The Phillies have had a whole lot of problems scoring runs in the early going, but they’ve also been less dominating when it comes to preventing them relative to the rest of the league. Coming into today’s games, the Phillie starters had been very good for the season, but weren’t particularly close to being the best rotation in the league.
And that could be a problem for a team counting on having the best rotation in the league.
Here’s a look at how the Phils have fared at scoring and preventing runs so far this season as well as some numbers for their starters and relievers:
| Year | R/G (Rank) | RA/G (Rank) | SP ERA (Rank) | RA/IP SP | IP/G SP | RP ERA | RA/IP RP | IP/G RP |
| ’12 | 3.32 (14) | 3.26 (4) | 2.80 (4) | .343 | 6.60 | 3.12 (5) | .438 | 2.28 |
| ’11 | 4.40 (7) | 3.27 (1) | 2.86 (1) | .338 | 6.57 | 3.45 (7) | .410 | 2.55 |
The biggest problem, of course, is that the Phillies are scoring more than a run less in 2012 than they did in 2011, falling from seventh in the league in runs scored per game to 14th. I don’t think the Phils are going to overcome that, no matter what kind of pitching they get. They’re either going to get a whole lot better than 14th in the league in runs scored per game or they’re going to lose a lot.
Beyond the obvious issues with the offense, I think there’s been another, less important, issue in the early going as well. While the starting pitching for the Phillies has been very good, it hasn’t been as dominant relative to the rest of the league as it was in 2011.
In 2011, the Phillies clearly had the best starting rotation in the NL, throwing to a 2.86 ERA and a 1.11 ratio for the season. The Giants were probably the team with the second-best rotation, but they were significantly behind the Phils, pitching to a 3.28 ERA with a 1.24 ratio and throwing about .41 of an inning less than the Phils per start.
In 2012, the starting pitchers for the Phils have been about as good as they were in 2011 and maybe a little better, throwing to a 2.80 ERA with a 1.09 ratio. The problem is that while similar numbers made them the best in the league in 2011, the Phils haven’t had the best starting rotation in the league so far in 2012. The Nats, Cardinals and Pirates have all had starting pitching that’s been better than the Phillies so far and the Dodgers have been about the same. The bullpen for the Phillies has been better than it was in 2012, but even when you factor that in, the advantage that the Phillies have gotten relative to the rest of the league in preventing runs in 2012 is not as large as it was in 2011.
In 2011, the Phillies allowed an average of 3.27 runs per game, which is about 78.6% of the NL average of 4.16 runs per game. So far in 2012, the Phillies have allowed an even better 3.26 runs per game, but that 3.26 runs per game is about 82.7% of the NL average of 3.94 runs allowed per game.
So even though the pitching has been good, it hasn’t given the Phillies nearly the same advantage it did in 2011. And that’s a problem for a team counting on their starting pitching to make up for a whole lot of problems scoring runs.
Finally, if you haven’t done so recently, take a moment and look at the numbers that Washington’s starrting pitchers have posted while pacing the Nats to a 14-5 start. It’s a little silly. Zimmerman, Strasburg, Gonzalez and Detwiler have combined to make 15 starts of the 19 starts and not one of them has an ERA over 1.55 or a ratio over 0.94.
Halladay (3-1, 1.50) faces lefty Paul Maholm (1-2, 8.36) tonight as the Phils host the Cubs. Halladay hasn’t allowed more than two runs in any of his four stars on the year or given up a home run. The Phils are 3-1 in his outings. Maholm was hit hard in his first two starts, allowing six runs in four innings in each, but held the Reds to a run over six innings his most recent time out.


April 27th, 2012 on 8:22 pm
If I were to guess, I’d say that the Phils are going to get a bit better and the Nats are going to get a bit worse.
April 27th, 2012 on 9:12 pm
It’s hard to imagine the Nats’ ERA continuing at this pace. Kind of scary, though, what that might mean when the Phillies play them.
Doc starts. Three runs in six.
Nats starters do not have the pressure on them the Phillies’ starters have. Think it makes a difference?
April 27th, 2012 on 10:07 pm
One run. With no end in sight.
April 28th, 2012 on 6:40 am
So when do they give Brown a shot, do you think?
April 28th, 2012 on 7:16 am
It would be hard to get Nix and Pierre off the team right now; they happen to be among the team’s offensive leaders, as scary as that sounds. (1 & 3 in BA, 1 & 5 in OPS.) They’d have to be willing to demote Mayberry to bring Brown up.
April 28th, 2012 on 1:56 pm
Yeah. They would. At some point they will have little choice if some players don’t get going. This is a pretty bad team right now.
April 28th, 2012 on 6:55 pm
I’m not convinced that the starters are going to get better than 2.80 ERA with a 1.09 ratio the rest of the way. Definitely agree that the rest of the league is going to get worse, especially the Pirates and Nats. Still, I would say there’s a real chance the Phillies don’t have the best starting pitching overall at the end of the season.
Brown is not doing anything at Triple-A. 267/317/373 with no home runs. I don’t think he’s close to helping the Phils yet.
April 29th, 2012 on 4:17 pm
Ninth. Second hit of the day. Two outs. Third walk. Vic does nothing. Cubs win.
Not seeing a lot of good things to generate hope for a better tomorrow.
April 30th, 2012 on 6:14 am
And starting Tuesday we actually start to play against the GOOD teams.