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Today’s very early guess on who starts the year with the Phillies. Barring new injuries, I think we can count on these 12 hitters:

Notable no-shows on that list include Ryan Howard, still recovering, Domonic Brown and Michael Martinez.

Assuming you don’t count Wigginton, there are just four outfielders on that list including one, Nix, who can never, ever be used against lefties. On a related note, I have some trouble buying completely into the idea that Wigginton is the nearly every day first baseman while Howard is out. If Thome can play first at all (he probably can’t) he’s clearly the better choice. I think Mayberry is a better choice offensively as well, but to give him much time at first the Phils are going to need someone who can man left field against left-handed pitching. Maybe someone like Ben Francisco? Oh, wait.

I see one or two hitting spots as open, depending on how many pitchers the Phils decide to carry. I think one of them is filled by a fifth outfielder, either Domonic Brown or someone not currently on the roster who hits right-handed.

I think these 12 pitchers are likely to start the year with the Phils:

That assumes Contreras is healthy enough to start the year, of course, which is far from a sure thing. After Contreras, Stutes and Herndon seem like the two pitchers with the least solid hold on their slot. Brian Sanches, Phillippe Aumont and Justin De Fratus seem like the most likely candidates to squeeze past them or take Contreras’s spot if he’s not ready to go.

I have trouble seeing the Phils carrying more than two lefties out of the pen to start 2012. Unless Bastardo or Willis get hurt, or are consistently and resoundingly awful in spring training, I’d be surprised to see Joe Savery or Jake Diekman start the year with the Phils.

Joe Blanton says he’s feeling and throwing well. If he’s healthy he seems like a lock for the rotation. If he’s not I’d guess Kendrick takes his turns in the rotation, barring a big effort in the spring from NRIs Dave Bush and Joel Pineiro.

If the Phillies went with 14 hitters to start the year, my guess would be that Stutes and Herndon would be fighting for the eleventh pitching slot, advantage Stutes.

Cesar Hernandez was fifth on MLB.com’s list of the top ten second base prospects. Sebastian Valle ninth on the list of catching prospects.

Thome says that Spring Training will be the true test for his back in terms of when and how often he might be able to place defensively at first this year. I’m going to be surprised if we see much at all of Thome at first in 2012.

This says the Phillies are one of four teams still in the mix to land Francisco Cordero.

Update: Wilson Valdez was traded to the Reds for 26-year-old left-handed reliever Jeremy Horst.

I updated the Playoff Start Log.

A 49-30 mark through the first 79 games of the season gives the Phils a .620 winning percentage and puts them on a pace to win 100 regular season games this year. Here’s how that pace and their record through 79 games compares to what they’ve done since 2008:

But are the Phillies really better this year than they were any of the previous three? Yeah. I think they are. At least compared to the rest of the National League.

The table below shows, for this year and the three previous, the number of runs the Phillies have scored and allowed per game this season and how that compares to the rest of the NL (not including yesterday’s games):

For example, in 2011, the Phillies have scored 4.05 runs per game and allowed 3.25 runs per game. The average NL team has scored 4.09 runs per game and allowed 4.15. 4.05 is about .990 of 4.09, so the Phils are scoring about .990 the runs per game as the average NL team. They are way better at preventing runs, though, allowing just 3.25 runs per game compared to 4.15 for the average NL team. 3.25 is about 21.7% lower than 4.15. If you combine the two numbers, -1 for the hitting and +21.7, you get the number in the far right column — 20.7 in this case.

And 20.7 is better than any of the results for the other three years.

Those numbers suggest that compared to the average NL teams for those seasons, the 2011 Phils are the best, followed by ’10, ’08 and ’09 in that order. That’s the same result you get if you use their Pythagorean winning percentage — ’11 is best, on pace for 96 wins, 95 wins for ’10, 93 for ’08 and 92 for ’09.

The 2009 team had the best offense and the worst pitching, while the ’08 team was a tiny bit better at preventing runs than the ’10 Phils, but not as good at scoring them. For all of the teams, the Phils have always been above average at both scoring and preventing runs over the past four years with the exception of the 2011 Phillies, who have scored fewer runs than average for the league.

They have made up for that with unbelievable pitching.

A National League team hasn’t allowed 3.25 runs per game for a season for a long time (and, of course, the ’11 Phillies haven’t done it yet). In the strike-shortened 1981 season, both the Dodgers (3.24) and Astros (3.01) allowed less than 3.25 runs per game over 110 games. In 1968, Bob Gibson threw to a 1.12 ERA over 304 2/3 innings and the Cardinals (2.91), Mets (3.06), Dodgers (3.14) and Giants (3.25) all allowed 3.25 runs per game or fewer.

In 1968, the pitching was so dominant that the average NL team allowed just 3.43 runs per game. So even Gibson’s Cardinals, who allowed 2.91 runs per game, allowed about 84.8% of the average runs per game for an NL team. The Phillies this year are allowing about 78.3% of the average runs per game.

Of the six teams listed above, the only one that has a lower mark compared to the rest of their league for that season is the 1981 Houston Astros. The Astros allowed 3.01 runs per game that season while the NL overall allowed 3.91 — so Houston was allowing about 77.0% of the runs per game as the average NL team.

But. While the Phillies pitching staff has been outstanding this year, there have been others that have been equally or more dominant in recent years.

Going back to 1968, there have been several teams that have allowed fewer than the 78.3% of the average runs per game the Phils have allowed this year without allowing 3.25 runs per game or less. They include the ’93 (76.8), ’97 (78.0) and ’98 (78.0) Braves and the 2003 Dodgers (74.5).

The 2003 Dodgers finished eight games above .500 and in second-place in the NL West. They didn’t even make the playoffs, beaten out for the Wild Card by the Marlins. The ’98 Braves won 106 games but lost to the Padres in the NLCS. In 1997 they 101 games and lost to the Fish in the NLCS. In 1993 they won 104 games and the NL West, but lost to the Phils in the NLCS.

The ’03 Dodgers had a pitiful offense, the worst in the league. All three of the Atlanta teams had a better offense relative to the rest of their league in that season than the Phils have had relative to the rest of the NL so far this year.

To end on a high note, the one World Series that Atlanta did manage to win in their pitching-fed run of the 90′s came in 1995. That year the Braves did have the best pitching in the league (81.0% of the average runs allowed per game), but also had a below average offense, which scored just 4.48 runs per game compared to a league average of 4.63.

The Phillies have put Joe Blanton on the DL with a problem with his right elbow.

Righty Vance Worley will start tonight’s game against righty Mike Pelfrey (1-2, 7.23) and the Mets.

Worley, who will turn 24 in September, made five appearances, two of which were starts, for the Phillies in 2010. He pitched very well, throwing to a 1.38 ERA and an 0.92 ratio over 13 innings. In each of his starts he went five innings, allowing two run in ten innings combined. He has made four starts for Triple-A Lehigh Valley so far in 2011, throwing to a 2.78 ERA with a 1.10 ratio while striking out 25 in 22 innings. His last start came on Sunday, so he’ll be pitching on regular rest. He went five innings and threw 89 pitches in that start.

Pelfrey has been awful this year, but the best of the five starts he’s made came his last time out when he held the Diamondbacks to a run on five hits and two walks over seven innings. Opponents are hitting 333/405/529 against him for the season. He hasn’t fared well against lefties in his career — they’ve put up a 295/367/442 line against him over 1,620 plate appearances. He started against the Phils on April 6 and was pounded, charged with seven runs in two innings. Blanton had trouble holding a 7-0 lead in that game, but after the Mets tied the game at 7-7 in the fifth the Phils put three more runs on the board to win 10-7.

The article linked in the top paragraph says that Ruiz will be rest for a few days. This says that Dane Sardinha is headed to Philadelphia, but Blanton to the DL and Worley activated is the only transaction showing on the Phillies web site so far.

The roster for opening day appears to be set, Luis Castillo is gone and the Phils will start their quest for a championship with an offense that includes Wilson Valdez, Pete Orr, Michael Martinez and John Mayberry.

Castillo was released yesterday.

It’s hard not to be at least a little discouraged about the offense and the surprising, to me at least, release of Castillo. Castillo sure seems to have bigger upside for 2011 than any of Valdez, Orr or Martinez. Valdez, who looks to be the everyday second baseman for the Phils for long time, has a career line of 240/289/326, turns 33 in May and never had 150 plate appearances in a season coming into last year.

Yesterday the Phils lost to the Pirates, falling 4-1 to end their spring with a 21-14 mark.

Hamels started and allowed two runs on four hits over three innings. He ends the spring with a 6.67 ERA and a 1.41 ratio in seven starts. Pedro Alvarez hit a two-run homer off of him — Hamels allowed six in 27 innings, which is a lot too many. Allowing home runs at that rate, you would allow about 44.4 over 200 innings.

Blanton also pitched in the game, allowing a run on four hits over three innings. 3.19 ERA and a 1.19 ratio for Blanton, who walked just four in 31 innings.

Kendrick threw a scoreless inning and Juan Perez and Bastardo combined to pitch the ninth, with Perez charged with a run on three hits before Bastardo got the last out of the frame.

The Phils had two hits in the game, a triple by Orr and a single by Rollins. It’s the fifth triple of the spring for Orr.

Martinez went 0-for-2 to drop his line to 233/250/356 in 73 at-bats. I don’t understand what he did to make the team. He must be one electric defensive player.

Mayberry 0-for-1 and Delwyn Young 0-for-2.

Halladay faces Brett Myers tomorrow in a game that counts.

The opening day roster for the Phillies looks like it will include 13 hitters and 12 pitchers.

Hitters: Ruiz, Howard, Valdez, Rollins, Polanco, Ibanez, Victorino, Francisco, Schneider, Gload, Martinez, Mayberry and Orr.

Pitchers: Halladay, Lee, Oswalt, Hamels, Blanton, Madson, Contreras, Baez, Herndon, Kendrick, Romero and Bastardo.

Young is the guy who looked like he had a real chance but didn’t make the team. He started strong, but ended spring with a 258/303/389 line in 62 at-bats.

Rollins will bat third for the Phillies with Victorino hitting leadoff. Over the last two seasons, Rollins has hit 248/304/406 in 1,119 plate appearances.

Tuesday’s MRI “revealed a small tear in the posterior rotator cuff of Lidge’s right shoulder” and Lidge will be shut down for three to six weeks.

That doesn’t mean you should be looking for Lidge to pitch with the Phils in three to six weeks. It means he won’t be throwing at all for 3-6 weeks. This suggests we should be looking for him in the second half of the season.

This article from the Phillies web site says that Contreras is Manuel’s choice to start the year as closer. I’m going to be surprised if that works. I’m also going to be surprised if Madson doesn’t get some save chances early in the year.

Madson is the best pitcher in the bullpen for the Phillies. It would be a mistake not to have him pitching in the most important situations.

The Phils beat the Pirates 8-5 last night.

Oswalt got the start and didn’t pitch well, allowing five runs on five hits and four walks over five innings, giving him a 6.11 ERA and a 1.42 ratio in five starts this spring. He has also allowed four runs in 17 2/3 innings that were unearned. So he hasn’t pitched well.

Romero, Herndon, Bastardo and Madson combined to throw four scoreless innings after Oswalt left in which they allowed two hits and a walk. Herndon threw 1 2/3 innings in the game, but threw just 20 pitches.

Michael Stutes pitched the ninth. He struck out the first two batters he faced before walking Neil Walker, then struck Andrew McCutchen out swinging to end the game. In seven spring appearances he has an 0.82 ERA and an 0.55 ratio. He’s struck out 14 in 11 innings and opponents are hitting .108 against him. So he’s pitching well.

Francisco went 1-for-4 with his fifth spring home run. Castillo was 2-for-4 with a stolen base an RBI. He’s 6-for-23 (.261) with four walks since joining the Phils. I think he makes the team.

Mayberry 1-for-1 to up his line to 299/356/597 in 67 at-bats. Martinez 0-for-1, he’s hitting .239 and on-basing .257. Don’t let people go telling you he had a good spring (at least not with the bat). Young was 0-for-1 and is at 267/313/350. Orr started the game at third and went 1-for-3. He’s at 273/286/491 in 55 at-bats.

Polanco didn’t start the game. He says his elbow is still sore and expects to play today.

Hamels starts this afternoon in the final spring game for the Phils.

The Phillies have removed Matt Rizzotti from the 40-man roster to make room for, well, someone. Castillo is my guess.

Update: Will Jose Contreras be able to go back-to-back days for the Phils this year? No idea. But he sure was fantastic when he did it in 2010.

There were 19 games in which Contreras appeared in 2010 when he had pitched the previous day. Here are his numbers in those games:

Those numbers include the two times in which he threw three days in a row. Contreras pitched May 8, 9 and 10 and also on August 24, 25 and 26. On May 10 and August 26 combined, he threw two scoreless innings and allowed one hit.

On May 10 he pitched for the third day in a row in part because Lidge had a sore elbow. On August 26 he only threw five pitches in the game.

So if there’s no problem with the results, the thing you might want to worry about is how seldom it happened that the Phils called on Contreras to go three days in a row. By comparison, from August 14 to August 31 of 2010, the Phils called on Madson to pitch on August 14, 15, 17, 18, 20, 22, 23, 24, 27, 28, 29 and 31. That’s three days in a row twice in a seven-day period. He would also pitch on Septmember 6, 7 and 8. He was great, too. Between August 14 and Septmeber 8, Madson made 18 appearances for the Phils in which he threw to a 1.02 ERA and an 0.74 ratio while striking out 24 in 17 2/3 innings.