The Phillies started the second half nicely in Colorado this weekend, taking two of three from the Rockies.
The Rockies won the opener 6-2 on Friday. The teams went into the bottom of the sixth tied at 1-1, but Colorado scored five runs charged to Lee and Schwimer in the sixth and seventh innings and rolled to a win. The bullpen nearly gave away game two of the set. The Phils led 6-2 going into the bottom of the eighth, but Brian Sanches coughed up a three-run homer and Manuel had to call on Papelbon to get the last five outs. Two runs in the top of the ninth extended the Phillies lead and they won 8-5.
Yesterday the Phillies won 5-1 behind strong pitching from Cole Hamels and a three-run homer from Hunter Pence.
The bullpen is still terrible and if Utley (on-basing .289 so far) and Howard (0-for-8 in the series) are going to pull the Phils out of their long, long funk it hasn’t happened so far. There were signs of life from Shane Victorino the set, though. After going 0-for-4 in the first two games of the series, Victorino was 3-for-8 with a walk, a double and two triples as the Phils took the last two. He had three extra-base hits in his last 121 plate appearances going into get two of the set.
The Phillies are 39-51 on the year after beating the Colorado Rockies 5-1 yesterday afternoon. The Phils take the series two games to one. They’re in fifth place in the NL East, 14 games behind the first-place Nationals.
Remember this? The Phils went into the second half needing to play to a .707 winning percentage the rest of the way if they were going to get to 90 wins for the year. Taking two out of three against the Rockies is nice, but it actually ups that needed winning percentage to .708 the rest of the way. The needed winning percentage in remaining games to hit various win marks is now tracked in the Start Log at the bottom of the blue band.
Hamels got the start for the Phillies and went eight innings, allowing a run on six hits and a walk. One of the hits went for extra-bases, a triple. He struck out seven and dropped his ERA on the year to 3.07. The Phillies have won just one of the last four games he has started, but he’s thrown to a 2.48 ERA with a 1.07 ratio over those four outings.
He started the bottom of the first with a 1-0 lead. Dexter Fowler led off with a single to left. Marco Scutaro was next and bunted. Hamels fielded, but his throw to first sailed over Wigginton’s head. Scutaro was safe and Fowler moved up to second, putting men on first and second for Carlos Gonzalez. Hamels struck Gonzalez out swinging for the first out. Ramon Hernandez was next and Hamels struck him out swinging at a 2-2 pitch in the dirt. Michael Cuddyer grounded to short to leave both runners stranded.
Nice job by Fontenot backing up Hamels’s throw to first and holing everyone to a single base. Hamels does well to pitch around his error after the first two batters of the inning reach base.
Tyler Colvin singled to start the second, but Hamels got the next three Rockies in order behind him.
Fowler led off the bottom of the third and singled to right. Hamels picked him off of first with Wigginton throwing to Rollins for the first out. Hamels got Scutaro and Gonzalez behind Fowler.
Up 2-0, Hamels threw a 1-2-3 fourth. Mayberry made a nice diving catch on a ball hit by Cuddyer for the second out.
Chris Nelson reached on an infield single to start the fifth with the Phils up 5-0, but Hamels got Josh Rutledge to ground into a double-play behind him. Switch-hitter Jonathan Herrera hit for the pitcher Drew Pomeranz, but Hamels got him on a ground ball to second to end the inning.
Hamels walked Scutaro with one out in the sixth and Gonzalez followed with a triple to center that scored Scutaro and cut the lead to 5-1. Hamels struck Hernandez out for the second out and got Cuddyer on a ground ball to second for the third.
Big strikeout for Hamels, getting Hernandez for the second out with Gonzalez on third helps keep the Rockies from getting more.
Hamels threw a 1-2-3 seventh.
Switch-hitter Eric Young hit for the pitcher Mike Ekstrom and singled to center to start the eighth. Hamels got the next three to turn Colorado away.
Bastardo got two ground balls and a strikeout in a 1-2-3 ninth.
Nice start to the second half for Bastardo. He came into the game having thrown to a 9.00 ERA in his 14 appearances since the end of June. He threw seven pitches in the game.
The Phillies lineup against lefty Drew Pomeranz went (1) Rollins (2) Victorino (3) Pence (4) Ruiz (5) Wigginton (6) Polanco (7) Mayberry (8) Fontenot. Utley and Howard both on the bench against the lefty after they both played the first two games of the series. Mayberry in left, Wigginton at first and Fontenot at second. Victorino continues to hit second with Polanco sixth against the lefty. Fontenot starts against the lefty with Utley resting.
Victorino tripled with one out in the top of the first. Pence struck out behind him for the second out, but Ruiz picked Pence up with a single into left that scored Victorino and put the Phils up 1-0. Wigginton drew a walk before Polanco grounded to short to leave both runners stranded.
The Phils went in order in the second and again in the third.
Ruiz led off the fourth with a double and moved up to third on a ground out by Wigginton. Polanco flew to right for the second out. Ruiz tagged and scored, putting the Phils up 2-0. Mayberry grounded to third for the third out.
Fontenot and Hamels both struck out to start the fifth before Rollins singled to left. An error on a pickoff throw by Pomeranz allowed Rollins to take second and Victorino walked to put two on for Pence. Pence hit a 2-1 pitch out to left for a three-run homer, putting the Phils up 5-0. Ruiz flew to center to set the Phillies down.
Huge swing off of Pence against a lefty. He came into the game hitting 247/326/442 against them for the year with just three home runs.
Righty Carlos Torres set the Phils down in order in the sixth.
Fontenot walked to start the seventh with the lead cut to 5-1. Hamels bunted him to second with the first out before Rollins walked. Victorino grounded to second for the second out and Pence flew to right for the third.
Righty Mike Ekstrom set the Phils down in order in the eighth.
Righty Rafael Betancourt started the ninth. Fontenot walked with one out. Howard hit for Hamels and grounded into a double-play to set the Phillies down.
Rollins was 1-for-3 in the game and 5-for-12 with a walk, two doubles and a triple in the series. He’s hitting 261/315/414 for the year.
Victorino 1-for-3 with a walk and a triple yesterday. 3-for-12 with a walk, a double and two triples in the series. 3-for-8 with a walk and three extra-base hits in the last two games after going 0-for-4 in the opener. 245/311/379 on the year. Rollins and Victorino hit one-two at the top of the order — Rollins leads that duo with a .315 on-base percentage for the season.
Pence 1-for-4 with a three-run homer, which was his only hit of the series. He was 1-for-12, dropping his line on the year to 278/344/477.
Ruiz was 2-for-4 with a double and an RBI. 5-for-12 with two doubles and a home run in the series. 353/412/595 for the year. He has five home runs in his last 59 plate appearances.
Wigginton 0-for-3 with a walk in his only action of the set. 181/253/319 over his last 79 plate appearances. 244/317/393 on the season.
Polanco 0-for-3 with an RBI. 1-for-7 in the series. 3-for-his-last-29 with a walk and three singles. 263/306/337.
Mayberry 0-for-4 with a strikeout. 2-for-7 with two strikeouts in the set. 234/270/374 for the year. He’s terrible against righties (207/267/273 for the year) but hitting .269 against lefties with a .505 slugging percentage. On-basing .274 against left-handed pitching with zero walks in 95 plate appearances. That’s zero with a z.
Fontenot was 1-for-3 with a walk. 1-for-6 with two walks in the series. 315/365/371 for the year. Should be starting close to every game against a righty given the combination of Polanco being Polanco and Utley needing extra rest.
Utley was 3-for-8 with three RBI in the series and his hitting 262/289/405 over 45 plate appearances for the year. Howard was 0-for-1 yesterday and 0-for-8 with two walks in the set. He’s 2-for-16 so far.
Blanton (7-8, 4.98) faces righty Nathan Eovaldi (1-5, 4.21) tonight in LA. Blanton has a 6.12 ERA over his last nine starts. Eovaldi had a 2.35 ERA over his first five starts of the year but has thrown to a 7.71 ERA over his last three outings.
July 16th, 2012 on 10:48 am
So on average we need to win about 5 out of 7 to try to improve that .708 to 90 mark. Best we only check on it once a week or so.
July 16th, 2012 on 10:58 am
Down to .704 if the Phillies win tonight.
Gotta go 46-26 to get to 85 wins. That sounds hard. I don’t think it can be done with this bullpen, which is in danger of becoming the worst in the league by ERA. 15th now at 4.89. The Mets are 16th at 4.90.
Relievers other than Papelbon have thrown to a 5.19 ERA for the season in an NL where the league average for relievers is 3.87. That’s really, really bad.
July 16th, 2012 on 11:27 am
Is it too early to think about 2013? I’m already wondering if the Phils will fire RAJ in the somewhat likely event they miss the playoffs.
July 16th, 2012 on 1:14 pm
O ye of little faith.
I think the Amaro survives, no matter what happens with the Phillies the rest of the way.
09, went to the World Series
10, best record in baseball
11, best record in baseball
Don’t think you can blame him for the playoff collapses. Terrible year in 2012, almost a lock at this point. But I think he’ll get to try again.
July 16th, 2012 on 4:47 pm
Highly unlikely in my mind that Amaro gets fired. What I do believe is more likely is that Charlie won’t be managing next year on his own accord (ie retires, not fired), but even that I would say is not a real possibility.
July 16th, 2012 on 4:58 pm
I think that Charlie has to know that they’re not close to winning at this point. I think whether he’s going to stay around or not is going to depend on whether or not the team is willing to spend additional money to bring in some more players around the existing core.
I’m pretty sure he’s not going to stick around another year to watch Brian Sanches serve up three-run shots and watch a bunch of other guys who ought to be fighting for a job at the end of a pen pitch with the game on the line. But I really don’t think the team is as bad as their record suggests, especially if they figure out the pen and it seems like the pen could be enormously improved by guys that are not that good.
Unrelated: Four quality starts in a row for the Phils. Before this string they hadn’t had more than two in a row since May 18. The bullpen has thrown to a 7.56 ERA over those four games and the Phils combined to score five runs in the first two of them. So I guess you can’t have everything.
July 16th, 2012 on 9:40 pm
Kinda feel like regular season records are not the measure of a team’s or a GM’s success, really. They are nice of course but the post season is where the excitement, money, and the measure of a season is accomplished. It is where the action is. And the Phillies have accomplished less every year. To say the downward arc that began with Amaro’s tenure is not his responsibility isn’t convincing to me, I guess.
And the additional wild card this year underscores that, assuming they miss the post season entirely. .
July 17th, 2012 on 7:10 am
I kinda like this recipe. Starter goes 8 IP, maybe even 7.1 IP sometimes and Papelbon shuts it down. Win. Just eliminate the mess in the middle.
Vic with three hits, base running was a bit rough though. Howard with a dinger, almost two.
July 17th, 2012 on 7:36 am
And Doc tonight. Fingers crossed.
July 17th, 2012 on 9:52 am
Eric, you don’t think the hand of Pat Gillick played a much larger role in the ’09-’11 teams? It’s generally difficult for a new GM to impact a team (one way or another) for the first couple years.
Agree with Bill that the games where most of the bullpen doesn’t play will certainly turn out a lot better than the games where they do.
July 17th, 2012 on 9:53 am
DeMannse…I need to disagree with your post above regarding regular season not being a measure of a team’s success. It is really just basic mathematics. A team that is constructed properly will win more than it loses over a 162 game schedule, but the best team does not/will not/cannot win every playoff series due to the length. If the NLDS was the best of 21 instead of the best of 5, then the better team would win more often than not. Statistical flukiness in small samples is just that, a fluke.
Look at the flipping of a coin, which is a basic 50/50 proposition. Flip a coin 4 times and you aren’t always going to get two heads and two tails. In fact, you’re going to get 2 heads and two tails 37.5% of the time. Now, you may say the Phillies weren’t 50/50 to win the game. They were 102/60 (or 63%), but the Cardinals were 90/72 (or 56%) which reduces the 63% number somewhat.
In other words, the playoffs are more of a crap shoot than you (or most people for that matter) realize. All you can do is get there.
July 17th, 2012 on 10:00 am
Jim…this is another argument I simply don’t understand. How can we not give credit to Amaro when the team does well but then give him all of the blame when the team does poorly?
I don’t want to come off as an Amaro apologist. I personally don’t think he is one of the better GM’s in the game. He’s pretty good at recognizing and targeting star players, but seems to overpay in terms of talent to acquire that player and dollars to sign that player. A few of the moves have seemed short-sighted. At the same time, I know he is doing a MUCH better job than I or any other ‘Average Joe’ could do.
July 17th, 2012 on 10:32 am
It’s like I said, Greg.. GM moves are for the most part felt a few years down the road, not immediately. Take the Mets, for example. You can credit Sandy Alderson all you want, but for the most part the team is an Omar Minaya team minus a couple of high profile mistakes. Credit should really be to Omar for the team not reaching Kansas City levels of futility this year.
In the same way, the 09-11 teams were Pat Gillick teams, with RAJ making a few apparently schizophrenic high profile moves along the way. Year 3 or 4 is when the long term effects of a GM start being felt (with drafts, trades involving prospects, long term contracts that players may not be living up to, etc.), and for the most part what we’ve learned is that the well is dry and RAJ didn’t bother to contract with a neighboring city to have water imported.
I’m not saying I’d be a better GM. I am saying I have a pretty good idea what better GM’ing looks like and this ain’t it. There’s a pretty good chance that Montgomery et. al. give him a pass this year, but if they fail to do two of the following — get a real left fielder, get a real 3rd baseman, lock up Cole — and aren’t serious contenders next year, then he’s probably gone.
July 17th, 2012 on 10:36 am
I don’t think the playoffs offer much insight into how good a team was. I think what they did over the regular season was much more important. If you were going to try to put a team together specifically to do well in post-season games, I think I would focus on dominating starting pitching. The Phillies had that in 2010 and 2011 and were terrible in the post-season.
I don’t think you can blame Amaro for either ’10 or ’11 post-season (or ’09).
He definitely inherited a great team. I don’t think we should say because that’s the case Gillick should get credit for everything that happened 2009-11. The Phillies won more games in each of the seasons after Gillick left (09-11) than they did in any of the seasons that he was here.
The Halladay deal was a good deal for the Phillies. Trading for Cliff Lee was a good deal for the Phillies.
I agree that Amaro has had an ugly year in 2012. It’s not over yet, though. Even if it does end as badly as most of us expect, I think he’s still going to get more chances and overall it’s hard to complain too much about the results of the last four seasons.
July 17th, 2012 on 10:42 am
I agree that if 2013 proves to be a disaster as well that Amaro won’t survive.
I’d guess that won’t happen and that things get better before 2013.
July 17th, 2012 on 6:15 pm
Well, I disagree completely about the relative value of regular season vs. post season. You can have all the 100 win seasons you want. Give me the parade. The Braves went how many years winning the NL East? And in that time they won as many rings as the Padres.
Their manager Hall of Fame? Not to me. Their team great? Not to me. Their staff the best? Nope. The whole organization was gutless and over rated. Greatness wins championships.
Fire RAJ.