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Bruce Springsteen. Sort of.

The table below shows, for each of the past five years, the four pitchers who have gotten the most starts for the Phillies that season and their WAR for the year as calculated by Baseball-Reference:

Important to note is that the WAR for the pitcher includes all of his appearances for the season, not just his starts. So, for example, Kendrick made 37 appearances in 2012 and only 25 of them were starts. His WAR for the year was 1.3 and that includes all 37 appearances, not just the 25 starts.

Again, the Phillies went to the World Series in 2008 and again in 2009 and they did it without outstanding starting pitching. This message will repeat. Happ (in 2009) and Hamels (in 2008) were the only two pitchers, starter or relievers, to post a WAR for the season better than 2.5 in either year.

Led by Hamels and Halladay, the top four was a lot better in 2010. Halladay, Hamels and Lee all had superb years in 2011.

Halladay was, as you may have noticed, way off in 2012. Hamels wasn’t as good as he had been in 2011 or 2010. Lee wasn’t as good as he had been in 2011, but the top for of the rotation were still better than they been in 2009 and a lot better than they had been in 2008.

It’s easy for some of us (by which I mean me) to forget that Lee didn’t throw a pitch for the Phillies in 2010. They Phillies have only had two years where Halladay, Hamels and Lee comprised the core of the rotation. One of those years was great for the Phillies until they were bounced out of the playoffs in the first round. The other was 2012, which is best forgotten if at all possible.

Halladay came into 2012 having not put up a WAR worse than 5.9 since 2008 — in ’08 he was an All-Star, finished second in Cy Young voting in the AL (losing to Indian and 22-game winner Cliff Lee) and seventh in WAR for pitchers across both leagues. Last year his WAR was 0.7, which is the worst mark of his career since he threw to a 10.64 ERA as a 23-year-old with the Blue Jays in 2000.

Rollins won his fourth Gold Glove.

The Phillies picked up the $5 million option on Ruiz and declined the $5.5 million option on Polanco. They will pay Polanco a $1 million buyout. The same article suggests that free agent Juan Pierre is not likely to be back with the Phillies.

This article suggests that Worley will stay in Philadelphia to rehab his elbow coming off of surgery.

This article suggests the Phillies have $135.35 million committed to ten players for next season, including Lee ($25 million), Halladay ($20 million), Howard ($20 million), Hamels ($19.5 million), Utley ($15 million), Papelbon ($13 million), Rollins ($11 million), Ruiz ($5 million), Kyle Kendrick ($4.5 million) and Laynce Nix ($1.35 million).

That’s $40 million committed to Halladay and Howard. In 2012, Howard’s Baseball-Reference calculated WAR was -1.2 and Halladay’s was 0.7.

This article quotes Amaro suggesting that that center field will have to be addressed externally. The writer goes on to list possible candidates, including Bourn, Pagan, Upton, Victorino, Hamilton, Cabrera, Jacoby Ellsbury and Dexter Fowler.

This article looks at potential corner outfielders, including free agent Juan Pierre, Nick Swisher, Cody Ross, Torii Hunter, Ryan Ludwick, Jonny Gomes, Rual Ibanez, Ichiro Suzuki, Delmon Young, Josh Willingham and Alfonso Soriano.

Almost.

The combined WAR for Phillie pitchers as calculated by Baseball-Reference was 10.8 in 2012, way down from the NL-leading WARs the team posted in 2011 and 2010.

The Phillies had a long, long way to fall, though. In 2011, Baseball-Reference calculated the combined WAR for all Phillie pitchers at 35.2. That is enormously high. How high? Well, here is the list of all teams whose pitchers have posted a combined Baseball-Reference WAR of 30 or better since 1900:

Not a long list and the ’11 Phillies are at the top.

Looking back to the previous post, the Phillies led the NL in combined WAR for pitchers in 2010 (21.2) and again in 2011 (35.2). 2010 and 2011 are the only two years of the last ten in which the Phillie pitchers have been over 14.8.

The average for the team for the eight of the last ten years that were not 2010 or 2011 is about 8.8. The average for 2010 and 2011 was 28.2.

The point here is that the pitchers for the Phillies aren’t going to post a WAR of 35.2 again any time soon. Or ever. So the Phils are going to need to figure out another way to win (and hopefully one that involves Freddy Galvis never, ever being allowed near third base).

In 2011, Halladay posted a WAR of 8.5 and Cliff Lee put up an 8.3. By comparison, in 2012, there were four pitchers across both leagues with a WAR better than 5.8 — Verlander (7.6), Price (6.4), Harrison (6.2) and Kershaw (6.2).

So having two guys in your rotation at 8.3 or better is a big deal.

Here is the list of pitchers across both leagues who have posted a Baseball-Reference WAR of 8.3 or higher over the last ten years:

So that’s six seasons for pitchers with a WAR of 8.3 or better over the last ten years, three of which are Halladay or Lee (Halladay did it in 2010 and again in 2011). To compare, Cole Hamels is a great pitcher and has posted a WAR for a season once that was over 5.3 (6.2 in 2011). Roy Oswalt has finished in the top six in Cy Young voting six times, but has had a WAR for the season above 5.6 just twice (6.7 in 2002 and 6.4 in 2007).

So, again, the model for success going forward might have to a lot to do with good pitching, but it can’t rely on the pitching being as good as it was in 2011, because that is never going to happen again.

Looking for potential good news, there’s always the possibility that WAR, or at least WAR as calculated by Baseball-Reference, doesn’t matter at all. Sadly, I’m afraid it does, although it does seem worthwhile to point out enormous differences between the combined WAR for pitchers in 2011 as calculated by Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs. While Baseball-Reference’s calculation of WAR suggests the 2011 Phillies had one of the most dominant pitching staffs in the history of baseball, FanGraph’s calculation of WAR suggests they weren’t even the best pitching staff in 2011. FanGraphs has them second across both leagues at 27.1 and the White Sox first at 27.3.

David Herndon is now a Blue Jay after being claimed by Toronto.

Tyson Brummett was also claimed off of waivers by the Blue Jays last week, then designated for assignment so Toronto could make room for Herndon on their 40-man roster.

Michael Martinez has been removed from the 40-man roster and sent to Triple-A.

The 40-man roster is at 36 with three players (Stutes, Contreras and Schneider) on the 60-day DL.

Phillie pitching has had two spectacular years in the past ten seasons, but 2012 was not one of them.

The table below shows the total WAR for Phillie pitchers over the last ten years, as well as the team’s rank relative to the rest of the NL, as calculated by Baseball-Reference:

So things got worse in 2012. After two years of topping the NL in WAR for pitchers, the Phils dropped to ninth in 2012. After finishing ninth in the NL in combined WAR for pitchers, the Phillies have now been in the bottom half of the league in six of the last ten seasons. In one of the other four, 2009, they finished eighth, which just barely put them in the top half.

They had a long way to fall after being first in the category in 2011. Nobody else was close. Atlanta finished second at 16.4, less than half of the 35.2 posted by the Phils. The Phillie pitchers aren’t putting up a Baseball-Reference calculated WAR of 35.2 again in your lifetime, maybe not in anybody’s lifetime. More on that later.

The Phillies went to the World Series in 2008 and again in 2009 and they did it despite middle-of-the pack WARs from their pitchers. They had dominant pitching in 2010 and again in 2011, but wound up disappointing in the post-season.

The low point of the ten-year stretch was 2007, when the Phillie pitchers combined for a WAR of 3.3. The Phillies had 16 pitchers that season who posted a negative WAR. Adam Eaton was the lowlight, making 30 starts in which he threw to a 6.29 ERA and put up a career-worst WAR of -1.8.

Hamels (3.8) and Kendrick (2.1) were the only pitchers for the team to post a WAR of two or better in 2007. Hamels (4.0), Moyer (2.5) and Lidge (2.3) had good years in 2008 and things got better. Happ (4.0) and Blanton (2.4) were good in 2009. Halladay’s 8.3 WAR led the Phils to the top spot in the NL in ’10 — he was backed by Hamels (5.3) and Oswalt (3.2 in just 12 starts).

In 2011, the combined WAR for Phillie pitchers topped out at 35.2. It’s not going back there, not next year, and, again, probably not ever. Fantastic seasons for Halladay (8.5), Lee (8.3) and Hamels (6.2) topped the group, but the Phillies also got contributions from Worley (3.2), Madson (2.0) and Oswalt (2.0).

It fell off a cliff in 2012 as the Phils dropped back to ninth in the league. Halladay, Lee and Hamels, whose combined 2011 WAR was 23, combined for a WAR of 9.1 (Lee 4.2, Hamels 4.2 and Halladay 0.7). After having just three negative WAR pitchers in 2011, the Phils had 11 in 2012.

Finally, the rank of the combined WAR (9) for all their pitchers was about the same in 2012 for the Phillies as it was in 2008 (9) and 2009 (8). The Phils went to the World Series in each of those seasons. Big difference between those teams and the 2012 Phils is that the offense was not great in 2012 and much better in ’08 and ’09. The Phils were eighth in the NL in runs scored in 2012. They tied for second in ’08 and led the league in runs scored in 2009.

The Phillies went 45-57 in their first 102 games this year before trading two of their better hitters and replacing them with lesser offensive players. After they did, the team took off, going 21-14 in their 35 games since the deals sent Victorino and Pence packing.

So what’s going on?

What’s going on is that since the Phillies traded Victorino and Pence, the offense has gotten worse. Just like you would expect. But. The pitching has gotten enormously better. Enough better to offset the offensive dropoff and carry the team.

Here’s a look at some of the numbers since the Phillies traded Victorino and Pence:

The Phillies scored 4.20 runs per game before they traded Victorino and Pence. In the games they’ve played since they traded them, they’ve scored 4.09 runs per game.

The Phillies were 12th in the NL in runs scored in August and went 17-12. They went 17-12 not because they were a good offensive team, but because they were fourth in the league in runs allowed.

In the games that the Phillies played before trading Victorino and Pence, they allowed an average of 4.56 runs per game. Since they traded that duo, they’ve cut more than a run off of that. They’ve allowed 3.51 runs per game in the 35 games they’ve played since Victorino and Pence left. Going into today’s games, the Nationals were the NL team that had allowed the fewest runs per game in 2012 with 3.56 per game.

So 3.51 per game is impressive.

The bullpen has been better over the past 35 games than they were over the first 102, dropping more than half a run off of their ERA while their ratio has plummeted. Remember that they were terrible for a long time there, though, and the 4.08 ERA they’ve thrown to in the last 35 games isn’t exactly fantastic. If the Phillie bullpen had thrown to a 4.08 ERA for the entire year, that would be eleventh-best in the NL. As it is, their 4.42 bullpen ERA overall is twelfth-best.

The improvement in preventing runs has a lot more to do with the starting pitching than it does the relievers. Two points on what the relievers have done over the past 35 games, though, as they have thrown to a very impressive 1.14 ratio:

• Over the last 35 games, the relievers have allowed just 59 hits in 86 innings. That’s an amazingly low hit rate of 6.17 hits per nine innings. Going into today’s games, Cincinnati’s bullpen had the lowest rate of hits allowed per nine innings for the season in the league at 7.27.
• They have walked a ton of hitters in the same 35 games — 39 in 86 innings. That’s a walk rate of 4.08 per nine innings. Going into today’s games, only three NL teams had seen their relievers walk more than four batters per nine. The Dodgers had walked 4.07 per nine, the Brewers 4.18 and the Cubs 4.56 (Chicago relievers had walked 201 hitters in 396 2/3 innings). Here’s the list of Phillie relievers with a walk rate of 4.19 per nine or worse for the season: Schwimer, Sanches, Horst, Aumont, Bastardo, Stutes, Diekman, Rosenberg, Lindblom, De Fratus. Those ten pitchers have combined to throw 165 1/3 innings for the Phillies this year in which they have allowed 96 walks. That’s a walk rate of 5.23 per nine.

Again, the improvement overall in preventing runs has a lot more to do with what the starters have done than what the relievers have. The starters throw more than 70% of the innings for one thing, so even if the improvement of each of the groups had been about the same, the impact of the improvement by the starters would be much greater.

But the starters have improved more in the past 35 games than the relievers.

Here’s a look at what the guys in the rotation did before and after the trades of Victorino and Pence:

Over the first 102 games of the season, Hamels was the only pitcher on the team who started at least one game for the Phillies and threw to an ERA under 3.88. Over the last 35 games, the rotation as a group has thrown to a 3.02 ERA.

Worley hasn’t been good in his six starts since the Phillies traded away Victorino and Pence. In the 29 starts not made by Worley since the trades, though, the rotation has a 2.67 ERA with a 1.05 ratio — every one of the five guys who has started at least one of those games has been very good. That group includes Halladay, Hamels, Lee and, more surprisingly, Kendrick and Cloyd.

The Phillies are going to win a huge percentage of their games in which their starters throw to the 3.02 ERA and a 1.15 ratio like they have since the trade. The Nationals have the best rotation in the NL in 2012 — they’ve thrown to 3.25 ERA for the year with a 1.17 ratio. In 2011, you may remember, the Phillies won 102 games behind a fantastic starting rotation. That group led the league with a 2.86 ERA and a 1.11 ratio. Nobody else was close — the Giant rotation had the second-best starter ERA for the year at 3.28.

Almost a year ago today, I wrote a post that looked at the record for the Phillies in games where the starters and bullpen pitched well and didn’t pitch well. For the purposes of that post, I counting appearances by starters and relievers as good outings if the starter or the combined relievers posted both an ERA under 4.00 and a ratio under 1.30 for that game.

Using those criteria, the table below shows how the numbers for 2012 compare to the numbers for 2011. In 2011, the Phillies played 91 games before the All-Star break, going 57-34.

Looking first at the starting pitchers, the rotation has pitched well in a lower percentage of games (47.1% in 2012 compared to 60.4% in 2011) and the Phillies have been less likely to win when they do pitch well.

In all of 2011, the Phillies got a quality start in two-thirds of their games and went 83-25 in the games where they got a quality start. That’s a .769 winning percentage. The 2012 Phillies are on pace to make 95 quality starts for the year, 13 fewer than in 2011, and have gone just 30-21 (.588) in the games in which they got a quality start. That’s fewer quality starts and much worse results when they come.

The 2012 Phillies have just three complete games. Halladay, Lee and Hamels have combined to throw zero. Blanton has two and Kendrick has one. They’re on pace to throw about 5.5 for the year after throwing 18 complete games in 2011.

The bullpen has pitched well in a lower percentage of games in 2012 than it did in 2011 and pitched poorly in a higher percentage. The winning percentage for the Phillies is worse for the team both when the pen pitches well and when it doesn’t pitch well.

Pretty tough to win in the games when both the starters and the pen don’t pitch well. In both years the team had a winning percentage under .200. The pen and the starters have both been bad in nearly 30% of the games the Phils have played this season. After 91 games last year, the percentage of games where both were bad was just 17.6%.

At the break in 2011, the Phillies were 20-1 in games when both their starters and pen pitched well. They are just 12-4 this year.

The last two lines of the table might be the most telling. The 2011 Phillies still got a whole lot of wins in the games where either the starter or pen was good but the other was not. If you combine the last two lines, the Phillies are 18-25 (.419) in 2012 in games where either the starters or the relievers didn’t pitch well. In 2011 they were 35-19 (.648) in games where one or the other didn’t pitch well.

The NL won the All-Star Game 8-0. Hamels threw a scoreless inning, Papelbon got the only batter he faced and Ruiz went 0-for-1.

The biggest problem with the Phillies these days is not their awful defense or even that nobody, and by nobody I mean Victorino, Wigginton, Polanco, Rollins, Mayberry and Galvis all have at least 170 plate appearances for the year and an on-base percentage under .320, can get on base. It’s that the team is built on pitching and the pitching is terrible.

During April, the Phils were fourth in the NL in runs allowed. In May that dropped to 12th. So far in June they are 14th — only two teams, the Rockies and the Astros, have allowed more runs in June than the Phillies.

Here’s a look at the final numbers for the 2011 Phillie pitchers and the pace for the current staff:

The Phillies are on pace to allow 708 runs over 162 games. That’s 179 more than the 529 they allowed in 2011. The rate at which they have allowed unearned runs has nearly doubled from 2011. After allowing 34 unearned runs in 2011, they have already allowed 26 so far in 2012 and are on pace to allow 62 for the season.

So the defense is hurting the Phils a lot more than it did in 2011. But the Phillies are also on pace to allow 151 more earned runs than they did last year.

The Phillies are striking batters out at a higher rate in 2012 and allowing fewer walks. That leaves hits.

So far in 2012, opponents have hit 259/309/426 against the Phillies. In 2011 they hit 240/296/361.

Here are the percentage of batters that have gotten a hit, walk, strikeout, extra-base hit or home run against the Phillies this year and in 2011:

Again, more hits, including extra-base hits and home runs, but fewer walks and more strikeouts.

So far in 2012, opponents are hitting .259 against the Phils and slugging .426. That’s an isolated power of .167. In 2011, opponents hit .240 and slugged .361 against the Phillies. That’s an isolated power of .121. So far in 2012, the average hit surrendered by the Phils has gone for 1.64 bases. In 2011, the average hit went for 1.50 bases.

So not only are the Phillies allowing more hits overall, but the hits they are allowing are worse. The Phillies are currently on a pace to throw about 21 fewer innings than they did in 2011, but to allow 53 more doubles, 11 more triples and 61 more home runs.

The Phillies allowed 120 home runs in 2011. So far in 2012 they have allowed 76, putting them on pace to allow 181.

Against right-handed hitters, the Phillies have allowed more hits in 2012 than they did in 2011, but, more importantly, the hits they have allowed have been much worse. Righties are hitting just .248 against the Phillies after hitting .238 against them in 2011, but slugging .425 (isolated power of .177) after slugging .357 against them in 2011 (.119).

Lefties are also hitting for more power against the Phils in 2012, but the increase is not as dramatic. They are getting a lot more hits, though. Lefties are hitting .274 against the Phils in 2012 with an isolated power of .152 after hitting .243 against them in 2011 with an isolated power of .125.

Here’s how the percentages of hits, walks, strikeouts, extra-base hits and home run for 2011 and 2012 look broken down by what lefties and righties have done against the Phils:

So, again, the hits overall against lefties are up more, but extra-base hits and home runs are up more against righties.

Carlos Ruiz still way behind Molina and Posey in All-Star voting. Votechooch.com has the latest numbers and voting links.