In a previous post I pointed out that there are not many players over the last two seasons who have walked, gotten hits and especially hit home runs at the rate that John Mayberry has with the Phillies over the past two seasons. Another thing that Mayberry has done with the Phillies over the past two seasons is have a large percentage of his hits go for extra-bases while hitting for a relatively high average.
In 2010 and 2011 combined, Mayberry has gotten 309 plate appearances with the Phillies in which he has hit .276 (77-for-279). Of his 77 hits, 17 are doubles, one is a triple and he has hit 17 home runs. About 45.45% of his hits over the past two years have gone for extra-bases.
How many players in either league in 2011 meet all three of these criteria: Got 200 plate appearances, hit at least .276 and had 45.45% or more of the hits they did get go for extra-bases? Two.
| PA | AVG | % of hits XBH | |
| Mike Napoli | 432 | .320 | 46.6 |
| Matt Downs | 222 | .276 | 50.9 |
And in 2010? Four.
| PA | AVG | % of hits XBH | |
| Jayson Werth | 652 | .296 | 45.7 |
| Miguel Cabrera | 648 | .322 | 46.7 |
| Jim Thome | 340 | .283 | 55.1 |
| Jim Edmonds | 272 | .276 | 50.0 |
Again, like in the previous post, it’s the high percentage of extra-base hits that make this group so tough to get into.
| 2011 | 2010 | |
| % of players with 200 plate appearances who hit .276 or better | 29.6 | 32.4 |
| . . . who had at least 45.45% of their hits go for extra-bases | 6.8 | 8.4 |
In each of the last two years, more than a hundred players have hit better than .276 across both leagues. In both season less than 30 saw 45.45% or more of their hits go for extra-bases.
This article suggests that Mayberry will spend more time in left than at first base early in the year. Again, the critical question to me seems to be who the Phillies are going to play at first against right-handed pitching if Howard is out and Thome can’t play first. Again again, it seems to me the best choice offensively is to play Brown in left and Nix or Mayberry at first, assuming that the lefty Nix is probably the more conservative choice but that Mayberry might have higher upside. That seems unlikely to me to happen, so I think we should brace ourselves for a significant amount of Wigginton at first against righties early in the year.
Ryan Howard took batting practice and has no time table for his return. He also suggests he might not get to full-strength until around the All-Star break.
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February 23rd, 2012 on 12:25 pm
I think it’s telling, and bad news for Mayberry, that nobody who met either set of standards in 2010 also did so in 2011, or vice versa.
February 23rd, 2012 on 1:11 pm
Also that Mayberry himself isn’t on either list. 2011 is the only year when he got at least 200 plate appearances. That year he hit .279 but only about 45.2% of his hits went for extra-bases. Coming into 2011 he had 16 hits for his career and nine of them had gone for extra-bases.
February 23rd, 2012 on 2:23 pm
Mayberry starts in left in the All Star Game. Phillies sweep Series. Dom Brown hits .265 for the Iron Pigs; sets league record for errors by a left fielder.
February 23rd, 2012 on 2:48 pm
All sounds good to me. “Phils sweep the Series” leaves a lot of room for other things to go wrong. I’d even take Brown hitting .255.
February 23rd, 2012 on 6:38 pm
Amaaro is quoted as saying that he is satisfied with Brown’s progress and that Brown will be working on playing in center field in winter ball because he will be “given a shot” at replacing Victorino in 2013.
February 23rd, 2012 on 6:39 pm
I do actually have some compassion for the moving around Brown has suffered through. It has not been very kind to do to him what has been done.
February 23rd, 2012 on 8:15 pm
I’m going to be pretty happy if Brown proves capable of handling left field. Or right. Or first. DH, maybe.
I don’t really feel like Brown has been mistreated. You kinda need to be able to catch the ball if you’re going to play outfield.
February 23rd, 2012 on 10:15 pm
My copy of Baseball America just came today. The Phillies have only one prospect in BA’s Top 100 list. That likely is not a good thing, huh.
February 24th, 2012 on 9:32 am
At least Trevor May made it at 69.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/2012/2612998.html
On the Baseball Prospectus top 101 list the Phils had two. May at 51 and Jesse Biddle at 84.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=16020
I don’t really have a ton of optimism about the minor league system at this point. Still hoping for the best on Brown, though.