Quick — across both leagues, who’s the player who has hurt his team the most on the bases over the past three seasons? Hint: if you’re a Phillies fan, you probably saw him hobbling around the bases quite a bit in 2012.
The bad news is he wasn’t coming off of a major achilles injury in 2010 or 2011.
Here are Ryan Howard’s base running runs above average as calculated by FanGraphs over the past three seasons:
| Year | Base Running | Rank MLB players |
| 2010 | -7.1 | 946 of 948 |
| 2011 | -9.3 | 935 of 936 |
| 2012 | -5.6 | 952 of 962 |
| ’10 to ’12 | -22.0 | 1399 of 1399 |
Howard’s -5.6 in 2012 was his best mark of the three years, but it’s hard to see that as a mark of much hope. Howard got just 292 plate appearances in ’12 — less than half of what he got in ’10 or ’11. If he accumulated base running runs above (below) average at his 2012 rate over 600 plate appearances, he would have been at about -11.5 for the year.
No doubt about it that Howard was coming off of a major injury in 2012. Less sure about how much that injury could have been impacting him in 2010 and 2011.
Over the last three years, there have only been five players whose total base running runs below average has been worse than -15.8 overall — David Ortiz (-19.7), Billy Butler (-19.7), Prince Fielder (-19.8), Paul Konerko (-21.5) and Howard (-22.0).
Even with only about half a season of plate appearances in 2012, Howard’s base running from 2010 to 2012 is still worse than Phillie-poster-boy-for-bad-on-the-bases Pat Burrell’s horrendous base running during Burrell’s worst years.
| Year | Base Running | Year | Base running |
| Hoawrd 2010 | -7.1 | Burrell 2005 | -8.8 |
| Howard 2011 | -9.3 | Burrell 2006 | -5.3 |
| Howard 2012 | -5.6 | Burrell 2007 | -4.2 |
| Howard ’10 to ’12 | -22.0 | Burrell ’05 to ’07 | -18.3 |
At the height of his base running suck, 2005 to 2007, Burrell got 1,834 plate appearances with a total base running runs below average of -18.3. Over the last three years, Howard has 1,556 plate appearances and a base running runs below average of -22.0.
There’s not a whole ton of silver lining on the Ryan Howard base running front, but there are guys who have been worse on the bases than he has in recent history. Looking at three-year periods going back to 2000, here’s the player who had the best and worst base running runs above average as calculated by FanGraphs:
| Years | Worst | Best | ||
| 2010-2012 | Howard | -22.0 | Michael Bourn | 28.6 |
| 2009-2011 | Konerko (tie) | -20.7 | Bourn | 33.9 |
| Carlos Lee (tie) | -20.7 | |||
| 2008-2010 | Fielder | -23.4 | Bourn | 25.0 |
| 2007-2009 | Kendry Morales | -20.1 | Rollins | 26.6 |
| 2006-2008 | Bengie Molina | -18.9 | Ichiro | 28.5 |
| 2005-2007 | Bengie Molina | -19.7 | Figgins | 29.1 |
| 2004-2006 | Luis Gonzalez | -20.5 | Crawford | 25.7 |
| 2003-2005 | Alex Gonzalez | -22.5 | Beltran | 29.5 |
| 2002-2004 | Alex Gonzalez | -22.3 | Beltran | 30.6 |
| 2001-2003 | Alex Gonzalez | -17.8 | Beltran | 24.1 |
| 2000-2002 | Alex Gonzalez | -10.0 | Jeter | 15.4 |
So from 2008 to 2010, Prince Fielder (-23.4) was worse than Howard (-22.0) ’10 to ’12. Prior to that, you’ve got to go back to Alex Gonzalez (the other one) from ’03 to ’05 to find a three-year period where someone out-worsened Howard’s ’10 to ’12 over a three-year period. Gonzalez also did it ’02 to ’04. Alex Gonzalez had a whole bunch of problems trying to steal bases from 2000 to 2005, playing for five different teams and getting caught 24 times, picked off nine and stealing just 34 bases.
At least Howard doesn’t get caught stealing. He’s got 12 stolen bases for his career and has been caught just four times (picked off three).
On the other side of the table, Jimmy Rollins was the best running in baseball by base running runs above average from 2007 to 2009 with 26.6. And again, Michael Bourn demonstrates that he brings a lot of value with what he does with his defense and on the bases as he appears atop the list for 2008 to 2010, 2009 to 2011 and 2010 to 2012.
From 2008 to 2012, Bourn’s base running runs above average is 44.7. That leads all players across both leagues and nobody else is close. Ian Kinsler is second at 32.5 and Victorino third at 31.0.
Todd Zolecki suggests the chances the Phillies will land Josh Hamilton are pretty slim.
In the same piece, he also suggests the Rangers would have traded young third baseman Mike Olt for Hamels last year, but that he’s not sure they would trade him for Cliff Lee at this point.
The deadline for setting the 40-man roster ahead of the Rule V draft was last night. Matt Gelb speculated on who the Phillies might protect in this article.
The Phillies added four players to their 40-man roster in advance of the December 6 Rule V draft, including outfielder Zach Collier and pitchers Trevor May, Ethan Martin and Jonathan Pettibone. They now have 38 players on their 40-man roster, including six outfielders, five of which are left-handed.
This suggests the Phillies may have interest in free agent Koji Uehara. The 37-year-old right-handed reliever threw to a 1.75 ERA with an 0.64 ratio for Texas in 2012, striking out 43 in 36 innings. He missed about two months last year with a problem with his right lat. He returned at the end of August and made 17 appearances between that time and the end of the season, throwing to a 1.23 ERA over 14 2/3 innings while striking out 21 and holding opponents to a .160 on-base percentage.


November 21st, 2012 on 2:13 pm
And there’s that Bourn guy topping a chart again.
November 21st, 2012 on 2:44 pm
I know. The bad news is that he has hit more than five runs in a season once (he hit nine last year) and is left-handed.
Guess you can’t have everything.
I do think he’s likely to help a team a more in 2013 than BJ Upton, who will probably hit more than five home runs and not be left-handed.
November 21st, 2012 on 4:00 pm
Howard may be a problem on the bases, but he is 240 and has never been fast. Is he really THE problem? That’s kinda like saying the guys ostensibly with speed are the problem with our lack of power, isn’t it?
November 22nd, 2012 on 9:46 am
He’s definitely a big part of the reason that the Phillies aren’t as good at base running that they used to be. At least the way base running measures it, he’s been a lot worse over the last three years than he was earlier in his career.
Base running, or what Howard does on the bases, clearly isn’t the Phillies’s biggest problem.
November 23rd, 2012 on 2:04 pm
Josh Fields. Was kind of hoping for more by now.
November 24th, 2012 on 3:43 pm
Hopefully they have more moves in mind.
I’m actually glad to have Fields. I agree he doesn’t solve all of the problems the team has at this point.
November 24th, 2012 on 4:16 pm
Amaro interview sounds like he has some trades out there possible.
November 24th, 2012 on 7:57 pm
I’m sure there’s going to be something. Hopefully more than one move. Don’t know how long it will be.
I don’t think there’s much chance we see Fields at third for the Phillies any time soon, unless there’s an injury and the Phillies get even more desperate. He’s got an interesting bat, but he’s been bad there defensively in his time in the majors.
November 25th, 2012 on 2:21 pm
I like how high he went in the draft. Maybe he’s a late bloomer. A guy can hope, huh?
November 25th, 2012 on 9:09 pm
Yep. Fields was supposed to be really good. He also hit 23 home runs for the White Sox in 418 plate appearances at age 24. That’s good. Been kinda down hill since then.
But you can hope. But we should also home that Amaro and his guys have another plan.
November 26th, 2012 on 10:21 am
I like the Fields signing as a depth move. Not a lot of downside there.
I knew Howard was bad on the bases, but wow. Just…wow.