John Mayberry, Shane Victorino and Ben Revere have all gotten at least 296 plate appearances in each of the last two years. Here’s how some of their numbers from FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference compare:
| PA | wOBA | CF innings | UZR/150 in CF | bWAR | fWAR | ||
| Revere ’11 | 481 | 267/310/309 | .278 | 776 1/3 | 15.1 | 0.7 | 2.0 |
| Revere ’12 | 553 | 294/333/342 | .300 | 309 | -2.1 | 2.4 | 3.4 |
| Revere career | 1064 | 278/319/323 | .287 | 1123 1/3 | 9.2 | - | - |
| Victorino ’11 | 586 | 279/355/491 | .368 | 1150 2/3 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 5.9 |
| Victorino ’12 | 666 | 255/321/383 | .310 | 950 | -2.4 | 2.4 | 3.3 |
| Victorino career | 4295 | 275/341/430 | .338 | 6571 2/3 | 3.1 | - | - |
| Mayberry ’11 | 296 | 273/341/513 | .368 | 246 2/3 | -5.6 | 1.6 | 2.5 |
| Mayberry ’12 | 479 | 245/301/395 | .303 | 474 1/3 | -20.7 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| Mayberry career | 848 | 254/313/448 | .329 | 728 | -15.9 | - | - |
Starting with the offense, things don’t look good for Revere. Both Victorino and Mayberry were miserable offensively in 2012, which was the better of the two years for Revere, and both finished with a higher wOBA.
In 2011, there were 175 players across both leagues that got 450 plate appearances. Revere’s wOBA of .278 was better than six of them.
In 2012, his .300 wOBA was 100th of 114 players across both leagues with at least 550 plate appearances.
John Mayberry is far from a great hitter. Revere is .042 behind him in career wOBA, which isn’t a great place to be. FanGraph’s calculation of wOBA, which is what appears on the table, includes stolen bases and accounts for the 74 that Revere has swiped over the past two seasons.
Where he has been better than both Victorino and Mayberry over the past two years is defensively. Revere buries Mayberry. The numbers between Revere and Victorino are closer, about the same in 2012, but Revere’s career UZR/150 of 9.2 is considerably better than Victorino’s.
By WAR calculated by the two sites, neither Mayberry or Revere are able to hang with Victorino’s outstanding 2011 season. Revere comes out ahead against Mayberry in 2012, though, by a lot, and is tied with or better than Victorino by each of the calculations for that season.
Important to remember when you look at Revere’s 2012 numbers, though, is that he played more than twice as many innings defensively in right than he did in center. He played 708 1/3 innings defensively in right for the Twins and 309 in center. As the table above shows, he wasn’t particularly good in center in 2012, putting up an UZR/150 in center of -2.1. He was outstanding in right, though, playing to an UZR/150 in right of 27.2.
He was arguably the best defensive right fielder in baseball in 2012. Of the 28 players across both leagues, nobody who played at least 550 innings defensively in right had a better UZR/150 in right than Revere. If you drop that number down to 300 innings in right, Gregor Blanco (32.8 in 431 1/3 innings in right) and Ben Zobrist (30.2 in 541 1/3 innings in right) were both better.
Anyhow, the point is, in 2012 his outstanding defensive play in right helped him accumulate value and accumulate WAR. Assuming he’s going the be the every day center fielder for the Philies next year, he’s not going to have the chance to accumulate value in right. So let’s hope he brings that kind of defensive production to center.
The Rule 5 Draft is over. The Phillies lost no players and picked up 22-year-old outfielder Ender Inciarte and 26-year-old left-hander pitcher Brendan Lafferty.
Ender Inciarte is a fast, left-handed hitting, good defensive center fielder. He turned 22 in October and hasn’t made it to Double-A yet. No power at all, but he hit .307 with 46 stolen bases between two different minor league teams in 2012. Chances seem good that he will have to be offered back to the Diamondbacks, barring a bunch of injuries.
The Royals drafted Brendan Lafferty in the 18th round of the 2009 draft. He struck out 71 in 60 1/3 innings in Double-A in 2012, but also walked 40 while pitching to a 4.77 ERA. Forty is too many walks to allow in 60 1/3 innings.
This says the Phillies signed right-handed pitcher Zach Miner and left-handed pitcher Cesar Jimenez to minor league deals.
Miner spent four years in the majors with Detroit between 2006 and 2009, throwing to a 4.24 ERA with a 1.46 ratio over 157 appearances, 35 of which were starts. He had Tommy John surgery in June of 2010 and hasn’t been back to the majors since. He doesn’t strike people out. In 2012, he made 27 appearances with three different minor league teams in the Detroit organization, throwing to a 2.79 ERA with a 1.21 ratio.
Jimenez is 28 and he thrown 48 1/3 innings in the majors, all with Seattle, pitching to a 5.40 ERA with a 1.47 ratio. He spent most of 2012 in the PCL, pitching to a 5.24 ERA with a 1.67 ratio over 44 2/3 innings in 26 relief appearances.
December 7th, 2012 on 11:24 am
Oh my. Well. Kinda hoping that the arc of his career is up. Not looking for the big bopper. Still really hoping for a bopper or two this year, but if Revere can get on base and run and catch, we need that too.
December 7th, 2012 on 11:29 am
Would really like to wake up some morning with a third baseman named Headley in red pinstripes.
December 7th, 2012 on 11:40 am
I think the thing that is important to remember is that what the Phillies need is more value from their players (and especially their non-pitchers). That doesn’t necessarily mean more offensive production, cause the non-pitchers produce value in other ways than just through their hitting.
At the same time, the overall value that Revere seems like he will be able to provide is limited given that he looks like he’s a pretty bad offensive player and may always be. At the same time, his overall value may be high, thanks mostly to the elite defense we assume he will provide. Let’s hope so.
December 7th, 2012 on 12:56 pm
As I recall, the early criticism of Bourn was that he would be a fantastic player if he could just steal first base. He did solve that problem. Revere appears to be cast from the same mold.. is it too much to ask that he’s exactly Bourn, 6 years behind?
December 7th, 2012 on 2:12 pm
I will try to do a post sometime next week comparing Revere to the early years of Bourn and maybe Pierre. I think the answer will prove to be that Revere looks like he has a chance to be even better defensively, especially compared to Pierre, but hits for even less power than the light-hitting Pierre and Bourn.
Revere really, really doesn’t have any power. In 2011 and 2012 combined, Polanco’s isolated power was .065. For his career in the majors in over 1,000 plate appearances, Revere’s is .045. In the minors it’s .078. So it’s hard to feel like it’s coming. Pierre with the Phillies last year was at .064 at age 34.
December 7th, 2012 on 2:51 pm
Hard to imagine a thousand at bats without a dinger. Not even one.
December 7th, 2012 on 3:12 pm
I don’t need him to hit for power. I just want him to on-base .400-.450 or so from the leadoff spot and let JRoll hit behind him.
December 7th, 2012 on 3:28 pm
Hope I’m wrong, but I think there’s close to no chance he’s going to on-base .400. He’d need to hit about .340 to do that. No power means there’s no reason at all to walk him ever, because he can’t do worse than single anyway.
December 7th, 2012 on 3:47 pm
Eric, does he bunt for base hits? Or is this a weapon he could add to raise his OBP?
December 7th, 2012 on 3:48 pm
Will he hit at the top of the order, do you think.
December 7th, 2012 on 3:58 pm
Nine bunt hits for singles last year. That’s a lot.
Who knows where he will hit. I would guess he gets a chance to hit one or two against righties at least to start the year. His numbers look the same to me against lefties and righties, but I think Manuel might drop him in the order against lefties.
If Galvis and Kratz are in the lineup, I don’t think you’ll see him hitting eighth much. I would guess he never hits behind Galvis, but if Galvis is playing a lot, that’s its own problem.
December 7th, 2012 on 4:32 pm
So I guess that means we really better get a couple more bats, huh.
December 7th, 2012 on 5:58 pm
I’m eagerly waiting the comparison post next week, but my instinct tells me Revere will be a bona fide leadoff hitter in 2014 or 2015. For 2013, we better find another outfielder and/or third baseman.
December 8th, 2012 on 2:10 pm
I’m seeing that Michael Young has approved the trade. We have a new third baseman. And second and first, too.
December 8th, 2012 on 2:37 pm
Josh Lindblom and a minor league arm go to Texas.
December 8th, 2012 on 8:45 pm
Yup. I think this is another good move for the Phillies. Don’t think we’ll miss Lindblom much and $6 million for a year of Young playing for a new contract could work out well. Obviously not if he was as bad as he was in 2012. But I think he’ll be a lot better than that for the Phils. Let’s hope he can play third.
December 8th, 2012 on 8:45 pm
Well, now. Center and third are covered next year for about 7 million or so? We have unexpected money for the corner, and 8th inning.
Of course, we need a starter now too, huh.
December 9th, 2012 on 12:52 pm
I wanted this trade last spring. I hope it still works out as well as I wanted it to last year. If Cody Ashe has a chance to be the real deal, Young would be a good stopgap. And certainly beats Frandsen or Galvis (both of whom I still like). I’m not thrilled with the choice of Lindblom in the trade but I’ll get over it.
The infield is probably set now – Howard, Utley, Rollins, Young, Frandsen, Galvis, Ruiz, Kratz. Some fill-in guy backing up Kratz for 6 weeks or so.
The outfield still needs some help – Player To Be Named Later, Revere, Brown, Nix, Mayberry or Rule5Guy. If PTBNL is Mayberry or Rule5Guy, it’s still going to be a rough season.
And of course, now we need more bullpen help to go with our need for more starter depth.
December 9th, 2012 on 2:36 pm
Oh man, Jim. You’re so right about the OF. There has to be someone yet to be obtained who can hit 20+ dingers.
December 9th, 2012 on 11:44 pm
@Jim: “I don’t need him to hit for power. I just want him to on-base .400-.450 or so from the leadoff spot and let JRoll hit behind him.”
First, don’t we want him to be a good overall hitter, in which case it would help to have some power?
Secondly, with his low walk rate, in order to get on base at a .400 clip he would need a .364 batting average.
For a .450 OBP he would need a .418 batting average.
Don’t get me wrong, I like the trade, but we need to keep expectations reasonable.
And by the way, his walk rate is low in spite of him being pretty disciplined, but pitchers pound the strike zone because they’re more concerned about him getting on by a walk then they are of him getting an extra base hit.
Most of his value, at least in the near term, will come from his fielding, and to a lesser extent, his base running.
December 10th, 2012 on 8:10 am
With his stealing and baserunning, he’s in scoring position everywhere except home plate. So it doesn’t bother me if he’s a singles machine.
.. I do realize that an OBP of .400 might be asking a bit much though
December 10th, 2012 on 9:41 am
Still like the trade, but the thing that worries me about Revere as a hitter is that not only does he not have any power, he doesn’t have any chance to develop any power.
He can maybe raise his walk rate a little. Some years he might hit for a high average. But he’s always going to be severely limited in terms of what he can do offensively.
Last year, for example, he hit .294. I believe he can hit .294 again, maybe better. But using almost any measure, he was a well below average offensive player even last year.
So again, let’s hope he’s really, really good at defense.