Here’s the Baseball-Reference calculated combined WAR for pitchers who have made at least ten starts for the team over the past five seasons:
| Pitcher | GS | # Relief appearances | WAR | WAR/GS |
| Halladay | 90 | 0 | 17.6 | .196 |
| Lee | 74 | 0 | 13.5 | .182 |
| Happ | 30 | 16 | 5.0 | .167 |
| Oswalt | 35 | 1 | 5.2 | .149 |
| Hamels | 160 | 1 | 21.4 | .134 |
| Worley | 46 | 7 | 4.4 | .096 |
| Moyer | 77 | 5 | 2.7 | .035 |
| Blanton | 100 | 5 | 2.5 | .025 |
| Myers | 40 | 8 | 0.8 | .020 |
| Kendrick | 103 | 41 | 1.7 | .017 |
| Eaton | 19 | 2 | -1.2 | -.063 |
Important to remember is that the WAR calculation includes games pitched in relief. So, for example, the WAR for Kendrick over the last five seasons includes his 41 appearances out of the bullpen. His .017 for WAR/GS is his total WAR in all appearances divided by the number of games he started (not the total number of games in which he pitched).
The 11 pitchers above combined to make 774 of the 810 starts for the Phillies over the last five seasons. Not appearing on the list are guys who made fewer than ten starts, including Pedro Martinez (9), Chan Ho Park (7), Tyler Cloyd (6), Rodrigo Lopez (5), Antonio Bastardo (5), Raul Valdes (1), Andrew Carpenter (1), Nelson Figueroa (1) and BJ Rosenberg (1). Those 36 total starts plus the 774 for the 11 guys above gets you to 810.
Hamels is the guy who has made the most starts for the Phillies over the past five years with 160. And he’s been very good. After that, though, there are two guys in Blanton and Kendrick who have gotten a ton of starts over the past five seasons without being very good.
Kendrick is second in starts over the last five seasons with 103. His best year for WAR was 2007 (which doesn’t count for the table above as it was more than five years ago). In 2007, Kendrick made 20 appearances for the Phillies, all starts, going 10-4 with a 3.87 and putting up a WAR of 2.1. Kendrick was terrible in 2008 and finished the year with a -1.7 WAR. In the four years since his combined WAR has been just 3.4 — 3.4 + (-1.7) = 1.7, his mark for the past five years combined.
Blanton has made 105 appearances over the last five years for the Phillies, including 100 starts (more than anyone but Kendrick or Hamels). In the five seasons that Blanton pitched all or part of the year with the Phillies, he had a Baseball-Reference calculated WAR better than 0.1 only once. His best year with the Phillies was 2009 — he made 31 starts that year with a 4.05 ERA and a 1.32 ratio, posting a 2.4 WAR for the season. He had a -0.2 WAR in 29 appearances with the Phillies in 2010 and a -0.1 WAR in 21 appearances with them in 2012. He threw just 41 1/3 innings in 2011, all with the Phils, and put up a 0.0 WAR for that season.
The point here is that Blanton and Kendrick have pitched a lot for the Phillies over the past five years, making about as many starts (203) as Halladay, Lee and Worley (210). Overall, they’ve made about 25.1% of the starts for the Phillies over the past five seasons. And they haven’t been very good.
And while Blanton doesn’t have much of a chance to be not very good for the Phillies again in 2013, Kendrick does.
Gone also from the mix of the last five years are Happ and Oswalt. Both of those pitchers didn’t pitch a ton for the Phillies over the past five years, but put up good numbers overall in their time with the team.
Happ’s 4.83 ERA since he left the Phillies makes it easy to forget that he was great for the Phillies in 2009, going 12-4 with a 2.93 ERA and a 1.23 ratio in his 35 appearances (23 starts). He led the team in WAR for pitchers that year at 4.0. Hamels made 32 starts for the Phillies in ’09, finishing the year with a WAR of 1.7.
Oswalt threw to a 2.96 ERA in 36 appearances (35 starts) with the Phils between 2010 and 2011. He appeared in just 13 games for the Phillies in 2010 (12 starts), but managed to post a WAR of 3.2, third best on the staff behind Halladay and Hamels.
This suggests Josh Hamilton wants seven years, $175 million.
Amaro mentions Adam Morgan favorably in this article. Morgan is a 22-year-old lefty the Phillies took in the third round of the 2011 draft. He made 27 appearances between Clearwater and Reading in 2012, 26 of which were starts, throwing to a 3.35 ERA with a 1.11 ratio and striking out 169 in 158 2/3 innings.
November 6th, 2012 on 9:50 am
I’d be interested to see how the top three compare to the rest of the league’s top 3 over the time span. My guess would be that it would be favorable to the Phils.
I like Morgan a lot. In my opinion, he’s the 2nd best left-hander in the Phillies system, behind Jesse Biddle (2010 first round pick). He’s also the most likely be traded this off-season if the Phillies make any moves, which may be why Amaro is talking him up.
November 6th, 2012 on 11:17 am
It seems like there’s still a lot of time for stuff to go wrong with Biddle, given that he hasn’t pitched above Clearwater yet. Given his Philadelphia roots, I think it’s pretty likely that he’s going to get a chance with the Phillies before it’s over.
I certainly don’t know, but I would guess the Phillies don’t trade Morgan. We’ll see. I think any model for building the future that has them trading away from what’s already a less than fantastic farm system is troubled. Basically I think it’s just going to come down to how much money they are willing to spend. They’ve got a bunch of holes that they can’t fill in-house and not a whole ton to trade away — either they’re going to pay to bring in new guys or hope to get lucky rolling the dice on unproven players they already have.
Worst idea so far is Galvis at third base. Really not optimistic on that one. Have I mentioned the .292 on-base percentage in the minors lately? Or that he’s not a third baseman? Those are some of my bigger issues.
November 6th, 2012 on 12:18 pm
Those last two paragraphs don’t work too well together, Eric. If we want someone not named Galvis or Frandsen to be our starting 3B in 2012, I think it’s likely we’d have to trade a Morgan or someone like that to get it. Not much in FA. I wouldn’t mind giving Scutaro 1-2 yrs, but he’s so much like Polanco that I worry he’d end up a lot like Polanco.
November 6th, 2012 on 12:58 pm
The money thing still confuses me. Why would they spend the hellacious money on the guys they are spending it on, at the age these guys are, and then go cheap with the guys needed to flesh out the team and provide a legitimatre shot at a parade? One year of luxury tax for all the marbles? Or avoid the tax and waste the enormous salaries for two years in a row? I do not see the economic logic of not going for it.
Having said that, 7 and $175 million? Nawwwwwwwwwww.
November 6th, 2012 on 1:04 pm
Oh. Yes. The other thing is that they have to know that their 2012 all-of-baseball-leading attendance numbers are on borrowed time if they do not do something significant to improve the team. An awful lot of folks bought an awful lot of tickets and got an awful lot of not much in return. So part of the “how much do they spend” has to be considered as part of the attendance income equation. Sales of jerseys and paraphenalia also dropped like a stone last year.
I don’t know how much they are willing to spend, but I have an idea of how much less income there will be if they repeat last winter’s acquisition excitement level.
November 6th, 2012 on 1:20 pm
I agree that the FA options at 3B aren’t real impressive. But you don’t have to be a superstar at third to be a better option than Freddy Galvis who, to reiterate, has a .292 on-base percentage in the minors, a .254 on-base percentage in the majors and isn’t a third baseman.
Also, I think it’s possible the Phillies could get enough FA help at other offensive positions that they would be okay at third. I just don’t think it’s likely to happen.
Another option would seem to be to trade an existing guy with a huge contract. Not saying it’s likely, but with four guys (Howard, Halladay, Hamels and Lee) all due to make $19.5 million or more in 2013, it seems possible.
November 6th, 2012 on 1:37 pm
If it makes you feel better, 3B was awful in 2008 too.
November 6th, 2012 on 1:46 pm
Somehow that didn’t do it.
In 2008, Howard, Utley and the two corner OF (Burrell and Werth) combined to hit 138 home runs. If you tell me Howard, Utley and the two corner OF are going to hit 138 again in 2013, I’d feel better.
I’d even take 128. About 80 seems more likely. And that might be high.
If you could Pence and Pierre as the two corner OF for last year, in 2012 the Phillies saw Howard, Utley and the two corner OF combine to hit 43 home runs.
November 6th, 2012 on 1:47 pm
There is certainly a lot of time for things to go wrong with Biddle. You always worry about injury for young pitching arms, and he won’t be as good as Cole Hamels even if he is healthy. He just doesn’t have that sort of stuff. Best case scenario would have him as a #2 starter on a decent team, #3 starter on a good team. But, as you say, there is a lot of time between Reading (where he’ll start next year) and Philadelphia (where he will hopefully be toward the end of 2014).
I also agree with your point on not trading away prospects if you are trying to rebuild. However, the point of the minor league system is to make the major league team better. If that means graduating some guys to the lineup, great. If it means trading some of them away for established players, that works for me too. As long as we aren’t giving away tons of value for a complimentary piece (see Pence, Hunter).
All that being said, the Phillies minor system isn’t horrible. They have a ton of starting pitching depth. None of the guys project to be top of the rotation stars, but they all project to be serviceable mid-rotation starters, which is something that has a ton of value in today’s baseball economy. What the system lacks is any position players of impact at the upper levels. The best position prospect in the system, to me, is Roman Quinn. He’s the one guy in the system with a chance to be a superstar, but he just finished his first season at Williamsport and is at best three years away from Philadelphia.
November 6th, 2012 on 1:51 pm
I’m pretending the Roman Quinn thing isn’t true, just for the sake of my sanity. Roman Quinn is 19 years old with one career home run, which came in 309 plate appearances in the New York Penn League.
Never seen him play, but I’m going to go ahead and guess he has good speed, what with the 30 SB in 66 games and the fact that he has more career triples than doubles and home runs combined in his limited time in the minors.
November 6th, 2012 on 2:44 pm
Yes, he has good speed. Not quite Billy Hamilton speed, but still an 80 on a 20-80 scouting scale speed. He never switch hit or played shortstop prior to being drafted by the Phils in 2011, so the fact that he even did as well as he did from the left side was pretty amazing. His numbers from the right (natural) side are sick.
As for power, he could hit 8-12 when he matures. Not too bad for a shortstop who gets on base a ton and steals bases. The bad news is, IIRC, his one home run was of the inside the park variety.
November 6th, 2012 on 2:54 pm
I find it unlikely that Howard, Utley, Mayberry-Ruf, and Brown-Schierholz will combine for 138 HRs. But it’s plausible that some of them might not even start. I guess we’ll need to see who we get.
I have a feeling we’ll fill CF first, though. We can’t even fake it there. I’ve seen us listed as the favorite for BJ Upton, who’s considered the consolation prize if you can’t afford Bourn.
November 6th, 2012 on 3:39 pm
Bourn doesn’t fit into this lineup too well, just because he’s another left-handed bat. Upton seems to make more sense. I wouldn’t mind Pagan either if he isn’t insanely overpriced.
November 7th, 2012 on 8:59 am
I hear you on the left/right thing on Bourn and Upton. I do think Bourn is the better overall player, though. The Phillies have enough problems offensively I think they don’t want to focus too much on left/right, especially given how few impact free agents there are available.
My guess is they don’t get either of those guys.