Comments on: Phils overcome Halladay’s worst start of the season to top Giants

By: egrissom

egrissom — Wed, 18 Apr 2012 15:57:09 +0000

Or bumGARNER, even.

Here all week. Don’t forget to tip your waitress.

By: DaMannse

DaMannse — Wed, 18 Apr 2012 10:33:29 +0000

Wednesday morning. Bummer.

By: DaMannse

DaMannse — Wed, 18 Apr 2012 03:37:36 +0000

Ok, 5th inning and it’s late. I am off to bed. Joe isn’t Doc, but he has allowed only 2 runs so far and a lot of teams wish they had someone they could say that about.

And you know what? Freddie is standing on second. He seems to be doing that more and more. He just may be a player.

Polly. Geez.

By: DaMannse

DaMannse — Wed, 18 Apr 2012 03:24:11 +0000

I am pretty worried.

By: egrissom

egrissom — Wed, 18 Apr 2012 01:17:33 +0000

I think if you truly think the Phils are going to get nothing from Utley, Howard and Brown this year, you should be pretty worried. I think those guys add up to some much-needed offense. It’s really important what these guys do in the early part of the season, but if the team at the end of the year looks like the team right now I don’t have high hopes. I don’t think it will, whether the influx of offense comes from the trio above or not.

If the Phillies aren’t going to get contributions from those three guys, they’ll need to add better than average players.

By: Jim

Jim — Wed, 18 Apr 2012 00:07:46 +0000

More math If trading away Blanton (and letting Kendrick and/or some Baby Ace’s get some starts) means you need to add another 0.10 runs allowed / game, and you can trade him for somebody who (A) can stand at 3rd or 1st regularly and knows what to do, and (B) puts up some numbers that equate to scoring another 0.15 runs / game (roughly) above Polanco or Whoever’s On First, then it makes sense to trade him. In the end, Blanton’s the 5th starter, he won’t get a playoff start barring serious injuries, and he’s (if performing like he did in his first start) a luxury that we can afford to trade in.

By: DaMannse

DaMannse — Tue, 17 Apr 2012 23:52:51 +0000

WAIT WAIT WAIT.

JIM, if the pitching is so crucial, then why did you say you would trade Blanton? Isn’t he kind of key?

By: DaMannse

DaMannse — Tue, 17 Apr 2012 23:49:35 +0000

I think I am just a little scared that that made sense.

By: Jim

Jim — Tue, 17 Apr 2012 23:39:03 +0000

DM,

It gets pretty mathy. Basically it comes down to expected run differential, and pythagorean wins based on that. The manager has some influence about whether you over- or under-perform your pythagorean wins.

If you go with the premise that the Phils will have the #1 or #2 pitching in the league, then you don’t need a #1 or #2 offense to get into the tournament. Once you’re in the tournament, everything goes out the window, and individual performances, luck, and “clutchness” matter a whole lot more.

Let’s play a little game. Assume that the number to get into the tourney this year is 90 wins (I guessed earlier that 88 would take NL East). Now, let’s assume that the pitching is slightly worse than last year. Last year we allowed 3.27 runs / game; let’s assume that goes to 3.35. That gets you to 542 runs allowed. To reach 90 pythagorean wins, you’d need to score about 610 runs, or about 3.76 runs / game. Last year, 610 would have tied you for Pittsburgh at 14th in the NL; in that 102-win season we put up 710 for 7th place.

Obviously, we’d like more than 90 wins, and we’d like better than 14th in the NL in runs scored. But so long as the pitching is top-flight, the offense doesn’t have to be in order to get a shot at a title.

By: DaMannse

DaMannse — Tue, 17 Apr 2012 22:59:31 +0000

Interesting. Thanks. There is much to think about here, isn’t there.

The part I wish you would unpack for me is the notion that we only need average players instead of really top flight players in order to be World Series players. I just do not understand that.

Maybe part of the reason I do not understand is that I’m pretty sure that we will get no meaningful time this year from either Utley or Howard. If so, then “average” will not be good enough to use the incredible pitching we have, will it?

Of course, I am increasingly of the opinion that Utley will never play again in any meaningful way. I wear his jersey to every game I attend. It is a wistful thing. It breaks my heart that such a mammoth talent will likely never reach the Hall because of achy knees.