Today’s guess on who might start the year with the Phillies. And yeah, it’s a lot different from the last one.
Here are the hitters:
| 1 | Carlos Ruiz |
| 2 | Brian Schneider |
| 3 | John Mayberry |
| 4 | Ty Wigginton |
| 5 | Freddy Galvis |
| 6 | Jimmy Rollins |
| 7 | Placido Polanco |
| 8 | Laynce Nix |
| 9 | Shane Victorino |
| 10 | Hunter Pence |
| 11 | Jim Thome |
| 12 | |
| 13 |
Changes since the January post are the removals of Utley and Valdez and the addition of Galvis.
It seems likely at this point that Utley, Howard and Martinez will start the year on the DL. It’s a little less clear where Domonic Brown will be, but as much as the Phillies need his bat my guess he’ll be somewhere learning how to catch fly balls.
One hitting spot needs to be filled by a backup infielder who can play short. If Rollins and Galvis both start, the Phils have nobody on the bench who can play shortstop. Polanco seems like he would be the choice in an emergency, but I’m guessing that wouldn’t take long to get real ugly. Pete Orr and Hector Luna are the players the Phillies have currently who could make the base case for being the utility guy, but both seem like they would be hard to carry if they can’t play shortstop.
Anyway, assuming 13 hitters, one of the two remaining spots will be taken by a utility guy. My guess is the Phils add one from outside the organization and it’s Pete Orr if they don’t.
The utility guy, could, of course, turn into the starting second baseman. That would presumably mean Galvis or Orr as the utility guy, advantage Galvis cause he can play short.
That leaves one hitter slot and I’m guessing Juan Pierre will take it, despite the fact that Lou Montanez and Scott Podsednik have both outplayed Pierre to this point in Spring Training. I think the Phils would be better off giving that spot to someone else, Brown or Podsednik especially. I don’t think they will. Brown is obviously the best choice offensively, but he has put the Phils in a tough spot by playing defense so awful it’s hard to put him on the field.
Here are the pitchers:
| 1 | Roy Halladay |
| 2 | Cliff Lee |
| 3 | Cole Hamels |
| 4 | Joe Blanton |
| 5 | Vince Worley |
| 6 | Kyle Kendrick |
| 7 | Jonathan Papelbon |
| 8 | Antonio Bastardo |
| 9 | Chad Qualls |
| 10 | Michael Stutes |
| 11 | |
| 12 |
Herndon, Willis and Contreras are off that list from the previous version. Contreras surely has a spot if he does not start the year on the DL.
My guess is that Herndon would start the year in the pen if Contreras were on the DL and might even if Contreras did not.
Still no second lefty in the pen, what with Willis blowing up and being released. Raul Valdes looks to me like he should have a legit shot, though, having pitched very well in Spring Training so far. Joe Savery and Jake Diekman have also pitched well so far, but I’d guess they both start the year down.
Anyway, at this point my guess would be that the Phils carry 12 pitchers to start the year — the ten above plus two of Contreras, Herndon and Valdes. If I have to guess two I would go Herndon and Valdes with Contreras on the DL.
Injury roundup here.
Contreras is expected to pitch this afternoon as the Phils face Toronto.
March 22nd, 2012 on 1:09 pm
As much as I hate to say it, I think it’s Pierre and a PTBNL as the two hitting spots left.
Dubee has really been talking up Diekman, so I think he gots a shot as the 2nd lefty to start the year. The other spot will be Herndon IMHO. If it is Valdes who gets the 2nd lefty, then it would only be because Diekman has options and they don’t think Valdes will make it through waivers.
Tons of fun speculating on this stuff though.
March 22nd, 2012 on 1:15 pm
I’m just guessing and don’t know at all, obviously, but it seems like there’s a chance the Phils might like the idea that Valdes has some experience. Especially given there have been some concerns about dehydration with Bastardo this spring. I’d be excited to see Diekman start the year with the Phils and regardless of who’s on the team opening day, it’s great Savery and Diekman have both pitched well.
I agree about the hitters. I think it’s Pierre and MLB utility guy or 2B not on the team. I do wonder about Brown and whether the Phillies would trade him, though. They must have thought about it. Again, I think he’s getting old and needs to play and is going to kill a team defensively for a while. I don’t think the Phils are going to score enough in the short-term to allow themselves to be killed defensively, but a team that wasn’t trying to win it all yet might feel differently.
March 22nd, 2012 on 2:24 pm
I kind of like Podsednik. I like his speed. And his numbers in the past have been pretty good. And he can throw better than Pierre. But y’all probably are right about who gets the nod between the two.
Brown is really a weird issue. I cannot believe I am saying this, but I think it is time to bring him up and use him. If he can hit, then let’s see it. Just do not use him as a defensive replacement in the ninth.
March 22nd, 2012 on 3:06 pm
Dom Brown, meet Pat Burrell. Burrell, Brown. Have a nice chat.
March 22nd, 2012 on 3:17 pm
At least with Burrell, if he got to the ball he caught it. He just didn’t get there a lot. With Brown he always seems to get close, then makes a flailing effort that turns it into a triple. In addition to catching the ball, I really hope they instate a no diving policy when it comes to his outfield play. Just try and guess where it’s going to stop rolling, run there and pick it up. You’ll save us a base.
March 22nd, 2012 on 4:21 pm
Yeah, Pat’s motor was not built for speed. He could, indeed, catch the ball. And then he could throw the heck out of it. And then there was The Bull. ‘Ol Greg was even slower than pat, and could not really throw all that well. But that thunderous bat…
Think Dom could bring some thunder? I don’t know. He just looks so pathetic in the field. But if he can hit…. we may need some guys who can do that. Seems like there may be a shortage. (Again, I cannot believe I am saying this.)