Continuing down the Start Log is more information on quality starts. Here’s some info on quality starts by Phillies pitchers over the past three seasons:
| 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | |
| % of starts QS | 61.1 | 66.7 | 58.0 |
| % of starts not QS | 38.9 | 33.3 | 42.0 |
| Record in QS | 62-37 (.626) | 83-25 (.769) | 69-25 (.734) |
| Record in not QS | 19-44 (.302) | 19-35 (.352) | 28-40 (.412) |
| ERA in QS | 2.02 | 1.65 | 1.66 |
| Ratio in QS | 0.97 | 0.94 | 0.94 |
| ERA in not QS | 7.61 | 6.25 | 7.21 |
| Ratio in not QS | 1.74 | 1.59 | 1.67 |
So the percentage of starts the Phillies made that were quality starts in 2012 is down from 2011, but higher than it was in 2010. The quality starts they did get were worse than in either of the two previous years and the non-quality starts they got were also worse than they have been in either of the two previous years.
Most importantly, though, the team’s results in 2012 were a whole lot worse in games when they either got or didn’t get a quality start. Their winning percentage in quality starts in 2012 was .626. Their winning percentage in all games in 2011, whether they got a quality start or not, was .630. The .626 winning percentage in quality starts in 2012 was .143 lower than their winning percentage in quality starts in 2011 and .108 lower than their winning percentage in quality starts in 2010.
For non-quality starts, the winning percentage is down .050 from 2011 and .110 from 2010.
The drop in all of those winning percentages obviously has more than a little to do with the offense. The Phillies were eighth in the NL in runs scored in 2012, seventh in 2011 and second in 2010.
Jimmy Rollins appears to be the shortstop for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic. Gillies, Aumont and Orr will play for Team Canada. The WBC starts on March 2. It has been held twice before, in 2006 and 2009, with Japan winning both times. USA’s best finish has been fourth (in 2009).
This article suggests that Cody Asche could be the team’s third baseman in 2014. It’s going to surprise me if the Phillies give him the everyday job in 2014. It’s going to surprise me a little if he gets more than a handful of at-bats for the Phillies in 2014, actually. Asche has two years in the minors so far. In one of them he hit .192 in 268 plate appearances in the New York-Penn League.
Article on 22-year-old right-handed pitcher Kyle Simon here. Simon joined the Phillies last year in the Thome deal. He had struggled in Baltimore’s minors in 2012, but threw to a 1.36 ERA with an 0.71 ratio in 39 2/3 innings between Clearwater and Reading after joining the Phils.
January 18th, 2013 on 8:00 pm
2nd. 7th. 8th.
Probably need to work on that tendency, huh.
No way we get back to 2nd. But IF (stop me if you’ve heard this before) Utley/Howard/Young/Brown come close to either past performances or elevated expectations, we ought to make up some of that ground.
How high do you think we could go? IF, of course.
January 18th, 2013 on 10:43 pm
I’d guess fourth or fifth in the league in scoring maybe if they got good years from all those guys? That could be more than enough if the pitching is good enough. But I’d guess the hitting won’t be nearly that good unless they add some bats.
January 19th, 2013 on 10:46 am
I’m thinking fourth, assuming pitching, would go a long ways towards getting this year to finish in a happier way.
The bullpen has to be better than last year, I’m thinking, so we shouldn’t be blowing the number of games we blew last year. Of course, our new 8th inning guy has to be back from shoulder surgery for that pen to be a real strength, but it actually might be a strength if he is. I like Atlanta’s pen better than ours, but aside from them I like our guys. I have to give Amaro that.
All those offensive “ifs” are going to be the issue. More runs, less streaky. And I agree – we need a danged bat from the right side.
So ok, you DID suggest “Ya gotta believe” a couple of days ago.