I finalized the Start Log for 2012.
I think there’s some interesting stuff there that reminds a lot about what went wrong for the Phillies in 2012.
Looking at the blue band in the middle and starting at the top, we see the team’s record by starting pitcher. Some highlights:
- The Phillies went 14-11 in Halladay’s starts in 2012. Coming into the season, in Halladay’s two years with the Phils the team was 46-19 in the games he started.
- 21-10 in games started by Hamels, by far the best mark of any pitcher on the team. The Phils finished the year 81-81, so that means they were 60-71 when someone other than Hamels started. That’s a little remarkable given that two of the team’s other starters were Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay.
- In 2011, the Phillies won 15 or more games in the starts made by four different pitchers (24-8 under Halladay, 18-13 Hamels, 22-10 Lee and 16-5 Worley). In 2012, the team only won 15 or more games in the starts made by Hamels.
- The Phillies went 23-32 when Lee or Worley started. They were 38-15 in starts by that duo in 2011 (22-10 when Lee started and 16-5 when Worley started). In 2011, the Phillies had a better record in Worley’s 21 starts (16-5 for a .762 winning percentage) than they did in Halladay’s starts (24-8, .750).
- Despite a nice year from Kendrick, the team was still just 11-14 in the games he started. The Phillies went 1-9 in the first ten games in which Kendrick appeared in 2012 — he started five of those games and appeared in relief in the other five. Over the last two season the Phils are 30-41 in games in which Kendrick appeared and 18-22 in the 40 games that he started.
- 11-9 in the Blanton starts. The Blanton era ends in Philly with good results for the team. He made exactly 100 starts for the Phils between 2008 and 2012 with the Phillies going 58-42 in the games that he started. Since 2008, the Phillies have won about as many games that were started by Blanton (58) as they have games started by Halladay (60). Blanton has made 100 starts for the Phils over the last five seasons while Halladay has made 90. Hamels is the only pitcher who has started more games that the Phillies won over the past five season — they are 92-68 in games started by Hamels since the beginning of ’08.
The Phillies have signed 37-year-old right-handed pitcher Rodrigo Lopez to a minor league deal. Lopez made seven appearances with the Phillies in 2009, ending the year with a 5.70 ERA. He had a 3.09 ERA with a 1.37 ratio through his first four starts and took a 3.99 ERA into his final appearance of the season on August 9. Lopez allowed six runs in two-thirds of an inning in that game, which was also memorable because Shane Victorino was ejected for arguing balls and strikes while he was in center field with the other team batting. Lopez will try to make the team in spring training as an NRI.
This mailbag from the Phillies web site mentions Humberto Quintero and Zach Miner as top candidates to make the team to start the year among the non-roster invitees. I will be surprised if Miner makes the team to start the year and surprised if Qunitero does not. The same article suggests the possibility of bringing Delmon Young to the Phillies and mentions his “baggage” as one of the reasons that might be difficult. Another is he is a bad defensive outfielder and has had two bad years offensively in a row. The mailbag also guesses that Cloyd will start the year in Triple-A.
This article suggests that the Phillies could easily be in rebuilding mode by July. The Phils would have a real tough time rebuilding if they weren’t able to trade Howard, Utley and Halladay. I would guess they would have some difficulty trading Howard at this point unless they were willing to pay a whole lot of his salary.
January 15th, 2013 on 3:34 pm
Add to this that the Nats add another elite player today to their bullpen. Meanwhile the Phillies extend their green program by recycling the trash.
Yeah. I don’t know how they rebuild either, given Howard. But some AL team will want Utley as second/DH. Doc is not going to make his option numbers, so his cost is gone. And someone will want Lee at the deadline. One thing seems certain and that is they have pretty much conceded this year. Amaro will argue otherwise, but there are way too many “ifs” that must break right all at the same time for this year to result in anything close to the post season. The only way we make second in the East is if Chipper’s loss guts the Braves offense. And it just might. But this year looks sort of sad from the get go to me.
And yes, I paid for my season tickets today.
January 15th, 2013 on 5:04 pm
Um, ya gotta believe? Maybe?
I think it would have been worse news if the Phillies had given Soriano $14 million a year for two years. That’s kind of a lot.
January 15th, 2013 on 9:31 pm
Yeah. I’ll be there. I was there in far worse years. I will be there in worse years to come.
I just cannot fathom the reasoning that led them to invest such huge amounts of money in the present lineup, which is built to win NOW (or last year, actually) and then be too cheap to go over the cap last year when the corner outfielders they needed were available for far less than this year’s costs. I mean, seriously. What in the heck were they thinking? Now they are tossing huge amounts of money into the wind and at the same time destroying the rabid fan base they had made. the Bank will not be a destination spot for Philadelphia by the All Star break. The economics of that makes no sense to me at all. I am just stumped.
January 16th, 2013 on 9:15 am
It does seem like a really odd combination of veterans near the end of their career and young guys that haven’t done anything and may never.
I do think the Phillies will add another outfielder, either before the season starts or shortly after. That will make things look a little better. I don’t think they have much chance if two of Brown, Ruf, Mayberry and Nix are going to start every day. Even if Brown is going to be great, there’s a good chance he’s not going to start in 2013. I don’t think anyone of the rest of the group has much of a chance to be great.