pitching

Hopefully there’s a third site out there somewhere that thinks they won it all last year

I’ll keep looking.

The last post looked at the Baseball-Reference calculated WAR for the top two Phillie pitchers in recent years relative to the accumulated WAR for all pitchers on the team. In this post I’ve done the same using WAR data calculated by FanGraphs and the results are even less impressive. Using the FanGraphs data, you have to go back more than twenty years to find a year in which 1) the percentage of the WAR generated by the top two Phillie pitchers relative to the total WAR generated by all the team’s pitchers was as high as it was in 2013 or 2) the combined WAR for all Phillie pitchers other than the top two was as low as it was in 2013. Both of those things last happened in 1992.

The data on the top two pitchers by WAR and the combined WAR for the others on that year’s staff are below. There’s a good chance it includes names you haven’t thought about in the context of leading the Phillie pitching staff in WAR for a long time, probably ever, including Cory Lidle, Kevin Millwood, Randy Wolf, Vicente Padilla, Robert Person, Curt Schilling, Carlton Loewer, Mark Portugal, Mark Leiter, Sid Fernandez, Danny Jackson, Heathcliff Slocumb, Tommy Greene and Terry Mulholland.

Year Top 2 fWAR P Total P fWAR fWAR top 2 Top 2 % other P
’13 Lee (5.1), Hamels (4.2) 10.5 9.3 89 1.2
’12 Lee (4.9), Hamels (4.5) 19.0 9.4 49 9.6
’11 Halladay (8.1), Lee (6.5) 26.2 14.6 56 11.6
’10 Halladay (6.1), Hamels (3.5) 16.2 9.6 59 6.6
’09 Hamels (3.6), Lee (2.3) 11.5 5.9 51 5.6
’08 Hamels (4.3), Moyer (2.5) 14.1 6.8 48 7.3
’07 Hamels (3.7), Moyer (1.8) 8.2 5.5 67 2.7
’06 Myers (3.3), Hamels (2.4) 12.1 5.7 47 6.4
’05 Lidle (3.3), Myers (3.1) 13.9 6.4 46 7.5
’04 Millwood (2.6), Wolf (1.5) 11.0 4.1 37 6.9
’03 Millwood (4.5), Padilla (2.5) 15.5 7.0 45 8.5
’02 Wolf (3.7), Padilla (3.3) 11.3 7.0 62 4.3
’01 Wolf (3.3), Person (1.6) 12.6 4.9 39 7.7
’00 Person (3.4), Wolf (2.9) 10.6 6.3 59 4.3
’99 Schilling (3.4), Loewer (1.6) 8.5 5.0 59 3.5
’98 Schilling (8.3), Portugal (1.5) 12.2 9.8 80 2.4
’97 Schilling (8.4), M Leiter (2.0) 13.3 10.4 78 2.9
’96 Schilling (4.7), S Fernandez (1.7) 14.3 6.4 45 7.9
’95 Schilling (2.8), Quantrill (2.2) 11.4 5.0 44 6.4
’94 D Jackson (3.9), Slocumb (1.6) 10.6 5.5 52 5.1
’93 Greene (5.0), Schilling (4.9) 20.4 9.9 49 10.5
’92 Schilling (4.3), Mulholland (4.0) 8.4 8.3 99 0.1

From 1993 to 2012, the pitchers on the Phillies other than the two pitchers with the best fWAR for the team that season averaged about 6.4 fWAR. The combined fWAR of the top two pitchers on the team average about 7.3, which was an average of about 54% of the total fWAR for pitchers on the team.

Just about the only good news on the table above for the ’13 Phillies is that, relative to their own results over the last 22 years, the production of their two best pitchers is still very good. The 9.3 mark for Lee and Hamels combined in 2013 is topped in just six of the 21 years previous to ’13 — each of the last three years, two years in the late 90′s when Schilling was fantastic and 1993 when Schilling and Tommy Greene were both good.

The Schilling-led staffs of ’97 and ’98 came close, both in terms of percentage of total WAR by the top two and combined WAR for everyone other than the top two, but they didn’t get to 2013 levels in either category. That last happened in 1992.

The ’92 Phillies were miserable, going 70-92 to finish sixth in the six-team NL East. They had a fantastic offense that scored 686 runs, which was second-best in the NL that year. The pitching was terrible, allowing 717 runs in a season in which the second-worst team at preventing runs in the league, the Astros, allowed 668. Schilling, Mulholland and Ben Rivera were just about the only positives on the staff for the Phils that season.

If it makes you feel any better, you may remember that the 1993 Phils turned things around. Led by Lenny Dykstra, Darren Daulton, John Kruk and Dave Hollins, they continued to pound the ball offensively, leading the NL with 5.41 runs scored per game in a year in which teams averaged 4.49. On the pitching side, Schilling and Mulholland again pitched well and got a lot of help from Danny Jackson, Larry Anderson and Tommy Greene. They were far from great at preventing runs, but did improve to eighth-best in the 14-team NL in ’93. The combination of great hitting and middle of the pack pitching proved to be enough to top the Braves in a six-game NLCS before dropping the World Series against the Blue Jays in six. The pitching didn’t exactly excel in the World Series that year as the Phils failed to hold a 14-9 lead going into the eighth inning in game four and a 6-5 lead going into the ninth inning of game six.

The Phillies signed outfielders Tony Gwynn Jr and Dave Sappelt to minor league contracts with invites to spring training. The 31-year-old Gwynn struggles with the bat and spent 2013 in the minors, but put up bWARs in the 2.2 to 2.9 range from 2009 to 2011 thanks in large part to solid defense in center field. In 2011, Gwynn played a lot more left than center for the Dodgers, but was very good defensively in left as well. Ben Revere‘s bWAR in 2013 was 0.8. Sappelt’s offensive numbers are also offensive, but again with good defensive numbers, primarily at the corner positions in limited time. Playing Tony Gwynn Jr in center is a much, much better idea than playing John Mayberry or Cesar Hernandez in center, especially if Gwynn can still produce defensively at the position. The problem with that is that the last time anyone gave him significant innings in center was 2012 and, at least according to UZR/150 as calculated by FanGraphs, his defense was way down. Whether Gwynn is part of the answer or not, Hernandez and Mayberry combined to start 68 games in center field for the Phillies in 2013, which is something the team might want to try not doing again for the rest of recorded time. Forty appearances for Frandsen at first should probably go on that list as well.

The Phils also signed catcher Lou Marson to a minor league deal and invited him to spring training. He’s 27 now and has hit .219 in 882 major league plate appearances. He hit 314/433/416 in 395 plate appearances for Double-A Reading in 2008 before being traded to Cleveland in the deal that brought Cliff Lee to Philadelphia for the first time.

They also designated Sebastian Valle for assignment in order to make room for Roberto Hernandez on the 40-man roster. Wasn’t expecting that one. Valle hit 203/245/359 in 379 plate appearances at Reading in 2013.


Deep impact

In 2013, the total WAR for Phillie pitchers as calculated by Baseball-Reference was 14.2. As I’ve pointed out before, the Phils had two elite pitchers in ’13 in Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee and that duo was backed by a slew of non-eliters. Hamels and Lee combined for 11.9 WAR, which is about 84% of the total WAR generated by Phillie pitchers. The 25 Phillie pitchers other than Hamels and Lee combined to generate 2.3 bWAR.

If you look back at recent years using the Baseball-Reference WAR data, these two things are true: 1) In 2013, the total WAR as that was generated by pitchers other than the top two was the worst it’s been since 2007 and 2) the percentage of the team’s total WAR for pitchers that was generated by the top two pitchers was the highest it has been since 2007.

Both of those things are bad. It’s nifty that Hamels and Lee are very good. They’re likely to continue being very good. But the Phillies are going to need a lot more from the other 25 guys pitching for the team before they’re going to be good again. Either that or improve their position players by a whole lot, but they’re more than a tweak away on that front as well.

Here’s a look at the two top pitchers for the Phillies by bWAR over the past seven years, the total WAR for the team’s pitchers that year, the combined WAR for the top two pitchers, the percentage of the team’s total WAR for pitchers the top two accounted for and the total WAR generated by all pitchers other than the top two.

Year Top 2 bWAR P Total P bWAR bWAR top 2 Top 2 % other P
’13 Lee (7.3), Hamels (4.6) 14.2 11.9 84 2.3
’12 Hamels (4.6), Lee (4.5) 13.0 9.1 70 3.9
’11 Halladay (8.9), Lee (8.6) 37.2 17.5 47 19.7
’10 Halladay (8.3), Hamels (5.4) 21.8 13.7 63 8.1
’09 Happ (4.2), Blanton (2.6) 11.8 8.8 75 3.0
’08 Hamels (4.3), Moyer (2.8) 13.2 7.1 54 6.1
’07 Hamels (4.1), Kendrick (2.2) 4.8 6.3 131 -1.5

In 2013, the WAR accumulated by the two best pitchers on the team was good relative to other recent years. It wasn’t 2011, but 2011 is never going to happen again. The Phillies aren’t likely to see their pitchers combine to throw to a WAR of 30 or better in any season in the next fifty years, much less 37.2.

It was everyone else who was terrible — as bad as the non-top two had been since 2007. In 2007, the Phils were the best hitting team in the NL by a wide margin, but everyone on the team other than Hamels and Kyle Kendrick combined to pitch to a WAR of -1.5. Adam Eaton made 30 starts with a 6.51 ERA and a 1.63 ratio. Antonio Alfonseca, Geoff Geary and Jose Mesa combined to make 158 appearances in relief in which they threw to a 5.02 ERA in 156 innings. The Phillies used 18 different pitchers who ended the season with an ERA over 5.00.

So it wasn’t good. 2013 wasn’t as bad as that for the Phils, but it wasn’t good and it wasn’t a move in the right direction. The Phillies are counting on Lee and Hamels to be good. The good news is that it’s going to happen. The bad news is it isn’t enough.

Finally, looking at 2008 numbers, I feel compelled to point out yet again that years from now there are going to be people who fondly remember the 2008 season and how Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay led a dominant Phillie pitching staff to World Series glory. That didn’t happen. Halladay and Lee weren’t on the team. Les Walrond was on the team. RJ Swindle was on the team. Halladay and Lee were not. The pitching wasn’t dominant. Hamels was very good, Moyer was good and the Brad Lidge-led bullpen was very good. Chase Utley was great. Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, Jayson Werth, Pat Burrell and Ryan Howard were all good. Howard hit 48 home runs and nearly won the MVP, finishing second behind Albert Pujols, despite having the sixth-best WAR for non-pitchers on his team. Utley had a bWAR of 9.0 and finished tied for 14th in the NL MVP voting. You can look it up.


Rate hike

Questions yesterday about whether opposing hitters were more likely to walk in 2013 when Carlos Ruiz was catching for the Phils. That part’s easy — the answer is yes, they were. The harder part is how important that information is and I’m a lot less sure about that. In order to conclude anything, we’d need to look at more complete information about who was doing the pitching, the game situation and the quality of the hitters they were facing.

Still, the overall results were a little surprising to me. The Phillies used five catchers in 2013: Ruiz, Erik Kratz, Humberto Quintero, Cameron Rupp and Steven Lerud. Here’s the total number of plate appearances each caught and the team’s walk rate with them catching:

BF % of BF BB %
All PHI 6213 100 8.1
Ruiz 3251 52.3 9.0
Kratz 2060 33.2 7.5
Quintero 718 11.6 6.4
Rupp 116 1.9 6.0
Lerud 68 1.1 7.4
Not Ruiz 2962 47.7 7.2

So Ruiz caught 52.3% of the batters and during those plate appearances, Phillie opponents walked 9.0% of the time. The other four catchers caught 47.7% of the time and in those chances opponents walked in 7.2% of their plate appearances.

Here’s the breakdown for the three catchers other than Rupp and Lerud for the eight starting pitchers on the ’13 Phils that got at least eight starts.

Pitcher BF Ruiz Kratz Quintero
Hamels 905 61.8/5.9 26.4/5.9 11.8/2.8
Lee 876 55.0/4.1 39.2/3.2 5.8/2.0
Kendrick 800 38.8/4.2 55.1/6.8 6.1/8.2
Pettibone 437 52.6/10.0 21.3/7.5 26.1/7.0
Lannan 332 57.5/10.5 10.8/5.6 31.6/5.4
Cloyd 282 33.9/11.6 50.7/7.7 -
Halladay 282 50.0/16.3 15.2/11.6 34.8/8.2
Martin 190 66.8/15.7 24.7/10.6 -

So, looking, for example, at the top line, Ruiz caught 61.8% of the batters that Hamels pitched to in 2013 and those batters walked in 5.9% of their plate appearances. Quintero caught 11.8% of the batters Hamels faced in 2013 and those batters walked in 2.8% of their PA.

Cloyd and Martin both pitched to Lerud and Rupp. Those numbers aren’t included above.

Of the eight pitchers listed above, six of them pitched to all three of Ruiz, Kratz and Quintero. Of those six, five, everyone except for Kendrick, issued walks at the highest rate while pitching to Ruiz and the at the lowest rate when pitching to Quintero (for Hamels, the 5.9% to Ruiz is a little higher, 5.903, than his 5.9% to Kratz, which is 5.858).

The other of the six that pitched to all three was Kendrick. He walked batters at his lowest rate while pitching to Ruiz and at his highest while pitching to Quintero. It should be noted that Kendrick’s time pitching to Quintero was especially limited. Quintero was behind the plate for just 49 of the 800 batters that Kendrick faced (6.1%).

The other two pitchers on the list, Cloyd and Martin, didn’t pitch to Quintero, but each of them walked batters at a higher rate while pitching to Ruiz than they did to Kratz.

I think it’s hugely important to remember there are a lot of factors at play. For example, Roy Halladay and Ethan Martin each had very high walk rates for the season, regardless of who was catching them. Ruiz caught more than two-thirds of Martin’s innings and half of Halladay’s, which surely contributed to his walk rate being high relative to other catchers on the team. While the rate that each of those guys allowed walks was higher with Ruiz behind the plate, I still think it’s a leap to attribute much of anything to Ruiz without more complete information about the game situation and the quality of hitters the pitchers were facing.

If you look back at the last few years, it’s also not true to say that batters consistently walk more with Ruiz behind the plate than with someone else catching. It was in 2012, 7.1% for Ruiz and 6.2% for everyone else on the Phils, but in 2011 he was way under the walk rate with others catching (6.4% for Ruiz and 7.2% for everyone else). In both 2009 and 2010, the walk rate for hitters with Ruiz behind the plate was just about the same as the walk rate with anyone else behind the plate (6.8/6.9 in ’10 and 7.9/7.7 in ’09).


One direction

Still on walks and how far Phillie pitchers fell in 2013 coming off of four straight years in which they were either the best or second-best team in the league at preventing walks.

Here’s the percentage of batters Phillie pitchers walked in each of the last five seasons and the rank of that percentage relative to the rest of the NL:

2013 2012 2011 2010 2009
All PHI 8.1 (9) 6.7 (1) 6.7 (1) 6.8 (1) 7.8 (2)
NL Avg 7.8 8.0 8.2 8.6 9.1

From 2009 to 2011, the percentage of batters that Phillie pitchers walked was best in the NL three times and second-best the other. In 2013, the NL shrunk from 16 teams to 15 and the 8.1% of batters faced by the Phils was ninth-best in the league.

Looking at the numbers above, the year of the five in which the Phils were most dominant in preventing walks relative to the rest of the NL was 2010. That year they walked 6.8% of the batters they faced in a year in which the average NL pitcher walked 8.6% of the batters they faced. The Phillies still had the best rate of preventing walks in each of the next two seasons, but not as dramatically as they had in 2010.

Over the last five seasons, the year in which the Phillies issued their lowest number of total walks was 2011. They walked 404 that year. In 2013, they walked, 506, 102 more than they had in 2011. 506 is about 125% of 404.

Here’s their numbers for percentage of batters walked by their starters in each of those years along with the same number for all NL starting pitchers:

2013 2012 2011 2010 2009
PHI SP 6.8 5.4 5.1 5.6 6.5
NL Avg SP 7.4 7.4 7.5 8.0 8.3

In each of the five years, including 2013, the rate at which the Phillie starting pitchers walked batters was better than the NL average.

Notably also is that the percentage of batters walked for starting pitchers has trended down over the past three seasons. The Phillie starters walked a similar percentage of batters in 2009 and 2013, 6.5% in ’09 and 6.8% in ’13, but this was much more impressive in 2009 as the overall rate of walks issued by starters in the league was much higher.

Unlike the starters, the relievers have walked a higher percentage of batters than league average in recent years:

2013 2012 2011 2010 2009
PHI RP 10.8 9.9 10.5 9.7 10.4
NL Avg RP 8.7 9.4 9.5 9.7 10.5

As with the starters, percentages of batters walked for the relievers are down in recent years in the NL. In each year 2010 through 2013, NL relievers combined to walk a lower percentage of batters in the season than they had the year before. Not so for the Phillies. In 2013, Phillie relievers walked 10.8% of the batters they faced, the highest mark for any of the five years, while the league average for relievers was 8.7%, the lowest mark of any of the five years for the league.

The 10.8% of batters that the Phillie relievers walked in 2013 is miserable — the worst mark for any NL bullpen for the season. Only one other team, the Cubs, saw their relievers walk more than 9.4% of the batters they faced. The Chicago bullpen walked about 10.2% of the batters they faced in 2013.

Over the last five years, the starters have been very good at preventing walks and the relievers haven’t. In 2013, the starters were close to league average at preventing walks and the relievers were hideous. From 2009 through 2012, the Phils starters were way better than league average at preventing walks while in 2013 they were just a little better. The relievers, on the the other hand, have been average or worse than average in each of the last five years and got a lot worse at preventing walks in 2013 than they had been in any of the past four seasons.

Halladay, Hamels and Lee have obviously been a huge part of that. In 2013, Halladay’s turn from a guy who pitched a ton of innings with a tiny walk rate to someone who walked many clearly hurt the team. Looking back at the last five years, I don’t think we want to forget Blanton or Moyer, either. In 2012, Blanton threw 133 1/3 innings for the Phils and walked just 18, giving him a rate of preventing walks for the year that was better than Halladay, Hamels or Lee. In 2010, Moyer walked just 4.4% of the batters he faced in his 111 2/3 innings, a rate just higher than the 3.0% of the hitters Halladay walked and way below the league average of 8.6%.

In 2013, the results were pretty ugly. The Phillies used 27 pitchers for the year. Here’s the list of players who threw a pitch for the Phils last year who walked a percentage of batters lower than the NL average:

IP BB%
Kyle Kendrick
Cole Hamels
Raul Valdes
Jonathan Papelbon
Cliff Lee
John McDonald
182
220
35
61.7
222.7
0.3
5.9
5.5
5.3
4.3
3.7
0.0

Six players for the team with a walk rate better than league average by percentage of batters faced walked.

One of the six is non-pitcher John McDonald, who didn’t walk any of the three hitters he faced for the year.

Another, Raul Valdes, had a miserable year in which he threw to a 7.46 ERA, allowing seven home runs in his 35 innings while opponents hit .300 against him.

Kyle Kendrick dropped his walk rate below his career average. That’s the good news. The bad news is that he allowed way more hits than he had over the two previous years and righties posted a 318/359/453 line against him.

Twenty-one of 27 pitchers from 2013 walked a higher percentage of batters than the league average. Here they are:

IP BB%
Casper Wells
Luis Garcia
Phillippe Aumont
Ethan Martin
Cesar Jimenez
J.C. Ramirez
Roy Halladay
Zach Miner
Joe Savery
Justin De Fratus
Mauricio Robles
Antonio Bastardo
Chad Durbin
Michael Stutes
B.J. Rosenberg
Mike Adams
Jake Diekman
Jeremy Horst
Tyler Cloyd
Jonathan Pettibone
John Lannan
0.7
31.3
19.3
40
17
24
62
28.7
20
46.7
4.7
42.7
16
17.7
19.7
25
38.3
26
60.3
100.3
74.3
37.5
16.7
13.7
13.7
13.2
12.9
12.8
12.8
12.8
12.0
12.0
11.7
11.1
10.7
10.5
10.3
9.8
9.8
8.9
8.7
8.1

A couple of those guys, especially Antonio Bastardo and Jake Diekman, pitched a bunch of innings for the Phils and were good despite a higher than average walk rate. I think it’s safe to say they were the exception rather than the rule.

Roman Quinn, the 20-year-old shortstop prospect, has ruptured his right Achilles tendon and is out indefinitely.

This suggests the Rockies have interest in signing Ruiz.


Walking all

This post from January, 2011, pointed out that during the 2010 season the Phillies walked just 416 batters, which was the fewest walks issued by any National League team. Not only was it the best mark in the NL that year, it was also the fewest number of walks issued by an NL pitching staff since Expos walked 401 in 1995.

The Phils followed 2010 up with two seasons in which their pitchers walked fewer batters than they had in 2010. They walked 416 in 2010, 404 in 2011 and 409 in 2012.

Today’s point is that those days are gone — if not forever, for a long time. The Phillies didn’t lead the league in fewest walks allowed in 2013 and didn’t come close. Here’s how they’ve ranked in fewest walks issued in the NL over the past five seasons:

Year NL Rank fewest BB
2009 2
2010 1
2011 1
2012 1
2013 9

Coming off of three straight years in which they were the best team in the NL at preventing walks, the Phils walked 506 batters in 2013 in a season when the average NL team walked 481. Only one NL team, the Rockies, pitched fewer innings than the Phillies for the year and Colorado only pitched a third of an inning less than the Phils. The 8.14% of batters that the ’13 Phillie pitchers walked was ninth-best and the 3.17 walks per nine they issued was tenth-best.

Forced to guess, I think I would have likely concluded that the combination of the huge number of innings pitched by Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee from 2009-2012 and their low walk rates carried the Phils to league-best marks in the category. That’s wrong, though, or at least incomplete. A look at the numbers will show that the walk rate for the Phillies other than Halladay, Hamels and Lee has increased significantly.

For example, this post from February, 2011, suggested that while Halladay had a lot to do with the success in 2010 at preventing walks, he wasn’t the only factor. During 2010, Halladay threw 250 2/3 innings for the Phils and walked just 30. However, as impressive as Halladay was at preventing walks, the team’s success in this area wasn’t just about one guy or one performance. If you removed Halladay’s performance from the 2010 numbers, the other Phillie pitchers still issued walks at a lower rate than the Cardinals, the second-best team in the NL at preventing walks in 2010.

That works if you add Hamels, too. In 2010, Lee didn’t pitch for the Phillies, but Halladay and Hamels did. The pitchers on the team other than Halladay and Hamels combined to walk 325 hitters in 997 innings, which is about 2.93 batters per nine innings. That was still, without Halladay, Hamels or Lee (who wasn’t on the team) the best rate of preventing walks in the NL that year. St Louis was second behind the Phils at 2.95. In 2013, the pitchers other than Halladay, Hamels and Lee on the Phillies combined to walk 388 hitters in 931 2/3 innings, which is about 3.75 batters per nine. That rate is worse than the overall rate for any 2013 NL team. By a lot. The Cubs had the worst rate of allowing walks in 2013 — they walked about 3.36 batters per nine innings in 2013.

So, again, in 2010, the Phillie pitchers other than Halladay, Hamels and Lee were better than any other NL team at preventing walks, but by 2013 the Phillie pitchers other than Halladay, Hamels and Lee were worse than any other NL team at preventing walks.

This article points out that the Phillies were miserable at preventing walks in the minors this year, too, and suggests that not walking everyone will be a focus next year.


Just how much rain is it reasonable to pray for?

In 2013, the Phillie offense was bad and the pitching was worse. Among the pitchers, though, who were worse, the starters or the relievers? Both were really bad, but I think the answer is the relievers were worse relative to the rest of the league, even if the starters did more damage by throwing more innings.

The Phillies were 14th in the NL in both ERA for their starters and ERA for their relievers:

ERA NL Rank NL Avg
PHI SP 4.41 14 3.86
PHI RP 4.19 14 3.50

Just by ERA, the ERA for the team’s relief pitchers overall was about 1.20 times the NL average and the ERA for the team’s starters was about 1.14 times the NL average.

It’s worse for the pen if you look at the runs they allowed per inning rather than the ERA:

RA per IP NL Rank NL Avg
PHI SP .523 14 .465
PHI RP .518 15 .419

The Phils were better than the Rockies in runs allowed per inning pitched for their starters and better than nobody in their runs allowed per innings pitched for their relievers. Their starters and relievers allowed runs per inning at almost the same rate while the gap for the league was larger — relievers were much more effective at preventing runs. The .523 runs allowed per inning that the starters for the Phils allowed in 2013 was about 1.125 times the .465 runs per inning mark for NL starters for the year. The .518 runs allowed per inning for the relievers was much worse, about 1.236 times the NL average of .419 runs allowed per inning.

None of this means the starters were good. They really, really weren’t. I mentioned in the last post that Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels were great in 2013. Here’s what everyone else on the team did in 98 starts in ’13 not made by Lee or Hamels:

Pitcher GS IP ERA Ratio
Kendrick 30 182 4.70 1.40
Pettibone 18 100.3 4.04 1.47
Lannan 14 74.3 5.33 1.52
Halladay 13 62 6.82 1.47
Cloyd 11 54.3 6.96 1.80
Martin 8 33 6.55 1.79
Miner 3 9.3 5.79 2.14
Valdes 1 3.7 22.09 3.27
Group Total 98 519 5.41 1.53
NL Average SP - - 3.86 1.28

So in a year in which the average NL pitcher threw to a 3.86 ERA and a 1.28 ratio, the Phillie starters other than Hamels and Lee combined to make 98 starts in which they threw to a 5.41 ERA and a 1.53 ratio. Jonathan Pettibone led the group with a 4.04 ERA and Kyle Kendrick with a 1.40 ratio. That group combined to allow 10.35 hits per nine innings in a season in which the average NL starter allowed about 8.73 hits per nine innings. Roy Halladay is the only one of the eight that allowed less than a hit per inning in 2013 — you may remember he had some troubles with walks and home runs last year (he actually allowed hits at a rate below his career average while his rates of allowing walks and home runs were both more than twice his career average).

In 2013, the average NL reliever threw to a 3.50 ERA and a 1.28 ratio. The Phillies used 21 relief pitchers in 2013. Here’s the list of Phillie relievers in 2013 who had both an ERA of 3.50 or better and an ERA of 1.28 or better:

Pitcher IP ERA Ratio
Papelbon 61.7 2.92 1.14
Bastardo 42.7 2.32 1.27

Among the 21 relievers the Phillies used in 2013, two (Jake Diekman and Joe Savery) threw at least ten innings in relief with an ERA better than 3.50 but a ratio worse than 1.28. Two (Raul Valdes and Michael Stutes) also had a ratio of 1.28 or better, but an ERA worse than 3.50. But Papelbon and Bastardo were the only two of the 21 that were as good or better than league average in both ERA and ratio.

Here’s the 19 who were worse than league average in both categories:

Pitcher G IP ERA Ratio
Justin De Fratus 
Jake Diekman 
Luis Garcia 
Raul Valdes 
Jeremy Horst 
Mike Adams 
J.C. Ramirez 
Joe Savery 
B.J. Rosenberg 
Zach Miner 
Phillippe Aumont 
Michael Stutes 
Cesar Jimenez 
Chad Durbin 
Ethan Martin 
Tyler Cloyd 
Mauricio Robles 
Casper Wells 
John McDonald 
58
45
24
16
28
28
18
18
22
13
22
16
19
16
7
2
3
1
1
46.7
38.3
31.3
31.3
26.0
25.0
24.0
20.0
19.7
19.3
19.3
17.7
17.0
16.0
7.0
6.0
4.7
0.7
0.3
3.86
2.58
3.73
5.74
6.23
3.96
7.50
3.15
4.58
3.72
4.19
4.58
3.71
9.00
3.86
3.00
1.93
67.50
0.00
1.50
1.30
1.60
1.21
1.81
1.36
1.88
1.30
1.48
1.55
1.91
1.25
1.41
2.13
1.29
1.67
2.14
9.00
6.00

Overall for the season, the starters threw way more innings than the pen. The Phillies pitched 1,436 1/3 innings in 2013 and 961 2/3, about 67%, were thrown by the starters. Hamels and Lee combined to throw 442 2/3 innings, which is about 46% of the total innings thrown by Phillie starting pitchers on the year.


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