be playing for the top seed in the elimination rounds.

The Saguaros dropped to 10-19 in the AFL with an 11-7 loss to the Scottsdale Scorpions.  Golson was 4-for-5 with two triples and a stolen base.  He's hitting .255.  The Sags have three games left.

This mailbag from the Mariners web site reviews the Jamie Moyer trade and what Andrews Barb and Baldwin did in the minors last year.

This article reviews the Phillies' payroll situation and suggests that neither Lohse or Rowand is expected to return.

Something's fishy with the Silver Slugger awards
November 12 2007

Jimmy Rollins is going to do just fine when it comes to post-season hardware if he just wins the awards he deserves.  It was great to see him win a Gold Glove and I'll be disappointed if he isn't named NL MVP.  But Hanley Ramirez should have won the NL's Silver Slugger at short this season.

Here's a look at the numbers for the two overall this year:

Ramirez was just better overall, hitting for a better average and getting on base significantly more often.  Ramirez posted a better slugging percentage than Rollins did despite the fact that J-Roll had more extra base hits than Ramirez did.  Rollins had 88, Ramirez 83.

Rollins made 527 outs, though, more than any other player in baseball.  He got 778 plate appearances.  Ramirez made 459 outs in 706 plate appearances.  So in 72 more plate appearances, Rollins made 68 more outs.  Ramirez walked 52 times in his 706 plate appearances, Rollins 49 times in his 778.  So again, in 72 more plate appearances, Rollins walked three times fewer than Ramirez.

Rollins also played in a better hitters' park than Ramirez did, although it looks like the park factors for Dolphin Stadium will be less dramatic for '07 than they have been in previous years.

Here's what Rollins and Ramirez did at home and away this season:

Using OPS as the measure, Ramirez was better at home than he was away from home. 

He was also better both away from home and at home than Rollins was at Citizens Bank Park this season.

This article says that the Mets were interested in Lidge but wouldn't give up a package headed by Carlos Gomez or Fernando Martinez. 

Team USA hammered Spain, 12-2, to improve to 4-1 in the Baseball World Cup.  Bryan Anderson, who Jaramillo is competing with for playing time at catcher, went 4-for-4 with a home run. 

The US team plays 0-5 South Africa next.

If the Phils' front office keeps adding a quality reliever every other day they might be able to finally take some time off around Thanksgiving
November 10 2007

Or Christmas, maybe.  This article says that the Phillies and JC Romero have agreed to a multi-year deal.  That's fantastic news for the Phils.  And they didn't even have to give up a 24-year-old who hit 27 home runs last year to get him.

Utley and Rollins won Silver Slugger awards.  First for Rollins and second for Utley.  J-Roll deserves a ton of recognition for what he did this season, but Hanley Ramirez was the better offensive player at short last year.

This article says that more than 600 women tried out to be Phillies' ballgirls.

The numbers on Outman's outing against Italy in the Baseball World Cup were bad, but he got some bad defense behind him.  He got the start and allowed three runs on five hits and two walks in three innings, but none of the runs were earned.  Jaramillo was 0-for-3.

Most recently, Team USA beat Japan 5-1 to improve to 3-1 in the World Cup.  Delwyn Young hit a three-run homer in the first to put the US team up early.  Jaramillo was 1-for-2.

Spain is next for the US.  After Spain it's South Africa and then Chinese Taipei.

In the AFL, the Sags are 10-18 after losing to the Phoenix Desert Dogs today 5-2.  Joe Savery had yet another good outing.  Savery allowed a hit and two walks in three scoreless innings, lowering his ERA to 0.64.  In 14 innings he's allowed four hits.  Jason Anderson also pitched, allowing a run on two hits in an inning to raise his AFL ERA to 3.38.  Golson was 1-for-3 with an RBI, he's at 225/283/360 in 89 at-bats.

On Friday the Saguaros lost 10-3 to the Scottsdale Scorpions.  Golson was 1-for-4 with a walk, a double and two strikeouts.  He stole his seventh base.  Gosewisch was 0-for-4.  He has posted a 250/286/375 in 40 at-bats.

Everything was fine for Brad Lidge until Albert Pujols hit a home run that made lefties hit .286 against him the next season
November 9 2007

With a day to reflect, I still don't feel quite as sold on the Lidge deal as everyone else seems to be.  I definitely love the damn the torpedoes approach from Gillick and don't mind trading away the guys in the minor leagues.  But I'm higher on Costanzo than most and a little more worried about Lidge.

Lidge has put up numbers that were solid in four the five years of his career in which he threw at least ten innings.  He has always struck people out.  Even during his miserable 2006 season he struck out 104 hitters in 75 innings.  And one thing I'm sure of is that giving up a home run to Albert Pujols in 2005 didn't ruin his career.  But his numbers have been off over the last two seasons.  Here's a look at his career numbers for ERA, OPS posted against him by right and left-handed batters and his walks per nine innings in seasons where he threw at least ten innings:

A couple of things stand out.  One is that over the last two years his walks are way too high and up a lot over the two previous seasons.  To put his 4.03 walks per nine innings this season  in Phillies' perspective, that would put him in between Eaton (who walked 3.95 batters per nine innings last season) and Mesa (who walked 4.38 per nine). 

In 2006 he got mauled by lefties.  How mauled?  A lot mauled.  Of the 165 pitchers that threw at least 20 innings against lefties, his .868 OPS was 136th best.  In 2007 he got things back under control against southpaws, but righties hit him a lot harder than they had over his career altogether.

Here's a list of some of the Phillies pitchers who held right-handed hitters to an OPS lower than .766 last season:

And before you say it, yes, Alfonseca must have been truly miserable against lefties.  And he was.  They posted a .971 OPS against him.

Team USA improved to 2-0 in the Baseball World Cup with a 7-0 win against Panama.  Team USA scored four times in the first two innings and held Panama to four hits in the game.  The Dodgers' Andy LaRoche went 3-for-4 with four RBI.  Jaramillo did not play as St Louis' Bryan Anderson started behind the plate.

Things were looking good for Team USA before they were stunned by Italy, losing 6-2.  Josh Outman pitched and got roughed up.  I can't find a box score yet, you should be able access it here at some point.

Japan next.

In the AFL the Saguaros improved to 10-16 with a 9-1 win over the Surprise Rafters.  Pat Overholt got the start for the Sags and had his best AFL outing so far.  He went four scoreless innings, allowing two hits and striking out three.  His ERA dropped to 5.94.  Golson was 2-for-5 with a two-run homer, his second.  He also stole a base, his sixth.  He's hitting .220. 

This article says that the Phillies think that Rowand "might command a four-year, $52 million contract."  I don't think he's going to get that from the Phillies.

The closer
November 8 2007

The Phillies' current and former general managers got together last night and put together a deal.  When it was over the Phils had a closer, had Brett Myers back in the starting rotation and had a virtual guarantee that you will never, ever see Michael Bourn pinch-run for Pat Burrell in the sixth-inning of a one-run game again.

Sounds pretty good.  But it cost a lot.

The Phillies traded Geoff Geary, Michael Bourn and third base prospect Mike Costanzo to the Houston Astros for right-handed closer Brad Lidge and utility player Eric Bruntlett.

Lidge turns 31 next month and went 5-3 with 19 saves and a 3.36 ERA for the Astros last season.  In 67 innings he allowed 54 hits and 30 walks and struck out 88.  As the article linked above mentions, Lidge had surgery on his right knee last month.  The Phillies expect him to be at a 100 percent when the season starts.

Bruntlett is 29 and bats right-handed.  He has a career line of 250/323/364 in 472 at-bats over five seasons, all with the Astros.  During his five years with the Astros he appeared at every infield and outfield position, playing shortstop and second base most frequently.  Presumably for the Phils he can back up at short, second and third and help Werth backup Victorino in center if Rowand does not return.  His addition ensures that Nunez won't be back for the Phils.

The contrast between the two general managers is just fascinating.  Wade gets back three guys he drafted while with the Phillies and Gillick gets the guy in Lidge that he thinks he needs right now.  If Ed Wade wants to load up on Phillies' minor leaguers as part of some conscious or unconscious effort to prove what a great job he did of building the system, well, insert your own Greg Golson joke right here.  I'm signed off on right now for the Phillies.  They've been miserable for too long, if they want to trade away the few chips they have in the minor leagues to try to get it done this season it's okay by me. 

They just did. 

Even on board with the right now strategy, though, that one hurts.  Cause even if you're okay with trading away the few prospects in a minor league system that's already been miserable for a while, you probably weren't counting on them being used to bring back Eric Bruntlett.  Whether you like the deal or not depends a lot on what you think of Mike Costanzo.  I think he's going to be good at a position where the Phillies gave Abraham Nunez 212 at-bats last year.

The Phils aren't going to miss Costanzo or Bourn much on the field this season.  The same isn't true of Geary, who was a key member of the Phils' pen down the stretch last year.  The Phillies did add a closer in the deal, but they poked another hole in the bullpen as well. 

Lidge's knee injury also