The past few posts have looked at a couple of areas where John Mayberry has been outstanding over the past two seasons — since he’s joined the Phils, Mayberry has hit home runs at a very high rate and also seen a large percentage of his hits go for extra-bases given his batting average.
On area where he’s a little off early in his career is the number of walks he’s drawing for a guy who has hit homers at such a high rate. For his career, Mayberry now has 369 plate appearances in which he has hit 21 home runs, which is 5.69% of his plate appearances. He has walked in just 29 of his 369 plate appearances, though, which is just 7.86%. And that percentage is low for a guy hitting home runs at that rate.
Here are the walks and home run rates of the ten players in either league from 2011 who got 200 plate appearances and homered in at least 5.69% of them (sorted by the number of plate appearances):
| PA | BB | HR | |
| Curtis Granderson Mark Teixeira Jose Bautista Albert Pujols Mark Reynolds Adrian Beltre Mike Napoli Chris Heisey Andruw Jones Brent Lillibridge Group Total |
691 684 655 651 620 525 432 308 222 216 5004 |
12.30% 11.11% 20.15% 9.37% 12.10% 4.76% 13.43% 6.17% 13.06% 7.87% 11.53% |
5.93% 5.70% 6.56% 5.68% 5.97% 6.10% 6.94% 5.84% 5.86% 6.02% 6.06% |
Ten players hit home runs in at least 5.69% of their plate appearances in 2011. That group combined to get 5,004 plate appearances in which they walked 577 times, which is 11.53%. Of the ten, Mayberry’s career walk rate of 7.86% is better than just two of the members of the group, Beltre and Heisey, and about the same as Lillibridge’s.
In 2010 there was nobody who got 200 plate appearances, homered in at least 5.69% of them and walked in less than Mayberry’s career rate of 7.86% of plate appearances.
| PA | BB | HR | |
| Jose Bautista Jim Thome Paul Konerko Albert Pujols Miguel Cabrera Adam Dunn Russell Branyan Andruw Jones Edwin Encarnacion Joey Votto Group Total |
683 340 631 700 648 648 428 328 367 648 5421 |
14.64% 17.65% 11.41% 14.71% 13.73% 11.88% 10.75% 13.72% 7.90% 14.04% 13.13% |
7.91% 7.35% 6.18% 6.00% 5.86% 5.86% 5.84% 5.79% 5.72% 5.71% 6.24% |
Encarnacion was close, but still managed to top the Mayberry’s walk rate by a small margin.
It’s important to remember that Mayberry’s walk rate was terrible in 2009, when he walked twice in 60 plate appearances in his first action in the majors. Since 2009 it has been a lot better. In 2010 and 2011 combined, Mayberry walked in 27 of his 309 plate appearances, which is about 8.74%.
Over the last two year’s, Mayberry’s walk rate is already above his walk rate while in the minor leagues, so I’m not sure how much we should expect it to rise. It’s still just a tiny number of chances for Mayberry at the major league level, but in the chances he’s had he has hit the ball out of the yard with alarming frequency — both compared to the rest of baseball and compared to his own numbers in the minors.
This article from the Phillies web site says that Roy Oswalt is very interested in returning to the Phils. Sounds good to me.
This article suggests that Oswalt may be looking to skip the early part of the year and join a team around midseason.
Kevin Frandsen, who ruptured his Achillies in March, 2008, suggests it might take a year to a year and a half to fully recover from that injury in this article.
The same article linked above seems to suggest that Rich Dubee thinks that Jake Diekman has a better fastball than his fellow lefty Antonio Bastardo.
It also says that Justin De Fratus remains sidelined with a sore right elbow.
There’s not much about Utley’s ongoing issues with his right knee that sound very good.


February 24th, 2012 on 10:31 am
Nothing in the articles about Utley’s knee or Howard’s Achilles is surprising to me. Worrisome, yes. Amaro knew these things. And again, why is it that he didn’t locate another serious bat for the left side somewhere – like third base? Sigh. I just hope #26 and #6 are ok, and that this does not bite us in the butt this year.
I am looking for Mayberry to show he belongs everyday. Man, would that help.
February 24th, 2012 on 10:40 am
I think the key for Utley and Howard is how their health is during the last third of the season. Given their rotation, I think the Phils can stay near the top of the division even if Utley and Howard both see limited time in the first half of the year. In the long term, it’s going to be worth it to the Phils to have them stronger for fewer games at the end of the year.
I do think the offense has a pretty real problem with what to do at first base/left field against righties (and there will be a lot of them) with Howard out if Thome can’t play first. Brown in left against righties would help a lot — I think it’s likely he’s going to fare much better against righties this year than Nix, Mayberry or Wigginton.
February 24th, 2012 on 2:25 pm
Agreed. If we have any hope for significant post season play – and I haven’t much – Utley and Howard need to be there at the end. And be there strong. I think it is more realistic that Utley will be the guy we need him to be than it is for Howard. Utley’s pride is enormous and last year really pricked it; he’s also had a year to figure out his hurt and how to manage it. Howard’s Achillies is much more problematic. If Howard gets on the field before the Break, I’ll buy you a burger. if he gets 10 dingers by the end, I’ll buy you dinner.
February 24th, 2012 on 2:26 pm
I’d love to know who this third baseman is that Amaro was supposed to go get. I’m pretty sure there were none.
I can see a deadline deal for David Wright though.
February 24th, 2012 on 5:11 pm
Can’t remember his name right this second but there was a biggie available.
Lee is being sat out with a possible ab strain.
February 24th, 2012 on 5:16 pm
1. Aramis Ramirez. He’s only 33 and showed he can still swing the bat with authority in 2011, as he hit .306/.361/.510 with 26 homers and 93 RBI. He’s also not the butcher many believe he is at third base — though he’s not exactly Adrian Beltre, either. Ramirez is unlikely to have his option picked up by the Cubs, so it seems like he’ll have a new home for the first time since 2003, when he landed in Chicago on a July trade. As already stated, if someone wants to sign a good free agent third baseman, the buck stops here.
Potential teams: Marlins, Brewers, Tigers, Rockies, Angels, Orioles (mercifully making Mark Reynolds a DH) … and the Cubs are still possible
February 24th, 2012 on 8:37 pm
I would have been pretty happy to see the Phils get Ramirez. Given that this is probably the last year of Polanco and the Phils aren’t exactly bursting with in-house options, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Phillies pick up someone before the end of the year. It will also be interesting to see how much if ever Wigginton plays at third. Against lefties, when Howard is back playing first, I think it makes sense to give Wigginton some starts there instead of Polanco.
February 24th, 2012 on 9:35 pm
Ramirez would’ve been a pretty bad decision for a team trying to get younger. Amaro obviously valued the bullpen higher and signed Papelbon with the money available. Signing ARam for 4 years would’ve just weighed the team down with yet another horrible contract in two years when he could barely play.
A few things on ARam…look at his home/road splits from 2011. Pretty rough away from the Friendly Confines, and last I checked the Bank is not in Chicago. Oh, and yes, he is that bad at third. He had a range factor of about 2, where league average is about 2.5. What that means is about 1 in every 5 ground balls that the average third baseman got, he didn’t get to. Not that he made an error, he just didn’t get there. For reference, Polly has a range factor of 2.9.
Don’t get me wrong, he’s an offensive upgrade over Polanco, but a huge downgrade at defense and not worth the contract. The contract that they gave to Howard is forcing them to make some concessions elsewhere…yet another reason why that is such a horrible contract.
February 25th, 2012 on 9:14 am
Not sure I’m with you on that one. Getting younger might be a goal, but winning the World Series in 2012 should be the goal. Offense plus defense, I expect Ramirez will be better than Polanco in 2012.
February 26th, 2012 on 9:46 pm
Uh huh. The Phillies are built to win. Now. Amaro may talk about getting younger, but the future with this lineup is now.