Freeze frame, November, 2012. The Phillies shock the baseball world by naming you their new GM. Your job — add a starting center fielder, a starting third baseman, a starting corner outfielder, a top setup man and a fifth starter. Trade Vance Worley, Trevor May, Josh Lindblom and Lisalverto Bonilla if you want, but make sure you take on less than $20 million in 2013 payroll.
Good luck.
If that’s your charge and you come back with Ben Revere, Michael Young, Delmon Young, John Lannan and Mike Adams, you’ve done your job.
Obviously Amaro had more flexibility than that, especially around who he traded. Keeping Worley would have made adding a fifth starter unnecessary. And some of the positions he filled from outside of the organization could have been filled from within. If the Phillies fail to play Domonic Brown just about every day to start 2013, they’re making a mistake. But they haven’t done that yet and, no matter what they say in January, I don’t think they will. And I don’t think that the off-season has been a disaster for the Phillies.
If there’s a disaster here, and despite how ugly 2012 was, I don’t think this is a disaster yet, it didn’t start this off-season. It started a couple of years ago and moves slow.
Success or failure for the 2013 Phillies is going to have a whole lot more to do with what Ryan Howard, Jonathan Papelbon, Chase Utley, Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee combine to produce for the $137ish million the Phils have committed to pay them than it will with what Delmon Young produces for the $750,000 they’ve committed to pay him. And a lot of what we saw in 2012 should make you worry about that group’s ability to produce $137 million worth of value in 2013.
You can pay all five of the new guys mentioned above this season with the $20 million the Phils have committed to Howard. With a couple of million left over. You can get most of the way there with the $13 million they’re going to pay Papelbon.
It’s a lotta eggs in a small number of baskets. There is no solution if those eggs can’t play anymore or simply have bad contracts — but it’s not Delmon Young’s fault, either. The choices are declare it’s over and rebuild or declare it’s not and do what you can with the limited flexibility that you have left. I’m glad they chose the later. This is what do what you can with the limited flexibility you have looks like.
Bottom line for me is that the Phillies may have made mistakes. Some of them are big mistakes. Maybe too big for the team to overcome in next few seasons. I’m a lot less sure they came this off-season, though.
Yesterday I updated my guess on who the hitters on the team are at this point. Earlier this month I made a guess on the pitching side. Here’s what I came up with then:
| Other candidates | ||
| 1 | Halladay (R) | P Aumont (R) |
| 2 | Lee (L) | T Cloyd (R) |
| 3 | Hamels (L) | J De Fratus (R) |
| 4 | Kendrick (R) | M Schwimer (R) |
| 5 | Lannan (L) | M Stutes (R) |
| 6 | Papelbon (R) | BJ Rosenberg (R) |
| 7 | Adams (R) | E Martin (R) |
| 8 | Bastardo (L) | J Pettibone (R) |
| 9 | JC Ramirez (R) | |
| 10 | Z Miner (R) | |
| 11 | J Horst (L) | |
| 12 | R Valdes (L) | |
| J Diekman (L) | ||
| J Savery (L) | ||
| M Robles (L) | ||
| C Jimenez (L) |
Assuming 12 pitching spots to start the season, I gave the four open slots to Horst, Aumont, Valdes and De Fratus.
Not a whole lot has changed since January 9. The Phillies signed free agent righties Rodrigo Lopez, Aaron Cook and Juan Cruz and announced that righties Justin Friend and Kyle Simon would be invited to camp as NRIs, along with lefty Adam Morgan.
The list looks pretty much the same in my mind these days, with the exception of the addition of a few candidates:
| Other candidates | ||
| 1 | Halladay (R) | P Aumont (R) |
| 2 | Lee (L) | T Cloyd (R) |
| 3 | Hamels (L) | J De Fratus (R) |
| 4 | Kendrick (R) | M Schwimer (R) |
| 5 | Lannan (L) | M Stutes (R) |
| 6 | Papelbon (R) | BJ Rosenberg (R) |
| 7 | Adams (R) | E Martin (R) |
| 8 | Bastardo (L) | J Pettibone (R) |
| 9 | JC Ramirez (R) | |
| 10 | Z Miner (R) | |
| 11 | J Cruz (R) | |
| 12 | A Cook (R) | |
| R Lopez (R) | ||
| J Friend (R) | ||
| K Simon (R) | ||
| J Horst (L) | ||
| R Valdes (L) | ||
| J Diekman (L) | ||
| J Savery (L) | ||
| M Robles (L) | ||
| C Jimenez (L) | ||
| A Morgan (L) |
I still feel pretty good about the Horst and Aumont picks. That gets the Phillies to ten pitchers — five starters and five relievers, including two lefties in Bastardo and Horst.
I feel like there’s a chance that Cook can challenge Lannan for the fifth starter job. But I still think Lannan is the guy. Kendrick ended the season pitching really well out of the rotation, but I shake the feeling that the Phillies would be better off using him as a long reliever. I don’t think that’s going to happen, though, at least not to start the season.
Assuming Kendrick is in the rotation, there’s still an issue about long relief. The Phillies don’t have a long man in the ten guys I mentioned. Juan Cruz seems like he might get some consideration for that role. I’d guess the Phils think Rosenberg could give them more than one inning.
I still think the last two spots are pretty wide open. Valdes and De Fratus were the two relievers I picked last time. Valdes was fantastic for the Phillies in 2012 and De Fratus has put up outstanding numbers in the minors over the last few years.
Valdes would be the third lefty in the pen, though. And they still wouldn’t have a long man. Stutes is the other guy who seems like a legit candidate if he shows he’s healthy early in camp. He was solid for the Phillies in 2011 and got four or more outs in 14 of his 57 appearances.
Anyway, I’ll stick with Horst, Aumont, Valdes and De Fratus for the last four spots. That leaves the Phils with 12 pitchers — Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Kendrick, Lannan, Papelbon, Adams, Bastardo, Horst, Aumont, De Fratus and Valdes. Still three lefties and still no long reliever. My top candidates among the guys not on that list would be Cruz, Rosenberg and Stutes.
This article suggests the Phillies have had the third-best off-season in the NL East.
January 25th, 2013 on 4:30 pm
I do not know how long I have been here, but it has been a little while, anyway. This well may be the best single piece you have done. In my opinion.
Yes, we have arrived where we are over a longer time span than this winter. There has been a series of decisions over time that were – apparently – ill advised. I am sure we all have our top three WTFs. It is hard to miss the fact that every year since 2008 has been less successful than the year preceding it (measured in how deep into the post season we have gone, which is for me the yardstick of success or failure). Your point is right on the mark when you say that it is the core with the big contracts and names who simply have to perform. If they do not, the rest of it is merely sidebar.
The thing is that they DID tie money up in big names. And they DID trade away the cream of their farm system for players who were supposed to warrent those trades. What still befuddles me is that they did all of that and then either do not have the resources or are not willing to spend the resources to complete the team. Not being willing to go over the cap means that they essentially flush the money spent on those pitchers and the years of their careers here down the hole. The economics of that mystifies me.
My top three WTFs: The choice to spend three serious prospects on a one year rental of Hunter Pence was a terrible choice. Not to acquire corner outfielders last winter when they were plentiful and good and FAR less expensive than this winter was a false economy and a poor baseball decision. Not knowing more accurately the medical condition of Chase Utley and Ryan Howard over last winter and preparing appropriately was professionally negligent.
So, here we go. I do have considerable hope that the core everyday players will be both healthy and productive this year, and that we will have them for the year. I do think that the core pitching will be back; Halliday will be back if it is all physically possible. He is far too proud a man and tough a competitor not to, unless he is simply toasted. And I am pretty happy with the acquisitions of both Revere and Michael Young. I think both of those guys will give us reason to cheer. I like the way the bullpen is shaping up; last year ought to be a miserable and fading memory. And I even have hope that Ruf might just be a player. If he is, man will that be a dose of good cheer.
I am worried about not having Chooch for a whole month. I am worried about the corners defensively and offensively. I am sick of hearing about and depending on Dom Brown.
So pitchers and catchers in EIGHTEEN DAYS. I can’t wait.
January 25th, 2013 on 5:02 pm
The contracts for Howard and Papelbon just kill me. Let’s hope they don’t kill the Phillies, too. Not sure what my third WTF would be.
I don’t hate the Pence deal as much as you.
I like Domonic Brown a lot more than you do. I think you’re going to see him a lot this year.
Definitely with you on the 18 days.
January 25th, 2013 on 5:20 pm
Yeah, hard to argue your view of the Papelbon contract. That’s number 4 for me.
Seeing Brown means one of two things to me. Everyone else is either injured or sucks. Because I just cannot believe that he will actually EARN time on the field.
It would be fun to sit with you at the Bank. We would have seriously good conversation. Especially when Dom comes to bat. lolololol