Comments on: Never tell me the odds!

By: FEATURED POST: Never tell me the odds! | Philadelphia Phillies Dugout Online | Philadelphia Phillies Blog

Fri, 14 Sep 2012 06:31:59 +0000

[...] The rest of the article can be found here: Philliesflow.com [...]

By: DaMannse

DaMannse — Thu, 13 Sep 2012 18:56:32 +0000

I think the real answer comes from another sport, another time, and another coast; “Just win, Baby!”

By: egrissom

egrissom — Thu, 13 Sep 2012 18:36:03 +0000

I don’t think so. The Brewers are 14 1/2 games out of first in the Central. The Odds Report gives them 0% chance to win the division (like the Phillies) but a higher chance to win the Wild Card.

By: Jim

Jim — Thu, 13 Sep 2012 18:30:39 +0000

Do the Brewers have an outside shot at the division, and that gives them the better playoff odds, maybe?

By: egrissom

egrissom — Thu, 13 Sep 2012 17:19:19 +0000

The Phillies are amazing. I still think that their chances to make the playoffs aren’t as great as you would think given how well they’re playing, but they are still playing really well.

Not positive on the math either. I think goes .415 (41.5%) to win the first game, .415 *.415 = .1722 — 17.2% chance to win the first game and the second. .1722 * .415 = .0715 (7.1%) to win the first three, etc, down to 0.04% to win all nine.

I think (1-0.415)^9 would be their chance to lose all nine of the games if they had a .415 winning percentage in games where they score three runs. Again, not positive.

Either way, I wouldn’t have predicted it happening.

Phillies and Brewers have the same record, but BBP has Milwaukee’s chances to make the post-season at 3.7% to 2.6% for the Phils.

Still, couldn’t hurt for the Phils to keep on winning.

By: Jim

Jim — Thu, 13 Sep 2012 16:11:07 +0000

So, applied probability has never been my strong suit. So I probably approached this wrong. But I come up with a 0.2% chance that the Phils don’t lose at least one game where the expected winning percentage is 41.5%. (1-0.415)^9. Whichever the method, the odds are pretty slim.

The odd part is, after all this the Phils might end up with a play-in game vs. the Brewers, who are also on an incredible run, for the 2nd WC spot.