My most recent guess at the hitters who start the year with the Phillies came mid-February and looked like this:

Other candidates
1 Kratz D Ruf
2 Howard F Galvis
3 Utley D Young
4 Rollins Y Betancourt
5 M Young H Quintero
6 Nix S Lerud
7 Revere K Frandsen
8 Brown E Inciarte
9 Mayberry T Gillies
10 L Collier
11 J Mitchell
12 C Hernandez
13 M Martinez
P Orr
A Blanco
J Fields
J Mather
T Joseph
C Asche

I filled out the four roster spots I wasn’t sure about with guesses of Quintero, Galvis, Frandsen and Ruf.

Several of the guys on the top list are no longer with the major league camp. Mather, Joseph, Asche, Martinez and Zach Collier have all been released, optioned to the minors or sent to minor league camp.

It also seems pretty clear that Delmon Young will not start the year with the Phillies.

The Phils have four hitting slots to fill. One has to go to a backup catcher. One has to go to someone who can back up short. One will likely go to a fifth outfielder and the other seems likely to go to a backup infielder.

I still think Quintero is the backup catcher. I don’t think the spring results are going to matter a whole ton — I think Quintero gets the job because of his defense. He’s 3-for-10 so far while Lerud is 1-for-6.

The backup shortstop is either Betancourt or Galvis. Both have hit well this spring. Galvis is hitting 308/325/564 while Betancourt has hit 360/379/400. I think Galvis makes the team, which presumably leaves Betancourt competing with Frandsen for the backup infielder role. Frandsen can’t play defense but is hitting even more than Galvis so far — he’s posted a 355/375/742 line in his 31 at-bats.

I think Frandsen makes the team, too, which presumably leaves no room for Betancourt even if he keeps on hitting .400.

Quintero, Galvis and Frandsen is three more spots, leaving one, which presumably has to be filled with an outfielder.

Ruf and Inciarte seem like the primary candidates. Despite a recent spark with the bat, Ruf has been awful offensively, hitting 188/316/281 over 32 at-bats, and has also looked miserable defensively in the chances he’s gotten to play outfield. Inciarte has gone 3-for-11 with three singles and three walks in limited time. Probably not a candidate is Jermaine Mitchell, who has OPSed a team-high 1.389 in his nine at-bats, going 4-for-9 with a walk and two triples.

I have no idea what the Phillies are going to do. In the unlikely event they leave it up to me, I think I’m making Jermaine Mitchell the fifth outfielder. That probably won’t happen, though. Forced to guess I will guess they carry Inciarte.

Mayberry has been pretty miserable this spring after being pretty miserable last year, hitting 225/279/350 in 40 at-bats this spring. I can’t really imagine the Phillies wouldn’t carry him to start the year, though, given how thin they are in the outfield. Still, it seems like Brown, Revere and Nix and locks to make the team in a different way than Mayberry is.

Anyway, Quintero, Galvis, Frandsen and Inciarte gives the Phillies 13 hitters — Kratz, Quintero, Howard, Utley, Rollins, Michael Young, Nix, Mayberry, Revere, Brown, Inciarte, Galvis and Frandsen. That doesn’t seem particularly strong to me as I don’t think you really want to give about 40% of your opening day roster to Kratz, Quintero, Inciarte, Galvis and Frandsen.

Here’s the list of pitchers from the last time I offered a guess:

Other candidates
1 Halladay (R) P Aumont (R)
2 Lee (L) T Cloyd (R)
3 Hamels (L) J De Fratus (R)
4 Kendrick (R) M Schwimer (R)
5 Lannan (L) M Stutes (R)
6 Papelbon (R) BJ Rosenberg (R)
7 Adams (R) E Martin (R)
8 Bastardo (L) J Pettibone (R)
9 Durbin (R) JC Ramirez (R)
10 Z Miner (R)
11 A Cook (R)
12 R Lopez (R)
J Friend (R)
K Simon (R)
J Horst (L)
R Valdes (L)
J Diekman (L)
J Savery (L)
M Robles (L)
C Jimenez (L)
A Morgan (L)

I gave the last three spots to Aumont, De Fratus and Horst.

Morgan, JC Ramirez, Pettibone, Simon, Martin and Savery have been sent down since then, leaving the list looking more like this:

Other candidates
1 Halladay (R) P Aumont (R)
2 Lee (L) T Cloyd (R)
3 Hamels (L) J De Fratus (R)
4 Kendrick (R) M Schwimer (R)
5 Lannan (L) M Stutes (R)
6 Papelbon (R) BJ Rosenberg (R)
7 Adams (R) Z Miner (R)
8 Bastardo (L) A Cook (R)
9 Durbin (R) R Lopez (R)
10 J Friend (R)
11 J Horst (L)
12 R Valdes (L)
J Diekman (L)
M Robles (L)
C Jimenez (L)

The Phillies presumably have three spots to fill in the bullpen. Most people seem to think that righties Aumont, De Fratus, Stutes and lefties Horst, Valdes and Diekman are competing for those three spots.

Aumont is the guy of that group who has pitched the best in official spring training games, throwing two scoreless innings in two appearances. Pitching for the Canadian team in the World Baseball Classic, he allowed three runs on five hits and a walk over 1 2/3 innings in his first two appearances.

Horst and Valdes seemed like front-runners coming into the spring. Both have been awful. 12.00 ERA and a 2.17 ratio for Horst with four home runs allowed in six innings. Valdes has a 7.36 ERA with a 1.23 ratio and has allowed four home runs in 7 1/3 but also has struck out 11.

Diekman is the other lefty of the six. He’s been better than either Horst or Valdes, striking out ten in six innings while throwing to a 3.00 ERA with a 1.17 ratio.

De Fratus has a 7.50 ERA and a 1.67 ratio in his five appearances.

I am going to be very surprised if the Phillies carry Stutes coming off his injury. He’s thrown to a 6.75 ERA in his four appearances.

I think Aumont makes the team given the combination of his pretty good results and the struggles of De Fratus and Stutes.

I still think Horst makes the team despite his struggles given his 1.15 ERA from 2012.

Stumped on the last one. I don’t think it’s going to Stutes, but it could. I’d guess it goes to whoever pitches the best among Valdes, De Fratus and Diekman the rest of the way. Forced to pick between those three I will go will Valdes.

So Aumont, Horst and Valdes are my guesses to fill out the three remaining spots. That would leave the Phillies with 12 pitchers: Halladay, Hamels, Lee, Kendrick, Lannan, Papelbon, Adams, Durbin, Bastardo, Aumont, Horst and Valdes.

Halladay is expected to pitch this afternoon as the Phils face the Tigers.

Update: The Phillies optioned Cloyd, Rosenberg, Mauricio Robles, Tyson Gillies and Sebastian Valle to minor league camp.