Yesterday I pointed out that Shane Victorino isn’t doing much at all with the bat in road games this season. The Phillies have been miserable just about everywhere in 2012, but a little more miserable at home than on the road. They’re 20-23 away from home and a hide-your-eyes bad 17-27 at home.
Overall, the Phillies have allowed too many runs no matter where they’ve played this year. When it comes to scoring runs, though, they’ve been just fine on the road and miserable at home.
| at Home | NL Rank | Away | NL Rank | |
| Runs allowed per game | 4.39 | 11 | 4.72 | 11 |
| Scored per game | 3.77 | 11 | 4.70 | 3 |
That’s just ugly. The Phillies are kind of the gang that can’t shoot straight. They can’t prevent runs at home or away and they can’t score enough runs at home. What they have done is scored runs on the road.
So far in 2012, only two teams have allowed more runs than the 396 the Phils have given up. Houston has allowed 416 and Colorado has allowed 479.
Offensively they’re in the middle of the pack in the NL. The 368 runs they’ve scored is seventh-best.
Here’s the thing that seems odd, though. The overall offensive numbers for the Phillies at home and on the road are nearly identical:
| PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | ISO | |
| Home | 1622 | 260 | 316 | 401 | 141 |
| Away | 1702 | 264 | 316 | 405 | 141 |
So hitting 260/316/401 with an isolated power of .141 at home has the Phillies at eleventh in the NL in runs scored per game at home. Hitting a very similar 264/316/405 with an isolated power of .141 on the road has them third in the NL in their games away from home. And on the road they’ve scored nearly a run more a game.
So. Huh?
Not completely sure what’s going on with that. Two thoughts, though.
The first one’s a guess and I can’t tell if it’s right or not without double-split data. But I would guess the situational hitting for the Phillies on the road has been better than it has at home.
The bigger one is that teams hit better at home. So if the Phillies don’t hit better at home, then their numbers are going to slump at home relative to the rest of the league.
Of the 16 NL teams, eight of them have scored more runs per game in their away games for the season than they have for their home games for the season (joining the Phils are Atlanta, New York, Pittsburgh, San Diego, San Francisco, St Louis and Washington). As you would expect, though, the splits overall for NL hitters are better at home than they are away:
| AVG | OBP | SLG | |
| Home | 259 | 326 | 413 |
| Away | 248 | 310 | 391 |
So if, on average, everyone is a little better offensively at home than they are on the road and the Phillies stay the same at home and on the road, their numbers relative to the rest of the NL are going to be much better away than they are at home. And they are.
It’s just surprising to me if the difference in this case is the difference in being third in the league in runs scored and eleventh. I don’t think it can be, so there must be more going on.
(Side note on this: I would expect that the overall league split would usually be better at home than away. What I found was that it always, or very close to always, is. I took a quick look and couldn’t find an example of the OPS for the NL being better on the road than at home for any year after 1918, which is when I stopped looking. This hurts my brain and I don’t quite get it. I would not have guessed that the rules give enough of an edge to the home team to make this the case. As I mentioned in the post, so far this year in the NL eight of the 16 teams have scored more runs per game away from home than they have at home. In 2011, NL teams scored an average of 4.12 runs per game at home and an average of 4.14 runs per game away, but with a better OPS at home).
Halladay gave up a run on three hits over three innings for Clearwater last night.
I added a section to the bottom of the blue band in the Start Log that shows the needed winning percentage the Phillies would have to play to in their remaining games in order to get to various win marks. Also shows their projected win total for the year if they play to their existing winning percentage over their remaining games. Right now they’re on pace to go 69-93, which could be better.


July 13th, 2012 on 10:14 am
I think Halliday threw over 60 pitches in his outing, 3 innings.
The runs allowed stats are pretty sobering considering that we were supposed to have maybe the best pitching in the league. For starters at least. Right now we have Hamels and Papelbon. Everyone else is not dependable. the prospect of seeing Hamels traded would leave a fairly grim staff. Odd to be saying that about a staff with a Halladay and a Lee on it.
The little Dutch boy just may be out of fingers to plug the holes in the dike.
July 13th, 2012 on 10:15 am
Kinda hoping we get the Lee we need tonight.
July 13th, 2012 on 10:40 am
If your team is built to prevent runs and you’re 14th in runs allowed in a 16-team league, you’re going to have some problems.
Things are pretty grim already, but I agree that losing Hamels would make them even grimmer.
I’d love to see the Phillies turn this around in the second half. Pretty sure we shouldn’t be counting on it, though.
July 13th, 2012 on 11:16 am
Would you be interested in added current/projected Pythagorean wins to the pace in the blue bar? I keep seeing how the Phils’ WAR wins is much higher than actual results.
July 13th, 2012 on 1:27 pm
Good idea. I added it at the bottom of the blue band. 41-46 so far. 72-90 if they play the rest of their games at the Pythag winning percentage they’ve played to so far.
41-46 is not good, but better than 37-50.
Honestly, I think the Phils have been a little unlucky this year. Not 13 games unlucky, but a little unlucky. They’re still bad, even if they’re a little better than their pythagorean wpct.
July 13th, 2012 on 2:41 pm
Cool.. yeah, you know, I can’t help but think back to those back-to-back walk-off losses to the Pirates to start the year, and thinking luck is not on their side this year.
July 13th, 2012 on 7:12 pm
Jim, you wouldn’t be interested in picking the numbers for Powerball for me would you?
July 14th, 2012 on 8:34 am
Well I guess maybe the Phils are still on Break?
Come on boys, you gotta go 4-2 in these first 6 away games. Anything less and your win % aint gonna work out and losing the first one doesn’t make that any easier.
July 14th, 2012 on 12:24 pm
Kinda a loss we can’t afford, especially since the games Lee starts we sorta hafta win. But that is not the Lee of the second half of 2012 either, apparently.
July 14th, 2012 on 12:59 pm
And of course, the other huge thing is that we were all waiting for them to “get healthy” (code words for getting Utley and Howard back). Then everything would get better. Results on that front are not promising. In fact, the results incline one to believe that it does not matter who they get back, this team is not nor has it been (right from the start, Ruben) good enough to win.
Oh wait. Lance Nyx is getting better, one of Ruben’s two major off season acquisitions along with Wigginton. Once Nyx gets back then everything will be better.
If there is an award for “Worst Off-season By A GM”, I nominate Amaro for risking this entire season on the guys he counted on for the pen, the field, and the line-up. He is the living proof of the Law of Diminishing Returns; every year under his leadership they have accomplished less than the year before.
102 wins? I wonder who that kept warm over the longer winter than the one before.
Yeah, I am angry at Amaro for screwing this team up.
July 16th, 2012 on 8:14 am
DM if I had any skill at picking PowerBall numbers I would have already bought the team and fired RAJ.
July 16th, 2012 on 9:27 am
Makes me crazy just thinking about it.
Sigh. Bad for my blood pressure.