There are several different ways to calculate WAR, but no matter which language you choose, the non-pitchers for the Phillies were cause for concern in 2012.
The table below shows the WAR by position for the Phillies over the past five seasons as calculated by FanGraphs. Next to each WAR is the NL Rank for the team that year at the position.
Please note: WAR as calculated by FanGraphs differs, often dramatically, from WAR as calculated by Baseball-Reference. The WAR values in the table below are from FanGraphs, but the WAR values discussed below the table come primarily from Baseball-Reference. Links to recent interesting articles on the differences between WAR as calculated by the two sites are at the bottom of the post.
| Position | ’12 | ’11 | ’10 | ’09 | ’08 |
| C | 7.1 (2) | 2.6 (9) | 5.3 (3) | 3.3 (3) | 2.2 (10) |
| SS | 4.9 (2) | 3.9 (4) | 2.3 (10) | 3.2 (6) | 5.7 (4) |
| 2B | 3.7 (4) | 3.4 (3) | 6.7 (2) | 7.5 (1) | 8.2 (1) |
| CF | 2.7 (10) | 8.4 (2) | 3.9 (12) | 4.3 (8) | 4.4 (7) |
| LF | 2.8 (11) | 1.2 (15) | 2.4 (10) | 4.6 (5) | 2.8 (10) |
| 3B | 2.4 (11) | 2.5 (10) | 3.3 (7) | 1.5 (11) | 2.6 (11) |
| RF | 1.2 (15) | 2.2 (14) | 6.2 (3) | 5.9 (1) | 5.7 (4) |
| 1B | -0.8 (16) | 1.1 (13) | 2.0 (10) | 4.7 (5) | 3.0 (7) |
So there were three of the eight positions at which the Phillies were better than tenth in the 16-team National League.
Four seasons ago, in 2009, the Phillies were in the top half of the league at every position other than third base.
First the good:
At catcher, the Buster Posey-led Giants are the only team to put up a better overall WAR than the Phillies in 2012. The Phillies have been in the top three at the position in three of the last four years. In 2011, Ruiz recorded his worst dWAR of the five seasons (as calculated by Baseball-Reference) at 0.8. It was also his worst offensive season of the past three as he slugged just .383. In 2008, Ruiz was terrible offensively, hitting .219 in his 373 plate appearances as the Phils were tenth in the league at WAR at the position.
The Phils were also second in the league at FanGraphs-calculated WAR at short in 2012, topped only by the Nationals. There’s really only been one bad year for the team at the position over the last five seasons. In 2010, Rollins got less than 400 plate appearances for the only time in the last 12 seasons. Wilson Valdez fared okay trying to pick up the slack, but Juan Castro was a lot less impressive as he on-based .250 in his 101 plate appearances as a shortstop for the year. FanGraphs calculated WAR for Rollins for 2012 is much higher than Baseball-Reference’s. FanGraphs has him at 4.9, which ties him for 27th among non-pitchers across both leagues. Baseball-Reference calculates his WAR at 2.3, which ties him for 106th. The chart above reflects the FanGraph numbers, which suggest he was an elite player in 2012. Again, this is one of the three positions at which the Phillies were non-terrible in 2012 and there is disagreement about how good their primary player at the position actually was.
At second base, the Phillies have been in the top four for each of the past five years. Utley’s WAR as calculated by Baseball-Reference topped out at 8.8 in 2008. He’s likely never going back up there again, but his work at the position has been enough to keep the Phils in the top quarter of the NL over the last several years. Also, as a side note — in 2008, Utley and his 8.8 WAR (second-best in baseball) finished 14th in NL MVP voting. Howard’s WAR that year was 1.5 and he finished second. Pujols won it, and should have, but Utley should have been a lot higher than 14th.
After catcher, second and short, things get real ugly, real fast.
Center field was the next best position for the Phils in 2012 and they were tenth in the league there. Victorino was a monster in 2011, putting up a (Baseball-Reference) overall WAR of 5.2 in the best year of his career. He was way off that pace in 2012, though, and Mayberry was pretty bad after he left. The Phillies seem to have no in-house solution to what is now a big problem in center field.
Eleventh in left. Tenth or worse for the third straight year. 2009 is the only year of the last five that the Phillies have been non-terrible overall at the position. In ’09, Ibanez put up the best WAR (Baseball-Reference) of his last six seasons at 2.7. It was the only year of the last six where his dWAR has been better than -1 (it was -0.8). In 2010 he was bad for the Phillies and in 2011 he was terrible — a dWAR of -3.1 and an oWAR of just 0.1. Juan Pierre was the guy who got most of the time in left in 2012, the first year after Ibanez left. His overall WAR for the year was 1.9, good enough for fourth-best on the team among the non-pitchers, but not enough to lead the Phils anywhere better than eleventh.
They were also eleventh at third base, the fourth year of the last five in which they have been tenth or worse. Polanco was very solid in 2010, putting up a (Baseball-Reference) WAR of 3.1. In 2011, his dWAR stayed about the same as 2010 (1.2 in ’11, 1.4 in ’10), but his oWAR dropped from 1.9 to 0.7 as he hit 277/335/339 with just 19 extra-base hits in 523 plate appearances. Polanco got significant time at third in ’12, putting up an oWAR of 0, a dWAR of 0.4 and losing significant time to Kevin Frandsen. Frandsen’s WAR of 1.5 (in just 210 plate appearances) was good enough for fifth-best among the team’s non-pitchers, but not good enough to get the Phillies any higher than eleventh relative to the rest of the NL for the season at the position. Feliz got most of the time at third in ’08 and ’09, with some help from Greg Dobbs. Neither did a whole lot and the Phillies were eleventh at the position both years, although Feliz had a good year defensively in ’09, putting up a dWAR of 1.2. Feliz on-based .306 over 1,088 plate appearances for the Phils between 2008 and ’09.
You don’t have to study the right field numbers too carefully to see that the Phillies have struggled to replace Jayson Werth. Led by Werth, the Phils topped the NL in WAR at the position in 2009 and were third in 2010. He signed with the Nationals for the 2011 season and the numbers took a dive. Francisco got the gig to start ’11 and bombed in spectacular fashion, putting up an oWAR of 0.0 and a dWAR of -1.3 and losing the job. Hunter Pence played part of ’11 with the Phils and part of ’12. He posted negative dWARs in both years with better luck offensively. 2.2 (oWAR)/-0.3 (dWAR) in 2011 and 1.2/-1.1 in 2012. Domonic Brown hasn’t inspired a lot of confidence yet he can get the job done in right, either. So far for his career he has an UZR/150 of -21.7 in 871 innings in right to go with his overall batting line of 236/315/388.
First base may be the single biggest problem for the Phillies, where they have committed an enormous amount of money to Ryan Howard. They were 16th of 16 in the NL in 2012 and FanGraphs has them no better than tenth over the last three seasons. Howard was hurt in 2012, but he got 644 plate appearances in 2011 and 620 in 2010 and the Phils didn’t do better than tenth in either year. He has always been terrible at defense, over the last seven seasons his dWARs have ranged from -1 to -2.8, and thanks largely to that he has put an overall WAR better than three just twice in his career. In 2006 he hit 58 home runs with a WAR of 5.0. In 2009 he hit 45 with a WAR of 3.5. In 2012, his oWAR joined his dWAR in negative territory at -0.6. Wigginton was also miserable trying to pick up the slack at the position with Howard missing much of the season, hitting just 235/314/375 for the year with a UZR/150 at first of -8.5 (which is 30th among the 36 players across both leagues who played at least 450 innings at first in 2012).
This article talks about differences in the calculation of WAR by Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs. More on that subject here, as Jimmy Rollins appears on a list of the players whose WAR as calculated by FanGraphs differs dramatically from their WAR as calculated by Baseball-Reference.


October 17th, 2012 on 9:38 am
So all the team needs is for Howard to get back to between a 1 and 2 WAR player, Utley to be healthy all year, Ruiz to continue to defy all logic, Brown to develop into a solid player, Rollins to keep on keepin’ on, and to sign a center fielder, corner outfielder, and third baseman to be successful.
Somehow that doesn’t all seem likely.
October 17th, 2012 on 9:59 am
I think it might just be easier to try to demonstrate that WAR is not useful at all.
Maybe they can get some really good pitchers?
I think the first base problem is the biggest. The Phillies aren’t going to platoon Howard and I am hugely skeptical he will show significant improvement. It’s going to cost them a whole lot to be not very good there for a while. I think it’s pretty clear that a Mayberry/Howard (or Ruf/Howard) platoon at first helps the team more than Howard everyday — but that doesn’t matter cause it’s not going to happen.
The three OF positions plus 3B seem solvable. My thinking is the guys in house combine to be one platoon OF and a good fourth OF. That puts them two short and in dire need of a CF. My guess is that the Phils are thinking of Brown as an everyday guy and the others combining to be a platoon at the other corner. That leaves them one short, but I think they’re really two short.
Ruf and Mayberry both being right-handed is unfortunate. I think it’s pretty clear what the lefties Schierholtz and Pierre are at this point in their careers.
3B they can’t solve in the organization. Galvis at third is going to be a disaster and that sure looks like a strong possibility right now. I don’t have a whole lot of hope for Frandsen, but he did hit .340 in 2012. I’d much rather see him there than Galvis if those are the choices.
At least at the five positions we’re they were awful in 2012, it wasn’t costing them a ton of money to be awful at four of them. That’s not the case at first.
October 17th, 2012 on 11:10 am
In response to my own post and yours, I’ve pretty much written off first base as ever being a productive position again. At least for the next three years. I have hope that in the final year of the contract they may find SOME way to move him.
October 17th, 2012 on 11:38 am
I don’t think there’s much chance they will trade him.
I also don’t think there’s much chance he can be non-terrible defensively at first. I think that means he has to make a ton of offense (on-base .360 with 40 homers?), which he hasn’t done over the past three years.
Even if it’s bad at first, it’s obviously important to the Phillies exactly how bad. It can’t be as bad as it was in ’12 over a full season. Return to ’10/’11 seems most likely, which is not good, but it’s a lot better than 2012. We can hope for better, but I’m having a lot trouble picturing it. I think it involves Howard getting a lot better defensively or putting up an offensive season like he did from ’06-’09. 2009 was a while ago now.
October 17th, 2012 on 11:57 am
Also, if you look at Howard’s UZR/150 at 1B, it’s really going in the wrong direction over the past three years.
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2154&position=1B
2012 was the worst mark of his career by a wide margin. There were 37 players across both leagues that played at least 400 innings at first defensively. Howard’s UZR/150 of -15.6 was 36th and Wigginton’s -8.5 was 31st.
October 17th, 2012 on 4:07 pm
So A-Rod might be on the market. Would you want him? I’m thinking I’d take him at about a 75% discount.
October 17th, 2012 on 4:34 pm
Your numbers are staggering. I had no idea it was this bad.
I’m hoping that this past year for Howard is due to his injury. I don’t think anyone really gets how debilitating an Achilles is. There was absolutely no way he was going to be whole this year, no way at all. Even as hobbled as he was, he was still able to change how the other team had to face the Phillies lineup. And he still drove in runs. We have to remember that right now is only one year from his injury. For a man his size, and the forces placed on that tendon, a year is not enough time.
I’m expecting that his ankle will be somewhere close to normal come springtime and that his injury does not represent a permanent diminishing of his physical capacities. I doubt that he will return to the form he once enjoyed, but I think we can look for a better offensive performance.
That will only be enhanced if there are some other offensive threats on this team. This past year has been abysmal; putting a right handed bat or two after Howard will also help.
I know, I know, he is overpaid. But there is much Amaro can do to make Howard more dangerous, much more. Putting two sticks in the 5 & 6 holes would be huge.
October 17th, 2012 on 4:56 pm
I think the injury was part of it for Howard in 2012. I don’t know how it would make sense to assume he’ll have an overall year in ’13 that was significantly better than 2010 or 2011, though.
ARod is due to be paid about $114 million over the next five years. 25% of that is about $28.5 million. I’m guessing even the Yankees aren’t ready to eat $85.5 million. But, yes, I would take him if they were.
October 17th, 2012 on 7:06 pm
Don’t know. He really looks cooked.
October 18th, 2012 on 1:16 pm
Howard for ARod? I sort of hate the idea, but wondering if it is something RAJ would do.
October 18th, 2012 on 1:31 pm
I’m guessing that one is not going to happen.
I think Howard has been worse overall than ARod for every year of his career except 2006, when ARod was very good and Howard was better. Howard is about 4 1/2 years younger. ARod owed about $114 million over the next five years and Howard about $105 million. No question ARod was better than Howard last year, I think it’s mostly a question of how much worse you think ARod is going to get as he ages.
Maybe the Phils and Yankees could work a three-way deal where they get ARod, the Yankees get Howard and the mystery third team gets to pay them both? Just spitballing.
October 18th, 2012 on 3:36 pm
I had considered that as well Greg.. that would mean Ruf is your starting first baseman though. I for one would like him to have the benefit of (at least part of) a AAA year.
You think the Yanks might want a defensive infielder that can’t hit? We seem to have a surplus supply of those.
October 18th, 2012 on 4:15 pm
Don’t forget marginal relievers. Seems like we’ve got at least a couple of those.
In a Howardless world, I’d guess Mayberry would get more time at first than Ruf in 2013. That wouldn’t work, though, and really dramatically wouldn’t work against righties, so maybe we should be hoping for Ruf.
Not sure it matters much, though. Howard is going to be around for a long time.
On a personal note, 479 more plate appearances for Mayberry in 2013 might be more than I can handle.
October 18th, 2012 on 5:05 pm
I’m rooting for Mayberry to get less than 100, personally.
October 18th, 2012 on 5:22 pm
In a Howard-less world, who drives in the runs? He is still the Big Dog in run production for this team, isn’t he?
October 18th, 2012 on 9:02 pm
Looks like there will be lots of Yankee cast offs, maybe including center field. I’ll pass, thanks.
October 19th, 2012 on 10:41 am
In a Howard-less world, any decent hitter who bats fourth in this lineup. Notice I said decent, not what was being rolled out there at the beginning of this year.
For those that are interested, Keith Law had a brief report on what he has seen on Cody Asche so far in the AFL. He basically said that he was impressed with his ability to hit (currently at .357/.367/.607, although the TEAM is batting .309/.346/.459 to give you an idea of the environment) but his defense leaves much to be desired. Said he was slow to his left and to his right, which doesn’t bode particularly well for anybody hoping for help in 2013.
October 19th, 2012 on 10:59 am
Again, there is no Howardless world. But if there was, his 2012 production could definitely be replaced. 56 RBI in 292 plate appearances is kind of impressive, but on-basing .295 isn’t. His power is down, too. His isolated power from 2006-09 ranged from .292 to .346. Over the last three years, his best isolated power is .235 and last year it was a career-worst .204.
Maybe he will be better next year? I think that’s actually really likely. How much better is the question. I don’t have a whole lot more to offer in terms of hope on that front.
Some year, I guess, the Phillies will start to platoon Howard at first. I don’t think it’s 2013, though, cause a lot of his awful 2012 can be written off due to his injury. The problems are bigger than his 2012 injury.
October 19th, 2012 on 3:09 pm
Aren’t ribbies everything? Serious question. If someone hits 50 points higher and drives in 50 less runs, is that good?
October 19th, 2012 on 3:58 pm
If Howard drives in six runs for the Phils next year, that’s going to be a problem.
If he went 1-for-3 in 2013 he would hit .114 points higher than in 2012. Not sure that would be good for the Phillies, either.
Overall, the Phillies need Howard to be a better offensive player. You can hit 50 points higher than you did the previous year without being a better offensive player. If Howard is a better offensive player next year, we shouldn’t worry about the RBI. They will come.
October 19th, 2012 on 5:40 pm
Like you said, they sure better come.
October 19th, 2012 on 7:23 pm
Greg, I’m seeing that Asche is really hitting well. Ruf terribly.
But Asche’s lateral movement is not good, huh? Is this new or have you seen it before?
October 22nd, 2012 on 9:59 am
Ruf isn’t hitting particularly well, but 2 of his three hits have been home runs (the other is a double). The league he is in is a much tougher environment to play in than the Arizona Fall League. Much better competition. Still, would be better if he was hitting better.
Asche is hitting well in a great hitters league. Everything I have seen or heard of him to this point has questioned his defense, so this really isn’t anything new for him. Think Greg Dobbs at third. He may be able to improve with more practice, but who really knows for sure.
October 22nd, 2012 on 10:03 am
Not sure if I should mention this or not, but Galvis (in the same league as Ruf) is hitting .433/.452/.833 so far in 30 at bats. Maybe going off of the juice helped him?
October 22nd, 2012 on 4:34 pm
For what it is worth, I did some more research on Asche defensively (because it beats working). At first blush, his .950 fielding percentage is passable (I’m using only his AA numbers from Reading for this season). Dig a little deeper and you see he had a Range Factor of 2.30 (meaning he got to 2.3 balls per 9 innings). That was good enough for 11th out of the 12 “regular” third basemen in the Eastern League.
Frandsen posted a Range Factor of 2.26 at third this year (and also ironically a .952 fielding percentage) so I suppose the two are fairly comparable. Asche won’t be Greg Dobbs bad (consistently below 2) but he won’t be Mike Schmidt either (career range factor of 3).
What does it all mean? I really don’t know other than to say he will likely be below average, but not horrible at third. It’s possible in the game Keith Law saw he just had a REALLY bad day. Many of the other reports I’ve seen on his defense point to his being adequate, which is probably the best we can hope for. Long story short, he isn’t a real viable option for 3B in 2013.
October 22nd, 2012 on 4:48 pm
Ruf is 4-for-7 with two home runs in the last two days, so I don’t think we need to hit the panic button too hard at this point.
Truly hoping for the best on Asche, but even if he’s going to be good, I agree he’s still going to need a lot more time in the minors. 263 AB above A-ball so far. I agree he’s not going to help the Phillies in 2013. I truly think the Phillies are going to struggle to fill 3B with the options they currently have in the organization.
Galvis is good at defense. He’s gonna need to hit .425 for los Aguilas del Zulia for a lot longer than 40 at-bats to make me think he’s more than that. Nice to see him hit three homers so far, though. I think it would be a mistake to think Galvis might be non-terrible offensively, what with his .292 on-base percentage and .321 slugging percentage in the minors.
I also feel like I never devote enough time to remembering that the Phillies gave him 200 plate appearances in 2012 and he on-based .254. .254?
October 22nd, 2012 on 9:51 pm
Sigh on Asche. I had this fantasy.
I saw Galvis’ numbers, too. Seemed high. Seemed hard to believe in or trust.
October 23rd, 2012 on 8:49 am
It’s probably because you’ve blocked it out of your memory. I have very little hope that Galvis will ever be better than a .300 OBP guy in the majors. If the rest of your team is posting .800+OPS’s and you have a sub .600 OPS and bat 8th with great defense, I’m OK with that. The Phillies aren’t that team though.
October 23rd, 2012 on 8:54 am
While we’re sighing about possible kids helping in 2013, Tyson Gillies put up solid numbers in his first week in Venezuela, but has missed the last week and a half with a hamstring injury. I swear that kid is made of glass.
October 23rd, 2012 on 9:40 am
It seems like there is an enormous opportunity for Tyson Gillies and that he’s not going to be able to take advantage of it. You have to think the Phillies are tiring of him at this point — no matter how good his results on the field last year.
He’s another guy the Phillies shouldn’t be counting on. The problem seems to be that unless they add a bunch of players, there are so many guys they shouldn’t be counting on that is looks like they’re going to have to count on some of them.
The list of guys who could help in CF next year is very small. The fact that Tyson Gillies is on it and perhaps near the top at this point, is not good news for the Phillies.