Today’s point is that losing all your games hurts your chances of getting to 90 wins.

When the season started, the Phillies needed to win about 5 1/2 of every ten games (a little more) to get to 90 wins for the season. Not so much anymore. If the Phils win 20 in a row coming out of the break, they will still need to play to a .600 winning percentage in their remaining 55 games to get to 90 wins.

To win 90 of 162 games, a team needs to play to a winning percentage of about .556. There aren’t 162 games left for the Phillies in 2012. Given their current 37-50 record, if the Phillies won their first 26 games to start the second half of the season, they would need a .551 winning percentage in their remaining games to get to 90 wins. If they won their first 25 they would need a .560 winning percentage in their remaining games to get to 90.

Here’s a look at the winning percentage the Phillies needed to play to for the rest of their games if they were going to get to 90 wins after each day they’ve played this season:

Date

Played

Wins needed for 90

Games left

WPCT needed

4/5
4/7
4/8
4/9
4/11
4/12
4/13
4/14
4/15
4/16
4/17
4/18
4/19
4/20
4/21
4/22
4/23
4/24
4/25
4/27
4/28
4/29
4/30
5/1
5/2
5/3
5/4
5/5
5/6
5/7
5/8
5/9
5/11
5/12
5/13
5/14
5/15
5/16
5/17
5/18
5/19
5/20
5/21
5/22
5/23
5/24
5/25
5/26
5/27
5/28
5/29
5/30
6/1
6/2
6/3
6/4
6/5
6/6
6/7
6/8
6/9
6/10
6/12
6/13
6/14
6/15
6/16
6/17
6/19
6/20
6/21
6/23
6/24
6/24
6/25
6/26
6/27
6/28
6/29
6/30
7/1
7/3
7/4
7/5
7/6
7/7
7/8

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87

89
89
89
89
88
87
87
87
86
85
85
85
84
83
83
83
83
82
81
81
80
80
79
78
78
77
77
77
76
76
76
76
75
75
74
73
72
71
70
69
69
69
69
69
68
67
66
65
65
64
64
63
62
62
62
62
62
62
62
61
61
61
61
60
59
59
59
59
58
57
57
56
56
56
55
54
54
54
54
54
54
54
53
53
53
53
53

161
160
159
158
157
156
155
154
153
152
151
150
149
148
147
146
145
144
143
142
141
140
139
138
137
136
135
134
133
132
131
130
129
128
127
126
125
124
123
122
121
120
119
118
117
116
115
114
113
112
111
110
109
108
107
106
105
104
103
102
101
100
99
98
97
96
95
94
93
92
91
90
89
88
87
86
85
84
83
82
81
80
79
78
77
76
75

0.553
0.556
0.560
0.563
0.561
0.558
0.561
0.565
0.562
0.559
0.563
0.567
0.564
0.561
0.565
0.568
0.572
0.569
0.566
0.570
0.567
0.571
0.568
0.565
0.569
0.566
0.570
0.575
0.571
0.576
0.580
0.585
0.581
0.586
0.583
0.579
0.576
0.573
0.569
0.566
0.570
0.575
0.580
0.585
0.581
0.578
0.574
0.570
0.575
0.571
0.577
0.573
0.569
0.574
0.579
0.585
0.590
0.596
0.602
0.598
0.604
0.610
0.616
0.612
0.608
0.615
0.621
0.628
0.624
0.620
0.626
0.622
0.629
0.636
0.632
0.628
0.635
0.643
0.651
0.659
0.667
0.675
0.671
0.679
0.688
0.697
0.707

So, for example, the Phillies beat the Pirates 1-0 on Opening Day. After that day they had played one game and needed 89 more wins to get to 90. To win 89 of the 161 games they had left they would have needed to play to a .553 winnings percentage the rest of the way.

After losing to the Braves 4-3 on July 8, the Phillies are 37-50 and would need to play to a .707 winning percentage in their remaining 75 games to get to 90 wins. And while the Phils might go 53-22 the rest of the way, there’s an even bigger chance that won’t even happen.

The .553 needed winning percentage after the Opening Day win was the lowest mark on the year for the Phillies. The current .707 winning percentage is the highest it has been all season. The Opening Day win was the only day of the season in which the Phillies ended the day with a winning percentage for the year (1.000) that was greater than their needed winning percentage the rest of the way (.553) if they were going to get to 90 wins. Their current winning percentage of .425 is .281 lower than the .707 they would need the rest of the way to get to 90 wins. That’s the biggest difference between the two since the Phillies were 1-3 after four games.

The high mark for the year for the Phillies was three games over .500. That came after a June 1 win over the Fish that made them 28-25 on the season. They needed a .569 winning percentage (62-47) the rest of the way to get to 90 at that point, which was still higher than their .528 winning percentage for the year. Since then they’ve gone 9-25.

Eleven games ago, coming off of a June 26 win against the Pirates, their needed winning percentage the rest of the way was .628. Since then the Phillies have gone 1-10.

Going 10-1 in their first 11 games after the break doesn’t get the Phillies back to the same point they were at after winning on June 28, cause they have 22 fewer games to play and they were behind pace before they played the 22. If they go 10-1 in the first 11 after the break, they’re at 47-51 with 64 games left. They would need to go 43-21 over those 64 to get to 90 wins, which is a .672 winning percentage.

If they win 20 games in a row coming off the break, the Phillies are 57-50 and still have to play to a .600 winning percentage in their remaining 55 (33-22) games to get to 90 wins.

Running out of time is the theme here, cause the chart above is a lot less impressed with wins than it used to be and losses hurt a lot more, too. If the Phils win their first game after the break, they would need 52 wins in 74 games to get to 90. The needed winning percentage would drop from .707 to about .703. If they lost, though, they need 53 wins in 74 games. The needed winning percentage would rise much more substantially than it fell with a win, popping all the way up to .716. So the result of game one of the second half will either drop the needed winning percentage by about .004 or raise it by about .009.

There’s really not a lot of silver lining to be found. The closest I can get is that it isn’t going to take 90 wins to get into the playoffs. My guess is 88 does it and 86 or 87 gives you a solid chance.