Archive for December, 2012

Don’t walk

The last post suggested that if Ben Revere is going to continue to hit for (almost literally) no power, he’s going to need to dramatically improve his walk rate if he’s ever going to post a wOBA above league average. He could also try hitting like .340 or so, but let’s just assume that’s not going to happen.

There are, though, guys who walk at the rate Ben Revere has, 5.2% of his plate appearances in 2011 and about 5.4% in 2012, and still post a wOBA better than league average.

Here’s the list of the guys over the past five seasons who have gotten enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title and walked in between 5.2% and 5.4% of their plate appearances as well as their FanGraph‘s calculated wOBAs.

% BB wOBA League average wOBA ISO
Pierzynski ’12 5.4 .351 .321 .223
Hardy ’12 5.3 .290 .321 .151
Boesch ’12 5.2 .288 .321 .132
Cozart ’12 5.2 .298 .321 .153
Montero ’12 5.2 .295 .321 .126
Viciedo ’12 5.2 .321 .321 .188
Suzuki ’11 5.4 .281 .316 .064
Infante ’11 5.3 .306 .316 .105
Soriano ’11 5.3 .326 .316 .225
Guerrero ’10 5.4 .364 .321 .196
Polanco ’10 5.3 .322 .321 .088
Cabrera ’10 5.2 .292 .321 .091
Callaspo ’10 5.2 .297 .321 .109
Aybar ’09 5.4 .340 .329 .111
Byrd ’09 5.3 .346 .329 .196
Polanco ’09 5.3 .321 .329 .112
’08 — no players - - - -

So there are 16 instances over the past five seasons of a player with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title who also walked in 5.2% to 5.4% of his plate appearances (like Ben Revere).

Of those 16, seven had a year in which their wOBA was league average or better.

If you’re never going to walk, or walk about 5.4% of the time or so, the two most likely ways to do that are to hit for a monster average or hit with monster power. Or a combination of the two.

Adrian Beltre, who does not appear on the table above, is the king of posting huge wOBA numbers with a low walk rate. He does both. In 2012, Beltre was ninth among the 143 qualified players across both leagues with a .388 wOBA despite a walk rate of just 5.5%. He hit .321 with 33 doubles and 36 home runs. In 2011 he walked in just 4.8% of his plate appearances but was 22nd across both leagues in wOBA, thanks to hitting .296 with 32 homers.

Ben Revere is never, ever going to hit for monster power.

Of the seven guys who got to average or better, five of them did it showing very good isolated power. Those five are: Pierzynski in 2012, Viciedo in ’12, Soriano in ’11, Guerrero in 2010 and Marlon Byrd in 2009. Of that group of five, the worse isolated power mark is Dayan Viciedo’s .188 in 2012 — he hit 25 home runs in 543 plate appearances for the White Sox last year. The best isolated power mark of that group of five is the .225 for Soriano in 2011.

The other two guys who fill out the list are Placido Polanco in 2010 and Erick Aybar in 2009. Those guys made it to league average or better (although just barely in Polanco’s case) for wOBA despite not walking and not hitting for power.

Polanco hit 298/339/386 that year with an isolated power of .088. Revere can hit .298 and can even on-base .339. We’ll have to wait and see, but an isolated power of .088 seems like it might require a little wishful thinking. Polanco didn’t steal any bases in 2010, just five for the year. So that’s an element Revere could bring to his wOBA to deliver a ’10 Polanco-like year without as much power if he does not improve his walk rate.

Aybar hit .312 in ’09, posting a 312/353/423 line with a .340 wOBA that put him well above league average. His isolated power of .111 for the year was even better than Polanco’s and seems well out of reach for Revere.

So, if Revere’s going to get to league average or better in wOBA, it looks like there’s a bunch of things he’s going to have to do in combination to have a chance to get there — hit for a real high average, steal a whole lot of bases without getting caught hardly at all, increase his walk rate and do as much as possible to deliver some more power. The power from year to year is probably going to be a fluke — you’re not going to see him hit the ball out of the yard ten or five or probably even three times in a season. What you might see is a bunch of weird bounces that give him five or seven doubles in a year that turn into triples, which would do good things for his isolated power.

Recent Phillie rumors include 1) the Phillies are interested in Alfonso Soriano and may have offered Domonic Brown straight up for him and 2) the Phillies have offered Josh Hamilton a three-year deal.

The linked article points out that if Josh Hamilton was willing to take a three-year deal there would be a whole lot of teams interested in giving him one.

The White Sox got Jeff Keppinger on a three-year, $12 million deal.

This article mentions Joe Saunders, Chris Young, Carl Pavano, Derek Lowe, John Lannan, Jair Jurrjens, Kevin Millwood, and Chien-Ming Wang as the type of player the Phillies might target to fill out their rotation. Both Pavano and Jurrjens were awful in 2012, but they seem to me to be the guys on the list with the biggest upside for 2013.

Walk like some other man

Either that or find some power.

At this point in his career, Ben Revere has 1,064 career plate appearances and an isolated power of .045. He has hit to a .278 average with a .323 slugging percentage (.323 minus .278 gives you .045, his isolated power).

As I mentioned in the previous post, that’s really an alarming lack of power.

So. Is it possible to be an above average offensive player with an isolated power that low? Below .050?

Yes. It just doesn’t happen very often. And when it does happen, it happens to guys who walk a lot more than Revere has to this point.

The table below shows the players who have put up an isolated power of .050 or worse of the past eight seasons over at least 400 plate appearances, their wOBA as calculated by FanGraphs and average wOBA for that season.

Year Player ISO wOBA Average wOBA
2012 B Revere .049 .300 .315
2012 J Carroll .049 .299 .315
2011 J Pierre .049 .296 .311
2011 B Revere .042 .278 .311
2011 C Getz .032 .274 .311
2010 J Carroll .048 .327 .321
2010 C Figgins .047 .298 .321
2010 R Theriot .043 .286 .321
2010 J Kendall .041 .280 .321
2010 J Pierre .041 .302 .321
2010 C Izutris .038 .249 .321
2010 E Andrus .036 .298 .321
2009 W Taveras .045 .252 .329
2009 L Castillo .043 .334 .329
2008 W Taveras .046 .277 .318
2008 C Izturis .046 .286 .318
2008 J Pierre .045 .296 .318
2008 C Figgins .042 .316 .318
2007 No players - - -
2006 J Kendall .047 .321 .332
2005 J Kendall .050 .304 .326

So the table lists 20 seasons for players over the last eight years in which the player has gotten 400 plate appearances with an isolated power of .050 or worse. Of those 20 seasons, there are only two in which the player had a wOBA for that year that was better than average. Jamey Carroll had an isolated power of .048 in 2010 with a .327 wOBA in 2010. Luis Castillo had an .044 isolated power in 2009 with a wOBA of .334.

Carroll hit .291 for the Dodgers in 2010. Castillo hit .302 for the Mets in 2009. Revere hit .294 for the Twins last year, and .326 in the minors. So .291 or .302 in 2013 is certainly possible. We know from their isolated power marks that Carroll and Castillo didn’t hit for power in those seasons. The way they got their wOBA up above average was by walking more.

But how much more?

Carroll ’10 414 291/379/339 .088 51 12.3
Castillo ’09 580 302/387/346 .085 69 11.9
Revere ’11 481 267/310/309 .043 26 5.4
Revere ’12 553 294/333/342 .039 29 5.2

So, for example, in 2010, Jamey Carroll got 414 plate appearances in which he put up a 291/379/339 line. He had .088 points of on-base percentage if you subtract his .379 on-base percentage from his .291 average. He walked 51 times, which was 12.3% of his plate appearances.

As you can see, for each of those years, the percentage of plate appearances in which Castillo and Carroll walked was more than twice as high as it was in either of Ben Revere’s last two seasons with the Twinkies.

Also notable is that for both Carroll and Castillo, their walk rate for the given year (’10 for Carroll or ’09 for Castillo) is higher than their walk rate for their career. Carroll drew walks in 12.3% of his plate appearances, which was higher than his 9.9% for his career. Castillo’s 11.9% is higher than his career mark of 10.7%.

This article suggests that Manuel downplayed the notion of needing a late-inning defensive replacement for Young and might also avoid hitting lefties Revere, Utley and Howard all in a row in his lineup.

Bennie and the jets

The table below shows how Revere’s numbers compare to the numbers of fellow left-handed speedsters Juan Pierre and Michael Bourn in their age 23 and 24 seasons. Also included are the numbers for Pierre and Bourn for their next two years as well as what they did in 2011 and 2012 (Revere’s age 23 and 24 seasons).

Player and age Year PA AVG/OBP/SLG wOBA bWAR fWAR UZR/150 in OF
Revere 23 ’11 481 267/310/309 .278 (-.038) 0.7 2.0 14.4
Revere 24 ’12 553 294/333/342 .300 (-.015) 2.4 3.4 18.6
Pierre 23 ’01 683 327/378/415 .350 (+.023) 2.9 2.6 UKN
Pierre 24 ’02 640 287/332/343 .304 (-.022) 0.4 2.3 15.3
Pierre 25 ’03 747 305/361/373 .328 (+-0) 3.4 4.7 9.1
Pierre 26 ’04 748 326/374/407 .345 (+.015) 3.7 4.4 -4.9
Pierre 33 ’11 711 279/329/327 .296 (-.020) -0.8 -0.5 -10.7
Pierre 34 ’12 439 307/351/371 .320 (+.005) 1.9 1.7 -0.4
Bourn 23 ’06 11 - - - - -
Bourn 24 ’07 133 277/348/378 .320 (-.011) 0.9 1.2 22.9
Bourn 25 ’08 514 229/288/300 .267 (-.061) 0.7 0.2 4.0
Bourn 26 ’09 678 285/354/384 .330 (+.001) 4.7 4.9 9.9
Bourn 28 ’11 722 294/349/386 .325 (+.009) 3.0 4.1 -6.2
Bourn 29 ’12 703 274/348/391 .326 (+.011) 6.0 6.4 22.5

For wOBA, it’s important to remember that the average wOBA changes from year to year. So, for example, the 2011 wOBA line for Revere means that his actual wOBA for 2011 was .278 and that .278 was .038 lower than the average wOBA for the year of .316.

You can see the constants that FanGraphs uses for calculating wOBA here.

Bourn barely played at all when he was 23 or 24. Pierre was better offensively than Revere in his 23 and 24-year-old seasons, but not as good defensively, at least by UZR/150 in all outfield positions combined.

If you total up the WAR for Revere and Pierre for their age 23 and 24 seasons, Revere is at 3.1 bWAR and Pierre 3.3. By fWAR, Revere tops Pierre 5.4 to 4.9. Important to remember is that Pierre got a lot more chances to play and accumulate WAR in his age 23 and 24 seasons, getting 289 more plate appearances in the two years combined and playing 468 1/3 more innings in the outfield.

Bourn, notably, got just 144 plate appearances through his age 24 seasons and then was terrible in his age 25 season before putting up a big year with the Astros at age 26 (285/354/384 with 61 stolen bases).

Revere has displayed no power to date, even relative to the light-hitting Pierre and Bourn, and almost surely never will.

His isolated power in 2011 was .042. That was 175 of 175 players across both leagues with 450 or more plate appearances. Pierre was 174th on that list at .049.

In 2012, Revere was at .049. That was 114th of 114 players across both leagues with 550 or more plate appearances. Nobody else with 550 or more PA came close to showing that little power last year. Yunel Escobar was 113th of 114 and his isolated power was .091.

If you remove the 2006 season for Bourn in which he got 11 plate appearances, there are 13 seasons between Pierre, Bourn and Revere on the table above. Revere’s best mark for isolated power over the last two seasons is .049. There’s only one season in which either Pierre or Bourn has an isolated power worse than .049 — Pierre put up an .049 in 2011 on his way to a miserable, negative WAR season.

Bourn’s isolated power in 2012 was .117, which is the highest mark for any of the 13 seasons. Between both leagues, there were 148 players who got at least 500 plate appearances in 2012. Bourn’s isolated power of .117 was 122nd best of the 148.

The Phillies traded relievers Josh Lindblom and Lisalverto Bonilla to Texas for Michael Young. The linked article also suggests that the Rangers will pay about $10 million of Young’s 2012 salary, leaving $6 million for the Phillies to pay. It also suggests the Phillies paid Young $1.2 million to waive his no-trade clause and will give him a new no-trade clause.

Young was terrible in 2012. If he’s that bad again in 2013, that’s not going to work out for the Phillies. I like the deal, though, cause he still has upside and willing be playing for his next contract. Linblom’s numbers out of Dodger Stadium were never real impressive.

This article says that after the trade of Worley, the Phillies are looking for a low-risk, high-reward type guy to help fill out the rotation and mentions John Lannan, Dallas Braden, Carlos Zambrano and Roy Oswalt.

Center fielders of attention

John Mayberry, Shane Victorino and Ben Revere have all gotten at least 296 plate appearances in each of the last two years. Here’s how some of their numbers from FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference compare:

PA wOBA CF innings UZR/150 in CF bWAR fWAR
Revere ’11 481 267/310/309 .278 776 1/3 15.1 0.7 2.0
Revere ’12 553 294/333/342 .300 309 -2.1 2.4 3.4
Revere career 1064 278/319/323 .287 1123 1/3 9.2 - -
Victorino ’11 586 279/355/491 .368 1150 2/3 5.7 5.2 5.9
Victorino ’12 666 255/321/383 .310 950 -2.4 2.4 3.3
Victorino career 4295 275/341/430 .338 6571 2/3 3.1 - -
Mayberry ’11 296 273/341/513 .368 246 2/3 -5.6 1.6 2.5
Mayberry ’12 479 245/301/395 .303 474 1/3 -20.7 0.5 0.4
Mayberry career 848 254/313/448 .329 728 -15.9 - -

Starting with the offense, things don’t look good for Revere. Both Victorino and Mayberry were miserable offensively in 2012, which was the better of the two years for Revere, and both finished with a higher wOBA.

In 2011, there were 175 players across both leagues that got 450 plate appearances. Revere’s wOBA of .278 was better than six of them.

In 2012, his .300 wOBA was 100th of 114 players across both leagues with at least 550 plate appearances.

John Mayberry is far from a great hitter. Revere is .042 behind him in career wOBA, which isn’t a great place to be. FanGraph’s calculation of wOBA, which is what appears on the table, includes stolen bases and accounts for the 74 that Revere has swiped over the past two seasons.

Where he has been better than both Victorino and Mayberry over the past two years is defensively. Revere buries Mayberry. The numbers between Revere and Victorino are closer, about the same in 2012, but Revere’s career UZR/150 of 9.2 is considerably better than Victorino’s.

By WAR calculated by the two sites, neither Mayberry or Revere are able to hang with Victorino’s outstanding 2011 season. Revere comes out ahead against Mayberry in 2012, though, by a lot, and is tied with or better than Victorino by each of the calculations for that season.

Important to remember when you look at Revere’s 2012 numbers, though, is that he played more than twice as many innings defensively in right than he did in center. He played 708 1/3 innings defensively in right for the Twins and 309 in center. As the table above shows, he wasn’t particularly good in center in 2012, putting up an UZR/150 in center of -2.1. He was outstanding in right, though, playing to an UZR/150 in right of 27.2.

He was arguably the best defensive right fielder in baseball in 2012. Of the 28 players across both leagues, nobody who played at least 550 innings defensively in right had a better UZR/150 in right than Revere. If you drop that number down to 300 innings in right, Gregor Blanco (32.8 in 431 1/3 innings in right) and Ben Zobrist (30.2 in 541 1/3 innings in right) were both better.

Anyhow, the point is, in 2012 his outstanding defensive play in right helped him accumulate value and accumulate WAR. Assuming he’s going the be the every day center fielder for the Philies next year, he’s not going to have the chance to accumulate value in right. So let’s hope he brings that kind of defensive production to center.

The Rule 5 Draft is over. The Phillies lost no players and picked up 22-year-old outfielder Ender Inciarte and 26-year-old left-hander pitcher Brendan Lafferty.

Ender Inciarte is a fast, left-handed hitting, good defensive center fielder. He turned 22 in October and hasn’t made it to Double-A yet. No power at all, but he hit .307 with 46 stolen bases between two different minor league teams in 2012. Chances seem good that he will have to be offered back to the Diamondbacks, barring a bunch of injuries.

The Royals drafted Brendan Lafferty in the 18th round of the 2009 draft. He struck out 71 in 60 1/3 innings in Double-A in 2012, but also walked 40 while pitching to a 4.77 ERA. Forty is too many walks to allow in 60 1/3 innings.

This says the Phillies signed right-handed pitcher Zach Miner and left-handed pitcher Cesar Jimenez to minor league deals.

Miner spent four years in the majors with Detroit between 2006 and 2009, throwing to a 4.24 ERA with a 1.46 ratio over 157 appearances, 35 of which were starts. He had Tommy John surgery in June of 2010 and hasn’t been back to the majors since. He doesn’t strike people out. In 2012, he made 27 appearances with three different minor league teams in the Detroit organization, throwing to a 2.79 ERA with a 1.21 ratio.

Jimenez is 28 and he thrown 48 1/3 innings in the majors, all with Seattle, pitching to a 5.40 ERA with a 1.47 ratio. He spent most of 2012 in the PCL, pitching to a 5.24 ERA with a 1.67 ratio over 44 2/3 innings in 26 relief appearances.

Vance out of his trance

Back to bWAR and how the Phillies pitching overall might possibly improve in 2013 shortly. Looking back at yesterday’s post, though, the thing that caught my eye the most looking at the data was Vance Worley’s 1.51 ratio in his 23 starts with the Phillies.

That’s awful.

In 2011, Worley went 11-3 with a 3.01 ERA and a 1.23 ratio in 131 2/3 innings for the Phils. He made 25 appearances and 21 of those were starts. Last year he made 23 appearances, all starts, throwing to a 4.20 ERA with a 1.51 ratio.

Ratio is just hits plus walks over innings pitched, so given that his ratio went from 1.23 to 1.51 from 2011 to 2012, either his rate of giving up hits or walks must have gone up dramatically.

One of them did. Here’s his percentage of batters faced who got a hit or a walk in 2011 and 2012:

Year % H % BB
2011 21.0 8.3
2012 26.1 8.0

Worley faced 553 batters in 2011 and 590 in 2012. His walk rate actually went down in 2012 as he walked just 8.0% of the batters he faced. The hits were way up as he allowed hits to 26.1% of the hitters he faced after allowing hits to just 21.0% of hitters in 2011.

Even down from his ’11 mark, Worley’s walk rate of 8.0% was high relative to the rest of the pitchers who started games for the Phillies in 2012. Higher than Hamels (6.0%), Lee (3.3%), Kendrick (7.3%), Halladay (5.6%), Blanton (3.2%), Cloyd (5.1%) and Valdes (4.4%). Higher than everyone but Rosenberg — BJ Rosenberg started one game for the Phillies in 2012 and ended the year with a walk rate of 13.2% (he walked 14 in 25 innings, which is a candidate for stuff to work on going forward).

So Worley’s walk rate was high, at least compared to the other starters for the Phillies. But lowering his walk rate in 2012 didn’t make his ratio go up. It was all of the hits.

Opponents hit .237 against Worley in 2011. They hit .296 against him in 2012. He dominated left-handed hitters in 2011, holding them to a paltry 201/271/299 line. In 2012, lefties hit a less paltry 312/386/462 against him. Righties fared remarkably similarly against him in both years, hitting 272/336/439 against him in 2011 and 280/331/433 in 2012.

Worley had a stunning year in 2011, pitching extremely well in the minors and then extremely well with the Phillies.

Here are his minor and major league numbers combined for hits allowed per nine innings for the years before 2011, 2011 itself and 2012:

Innings H per 9
Before 2011 393 1/3 8.97
2011 182 1/3 7.75
2012 133 10.42
Total 708 2/3 8.93

So clearly he had much more success in preventing hits in 2011 than he had had in the years before or has had since.

For his career, he’s thrown a lot more innings in the minors than in the majors. In his 431 innings in the minors, about 78% of which have come below Triple-A, he has allowed 8.9 hits per nine innings. That includes his 2011 season, when he was fantastic in the minors at preventing hits (7.3 per nine) over 50 2/3 frames. Excluding 2011, over his career he’s allowed 9.09 hits per nine innings in the minors. In 2011, he spent most of the year in the majors and allowed 7.75 hits per nine innings.

And again, in 2011 and 2012, righties posted a nearly identical line against him. Lefties killed him in 2012 and he was unusually fantastic against him in 2011.

So one could make the argument that 2011 was simply a fluke in which Worley allowed way fewer hits than we should expect him to allow in the future.

That’s pretty close to what I believe.

I think there’s a lot of hope out there for people who don’t believe that, though, starting with his outrageous BABIP in 2012.

During 2012, Worley threw 133 innings with a ridiculous batting average for balls in play of .340. Across both leagues, there were 111 pitchers who threw 130 or more innings. Of those 111, only one, Detroit’s Rick Porcello, had a BABIP worse than Worley’s .340. Porcello threw 176 1/3 innings in 2012 with a BABIP of .344.

Beyond that, Worley was really solid in his first 12 starts of the season, throwing to a 2.92 ERA with a 1.26 ratio. His BABIP over those 12 starts was .297. Things went nuts after that, though. Over his last 11 starts, Worley threw to a 5.80 ERA with a 1.83 ratio. Opponents hit .350 against him, with an enormous BABIP of .404. Worley didn’t walk a lot of people in those games and he didn’t give up a lot of home runs. He just allowed a ton of hits.

A quick trip to Worley’s page on FanGraphs seemingly reveals more good news about 2012. His ground ball percentage was up in 2012 relative to 2011. He saw more of his fly balls go for home runs in 2012 than he did in 2011, which could help explain why his numbers dropped overall. His FIP was not terrible, notably better than Kendrick’s despite Kendrick’s better numbers using more traditional stats.

So maybe he really did just get extremely unlucky in 2012.

Maybe not, too.

This suggests that the Phillies are in serious talks with Texas about acquiring Michael Young.

This suggests that Texas might pay more than half of the $16 million that Young is owed in 2013.

This suggests that Schwimer might be the reliever the Phillies would be most willing to part with in a deal for Young.

After being bad defensively at third for three straight years, Young advanced to atrocious in 2012 in limited time. He played just 215 innings at the hot corner last season. Overall, he posted a -2.4 WAR as calculated by Baseball-Reference for the season in 2012 and a -1.4 WAR as calculated by FanGraphs.

This suggests the Phillies have a five-man list for center field that includes Bourn, Hamilton, Curtis Granderson, Ben Revere and Dexter Fowler.

Of those, Hamilton, Granderson and Fowler would be terrible defensive players in center.

This suggests Hamilton is very close to going to Seattle.

This suggests that Nate Schierholtz has agreed to a one-year, $2.25 million deal with the Cubs.

The Rule 5 Draft started this morning at 10 AM. Look for the Phillies to pick up a starting third baseman, a starting center fielder and an eighth inning guy. Just kidding. But not as much as I wish I was.

Update: The Phillies traded Worley and Trevor May to the Twins for Ben Revere.

Ain’t that a Shane

As recent posts have mentioned, there were two big things that went wrong for the Phillies pitching staff in 2012.

The first was that Halladay led the group of Halladay, Hamels and Lee to a miserable year in which they were far less successful than they had been in previous years.

The second was that the guys in the rotation other than Halladay, Lee, Hamels and the new addition Papelbon, combined to be exceptionally average in 2012 relative to the rest of the NL.

The Phillies used 24 pitchers in 2012. Here’s what the 20 that weren’t Halladay, Hamels, Lee or Papelbon did:

Kendrick 37 25 159.33 3.90 1.27 1.3
Blanton 21 20 133.33 4.59 1.19 -0.1
Worley 23 23 133 4.20 1.51 0.7
Bastardo 65 0 52 4.33 1.27 -0.2
Schwimer 35 0 34.33 4.46 1.34 -0.1
Cloyd 6 6 33 4.91 1.21 0
Qualls 35 0 31.33 4.60 1.53 -0.3
Horst 32 0 31.33 1.15 1.12 0.8
Valdes 27 1 31 2.90 0.74 0.6
Diekman 32 0 27.33 3.95 1.65 -0.4
Savery 19 0 25 5.40 1.36 -0.4
Rosenberg 22 1 25 6.12 1.28 -0.5
Lindblom 26 0 23.33 4.63 1.54 -0.5
Aumont 18 0 14.66 3.68 1.29 0.1
Contreras 17 0 13.66 5.27 1.17 -0.3
De Fratus 13 0 10.66 3.38 1.12 0
Herndon 5 0 7.66 4.70 1.43 0
Sanches 6 0 6.33 9.95 2.37 -0.3
Stutes 6 0 5.66 6.35 1.94 -0.3
Brummett 1 0 0.66 0.00 3.00 0
Group Total 446 76 798.6 4.26 1.32 0.1

Combined bWAR of 0.1 from 20 players is a problem. Kendrick at 1.3 is the only guy above one. NL pitchers overall threw to a 4.26 ERA with a 1.31 ratio for the season in 2012, which is almost identical to the 4.26 ERA and 1.32 ratio put up by the group.

The group struck out hitters at a slightly higher rate than the NL average, 8.3 per nine for the group compared to 7.7 for the league. They allowed the same 3.1 walks per nine as the NL average and gave up a few more home runs — 1.15 per nine compared to 1.0 for the league. 8.8 hits per nine compared to a league average of 8.7.

So they were a very average group. And the Phillies needed a lot more from them given that the combined contribution of Halladay, Hamels, Lee and Papelbon was way off in 2012 compared to their recent seasons.

This says Shane Victorino and the Red Sox agreed to a three-year, $39 million deal.

The article linked above suggests that possibility that Boston may be considering playing Victorino in center and trading Jacoby Ellsbury.

No idea what went on with Wilton Lopez, but Lopez has been traded to the Rockies for right-handed pitchers Alex White and Alex Gillingham. Huh?

This suggests that Minnesota might consider trading Ben Revere.

This suggests that Jeff Keppinger could get $13 million or more over three years, and that the Yankees really want him.

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