Comments on: The votes aren’t all counted yet, but I think we can agree that Adam Eaton was not the answer

By: egrissom

egrissom — Wed, 07 Nov 2012 13:59:13 +0000

I hear you on the left/right thing on Bourn and Upton. I do think Bourn is the better overall player, though. The Phillies have enough problems offensively I think they don’t want to focus too much on left/right, especially given how few impact free agents there are available.

My guess is they don’t get either of those guys.

By: GregA

GregA — Tue, 06 Nov 2012 20:39:57 +0000

Bourn doesn’t fit into this lineup too well, just because he’s another left-handed bat. Upton seems to make more sense. I wouldn’t mind Pagan either if he isn’t insanely overpriced.

By: Jim

Jim — Tue, 06 Nov 2012 19:54:06 +0000

I find it unlikely that Howard, Utley, Mayberry-Ruf, and Brown-Schierholz will combine for 138 HRs. But it’s plausible that some of them might not even start. I guess we’ll need to see who we get.

I have a feeling we’ll fill CF first, though. We can’t even fake it there. I’ve seen us listed as the favorite for BJ Upton, who’s considered the consolation prize if you can’t afford Bourn.

By: GregA

GregA — Tue, 06 Nov 2012 19:44:20 +0000

Yes, he has good speed. Not quite Billy Hamilton speed, but still an 80 on a 20-80 scouting scale speed. He never switch hit or played shortstop prior to being drafted by the Phils in 2011, so the fact that he even did as well as he did from the left side was pretty amazing. His numbers from the right (natural) side are sick.

As for power, he could hit 8-12 when he matures. Not too bad for a shortstop who gets on base a ton and steals bases. The bad news is, IIRC, his one home run was of the inside the park variety.

By: egrissom

egrissom — Tue, 06 Nov 2012 18:51:37 +0000

I’m pretending the Roman Quinn thing isn’t true, just for the sake of my sanity. Roman Quinn is 19 years old with one career home run, which came in 309 plate appearances in the New York Penn League.

Never seen him play, but I’m going to go ahead and guess he has good speed, what with the 30 SB in 66 games and the fact that he has more career triples than doubles and home runs combined in his limited time in the minors.

By: GregA

GregA — Tue, 06 Nov 2012 18:47:59 +0000

There is certainly a lot of time for things to go wrong with Biddle. You always worry about injury for young pitching arms, and he won’t be as good as Cole Hamels even if he is healthy. He just doesn’t have that sort of stuff. Best case scenario would have him as a #2 starter on a decent team, #3 starter on a good team. But, as you say, there is a lot of time between Reading (where he’ll start next year) and Philadelphia (where he will hopefully be toward the end of 2014).

I also agree with your point on not trading away prospects if you are trying to rebuild. However, the point of the minor league system is to make the major league team better. If that means graduating some guys to the lineup, great. If it means trading some of them away for established players, that works for me too. As long as we aren’t giving away tons of value for a complimentary piece (see Pence, Hunter).

All that being said, the Phillies minor system isn’t horrible. They have a ton of starting pitching depth. None of the guys project to be top of the rotation stars, but they all project to be serviceable mid-rotation starters, which is something that has a ton of value in today’s baseball economy. What the system lacks is any position players of impact at the upper levels. The best position prospect in the system, to me, is Roman Quinn. He’s the one guy in the system with a chance to be a superstar, but he just finished his first season at Williamsport and is at best three years away from Philadelphia.

By: egrissom

egrissom — Tue, 06 Nov 2012 18:46:20 +0000

Somehow that didn’t do it.

In 2008, Howard, Utley and the two corner OF (Burrell and Werth) combined to hit 138 home runs. If you tell me Howard, Utley and the two corner OF are going to hit 138 again in 2013, I’d feel better.

I’d even take 128. About 80 seems more likely. And that might be high.

If you could Pence and Pierre as the two corner OF for last year, in 2012 the Phillies saw Howard, Utley and the two corner OF combine to hit 43 home runs.

By: Jim

Jim — Tue, 06 Nov 2012 18:37:48 +0000

If it makes you feel better, 3B was awful in 2008 too.

By: egrissom

egrissom — Tue, 06 Nov 2012 18:20:32 +0000

I agree that the FA options at 3B aren’t real impressive. But you don’t have to be a superstar at third to be a better option than Freddy Galvis who, to reiterate, has a .292 on-base percentage in the minors, a .254 on-base percentage in the majors and isn’t a third baseman.

Also, I think it’s possible the Phillies could get enough FA help at other offensive positions that they would be okay at third. I just don’t think it’s likely to happen.

Another option would seem to be to trade an existing guy with a huge contract. Not saying it’s likely, but with four guys (Howard, Halladay, Hamels and Lee) all due to make $19.5 million or more in 2013, it seems possible.

By: DaMannse

DaMannse — Tue, 06 Nov 2012 18:04:21 +0000

Oh. Yes. The other thing is that they have to know that their 2012 all-of-baseball-leading attendance numbers are on borrowed time if they do not do something significant to improve the team. An awful lot of folks bought an awful lot of tickets and got an awful lot of not much in return. So part of the “how much do they spend” has to be considered as part of the attendance income equation. Sales of jerseys and paraphenalia also dropped like a stone last year.

I don’t know how much they are willing to spend, but I have an idea of how much less income there will be if they repeat last winter’s acquisition excitement level.