Almost a year ago today, I wrote a post that looked at the record for the Phillies in games where the starters and bullpen pitched well and didn’t pitch well. For the purposes of that post, I counting appearances by starters and relievers as good outings if the starter or the combined relievers posted both an ERA under 4.00 and a ratio under 1.30 for that game.
Using those criteria, the table below shows how the numbers for 2012 compare to the numbers for 2011. In 2011, the Phillies played 91 games before the All-Star break, going 57-34.
|Record||WPCT||% of games||Record||WPCT||% of games|
|SP pitched well||25-16||.610||47.1||43-12||.782||60.4|
|SP didn’t pitch well||12-34||.261||52.9||14-22||.389||39.6|
|Bullpen didn’t pitch||3-0||1.000||3.4||9-2||.819||12.1|
|Bullpen pitched well||19-17||.528||41.4||32-9||.780||45.1|
|Pen didn’t pitch well||15-33||.312||55.2||16-23||.410||42.9|
|Pen and SP both not good||5-21||.192||29.9||2-14||.125||17.6|
|Pen and SP both good||12-4||.750||18.4||20-1||.952||23.1|
|SP good but pen not||11-12||.478||26.4||23-11||.676||37.4|
|Pen good but SP not||7-13||.350||23.0||12-8||.600||22.0|
Looking first at the starting pitchers, the rotation has pitched well in a lower percentage of games (47.1% in 2012 compared to 60.4% in 2011) and the Phillies have been less likely to win when they do pitch well.
In all of 2011, the Phillies got a quality start in two-thirds of their games and went 83-25 in the games where they got a quality start. That’s a .769 winning percentage. The 2012 Phillies are on pace to make 95 quality starts for the year, 13 fewer than in 2011, and have gone just 30-21 (.588) in the games in which they got a quality start. That’s fewer quality starts and much worse results when they come.
The 2012 Phillies have just three complete games. Halladay, Lee and Hamels have combined to throw zero. Blanton has two and Kendrick has one. They’re on pace to throw about 5.5 for the year after throwing 18 complete games in 2011.
The bullpen has pitched well in a lower percentage of games in 2012 than it did in 2011 and pitched poorly in a higher percentage. The winning percentage for the Phillies is worse for the team both when the pen pitches well and when it doesn’t pitch well.
Pretty tough to win in the games when both the starters and the pen don’t pitch well. In both years the team had a winning percentage under .200. The pen and the starters have both been bad in nearly 30% of the games the Phils have played this season. After 91 games last year, the percentage of games where both were bad was just 17.6%.
At the break in 2011, the Phillies were 20-1 in games when both their starters and pen pitched well. They are just 12-4 this year.
The last two lines of the table might be the most telling. The 2011 Phillies still got a whole lot of wins in the games where either the starter or pen was good but the other was not. If you combine the last two lines, the Phillies are 18-25 (.419) in 2012 in games where either the starters or the relievers didn’t pitch well. In 2011 they were 35-19 (.648) in games where one or the other didn’t pitch well.
The NL won the All-Star Game 8-0. Hamels threw a scoreless inning, Papelbon got the only batter he faced and Ruiz went 0-for-1.